[AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler

[tyKiwanuka]

@tyKiwanuka. What are your best recommendations for books to read to become a better gambler on sportsbetting and other gambling games?

For sportsbetting I wouldn't recommend any books, don't waste your time reading such books - all information can be found in the internet. The two big cornerstones of value and money management are not very extensive in the end. If I tell you, that in a coin flip with odds of 1,90 - 2,10 you should always bet on the 2,10, that is all you need to know about value, the rest you have to figure out yourself in your niche. No book can/will help you with that.

In general, reading is quite important for sportsbetting, but I would rather regularly check websites, blogs, forums etc. to learn about certain sports. If you desperately want to read a book, I would go with autobiographies to learn some dynamics about a certain sport. Since you are an NFL fan, you could for example read a book from or about Bill Belichick and extract some valuable things for your betting there (maybe). If not, it should still be an interesting read and not a waste of time.

For everything else that is needed, some books about psychology or mental strength would be the better choice.

For Poker things are different, because there is so many angles and mathematical approaches to play certain hands. There is a lot consider (position play, stack size) and you not only have to judge your own hand, but also the hands of your opponents. So theory wise, Poker is way more demanding compared to betting. There is a lot of good poker books for every stage of your poker career (beginner, advanced, semi-pro), but I can't recommend any. You could probably ask in the hand discussion thread here in this board.

For all other gambling games you don't need to read a book. You will lose wether you have read thousands of books or not

Also, when will you start your own tipster thread hehehe?

Hehe, I guess never I am a pretty poor pre-match punter these days and those threads only function with such kind of bets. So it would probably end in an embarrasing disaster and lots of people losing money. I have some good pre-match bets from time to time, but followers would want daily picks. There is also lots of added pressure, if you post your picks publicly.

The list is surprisingly long. And what's on the other end of the seesaw? Is it only this:

But this is my job now, I love to do it, I am happy with it and can't think of any other job, that would give me such joy (and freedom).

Is it therefore worth it?

For me it definitely is, but other people might hate it. It's not for anyone.

Don't underestimate, what a job/occupation/hobby that you burn for, can give you. I am really looking forward to every working day and all the joy and freedom this job gives me outweigh the negatives by miles. There is not a lot of jobs, where you are so excited to start the day, that you get up 3 hours before you actually should or are supposed to. I never saw an employee in a "normal" job, saying on a Sunday morning: "Oh, I am in such a mood to work, I will go to the office now." Never heard anyone say that or do that. Those people can't wait to finish their work for the day. They are living for the weekends (because that is the time, where they don't have to work). They are sad, when their vacation is over and they have get back to work; next vacation is months away. I can't wait to get to work and am always a bit sad, when there is nothing to bet on on a given day.

Based on the list of disadvantages, I feel that you are constantly pressured not just mentally but also socially, financially, and even emotionally. You're living on a financial edge and seem alone and lonely in your 24/7 duty because friends and family are ignorant about what you are doing. I hope I'm wrong but that's what this list evoke in me. How could you even share your joy in winning a game when the other people around you are clueless?

It certainly looks/reads like that But it's not like that, the list reads a bit "too hard". The 24/7 duty has gotten way better in recent years, because I am way more selective with my bets nowadays and switched to live-betting mostly (and don't prepare a lot other than watching my sports regularly). So today for example, I am just waiting to watch some football in the evening and am not "on duty" until then.

There is financial pressure, yes, but I know a lot of people in normal jobs, that have that pressure as well - and their job is not giving them any joy nor freedom (see above). They are imprisoned in some system and contracts and are barely able to survive.

Sport events mostly take place while other people have free time. This is logical, because the events need to generate some income from spectators. So these events have to take place, when the majority is not working (weekends, evenings). And this is the time, when I have to work then, while other people don't have to. In recent years I was often invited to some party, watching football together, just sitting together and having some beer, and this was of course scheduled on a Friday or Saturday evening. When I said, I won't come, because I have to work, very often I would hear something like this: "Huh ? Why do you have to work ? What is going on at that time ?" This always annoyed me, because it showed ignorance towards me and my job. Now I can't demand some birthday party to be held on a Monday morning, where I don't have to work. I was just asking to show some awareness and understanding what my job is about. I often skipped work due to attending parties, weddings and all those things. The times I didn't attend, I would always get ignorant questions about it. And it's not that hard to understand, if you cared just a little bit

I work most of the time alone (well, are you ever alone in internet ? People socialize a lot through the internet nowadays), but there is a huge difference about being alone and being lonely. I am not lonely, I have family and lots of friends and can look for company, whenever I want to. I am no nerd sitting in front of the computer and not wanting and not being able to get in touch with real life. Life has digitalized a lot in recent years and so did mine too. People see working also as some kind of socializing, but I can do without all these perforced friendships you have at work. I enjoy being alone doing my stuff without a boss and people to explain myself and report to, but I don't have to be alone. Being able to enjoy yourself alone is great, being forced to be alone is bad.

I don't let myself get pressured with other peoples opinion about how I should live my life. I live my life the way I want to and will happily invite everyone to be part of my life. If you are being ignorant and show no interest though - there is a door. I am always very interested in other peoples life and their stories, took a lot of time to listen and help whereever I was able to and I expect people around me to do the same to me. Give and take.

I put the list of disadvantages up, to show that not everything is shiny with being a professional gambler. Because, apart from the misconception that every pro gambler is rich, most people have the illusion that this is an utterly fancy world like some Hollywood movie. As I said multiple times, it's a normal job in the end - a very rare one and also one that not everyone is able and willing to do. I wouldn't recommend doing such a job, but for me and my life it's the perfect fit.


I will put up a post about bullying from authorities later today or tomorrow.

[1714662119]

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[1714662119]

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[naikturun]

nice thread tyki.I have read your thread from the beginning and the question I want to ask has been asked by someone else,
I also play this game but I play poker because I am more comfortable playing it than putting a bet like you do, and other types of games like dice slots etc. so I want to add a little. I think the best lesson from doing something like this is your experience might get additional info or knowledge from people who are already proficient / pro gambler. but your own experience that will determine to be better than before from the many mistakes you make and fix them in the future.

[tyKiwanuka]

I also play this game but I play poker because I am more comfortable playing it than putting a bet like you do, and other types of games like dice slots etc. so I want to add a little.

As I said before, you should be comfortable with what you are doing. For some this is betting, for others poker. Playing dice, slots is ok too, but don't expect to come out on top there. Do it for fun and don't invest too much money there.

I think the best lesson from doing something like this is your experience might get additional info or knowledge from people who are already proficient / pro gambler. but your own experience that will determine to be better than before from the many mistakes you make and fix them in the future.

You always learn more from the lows than you do from the highs of course. Mistakes and failure are necessary ingredients to move forward. There is no shame in making mistakes - the only mistake is not learning from them and doing it better next time. Being succesful in pro gambling is a skill which has to be developed over time.

A favourite quote of mine, which tennis player Stan Wawrinka also has tatooed on his forearm, from Samuel Beckett:

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better.

And I'd like to get enlightened more on "Bullying from authorities."

I can only talk about the legal situation and laws here in Germany, but it's the same for many countries. Online betting is still a grey area and often times very un-regulated market (which is good and bad).

German government always puts up some strange laws. They say they want to protect the players. On the one hand, players should not run easily into gambling addiction and on the other hand they should be protected against scam (books, casinos). What they really want is taxes. Gambling is a huge market, so Angela & Co try to milk that market tax-wise, smoke screening it with player protection.

So the first thing that happened some years ago, was, that german customers weren't able to register with quite some bookies anymore. Existing german customers were kicked out, because the bookmaker didn't want to take any legal risks by letting german customers play at their sites. This was a blow, because being active mostly in niche/small markets requires a good variety of bookmakers to shop for odds and to bet on all the offers each bookmakers provides. In a game of football, the matchup is clear: Team A against Team B. In a cycling race for example, you have 160+ riders and can make gazillion of H2H. Rider A against rider S, rider W against rider Z and so on. And back in the days, a lot of bookies made their own H2H and compiled odds for them. So, I could maybe bet on rider W to beat rider Z only at one particular bookie. And as a resident of Germany I was excluded from playing at a lot of these books.

Then some time later, the german government introduced a 5% bet tax. This means, that german customers, get taxed 5% on the net win for each bet. The bookmakers would collect those taxes and send it to german tax authorities (I doubt any of those bookies ever did, it was just additional money for them). So when you are operating with a 5% yield, 5% taxes are a lot. Odds of 2.00 suddenly became odds of 1.95 (after taxes) - looks small, but makes a huge difference longterm. Nearly all european softbooks truckled and introduced that tax for their german customers. So I lost nearly all european books over night.

The latest law, which will be passed at some point later this year, will introduce a 1000,- Euro deposit (!) limit per month per user over all (!) bookmakers. There will be a big database, where all bookmakers are forced to put their customers data, betting amounts, deposit amounts, winnings etc. in. All for player protection of course
This new law is totally bs and just shows what idiots are at work there. A) Recreational/fun bettors won't reach that 1000,- Euro limit B) Addicted gamblers will always find a way to feed their addiction C) Pro gamblers bet via agents anyway, only agent knows identity, bookmakers has no clue who that customer is. So I think, that law will have no negative impact on me, but you get what I mean, when I say "bullying from authorities".  

And then you are always in danger of getting on the radar of authorities. Betting/poker are considered games of luck in Germany and thus are not taxable, gross profit = net profit. There weren't any pro bettors yet that were sued by authorities, but one poker player (there might be more, but I only know this case). Authorities sued him to pay taxes on his poker winnings, because they said, he is a commercial player and makes a business out of it, so no game of luck anymore.  
All the madness, dumbness and ignorance showed up, when they calculated what he owed the state. This player was a good live poker player, but also played a bit online afaik. Prize money winners from poker tourneys can be found in the internet and there is some databases. Authoritites added all his prize money and said, ok, you have won this and this and will have to pay like 50% taxes on that. They didn't take into account, that in most poker tourneys you will win nothing, but pay (huge) buy-ins. So, if they count his winnings, they should also set it off with all the buy-ins he has lost. But they didn't. The amount he was due he was not able to pay, it was more money than he had. I think he is still busy paying those taxes, but at least he can now also tax his losses and will get some taxes back that way. And from his own statements, he is a losing player in the end, but had some big cashes during his career.

[Steamtyme]

I've noticed that it works the other way round as well. If you fold several hands in a row, your opponents might have an impression that you play only very strong hands, and because of that you can easily get away with bluff afterwards.

It's true anything you do consistently in a game with opponents skews their view of you. Whether it's folding to 3 bets or bet folding the flop, some people will take it that you do this everytime. I always get antsy when I RFI 3 or 4 times in a row based on my pre-flop range. Usually it seems I'll have 2 really strong hands in a row where most people fold out because I've been perceived tight the last half hour or so while I waited on hands. Then I get the 3rd hand and it's in my range but near the bottom. I always think a little longer on these as to whether I play them or not, as I find people begin to lose their resolve and get annoyed maybe just spite jam or raise.
I know it still gets to me sometimes if I watch someone do the same maneuver 3 or 4 times, I still fight myself and my emotions at the table quite frequently.

[tyKiwanuka]

It's true anything you do consistently in a game with opponents skews their view of you. Whether it's folding to 3 bets or bet folding the flop, some people will take it that you do this everytime. I always get antsy when I RFI 3 or 4 times in a row based on my pre-flop range. Usually it seems I'll have 2 really strong hands in a row where most people fold out because I've been perceived tight the last half hour or so while I waited on hands. Then I get the 3rd hand and it's in my range but near the bottom. I always think a little longer on these as to whether I play them or not, as I find people begin to lose their resolve and get annoyed maybe just spite jam or raise.
I know it still gets to me sometimes if I watch someone do the same maneuver 3 or 4 times, I still fight myself and my emotions at the table quite frequently.

Poker is just so much about strategy, psychology, reading your opponent, being scared. And as mentioned you can quite easily manipulate the thinking of your opponents by doing certain things. This might even include some intentional donk plays, that don't cost that much, but which might yield you lots of chips at a later stage; people don't forget that easily.

I actually thought about putting a little piece of paper on my screen to cover the hands I am getting dealt. Then just play a tournament or sit&go blindly, only analyzing what the others do and reacting accordingly. You will most likely lose, but it's maybe a good way to improve your strategic game and the ability to read your opponents.

[Betwrong]

~
I actually thought about putting a little piece of paper on my screen to cover the hands I am getting dealt. Then just play a tournament or sit&go blindly, only analyzing what the others do and reacting accordingly. You will most likely lose, but it's maybe a good way to improve your strategic game and the ability to read your opponents.

Wow! I think, most likely it is. I'm going to try it out with some free rolls or very small stakes. It reminds me of this training for runners when they are wearing ankle weights and are running as usual, or even competing with other runners. Yes, under these circumstances, they lose even to those who are not athletes. But later, after taking the weighs off, they feel like they can fly.

[tyKiwanuka]

What was your worst/highest loss on a bet ?

It wasn’t a single bet, but an array of bets against one cyclist. I have tried to delete all memories about this day and I am no encyclopedia when it comes to sports results, but I think it was the 11th stage of the Tour de France in 2009. It was quite an easy stage, so a sprint finish was expected. No easy flat sprint though, but an uphill sprint.

Mark Cavendish was the worlds best sprinter back then and had been quite dominant in that years edition of the Tour de France as well. But he was never a good uphill sprinter. He was by far the fastest on flat finishes, but there were better sprinters out there, when the road was ascending towards the finish line.

To the surprise of my fellow punters and me, the bookmakers made Cavendish the overwhelming favourite to win this stage and we couldn’t believe our eyes. For us it would have been a great result, if he finished inside the Top5. We tried to find the reason, why the bookmakers thought that way. The published profiles for a stage often lie a bit, so we spend hours to check out, what kind of finish this is in the end. We discussed for hours and hours, checked google street view, made our own calculations about gradients etc.. In the end, we decided that the bookmakers and the market are dead wrong on this one.

So we placed all kind of bets against Cavendish. We bet against a win of him, we bet against him finishing in Top3, we bet every H2H there was against him. All with big stakes.

The stage itself was pretty boring and everything was lined up for the expected mass sprint. When the road started going upwards shortly before the finish, we held our breath, waiting for Cavendish to get distanced from the head of the peloton. But he wouldn’t go away. And it got even worse. Not only wouldn’t he fade, but he moved up to the front to start his sprint. And the inevitable happened – he won that stage to our disbelief.


https://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=12917

We also placed bets on Hushovd to win, Hushovd to finish Top3 and some H2H on him, since he was a fabulous uphill sprinter with smallish gradients from 4% to 6%. He was a pretty big and massive guy, but he had the raw power in his legs to master these kind of finishes. But he wasn’t good that day too and all those bets lost as well.

I still think the bets against Cavendish had some value, but we massively overstaked on that one and were rightfully punished for that. Cavendish had fantastic legs that day and you always have to take those things into account as well - but we were blind just thinking about all the money we would make on this day. It turned out to be a terrible day instead

[tyKiwanuka]

What was your best bet ever ?

This might be a little braggy, but I have talked about my worst loss before and this bet wasn’t my success, but the success of a friend of mine since it was “his” bet and I just joined it and we split the stakes and winnings afterwards.

It was a bet for the womens single Badminton tournament at the London 2012 Olympics. The nations are only allowed to send a small contingent of players to all the competitions. China had 3 spots for the womens singles. They pre-nominated 3 players: Wang, Wang and Wang (yes, they all had the same name ). Now Chinese sports authorities always like to play some games and keep people and opponents in the dark what they are really up to. My friend knew, what only a few insiders knew, and that is, that China will send Wang, Wang and Li to this competition. You can make last minute changes and they planned to replace one of the Wang’s with Li, a 21 year-old upcoming superstar, who was already in Top10 in the world at that time iirc. My friend said, she is probably already the best player in the world (it takes some time to climb up the rankings) and likely to win the women singles in Badminton.

So we checked the odds, but Li wasn’t available of course, because China had nominated 3x Wang. But some bookmakers always list the most promising and likely winners and put everyone else as “any other” option. The odds for outright winning market looked something like this:

Athlete	Outright Odds
__________________	__________________
Wang1	2.50
Wang2	4.50
Player X	5.00
Wang3	6.00
Player X	8.00
Player X	8.00
Player X	10.00
Player X	12.00
Any other	61.00

This is like offering odds for La Liga Champions, putting Barca @ 1,80, then Atletico, Valencia etc. and including Real in any other for odds of 50+.

This “any other” option offered tremendous value, since fair odds for Li would have been around 2.50 (same as Wang1 more or less). So we grabbed our money and played multiple times maximum bet on” any other” (you can repeat bets at some bookies, even though you make max bets all the time). You can't stake hundreds of thousands on such bets, but it was still more than we expected. We brought the odds down a bit, but everything above 2.50 was value, so we placed more bets. We discovered another bookie that offered the same odds and placed maximum bets there as well. In the end we had staked a pretty huge amount on average odds of around 40 for any other I would think.

The tournament started and of course Li was nominated for China instead of Wang3. She had no problems disposing of her opponents and won every match with 2-0 sets and reached the final, where she would meet Wang1. During the whole tournament (it lasted for 10 days I think), we prayed that she doesn’t get injured or sick.

For the final Wang1 was small favourite, with odds around 1.70. The match started and Li was dominant, edging out a healthy lead in the first set. That was the point, where we decided to hedge out a bit. In advance we already deposited lots of money into our Bet365 accounts, since we knew they would offer live-betting for this event. So we started to place some bets on Wang1, whose odds kept rising during the first set, which Li won 21-15. After that first set, we were already guaranteed a lot of money, no matter the outcome. Wang1 won the second set 23-21, but Li won the third set 21-17 and was crowned womens single Badminton winner in the London 2012 Olympics.



Unfortunately Li had to retire from professional Badminton quite early due to some knee injuries, but she will be my Olympic heroine forever.

[tyKiwanuka]

A little story:

One of my betting partners/friends is from China and specialized in Chinese Basketball and Football. He lives quite far away from Wuhan, so he is kind of safe-ish from Covid-19, but still stays at home most of the time and only leaves the house, when absolutely necessary. The problem he has, is, that of course all sports in China is paused for the moment as well, so he is kind of unemployed now and can't earn any money. The last Basketball match in CBA was January 21st and the start of Football Super League was postponed too. He thinks that maybe in April both leagues will start again, but I am not so sure about that.
He is not worried a lot, because he has some money in the background, but it's still something to be taken into consideration when being a professional gambler. Such a virus and all the consequences to public life is of course a very rare occurance, but there might be other things (serious illness for example), that can prevent you from being able to bet and earn money. So always make sure to put some money aside.

In Germany there are more and more Covid-19 cases now and our Minister of Health already spoke about an epidemic coming. I can see my german sports/leagues being halted for that reason too and expect it to happen in the next weeks. So, I would be kind of unemployed then too

[tyKiwanuka]

A post from Steve, whose blog I mentioned earlier in this thread. He describes how he took advantage of bonus offers from casinos: How I gambled over $1 Billion dollars in my 20’s

While it's a great and fun read, at least for me, it also shows that it all comes down to math in the end; that is the foundation. If you show some smartness, are alert to new developments, willing to dive into them and ready to put in some work, you can make money in the gambling world. In regards to sportbetting it's advantageous to have some knowledge about the sports you are betting, but I know people that even make money without having deep knowledge. They are just very smart and can spot valuable opportunities by just monitoring markets. This is probably a god-given gift and I don't have that talent too, but it can be learned and mastered to some extent.

I won't withhold, that it has gotten very hard to make easy money as Steve did some 15-20 years ago, but it is still possible to find these opportunities, if you stay alert.

[tyKiwanuka]

I can see my german sports/leagues being halted for that reason too and expect it to happen in the next weeks.

Well, my fear came true. I didn't place a bet since March 11th and this is probably the longest break in the last 15 years. I am not necessarily missing the betting part, but boy, do I miss watching some sports. Going from watching sport every day for multiple hours to zero, nada, niente is really kind of weird. What would I give now to watch some Bundesliga match even without spectators Expecting sports/league to resume in May again, so this will be a loooong April.


Some years ago, I stumbled across every punters wet dream. I found some more or less huge imperfection in some markets. Good thing was, there was no research to be done, no knowledge needed, the market did the work for me and I just had to place the bets filtering some odds and collecting my winnings afterwards. The icing on the cake was multiple of these bets being available every day for 10 months of the year.

I followed WTA tennis very closely at that time, since these were the markets where I wanted to learn inplay trading at Betfair. So I spent my days watching the ladies play and trying my luck in making some bucks by taking advantage of odds movement while the matches unfolded. Very soon I learned, that this is easier said than done. WTA tennis is said to be a nightmare to bet on, but a dream to trade. What I noticed - being someone who likes to play bigger odds - is, that a lot of these games were very one-sided; the odds favourite just won with no fuzz. That made me thinking. If the majority of the favourites wins rather easily, there must be some way to make money with it. I had a look at set betting.

Checking all results every day, there were rather few three-setters (in contrast to what one would expect in womens tennis) and most of the matches ended 2-0 with the favourite winning. Now this tells nothing, if you don't have any odds available. So I bought a lifetime license for some tennis database and started calculating and analysing what happened in the past (5 seasons). That database also included pre-match odds for all matches, but not the set betting odds. The way bookmakers compile their set betting odds is fixed, i.e. they don't really compile them. They do compile the ML odds and just extrapolate the set betting odds from that. And that formula was wrong.

It was rather easy to grasp what their formula was and so I soon had a list what were the corresponding 2-0 odds for given ML odds. So I could calculate, what 2-0 bets on WTA favourites would have yielded for past season - and the results were amazing.

But what is a favourite ? A 1.20 is a huge favourite, a 1.50 is a solid favourite, a 1.80 is still a little bit of a favourite, but there was some threshold which I had to define, where there was no value to blindly play a favourite for 2-0 win. That threshold was at (average market) odds of 1.64 according to my calculations.

So after some days of theoretical work, I finally started my test. I would now play every WTA favourite =<1,64 to win their match 2-0. I started with smallish stakes, but relatively quickly upped them, because the results were very good and I was sure, they were no fluke. Already after like 3 weeks, I was staking the max amount at most bookmakers. It has to be noted though, that the max stakes for set betting at most bookmakers are not that high and I always played early odds, where the limits are reduced anyway. I always shopped for the best odds, since there were quite some differences in the bookies. One bookmaker had a 1.80 for my bet, the other a 2.05. Huge difference and I wanted to max out my profits. I needed lots of money in all my bookmaker accounts to act quickly and get the best odds available.

As the months passed by, I was always fine-tuning the system. Some players weren't reliable favourites and more often than not going for mental walkabouts during their matches, resuliting in three-setters (but still winning in the end). Pavlyuchenkova was one of those. So I filtered out some players, that weren't profitable for this system. I also noticed the system doing rather poor-ish with grass tournaments, hardcourts were better than clay and all those things. I kept track of every single player, every single tournament, every surface and checked the results. I was able to create huge turnover and was operating with a 10% yield.

This goldmine lasted for around two years, until a) the market adapted and b) I was running out of betting accounts. The bookmakers changed their formula to compile set betting odds and thus they were way lower from that on. I re-calculated everything and came to the conclusion, that it was still profitable, albeit with a lower expected yield. But I was limited so heavily in nearly all bookmakers and wasn't able to place my desired stakes anymore and shopping for the best odds was very hard with only few bookmaker accounts at hand. Betfair was no option, since the set betting markets there have low volume (especially for early odds).

After the bookmakers changed their formula again, I realized that with all these circumstances the goldmine was depleted. I tried to work out some similar inplay set betting system, but failed. So after around 2.5 wild years with 2-0 set betting WTA favourites, I finally stopped.

I had a look, if that system could be applied to ATP, but no, you would just break even, so not worth the time. I did add WTA qualifying matches though, because my data showed them to be profitable as well and I often had some lack of matches in the weekends, since only SF and F were played then. With also betting the qualifying matches for the tournaments starting the week after, I had a full schedule every day of the week.

[verita1]

Thanks for sharing your experience, it is really useful for new gamblers.
Sorry if you have answered it before. What are the basic things that a new gambler should know?

[bbc.reporter]

@tyKiwanuka. If you were a sportsbook, what would be your odds on the withdrawal of the coronavirus quarantines in Italy after 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, 6 months and 1 year?

[Meowth05]

Is it worth living the life as a gambler? I mean there must be a lot of setbacks, but what are the difference of livng a life of not gambling?

[tyKiwanuka]

Sorry if you have answered it before. What are the basic things that a new gambler should know?

There is a little (bad formatted) glossary in the first post. Your question is mainly answered in this and this post.

@tyKiwanuka. If you were a sportsbook, what would be your odds on the withdrawal of the coronavirus quarantines in Italy after 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, 6 months and 1 year?

I guess you are refering to when sport events will start to take place again (?). It's really hard for me to give odds for that in Italy, because I am not digging deep into the happenings there. I am closely following everything in Germany though and I think, that Bundesliga will start again in May without spectators (see here).

For the bigger football leagues it is easier to resume play behind closed doors, because the teams there are not too dependant on ticket sales. Basketball teams for example, especially in Germany, are heavily dependant on ticket sales; it's a big percentage of their budget. Lots of teams have already laid off some players to save money. So these smaller sports will resume way later.

To precisely answer your question, here are my odds (no juice^^) for Bundesliga starting again:

In May
Yes: 2.00
No: 2.00

In June
Yes: 1.25
No: 5.00

In July
Yes: 1.10
No: 11.00

In October
Yes: 1.02
No: 50.00

In April (2021)
Yes: N/A
No: 500.00

I am not taking any bets though If at least Bundesliga doesn't start by April 2021 again, then the apocalypse has happened and we have other issues to think about than sports

Is it worth living the life as a gambler? I mean there must be a lot of setbacks, but what are the difference of livng a life of not gambling?

What is a life worth living in first place ? This is a very individual matter.

Most important thing is to do what makes you happy. Now this is not always easy, because you somehow have to earn money. Without money, it is very hard to be happy. I am not talking about millions here, but having enough money, to have a home, to eat, to pay your bills. To achieve this, the majority of people just does a job, that will guarantee this financial foundation. If people could achieve this by NOT working (maybe they are able to print money f.e.), like 80% would not be working. Or not work in that particular job or just do part-time or do charity work or whatever.

The life as a gambler is not always easy and it certainly isn't the right thing to do for most of the people. But I think I am more happy with what I am doing than 99% of the population. There are lot of setbacks - it's a rollercoaster nearly every single day, but I like it. I don't necessarily like the rollercoaster thing, but I like the advantages that come with me sitting in that rollercoaster on a daily basis. And there are setbacks with a "normal" job too. They are a bit different, because you will always get your pay no matter the setbacks, but a 9-5 job would bore the hell out of me. Having to deal with co-workers and bosses, being forced to be at certain places at certain times, spending 40+ years with something I wouldn't do in my spare time etc. For lots of people it's a compromise they take to have that financial foundation I talked about above, but for me this is no option unless I have to in the future. Then I would be one of "them" (and I am not judging "them", it's just not what I personally want to do in and with my life).

I have to deal with setbacks, that nearly all self-employed people have to deal with too. There is not that much difference imo and I like this quote regarding that:

If you don’t take risks, you’ll always work for someone who does.

Source: unknown

For more on why the advantages weigh out the disadvantages, see these two posts: 1 2

[bbc.reporter]

@tyKiwanuka. No, not about the return of sports events but the withdrawal of quarantines themselves by governments.

In any case, your odds appear to be very optimistic, I reckon. However, I would give that odds if the commisioner was Dana White hehehehe.

[Bttzed03]

Thanks for the glossary. I was able to find questions similar to mine.

I have almost the same thoughts with @bitmover's while I was reading his comment & questions, specifically the last part. I read your reply and you (OP) dodged some questions because they're too personal but I'd like to follow up on that it it's okay with you.

You started as a single (not married) and that might not be the case right now. Did that affect your life as a professional gambler? If so, how?

[tyKiwanuka]

@tyKiwanuka. No, not about the return of sports events but the withdrawal of quarantines themselves by governments.

Well, the withdrawal of quarantines and sports events starting to resume go hand in hand imo in the end. So those odds I mentioned (or compiled ) are somehow valid for relaxing quarantines too. But it's not like just flipping a switch and everything is "normal" again; it's a process.
At some point the economical consequences, and all that comes with it, are worse then the actual virus we are trying to fight with shutting down whole countries. So for Germany, I expect loosening of quarantine at 20th April (my odds for that to happen: 1.20) and Bundesliga starting again soon after. All this with keeping measures regarding social distancing, wearing masks, no spectators etc.

I read your reply and you (OP) dodged some questions because they're too personal but I'd like to follow up on that it it's okay with you.

You started as a single (not married) and that might not be the case right now. Did that affect your life as a professional gambler? If so, how?

All questions are fine (this is an AMA), but I won't answer every single one of them, since some too private matters don't belong in public for my liking. I can reveal my private life not being affected by my job though, it's pretty standard, without going too much into details. The pro betting people I know personally are all married and have kids - apart from one, that it is younger and still studying.
I emphasized multiple times, that pro betting is more or less a normal job in the end. It's just that these people are working from home and often in the evenings&weekends. But otoh they have quite some time for their kids during the day, which is something people with a regular job most of the time don't have. My friends with a normal job and younger kids/infants rush to work in the mornings, get home by evening and then maybe have one hour with their kids, before they (the kids that is ) go to bed. Bringing the kids to kindergarden/school and picking them up again, helping with homework, entertaining the kids on boring afternoons, going to doctors with them, driving them here and there etc. is something not a lot of fathers are able to do.
And since you have no boss, you own your schedule/time. You can always make time easily, if necessary or needed.

[bbc.reporter]

@tyKiwanuka. What news websites are you reading? 1.20 odds for yes is a very positive view, I reckon hehehe.

It might also be impossible because the situation is only very unpredictable. Human to animal transmission of the coronavirus might be happening everywhere.



A TIGER AT the Bronx Zoo in New York City has tested positive for the virus that causes COVID-19, and six other big cats are exhibiting symptoms consistent with the illness, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Sunday afternoon.

“It’s the first time, to our knowledge, that a [wild] animal has gotten sick from COVID-19 from a person,” says Paul Calle, chief veterinarian for the Bronx Zoo. The Malayan tiger, named Nadia, likely contracted the coronavirus from an infected—but unknown—asymptomatic zookeeper. “It’s the only thing that makes sense,” Calle says. The zoo has been closed to visitors since March 16.

Read in full https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2020/04/tiger-coronavirus-covid19-positive-test-bronx-zoo/

[tyKiwanuka]

@tyKiwanuka. What news websites are you reading? 1.20 odds for yes is a very positive view, I reckon hehehe.

It might also be impossible because the situation is only very unpredictable. Human to animal transmission of the coronavirus might be happening everywhere.

Hehe, lol, I don't have any insider news nor the phone number of Chancellor Merkel Denmark in the north and Austria in the south have already announced to loosen the measures in the next days. And while this is indeed unpredictable, I would call the situation under control for Germany. The 1.20 is mainly because you can witness a tendency from the media to push towards relaxing the shutdown, putting pressure on the politicians and authorities little by little. You can see and hear more and more (rhetorical) questions like: "When will we be allowed to go out again ?" The media has huge power

And as discussed gazillion times already, there is a threshold, where the economic consequences of a shutdown are worse then the virus itself and we are nearing that threshold.