Ein neues Spiel auf der Xaya-Plattform steht zum Testen und bug hunting bereit. Entwickelt wurde das Ganze von Mud Hero Studios, was ein kleines Indie Projekt ist.

Isles of War



Zu gewinnen gibt es nichts, allerdings bekommt man in-game Währung und Ressourcen umsonst. Dafür muss man lediglich den Jungs im Discord Bescheid sagen. Sie sind sehr freundlich und hilfsbereit und für jedes Feedback dankbar: Discord Mud Hero Studios

It wasn’t a single bet, but an array of bets against one cyclist. I have tried to delete all memories about this day and I am no encyclopedia when it comes to sports results, but I think it was the 11th stage of the Tour de France in 2009. It was quite an easy stage, so a sprint finish was expected. No easy flat sprint though, but an uphill sprint.

Mark Cavendish was the worlds best sprinter back then and had been quite dominant in that years edition of the Tour de France as well. But he was never a good uphill sprinter. He was by far the fastest on flat finishes, but there were better sprinters out there, when the road was ascending towards the finish line.

To the surprise of my fellow punters and me, the bookmakers made Cavendish the overwhelming favourite to win this stage and we couldn’t believe our eyes. For us it would have been a great result, if he finished inside the Top5. We tried to find the reason, why the bookmakers thought that way. The published profiles for a stage often lie a bit, so we spend hours to check out, what kind of finish this is in the end. We discussed for hours and hours, checked google street view, made our own calculations about gradients etc.. In the end, we decided that the bookmakers and the market are dead wrong on this one.

So we placed all kind of bets against Cavendish. We bet against a win of him, we bet against him finishing in Top3, we bet every H2H there was against him. All with big stakes.

The stage itself was pretty boring and everything was lined up for the expected mass sprint. When the road started going upwards shortly before the finish, we held our breath, waiting for Cavendish to get distanced from the head of the peloton. But he wouldn’t go away. And it got even worse. Not only wouldn’t he fade, but he moved up to the front to start his sprint. And the inevitable happened – he won that stage to our disbelief.


https://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=12917

We also placed bets on Hushovd to win, Hushovd to finish Top3 and some H2H on him, since he was a fabulous uphill sprinter with smallish gradients from 4% to 6%. He was a pretty big and massive guy, but he had the raw power in his legs to master these kind of finishes. But he wasn’t good that day too and all those bets lost as well.

I still think the bets against Cavendish had some value, but we massively overstaked on that one and were rightfully punished for that. Cavendish had fantastic legs that day and you always have to take those things into account as well - but we were blind just thinking about all the money we would make on this day. It turned out to be a terrible day instead

I think the UEFA country coefficients reflect the strengths quite accurate.


https://de.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/country/#/yr/2020

Spain has some huge lead, but they will lose the points from 15/16 and 16/17 in the next years and most likely be overtaken by England then, which seems about right. Bundesliga and Seria A I would rate quite even with two competitive teams each (Bayern+Dortmund, Juventus+Napoli), but Ligue 1 is a lot weaker compared to these two, they only have PSG.

For CL knockout phase we have:

4x England, Spain
3x Germany, Italy
2x France


Yes, Bayern has always done that and will keep doing so. Bayern is not able to get the very big stars; those want to play in England/Spain and also will get more money there. So Bayern always tries to get the best players from their Bundesliga opponents, since these themselves are not able to keep these players, when Bayern knocks on the door. For most players in Bundesliga it's still an honour to play for Bayern and you are guaranteed a title (championship or cup) every year. Bayern will most likely buy Havertz from Leverkusen next and this will weaken Leverkusen again. Havertz will then play a few years for Bayern before going to one of the big clubs in England/Spain.

Shit happens

You still have these two ungraded picks, what about those ?

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I am not a fan of criticizing too much right from the start, but give people more time to prove themselves. What I observed though, is, that you bet in a lot of different leagues (Egypt, UAE, Spain, Germany, Brazil, Italy, France, Argentina, Hungary) and I doubt that you know these leagues inside out. From my experience it's not very sustainable to bet on a lot of leagues where you know a bit of everything, but rather concentrate on a few leagues and specialize there. But maybe you are able to do it this way, lets see.

And then I don't like this overstaking (the Lyon over 0.5 bets), which very much looks like chasing losses. 10/10 should really the max bet and reserved for very valuables ones. Staking 20/10 should maybe happen once in a year and not on an over in a big league then. Very rarely there is huge value in overs, let alone in big leagues.

Bundesliga is by far my favourite league, but I am biased of course, since I grew up with it. It's not always the goals or spectacle though that makes a league attractive, good or bad. If it was, some division 8 league would be the winner, since they score like crazy in these leagues

What makes the Bundesliga very interesting, is of course some good amount of goals on average, but also all the modern stadiums, that are sold out more often than not and the atmosphere. You have very colourful stands with flags, banners and some pyrotechnics (I like them). There are always chants to be heard and every team has lots fans that support their heroes on away games, which often leads to very hostile environments all in all.

Quality-wise Bundesliga is of course still lacking behind EPL and La Liga, but I don't see the gap getting bigger, but remaining stable more or less. You have the powerhouse of Bayern, who are regular visitors to CL quarterfinals and who are the most healthy club in Europe financially. They keep on refusing to play the big-money-game, but if they did, they would surely be Top4 in Europe. Dortmund is doing very good in CL always too and we can expect a lot from Leipzig in the coming years. Frankfurt has been a very successful ambassador of german football in the EL. Teams like Leverkusen, Wolfsburg, Schalke normally don't care too much with playing EL and for CL they are too weak then again. Bundesliga is the bread and butter for them and once eliminated from CL group stages, they don't bother that much about EL games. EL is too big for my liking nowadays anyway and always messes with your schedule. Long travels to play unattractive opponents on a Thursday evening, when there is Bundesliga again on the weekend. And financially it only pays off at the very late stages.

The reason why german clubs and the league are a bit back quality-wise, is the relative low income from broadcasting rights and general more sound management of their funds. They don't take big loans to buy players, but rather just spend, what they earn. A healthy approach, but you are not able to throw around money this way, like f.e. the EPL teams do (and overpay). So the big stars will always choose to play where the big money is (England, Spain, Juve, PSG) and Germany is kind of a development league for these leagues/clubs.

Most of the people are probably not familiar with betting/trading on betting exchanges, so I will post some explanatory things, to maybe change that, since exchanges offer great possibilities. If Betfair is not available in your country, you can play at white label exchanges via an agent and with most agents, you can deposit crypto too. You will always play in Euro/USD at the exchanges though.

The big advantage with exchanges is, that you are not only able to place back bets (this is the same as with traditional bookmakers), but you can also place lay bets, which is then betting AGAINST an outcome.

But lets look at back bets first. We have the ManCity – West Ham market for tomorrows game.



The blue fields, and everything that is left hand from them, are odds that are offered for City/West Ham/Draw to win, just like at a normal bookmaker. Lets say I want to bet on City to win:



I am clicking on the blue field for City win. Top right you can enter your stake for that bet and then check on the very left, what would happen for each outcome. After all looks good, I just click on “Place bets” and my order is submitted.

Once the game is finished, the market gets suspended and settled afterwards and you will get your winnings, if you won your bet of course. You will have to pay some commission on your net winnings in a market, but we will talk about that in another post.

I will post some more stuff here in the future. I will try to keep it simple for the start, but if you have any questions or remarks, just ask/post.

Ist ein kleines Feld in deinem Wettschein, dass du anklicken kannst und dann eine bessere Quote bekommst. Eine 2,0 wird dann z.B. zu einer 2,1. Siehe hier.

Hatte ihn immer gehabt, aber nun ist er seit einiger Zeit gone awol. Und ich bin mir nicht sicher, ob das nur bei mir so ist, oder generell bei deutschen Kunden. Irgendwann vor einiger Zeit hat Sportsbet imo generell den Quotenschlüssel für deutschen Kunden gesenkt und den Preisboost entfernt. Aber da ich auch von Nicht-GER-Kunden weiss, die auch keinen Preisboost mehr haben, kann es auch eine konto-individuelle Sache sein.

Yes, late registration will be available for some time and password will be posted in this thread for anyone interested to join.

I have added CoinEraser, rhomelmabini and iv4n to the list. You can maybe just add a link to my post in first post @efialtis and I will keep the list updated then.

It is indeed. In general there is lots of great videos surrounding the NFL. Every year I can't wait for the America's Game episode, where the season of the SB Champion is recapped and 3 players get to tell their stories and views. Hard Knocks is a great and very insightful series to watch about what is happening in offseason. I was hoping for the Giants to be covered in the 2019 edition, but it was the Raiders. This year the Giants aren't eligible, because of a first-year HC (Steelers, Lions, Jaguars, Cardinals, Broncos are eligible - hoping for Cardinals).

The NFL, and all major sports in the US, is doing a great job in presenting their league and catch a lot of people with it. Compared to that, the way our beloved Bundesliga is presented, is just pathetic.

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As for the microphones, they have been in the shoulderpads near the collarbone for the last seasons, but they have gotten so tiny by now, that you might be able to fit everything into the helmet without any issues to be caused. Some nice read about it in general: https://www.sportsnet.ca/football/nfl/how-we-hear-sounds-of-the-game/

Poker is just so much about strategy, psychology, reading your opponent, being scared. And as mentioned you can quite easily manipulate the thinking of your opponents by doing certain things. This might even include some intentional donk plays, that don't cost that much, but which might yield you lots of chips at a later stage; people don't forget that easily.

I actually thought about putting a little piece of paper on my screen to cover the hands I am getting dealt. Then just play a tournament or sit&go blindly, only analyzing what the others do and reacting accordingly. You will most likely lose, but it's maybe a good way to improve your strategic game and the ability to read your opponents.

Tourney is played at Sportsbet, so they have the funds Anybody can join, the password will be posted in here, so # of players is unknown, but I would think maybe ~25 next time. Tournament structure can be found here (at least it was like that last time). Sportsbet might ask you for KYC, there seems to be no stringent line who they kyc and who not.

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I am generally fine with 6pm on Sundays, but could only join 16th and not 23rd this time.

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@efialtis

Could you put this table in the first post (and update regularly ) ? Makes it easier to know who is who at the tables and easier to find, when in first post.

Those are the names I found going through the thread:

Bitcointalk Name	Sportsbet Poker Name	SwC Poker Name
_________________________	_________________________	_________________________
AlexSimion	AlexSimion
Betwrong	Betwrong	Betwrong
buwaytress	sojourner
CoinEraser	CoinEraser	CoinEraser
cygan	cygan
efialtis	efialtis
figmentofmyass	FOMA888
iv4n	iv4n
manchester93		NEpats93
mitchr4	mitchr
rhomelmabini	K1R1TO	K1R1T0
Steamtyme	Steamtyme
SyGambler	Romanista
tyKiwanuka	EnterScreenName

When you say this.....


.....and I am taking a look at for example the Biathlon markets, I can find H2H bets among others at Bet365, but in your site I only see outright bets (or I am too dumb to find the other bets). And also in Basketball you have fewer markets/leagues than Bet365. So what does it mean "same matches as Bet365" ?

Do you also offer system bets or just parlays ?

I like the design and will monitor the happenings around your site and experiences from fellow punters who give it a try. Good luck.

20 Posts in gambling ist schon hart. Wenn man keine Ahnung/Interesse hat und dazu noch eine eventuell vorhandene Sprachbarriere nimmt, kann es sehr schnell shitty und spammy werden. Ob das einen BM nun interessiert oder nicht, sei mal dahingestellt, Hauptsache Signatur und Avatar sind im Bild

Die vielen BTC-Kampagnen von Glücksspielfirmen zeigen halt auch, in welchem Bereich BTC sehr viel Anwendung findet - unreguliert trifft auf unreguliert. Und wie unser aller Alptraum^^ schon vorher geschrieben hat, wollen diese Glücksspielfirmen natürlich eine gewisse Präsenz im Gambling-Bereich haben, um neue Kunden zu gewinnen. Bringt ja nicht so viel, wenn die Werbung nicht auch da ist, wo sich Glücksspiel-affine Leute gerne rumtreiben.

Dem Gambling Bereich an sich tun diese ganzen Zwangsposts sicher nicht gut und sie ersticken oft interessante Diskussionen oder lassen eigentlich interessante Fragestellungen oder Ansätze vom OP in eine belanglose Folge von diversen Shitposts abgleiten. Zu den Zuständen in den Altcoin boards ist es noch ein bisschen, aber schlimmer geht immer.

Nicely spotted and easy win. For me this was a very under-ish match. Dresden found some defensive stability with their new coach (who often lets his teams play defensive-minded) and held their opponents scoreless in the last two. And Darmstadt isn't the team to go all out offensively like there is no tomorrow. In away games they often try to just defend the 0-0 and look for a late counter-attack. But looks like Dresden is back to their old poorish showings.


From which site is this taken ?

As I said before, you should be comfortable with what you are doing. For some this is betting, for others poker. Playing dice, slots is ok too, but don't expect to come out on top there. Do it for fun and don't invest too much money there.


You always learn more from the lows than you do from the highs of course. Mistakes and failure are necessary ingredients to move forward. There is no shame in making mistakes - the only mistake is not learning from them and doing it better next time. Being succesful in pro gambling is a skill which has to be developed over time.

A favourite quote of mine, which tennis player Stan Wawrinka also has tatooed on his forearm, from Samuel Beckett:

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I can only talk about the legal situation and laws here in Germany, but it's the same for many countries. Online betting is still a grey area and often times very un-regulated market (which is good and bad).

German government always puts up some strange laws. They say they want to protect the players. On the one hand, players should not run easily into gambling addiction and on the other hand they should be protected against scam (books, casinos). What they really want is taxes. Gambling is a huge market, so Angela & Co try to milk that market tax-wise, smoke screening it with player protection.

So the first thing that happened some years ago, was, that german customers weren't able to register with quite some bookies anymore. Existing german customers were kicked out, because the bookmaker didn't want to take any legal risks by letting german customers play at their sites. This was a blow, because being active mostly in niche/small markets requires a good variety of bookmakers to shop for odds and to bet on all the offers each bookmakers provides. In a game of football, the matchup is clear: Team A against Team B. In a cycling race for example, you have 160+ riders and can make gazillion of H2H. Rider A against rider S, rider W against rider Z and so on. And back in the days, a lot of bookies made their own H2H and compiled odds for them. So, I could maybe bet on rider W to beat rider Z only at one particular bookie. And as a resident of Germany I was excluded from playing at a lot of these books.

Then some time later, the german government introduced a 5% bet tax. This means, that german customers, get taxed 5% on the net win for each bet. The bookmakers would collect those taxes and send it to german tax authorities (I doubt any of those bookies ever did, it was just additional money for them). So when you are operating with a 5% yield, 5% taxes are a lot. Odds of 2.00 suddenly became odds of 1.95 (after taxes) - looks small, but makes a huge difference longterm. Nearly all european softbooks truckled and introduced that tax for their german customers. So I lost nearly all european books over night.

The latest law, which will be passed at some point later this year, will introduce a 1000,- Euro deposit (!) limit per month per user over all (!) bookmakers. There will be a big database, where all bookmakers are forced to put their customers data, betting amounts, deposit amounts, winnings etc. in. All for player protection of course
This new law is totally bs and just shows what idiots are at work there. A) Recreational/fun bettors won't reach that 1000,- Euro limit B) Addicted gamblers will always find a way to feed their addiction C) Pro gamblers bet via agents anyway, only agent knows identity, bookmakers has no clue who that customer is. So I think, that law will have no negative impact on me, but you get what I mean, when I say "bullying from authorities".  

And then you are always in danger of getting on the radar of authorities. Betting/poker are considered games of luck in Germany and thus are not taxable, gross profit = net profit. There weren't any pro bettors yet that were sued by authorities, but one poker player (there might be more, but I only know this case). Authorities sued him to pay taxes on his poker winnings, because they said, he is a commercial player and makes a business out of it, so no game of luck anymore.  
All the madness, dumbness and ignorance showed up, when they calculated what he owed the state. This player was a good live poker player, but also played a bit online afaik. Prize money winners from poker tourneys can be found in the internet and there is some databases. Authoritites added all his prize money and said, ok, you have won this and this and will have to pay like 50% taxes on that. They didn't take into account, that in most poker tourneys you will win nothing, but pay (huge) buy-ins. So, if they count his winnings, they should also set it off with all the buy-ins he has lost. But they didn't. The amount he was due he was not able to pay, it was more money than he had. I think he is still busy paying those taxes, but at least he can now also tax his losses and will get some taxes back that way. And from his own statements, he is a losing player in the end, but had some big cashes during his career.

Superbowl Promo war ein einziges Desaster für mich - nur 4/15 richtig, dabei war ich nach dem gewonnenen coin toss von SF ziemlich zuversichtlich Hatte alles sehr KC-lastig getippt, aber die hatten sich entschieden nur Q4 mitzuspielen.

Von daher gut, dass die Multi Promo für Fussball wieder da ist. Da bin ich etwas besser, aber ausser Spesen bisher auch nichts gewesen.

Hab folgendes abgegeben:

Roma - Bologna
Everton - Crystal Palace
Fiorentina - Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio X
Getafe - Valencia
Brighton & Hove Albion FC - Watford FC
Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund
Hellas Verona - Juventus
FC Porto - SL Benfica
Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao
Genoa - Cagliari X
Borussia M'gladbach - 1. FC Köln
Bayern München - RB Leipzig
Celta Vigo - Sevilla X
Inter - Milan
Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Lyonnais

Sollte sich alles so ausgehen


Hast du einen Preisboost button ?

Brighton was around 1.20, Everton was around 1.60, Wolves 1.30, Sheffield 1.30 too, so would even be some more profit. These are all closing lines though, but those odds against Wolves&Sheffield might have been up there some days before kick-off as well.

There are always some teams in every league every year that are profitable to bet on every game. The markets often take some time to adjust accordingly, because they believe this is just some run of good form and are not sold on this lasting for a whole season (or a very long stretch). I wouldn't dare to say that Liverpool is overperforming, but it's insane what they are doing this season.

Otoh there is also teams that underperform like crazy and you will lose a fortune betting on them regularly, hoping they will be able to turn things around. Sometimes things are just not clicking and it's hard to find a way out of that hole you digged yourself.

For sportsbetting I wouldn't recommend any books, don't waste your time reading such books - all information can be found in the internet. The two big cornerstones of value and money management are not very extensive in the end. If I tell you, that in a coin flip with odds of 1,90 - 2,10 you should always bet on the 2,10, that is all you need to know about value, the rest you have to figure out yourself in your niche. No book can/will help you with that.

In general, reading is quite important for sportsbetting, but I would rather regularly check websites, blogs, forums etc. to learn about certain sports. If you desperately want to read a book, I would go with autobiographies to learn some dynamics about a certain sport. Since you are an NFL fan, you could for example read a book from or about Bill Belichick and extract some valuable things for your betting there (maybe). If not, it should still be an interesting read and not a waste of time.

For everything else that is needed, some books about psychology or mental strength would be the better choice.

For Poker things are different, because there is so many angles and mathematical approaches to play certain hands. There is a lot consider (position play, stack size) and you not only have to judge your own hand, but also the hands of your opponents. So theory wise, Poker is way more demanding compared to betting. There is a lot of good poker books for every stage of your poker career (beginner, advanced, semi-pro), but I can't recommend any. You could probably ask in the hand discussion thread here in this board.

For all other gambling games you don't need to read a book. You will lose wether you have read thousands of books or not


Hehe, I guess never I am a pretty poor pre-match punter these days and those threads only function with such kind of bets. So it would probably end in an embarrasing disaster and lots of people losing money. I have some good pre-match bets from time to time, but followers would want daily picks. There is also lots of added pressure, if you post your picks publicly.

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For me it definitely is, but other people might hate it. It's not for anyone.

Don't underestimate, what a job/occupation/hobby that you burn for, can give you. I am really looking forward to every working day and all the joy and freedom this job gives me outweigh the negatives by miles. There is not a lot of jobs, where you are so excited to start the day, that you get up 3 hours before you actually should or are supposed to. I never saw an employee in a "normal" job, saying on a Sunday morning: "Oh, I am in such a mood to work, I will go to the office now." Never heard anyone say that or do that. Those people can't wait to finish their work for the day. They are living for the weekends (because that is the time, where they don't have to work). They are sad, when their vacation is over and they have get back to work; next vacation is months away. I can't wait to get to work and am always a bit sad, when there is nothing to bet on on a given day.


It certainly looks/reads like that But it's not like that, the list reads a bit "too hard". The 24/7 duty has gotten way better in recent years, because I am way more selective with my bets nowadays and switched to live-betting mostly (and don't prepare a lot other than watching my sports regularly). So today for example, I am just waiting to watch some football in the evening and am not "on duty" until then.

There is financial pressure, yes, but I know a lot of people in normal jobs, that have that pressure as well - and their job is not giving them any joy nor freedom (see above). They are imprisoned in some system and contracts and are barely able to survive.

Sport events mostly take place while other people have free time. This is logical, because the events need to generate some income from spectators. So these events have to take place, when the majority is not working (weekends, evenings). And this is the time, when I have to work then, while other people don't have to. In recent years I was often invited to some party, watching football together, just sitting together and having some beer, and this was of course scheduled on a Friday or Saturday evening. When I said, I won't come, because I have to work, very often I would hear something like this: "Huh ? Why do you have to work ? What is going on at that time ?" This always annoyed me, because it showed ignorance towards me and my job. Now I can't demand some birthday party to be held on a Monday morning, where I don't have to work. I was just asking to show some awareness and understanding what my job is about. I often skipped work due to attending parties, weddings and all those things. The times I didn't attend, I would always get ignorant questions about it. And it's not that hard to understand, if you cared just a little bit

I work most of the time alone (well, are you ever alone in internet ? People socialize a lot through the internet nowadays), but there is a huge difference about being alone and being lonely. I am not lonely, I have family and lots of friends and can look for company, whenever I want to. I am no nerd sitting in front of the computer and not wanting and not being able to get in touch with real life. Life has digitalized a lot in recent years and so did mine too. People see working also as some kind of socializing, but I can do without all these perforced friendships you have at work. I enjoy being alone doing my stuff without a boss and people to explain myself and report to, but I don't have to be alone. Being able to enjoy yourself alone is great, being forced to be alone is bad.

I don't let myself get pressured with other peoples opinion about how I should live my life. I live my life the way I want to and will happily invite everyone to be part of my life. If you are being ignorant and show no interest though - there is a door. I am always very interested in other peoples life and their stories, took a lot of time to listen and help whereever I was able to and I expect people around me to do the same to me. Give and take.

I put the list of disadvantages up, to show that not everything is shiny with being a professional gambler. Because, apart from the misconception that every pro gambler is rich, most people have the illusion that this is an utterly fancy world like some Hollywood movie. As I said multiple times, it's a normal job in the end - a very rare one and also one that not everyone is able and willing to do. I wouldn't recommend doing such a job, but for me and my life it's the perfect fit.

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I will put up a post about bullying from authorities later today or tomorrow.

Found two interesting tweets regarding that:


https://twitter.com/JoshDubowAP/status/1224166349037088768

(Shanahan was OC with the Falcons in SB LI against the Patriots)

It's a small sample size of course, but maybe you have a point here and he should re-think his 4th quarter approach with big-ish leads in big games against very good teams.

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https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1224163441335832577

I just watched the replay and KC wasn't able to convert 3rd&14 with 1:47 on the clock before halftime. SF decided not to take a TO, though they still had all three. They then got the ball with 0:59 and 3 TO left instead and chose to run it two times (0:19 left). They converted 3rd&5 and had a 22yd gain with a pass to Wilson; ball at own 45yd line (0:14 left). Then that bomb to Kittle, but he was caught with offensive PI (0:06 left). Garoppolo just took a knee then.

They should have just taken a TO when KC failed to convert that 3rd down and would have started the drive with around 1:40 and 2 TO left. Even John Lynch was signalling TO from the stands, but Shanahan didn't call one.

They got the ball for second half, so I can understand the thinking of Shanahan a bit, but against such a high-powered offense like KC has, you better try to get every point you can and don't waste any opportunity to do so.

Looks like you guys ran out of questions So I will ask myself some questions, that I think are important and/or of interest.


Straightforward answer: I can’t.

The assumption for a a bet Is always that a game/match/race is played a million+ times under the same circumstances and you have to judge what is the probability of each outcome. Now in sports a match can’t be played under the same circumstances a million times. Circumstances include everything that can influence the outcome of a match. This groes from form, suspended and injured players, motivation to things like weather, spectator riots, tiredness or the star player going through a divorce.
All these things considered leads to the odds being  published and probably adjusted by the market, if the market thinks differently. But we will only play that one game under these exact circumstances. If there was the exact same matchup a day later, lots of circumstances might have changed.

Lets assume the odds reflect a possibility of 80%/13%/7% for 1X2 in football. Now you yourself have some good insight and think home win has 85% and place a bet accordingly. The home team loses and you lose your bet. A lot of people would now think, that the bet didn’t have any value, because it lost - but they are wrong. Your 85% for home win also included maybe 10% for draw and 5% for away win and thus it’s normal for these probabilities to come real too. Bad luck. But if this game is played another 99 times under the same circumstances, you could see a home win 60 times in a row then for example and after 100 games you could have seen 85 home wins, 10 draws and 7 away wins. But you will never know, since this game is only played once under these circumstances.

So, for a single bet, you will never know, if it actually carried value or not. The only thing you can do, is, to see if you are able to play valuable bets on a regular basis. And this is pretty easy  to judge. If you played 500 or 1000 bets and have made a profit, you are able to spot and play valuable bets. Over a big enough sample size, the luck factor is eliminated and the outcomes should more or less reflect the probabilities.