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1601  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Historic Bitcoin datasets on AWS on: May 12, 2021, 12:37:36 PM
It tells you what columns are provided:
Quote from:
_time,HashingAlgorithm,MaxCoinSupply,NetworkHashrate,Difficulty,AvgTransactionValue,AvailableSupply,TransactionCount,TransactionValue,AvgTransactionFee,DailyTotalTransactionFees,TransactionValueUSD,DailyTotalRewards,Marketcap,NVTRatio,AnnualizedStockToFlow,StockToFlow

My guess is they are offering their 2020 data for free so people will subscribe to their $60,000/year subscription that appears to go back further. One of their other $60k/year datasets contains more information about each column.
1602  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-07-26] The IRS is warning thousands of cryptocurrency holders to pay taxes on: May 12, 2021, 10:45:47 AM
As we've said before, it is only a matter of time before all centralized exchanges are reporting all their customers to the IRS (or your equivalent tax agency or government). I am very surprised it has taken them this long to start going after other exchanges after they served a similar summons to Coinbase in 2016. If you have completed KYC somewhere, then expect the IRS to get their hands on your details sooner or later.

Well.. I am not going to deny any of this. But let me ask you one question. Coinbase claims to have an userbase of 56 million verified users. A large majority may be from the United States. Then there are other exchanges such as Kraken and Bitstamp, which mostly service the American users. Do the IRS have the resources available to go after these 50-100 million users? If the users had used these exchanges for just one or two trades, then what is the possibility that the IRS will go after them?
The IRS can trivially review tax return data along with the data received from the various exchanges to get a good idea as to if income was properly reported and if not how much income was not reported. They have no reason to go after 50 million people when 99%+ of these people properly reported their income.

The number of trades is less important than the value of the transactions/trades.
1603  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: [May 2021] Fees are low, use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs! on: May 10, 2021, 08:22:51 AM
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It would probably be better if any implementation of my proposal would only apply to transactions sent after a cutoff date.

It could that effective block number x, transactions can be sent to addressed starting with bc2 that are "balanced based" addresses, and that after block number x plus n, no transaction will be valid until all outputs are sent to a "bc2" address that keeps track of address/key balances.
1604  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: [May 2021] Fees are low, use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs! on: May 10, 2021, 07:52:16 AM

That's something a lot of people miss. Even if they are from the same address each UTxO has to be signed individually which takes up a lot of space.
There is an argument to change from signing individual UTXOs, someone spending coin would need to sign an address plus a nonce. This would encourage address reuse, which reduces privacy, and would make CPFP more complex, but would increase transaction throughput. It would also eliminate change addresses, which would also reduce privacy. It would be required that nonces are confirmed in order, but two nonces could be confirmed in the same block.

I am not sure, but won't Schnorr/Taproot fix this too? Or is it only wishful thinking from my side?
Technically ECSDSA (Schnorr digital signature algorithm) has the defined method to aggregate signatures which could be used to produce a single signature for multiple public [different] keys. Also technically we can add an option where a single signature (regardless of Schnorr) is produced for the same output scripts.
But neither one (as far as I know but definitely not the second one) are going to be added in the upcoming softfork.

What Taproot does is that you can have a more complex spending script that is bigger but you only reveal a portion of it that has to execute, that way you reduce the transaction size. There are also other benefits using Schnorr which include smaller fixed signature size and signature aggregation for multi-sigs.
If you have 10 inputs in a transaction, all 10 inputs will need to be in the transaction, even if they are all from the same key. If each address had a balance instead of unspent outputs, a transaction with 10 inputs could be potentially reduced to a single input with a nonce and an amount (and a signature).
1605  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: [May 2021] Fees are low, use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs! on: May 10, 2021, 06:46:22 AM

That's something a lot of people miss. Even if they are from the same address each UTxO has to be signed individually which takes up a lot of space.
There is an argument to change from signing individual UTXOs, someone spending coin would need to sign an address plus a nonce. This would encourage address reuse, which reduces privacy, and would make CPFP more complex, but would increase transaction throughput. It would also eliminate change addresses, which would also reduce privacy. It would be required that nonces are confirmed in order, but two nonces could be confirmed in the same block.

The topic of "consolidating inputs" has come up often in this thread, and the above would largely eliminate the need for that.
1606  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Best Place To Store Your Seed? on: May 10, 2021, 05:26:57 AM
I thought about one major issue with storing seed in multiple safe deposit boxes even broken in two parts.


If the government were to for some reason seize your bank accounts... then aren't you basically screwed then?  Like you get subpeona or something like that on your safe deposit boxes?


So wouldn't one way against this in case of something like this would be... seeds in safe deposit boxes... broken in two parts... but making sure you have a passphrase to it... and remembering it but also storing that on a password manager in the cloud?  I mean as long as you remember your passphrase or your email/cloud username/password and password manager... you are fine.  But the issue here is if that is your only copy in the bank safe deposit box... then that won't work right?  Since if you have seed in your house, well they could possibly seize that too?  Or its mainly bank account and bank safe deposit boxes when you hear cases like this?
I would not use a passphrase that is not written down. Doing so would result in you not actually having a complete backup of your seed, and you would be risking the loss of funds if you forget your passphrase.

If you split up your seed in three safety deposit boxes, each could have every 3rd word of your seed, and you could have one decoy seed with some coin in it that is "in order" the words contained in each box.

So your real seed would be 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Your seed would be stored as follows:

Box    1.  2.  3.
Word. 1.  2.  3.
          4.  5.  6.
          7.  8.  9. 

However, you would also have some "decoy" coin in the following seed: 1 4 7 2 5 8 3 6 9

If the government wants to get your seed, they have guns and can put you in jail under certain circumstances. When thinking about how to best protect your seed from the government, I would refer you to a $5 wrench attack
1607  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ on: May 10, 2021, 04:56:47 AM
A trade with a 98% success rate, when success is defined as a 5% gain, failure is defined as a 30% loss will be +EV.
I think some of it is hidden by the fact that if the bot makes 4 trades (it basically sets up 4 buy/sells etc) for a total gain of 5%... that was being counted as 4 separate wins... so, the amount per "win" isn't really 5%... and that would have been 5% of max risk, not your bankroll... so 5% of 30% of your bankroll etc.

When your "stop" got hit... that was counted as only 1 loss.
With a target profit of 1.25%, the EV of the trade is closer to +0.625% of the trade amount. This is based on 4 trades gaining a cumulative 5%.

I might be missing something though. If you are gaining 5% of 30% of your bankroll when you have a profitable trade (4 times), but lose 30% of your bankroll when you have a losing trade, the loss is not 30%, it is 100% of the trade amount. This would be unlikely unless you are using leverage. Or it might be possible if the trade amount is greater than the "max risk" amount. In either case, gaining 5% of 30% of your bankroll over 4 trades (1.25% per trade), and losing 30% of your bankroll on losing trades would have an EV of -0.775% per trade based on a 98% success rate.

IMO, the stop threshold is too high. If you are trying to make a bunch of 1% gains, you should not be willing to lose 30% of your bankroll waiting for a trade to be profitable. There is the -EV issue noted above, but also, if you had cut your losses at a lower threshold, you could use the proceeds from that trade to make other, profitable trades.

~

Even if it was 98% successful, you would probably lose money anyway unless (a) you top up your account after the 30% loss or (b) the loss always follows a winning streak. Which is somewhere between insane and improbable.
If your trades had an EV of +0.00%, you would break even if you had exactly "average" luck, and you should expect this to happen exactly 50% of the time. If you have small +EV trades, your profitability will rely heavily on your early "luck" if trades are made as a percentage of your bankroll. This is true if trades are successful 98% of the time, or 2% of the time. You can still remain profitable, even if your "luck" is "below average", which means you will be profitable most of the time. The higher the +EV each trade is, the worse "luck" you can have and still remain profitable.
1608  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ on: May 10, 2021, 12:43:27 AM
BotHIVE gives you automated and professional tools that you still control with your Money Management and emotions. Money Management is the most important thing, if you can't make money with algos that reach 98% win ratio and when they lose , most of time is by precise shakeout, you will never make money with trading.
All I did was document my experience with his trading bot and the platform... and apparently that makes me emotional with poor money management. Huh

The thing he seems to forget with his 98% win ratio... is that it often wins less than 5-10% but will likely lose 100% of your "max risk" (was set to something like 30% of bankroll by default). So, it only takes a couple of loses (which is exactly what you can expect to get with a 2% loss rate) and you're all the way down.

A trade with a 98% success rate, when success is defined as a 5% gain, failure is defined as a 30% loss will be +EV.

The EV of a trade is as follows:
98%(SUCCESS_RATE) of 5% (SUCCESS_PROFIT) = 4.9%
2% (FAILURE_RATE) of 30% (FAILURE_LOSS) = -0.6%
total EV of trade: 4.3%

Based on the charts you have posted over the course of this experiment, I don't think the bot has a 98% success rate.

If the FAILURE_LOSS is 6 times the SUCCESS_PROFIT, the SUCCESS_RATE needs to be at least 6x the FAILURE_RATE. The markets are not random, so the bot will have to look at some metric(s) to predict when it is more likely for the price of the coin being traded to go up by SUCCESS_PROFIT before it goes down by FAILURE_LOSS.
1609  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Taproot proposal on: May 09, 2021, 10:40:05 AM
With most of the Bitcoin Core developers remaining neutral,
You say a lot of weird stuff. Smiley  Bitcoin Core developers pushed this out, they're not "remaining neutral", that would be a terrible abdication of their responsibility as technical experts.


From my point of view during the Segwit “Saga”, when the call for the USAF was obviously becoming very necessary, most of the Core developers were neutral because of the risks. But reading your reply makes me very confident for the UASF for Taproot, if it’s necessary.
USAF SegWit is not the same as SegWit. The former is a "forced" change, while the later is a change that was achieved via consensus. It is totally reasonable for the devs to advocate for Taproot to be activate, expected actually. For them to advocate for Taproot to activate without clear consensus is another story.
1610  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The Lightning Network FAQ on: May 09, 2021, 10:36:15 AM
Lightning service idea. After Taproot is activated, what about a tumbler/mixer built, and developed for the Lightning Network. You can’t force coffee drinkers to spend their Bitcoin, but you can make thouasands of Heroine dealers move their Bitcoin through a Lightning tumber. Can be more efficient through Lightning, or just making it more complicated?
I don't think taproot is needed for this.

In order to mix your coin, you will need two channels, one with outbound capacity, and one with inbound capacity in the same amount. Once you have the two channels open, you simply make a LN payment from one node to the other. You can increase your privacy by sending multiple payments from one node to the other over time. Privacy will also be increased as more users use the LN network for more transactions. Privacy can be increased by having both nodes have multiple channels open, by not transferring the entire balance in the channel, and by waiting an amount of time before closing the channels.
1611  Other / Meta / Re: Modify Display Name of Account on: May 09, 2021, 08:28:52 AM
Theymos has said in the past, that he does not intend to lower the cost of VIP and donator accounts. This means for all intents and purposes, no one else will ever purchase a VIP or donator account from the forum. Theymos has said that he may create additional paid memberships in the future. The Copper Membership account costs about $35, and the cost is periodically adjusted for the price of bitcoin.
The price of the Copper membership is now closer to $25. Not sure when and how often this changes. The reason the copper membership fees change is because the forum wants and expects those to be bought.
As I mentioned before, theymos manually changes the price of Copper memberships so that it has a fairly consistent cost in USD.
Quote
That can't be said for the VIP and Donator tags. theymos knows very well that no one will ever pay those amounts again, and even if he lowered it to 1 BTC each, how many of you would pay $60 grand to get a special tag under your username? And please don't tell me that 1 BTC = 1 BTC. If you want me to believe you, go out and buy a loaf of bread for 1 BTC because that's how much it was worth back in the day. Or pay 10 BTC if you are a true hodler. Where are those receipts? Cool
IIRC from reading old threads, the cost of a VIP membership was approximately the cost of one month's hosting. The forum's hosting costs have subsequently grown, but not as much as the price of bitcoin.

There may be an argument to periodically change the cost of a VIP account to be in line with x number of months worth of hosting. This would probably lower the cost to be several thousand dollars, but would not be anywhere near the millions of dollars it costs currently.
1612  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN SLOTS] ChipMixer Signature Campaign | Sr Member+ on: May 09, 2021, 08:23:58 AM
Username:Primenumber7
Post Count: 2229
BTC Address (must be SegWit):bc1qaer2xg4kl4yu2nyj0ejt48x9kkutzyzk7n26h7
1613  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Riots after Death of Man in Minneapolis Police Custody on: May 08, 2021, 08:29:01 AM
The junior wearing the "get your knee of our necks" shirt is prima facie evidence that he had a predisposed opinion on the defendant's guilt.

But but but... if the knee on the neck didn't cause Floyd's death then protesting against the knee is like protesting against mint chip ice cream.

You guys crack me up. The trial is over. Chauvin was found guilty. He would have been found guilty by pretty much any reasonable jury. Pinning someone to the ground until they stop breathing is murder, despite the hypocritical claims about Floyd's medical conditions... in which case he should have been in a hospital, not being arrested for a fucking $20.
The tee-shirt shows bias on the part of the junior. This means the trial will likely be thrown out by the appellate courts. The trial judge was not exactly courageous in making rulings consistent with the law during the trial that may have been unpopular.

You are correct, the trial is over, however losing parties have the right to appeal negative court outcomes, and Chauvin is appealing on the basis of the junior being biased and on the basis of the junior lying on his junior questionnaire (among other issues).

My expectation is that Chauvin's guilty verdict is eventually overturned.
1614  Other / Meta / Re: Modify Display Name of Account on: May 08, 2021, 08:21:14 AM
You have made 16 posts. If you want to change your display name, I would recommend that you create a new account. In order to have permissions to change your display name, you need to be a VIP account, and in order to get a VIP account, you need to donate 50BTC, or about $2.6 million at current prices (when this was first offered the price of bitcoin was much lower). Sometimes the forum administration will change your display name at the request of a forum member if they have a compelling reason. I believe that in the past, compelling reasons would include being potentially doxed based on your current display name, being a prominent forum member, making substantial contributions to the community, and similar.

They need to reconsider vip status price lmao, 0.1 BTC would be good at current prices tbh
I believe a VIP membership cost around $50 or so when it was originally made available. To make the cost consistent in dollar terms, the price would need to be well below 0.1 BTC ($5,900).

Theymos has said in the past, that he does not intend to lower the cost of VIP and donator accounts. This means for all intents and purposes, no one else will ever purchase a VIP or donator account from the forum. Theymos has said that he may create additional paid memberships in the future. The Copper Membership account costs about $35, and the cost is periodically adjusted for the price of bitcoin.

Maybe a new paid membership that costs a few hundred dollars will allow users to change their forum handle every so often.
1615  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Covid spike protein causing deadly blood clots > in all the covid vaccines ... on: May 08, 2021, 04:48:38 AM
Hmm, I guess this explains why fact checkers put out a fact check today letting everyone know that spike proteins aren't dangerous and that no one that's vaccinated can shed Covid spike proteins...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/05/07/fact-check-covid-19-vaccinated-people-dont-shed-virus/4971413001/

When I read this, I asked myself why "fact checkers" would fact check something that was so asinine and I questioned if there was an actual person that truly believed spike proteins are dangerous and that a nonvaccinated human can "catch them", but I guess people believe these spike proteins cause blood clots, and perhaps that it's possible it could "shed" from humans? I don't know, it all seems confusing to me.
I think it is a valid concern. Some vaccines do contain parts of the virus they are protecting against, although this is not the case for the covid vaccines.

If you get the covid vaccine, the chances of you spreading covid to someone else is very low, far lower than if you did not get the vaccine. The ways you can potentially spread covid to someone else if you are fully vaccinated are:
*the vaccine is not effective against protecting you against covid, you catch covid and spread it to someone else. This scenario is basically the same as if you did not receive the vaccine
*someone with covid spits in your mouth (or otherwise transmits particles into your respiratory system), and you subsequently cough into someone else's mouth, and the specific particles from the other person go into the 3rd party's mouth/respiratory system. The probability of this happening is very low, and the vaccine will lower the chances that you actually spread the virus in this scenario.
1616  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Joe Biden is President of the United States of America on: May 08, 2021, 03:05:03 AM
.


The Jan 6 riot at the Capital posed no threat to anyone.
The capital riot posed an immediate threat to hundreds of police officers, members of congress, journalists, etc.

There were more police injured that day in DC than any other day since 9/11.  Some lost fingers, there were concussions, one cop was dragged down the steps of the capital and beaten.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/us/politics/capitol-riot-police-officer-injuries.html

There were over 2,000 police officers injured during the BLM terrorist attacks over the summer. Also the number of officers injured on Jan 6 included injuries such as minor bruises that are not serious.
Quote
The Capital is normally open to the public, but it has been closed. If the Capital had been open, the rioters would have entered via the normal channels and made their voices be heard.
And then would they have broken into private offices of congress members?  What about when they entered the building but weren't allowed into the chamber?  What would've happened if the they were allowed into the gallery but then asked to leave for being too loud?
The “private” offices of congress are actually open to the public. You quite literally need to open the door. There is a sign in book outside the door, but actually signing the book is not enforced.  
Quote
Instead, two or three people breached the entrance into the Capital, and the rest of those who entered the capital were waived in by the police.
This one is my favorite lie.  2 or 3 people lol.  Which are the 2 or 3 you're talking about:



That image is of well outside the capital. A small number of people breached the capital building (not the outside parameter) and the rest were waived in by capital police.

If the capital was open, it basically would have been like the Kavanaugh hearings, except the protesters would be protesting something legitimate.
1617  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-07-26] The IRS is warning thousands of cryptocurrency holders to pay taxes on: May 07, 2021, 11:26:27 PM

Sorry to update the thread but I think this is the right thread to post this since its related to it.  And so this is it!

The IRS is now asking Kraken investors who at least conducted $20,000 in the platform. It might not be long they will also be asking from Binance and other exchanges.
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/irs-authorized-to-summon-kraken
The IRS will likely send similar letters to Kraken customers, and Binance customers if a similar order is granted against Binance.

My advice to anyone who hasn’t been reporting all their bitcoin/crypto related income would be to file amended returns ASAP. IIRC, some of the letters allowed taxpayers to file amended returns, however there is no guarantee the IRS won’t simply audit taxpayers who appear to have not reported all their income.
Quote
Would the traders get to pay the tax even when they conducted transactions before the crypto tax law?
There is no crypto tax law. I believe in 2014, the IRS issued guidance that they expect taxpayers to treat bitcoin as property, and that you must treat any capital gains on bitcoin as capital gains on your taxes.

For example if you receive $100 worth of bitcoin on March 1 as a payment for a service, you would report this as $100 worth of income. If you were to subsequently use that bitcoin to buy $120 worth of goods, you would report $20 in capital gains the year you sell/barter the coin.

Everyone’s situation is different, so it is always best to consult with a tax professional to discuss your specific situation.
1618  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Riots after Death of Man in Minneapolis Police Custody on: May 06, 2021, 02:17:03 AM


Quote
“It was directly related to MLK’s March on Washington from the '60s. ... The date of the March on Washington is the date. ... It was literally called the anniversary of the March on Washington,” Mitchell told the Star-Tribune in reference to the demonstration he attended last year.

Oh, but you guys know what he's really thinking, right?  Roll Eyes
The junior wearing the "get your knee of our necks" shirt is prima facie evidence that he had a predisposed opinion on the defendant's guilt.

Most Republicans agreed with the verdict and the ones that didn't overwhelmingly disagree with any idea tied to BLM.
I don't think many Republicans are comfortable giving their honest opinion on the matter.

1619  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: 51 Node attack on: May 06, 2021, 01:52:36 AM
...
Using SSL would prevent any MTIM attack with the setup I describe. Using TOR is slow, and is not scalable for the entire network. TOR would also increase the chances of a successful Sybil attack, as an attacker could create many malicious nodes. Also, .onion addresses are subject to timing attacks that can lead to de-anonymization.

Being on a public WiFi means the WiFi provider can impersonate any IP address or domain so long as SSL is not being used to authenticate. SSL is (very incrementally) slower than unencrypted communications, and the majority of nodes are not running on a potentially malicious ISP, so nodes will probably not be willing to connect via SSL on any large scale.

I know SSL looks secure, but we can't trust it at all... I remember some years ago when I was learning about the MITM attack there was a tool called SSLstip that allow us to attack even if the users were on a secure socket layer. I will leave this link for those who want to learn more about this tool.

https://tools.kali.org/information-gathering/sslstrip

And about the topic, if 51 Node attack would be possible, then anyone could kill bitcoin with virtual machines  Wink The only ones who can do this kind of attack are the miners and not the ones who have a node.
My reading on this attack makes me believe that an SSLstrip attack would not work against the setup I am proposing.

The connection between your public WiFi laptop and your home computer would be initiated via SSL, and if the information being relayed back from your home computer to your public WiFi laptop is not returned via SSL, you will know there is a problem and that you may be the subject of a MITM attack. A SSLstrip attack needs both of the above to not be true.

Detecting a MTIM attack is just as good as preventing it because you will know not to trust anything you receive via the internet.
1620  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Coinbase vs Coinbase Pro Question on: May 05, 2021, 06:54:17 AM
So right now can you use an example with btc being around 55000?  Let say one wants to sell 0.l btc at around the price shown on coinbase/coinbase pro.  You want to sell it pretty quickly right now.. thus u dont want to wait it to go up to 55500 or risk it going down lower.  Let say right now you want to sell it on coinbase pro.


How much would you get for selling 0.l btc right now on coinbase pro compared to coinbase right?  Again, you want to just sell it immediately to a seller now that is offering the highest price. 


Also when you do this, its not possible to sell it to someone offering a lower price right?  Imagine one person wanting to buy say l btc at 55000.  The next person want to buy 0.7 btc at 54900 etc.  So when you sell the entire 0.l btc... it will always be from the highest bidder right?  Again i dont want to be like okay i want it to automatically sell once its a certain price like 55000 or 55500.  Its more like okay the price now on coinbase/coinbase pro seem to be around 55000.  I want to immediately sell it for fiat.  So wouldn't selling on coinbase pro still be very quick though?  Like imagine you want to sell that 0.l btc and say by the time you log into your account and go to exchange, you see its now 54800 but you dont care... you want to sell that 0.l btc now for fiat.  So that should be very quick right since you only have 0.l btc to sell?
It is possible to place a "market" order. For an amount as small of 0.1 BTC on an exchange such as coinbase pro, a market order is probably your best solution.

If you were to enter into a market order to sell 0.1 BTC, or if you were to enter into a limit order at a price at or below 55000 for 0.1 BTC,  in your example, your order would execute at 55000, and you would receive 5500 less trading fees charged based on your previous trading activity. If you were to sell this same 0.1 BTC on the coinbase exchange, you would receive 5500 less the fees and commissions charged by the coinbase platform. In both cases, your order would be matched against the existing order.
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