Read the OP three times and still don't understand what is being said.
He's saying Bitcoin is finished. Right, that's pretty much the only thing I could make out of that fog of bragging, dogecoin and incoherent comparisons without further justification  |
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Read the OP three times and still don't understand what is being said.
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If there was any question that Vitalik Buterin doesn't understand Bitcoin, here it is: The reason why having a fixed never-growing supply is undesirable is obvious: it encourages wealth concentration and creates a static community of holders without an effective way for new people to get in, and it means that the coin has no way to incentive any specific kind of activity in the long term. http://blog.ethereum.org/2014/05/24/on-long-term-cryptocurrency-distribution-models/Kinda sad really. These techy kids are often completely out of touch with how things work in the real world.. |
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The willly story would also explain why the coinlab deal fell through. Mtgox didn't provide access to its userbase to coinlab as was agreed on. When they made that deal, Mark probably thought he would still be able to fix things and there was no willy yet. He must've been worried that coinlab would find out about his little secret.
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I guess that guy has too much money and wants to sell his coins cheap. Very altruistic of him. Just like that guy 2 days ago who dumped 600 coins while we were going up. Very nice guy.
It's probably newbs abusing the leverage of bitfinex. |
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I am shorting on bitfinex @529/530 closing all longs.
I think this is a fake break out..
Lets see..
Keep on gambling, it makes the market liquid and in play  |
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Depending on what large is, you could also look into hitbtc. They seem to have a decent amount of liquidity, their fees are not that high, and they're currently trading above the bitstamp price.
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The mini wall was bought!
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lol, that predictor is such a monumental failure
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I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days. Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts: Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain: 2011: - 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2 - GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery - another flashcrash to $2.2014: - 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340 - GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery - ?(to be found out in 7 days....  ) I'd like to bet against your call, interested? |
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Sell the news ! While all news and publicity is good, this particular piece isnt too bullish as its just more money invested in a service thats in the business of converting BTC to Fiat. which requires btc. think it through, people. sheesh. The narrative that people will spend their btc and therefore btc price will fall is becoming real old now.. Bears are just looking for a cue to sell to try to get the market lower. So far the 1k sell at bitstamp has had very little effect, which shows imo that the downward cycle is coming to an end. |
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Anyone aware of a hedge fund (filed with SEC) trading BTC for profit? It seems that the handful of existing funds are acting as price exposure for investors.
Anyone aware of any BTC liquidity providers? Not sure if this is a useful answer to you, but it seems to me that the mysterious exchange hitbtc.com has a liquidity provider on board. Could be hitbtc itself or some external business. |
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i read that S§P500 is using NN so there must be a way of making at least a little bit precise predictions with NN.
The S&P500 is just an index that tracks the valuation of a basket of stocks. |
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Neural networks are not a generic tool. There are TONS of ways that they can be structured and trained, much of which would require designing and understanding a neural network on your own (like I have done) instead of using a library. lol you just contradicted yourself |
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I think the belief whether markets are predictable or not can be seen as a litmus test for traders. It takes experience to understand that you cannot predict liquid markets, sorry K128kevin2. I also trained a neural network when I first started trading. Of course it didn't make me any money at all, all it did was lose because of the commissions paid..
Did you write one or you used someone elses? I read some research papers too and certain NN structures combined with other modules had 70%-80% accuracy, one team claimed to achieve 91% but did not disclose any details (because it was either fake or they wrote great system and kept it secret for themselves). Markets are neither random walk or logical is what i understood from materials i have read. If one could combine the right factors and systems, i believe it can at the least increase noobs trading success (say, 6-7 instead of 4-5 successful trades out of 10). Depends what variables was your NN using, what did it count as important factor, networks structure etc... It was based on some python library, neural networks are pretty much a generic tool so I don't think it really matters which implementation you choose. This guy explains the problems with overfitting really well: https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/the-skinny-on-options-math/episodes/11152. Obviously neural networks are the prime candidate for overfit. |
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Isn't that just a thesis paper? The guy describes how to apply ANN to price prediction and concludes that its fairly accurate. But nowhere in the paper he gives evidence
I looked on your site where you compare 24h results compared to actual price and none of the data points were exact. Most of your predictions were below the actual price. Only one or two times you got it right. How can you claim that you predicted anything?
More importantly how can someone make money trading this info?
Read the paper again, they describe experiments that they ran to predict stock prices on a data set. If this study doesn't satisfy you just choose one of the dozens of others on the same subject. You really expected the predicted prices to be EXACTLY correct? I never claimed this to be true and, in fact, the average margin of error implies that the exact opposite is the case. I've never claimed that you can make money predicting with the data on my website, nor have I claimed that it is always accurate. I've explicitly said multiple times (and on the website itself) that I don't know whether or not you could make money trading based on this model, and that the predictions are not always right. I really don't know what point you are trying to argue here (not that this is even an argument). I've explained to you why you are wrong about prices being unpredictable and I've explained to you why we know with certainty that there are patterns in the data. It seems like you are just trying to argue about my site for the sake of arguing yet you don't really have any points, so I don't know what you are doing here. You haven't shown prices are predictable. Nobody has. If somebody could do this theyd win a Nobel Prize I think the belief whether markets are predictable or not can be seen as a litmus test for traders. It takes experience to understand that you cannot predict liquid markets, sorry K128kevin2. I also trained a neural network when I first started trading. Of course it didn't make me any money at all, all it did was lose because of the commissions paid.. |
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When I take my 3 month break from bitcoin trading and come back, I bet it'll be exactly $445
Please do |
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Thanks for posting your analyses Lucano! They are balanced and therefore useful.
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Ta is good at predicting the way things move under opposing forces and analyzing the raw data of supply and demand. I can sit here and try to predict how a fundamental should affect the price, when a fundamental will affect the price, and how much of the price is due to fundamentals, but I will likely be way off, and trading just the price will be much more effective.
In addition, probably because it is such a new, small and free market, bitcoin acts very predictably once you recognize the patterns. Unlike the dow, where you are trading against high velocity trading bots, market makers and unseen forces creating supply and demand, with bitcoin, you can actually study it enough to see how it acts. It almost acts often like all the traders are in agreement - that is how predictable it is compared to other markets. I have started to observe it daily only since January this year, but so far I am surprised how repetitive this market seems to be. On the other hand, I am still afraid to trust this pattern completely, it can lull us into a false security, and then it can suddenly break, for whatever reason  Exactly. And then you try to be patient and wait for the price to come back down and it doesn't.. then finally at $600 you capitulate and buy which happens to be the top |
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LOL OK, this is the volume i'm talking about.. Really not smoking or shooting anyhrting! ;-)  wtf your hallucinations are becoming RL bitcoin will SORE!!!!!!!!!!!! Hammer on high volume!!! |
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