I want to see some confirmation and volume
this could go either way
this is exactly the psychology that will keep you out and eventually force you to chase the rise. the shake out damages everyone's confidence and thats precisely when the market makes its move. listen to the silence here on the Spec Forum. most everyone is dead. |
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 People maxing out the leverage for longs again? lol wow oh boy. the problem for you is this time the leverage is in the strong hands with plenty of margin. Probably. We don't know for sure. For all we know the strong players may have been burned by leveraging long before watching the market plummet yesterday. There is a simple and safer alternative to bitcoinica: use your own money. The market will receive fresh dollars/euros/whatever to sustain real rallies and speculators won't be crushed when the market suffers from temporary bouts of insanity. Don't have money to trade with and need bitcoinica? I would suggest these traders should stay away as they don't have any spare money to speculate with. by definition, yesterdays volatility shook out all the weakest accounts. we've been in * mode most of the day as the strong, leftover accounts snapped up all the leverage. now they won't give it back until we're much higher. |
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how fitting.
Wave 3 starting after all the weak hands have been shaken out or liquidated.
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People maxing out the leverage for longs again? lol wow oh boy. the problem for you is this time the leverage is in the strong hands with plenty of margin. |
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aw, c'mon guys, have a heart, I never got filled
this market is meant to break your heart. |
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this is typical market behavior. the washout takes out all the competition and the survivors get the spoils.
we're going UP.
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With the big drop we just had I think my question is more relevant than ever.
Changing my opinion on Zhou after watching this manipulation... I will not be using bitcoinica, and I have lost NO money, but I can see how this is hurting us.. +1 It's too early for the market. Or at least get rid of the high leverage options. -1 All that happened was a few uberbulls got taught a lesson, and a few shorters got fucked as well on the rebound spike up. Saw the upspike coming when the * popped up on the sell side down at 5.2. We now have a higher portion of traders who are capable of not overleveraging themselves. This is good for bitcoin. +0 I understand the point and I think it is good that people have the option to use Bitcoinica (after all, it's a free market right?). I also think people should be able to use drugs if they wish, but that doesn't mean that people using drugs is good for society. It's good to have the choice, but not necessarily good to exercise that choice to commit to action. While I don't consider myself a pessimistic person (I actually am one of the greatest optimists you can find), I do not trust the Bitcoin community in general to be careful with a Pandora's Box like Bitcoinica. By careful, I mean responsible -- I don't trust that the majority of people are aware of the potential impact that their individual actions can have on the entire market. My main problem is that it aids in pure speculation. Bitcoin is treated by most as a gambling opportunity first and an evolved social development second. But, Bitcoin's intended purpose was to be an evolved social development first and a gambling opportunity, well, never (at least it isn't implied in the white paper). Basically, I'm just saying that the motivation that drives many users into Bitcoin is antithetical to the intended purpose of Bitcoin. Of course, one could argue this by saying that it's in alignment with Bitcoin's intended purpose simply because Bitcoin is used. I think at a certain level this is true, but at a systemic level it is not. All systems require balance to achieve homeostasis, but Bitcoinica really fucks with the balance of systemic input and output. It's a threat to destabilization. are you the same "the joint" who was whining about "old engineers" betting scheme and pumping up "phantomcircuits" mistake? are you kidding me? well said Man. |
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up goes the Dow. good sign.
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Nice blogpost! One thing: You mentioned the deleveraging at Bitcoinica, but the * is back at the buy button, which implies there are way too many longs again. What's your view on this situation? Thanks  i think this has ceased to become a reliable indicator either way (meaning price rise or drop). thats b/c everyone knows about it already. I think it means we're going to see some more deleveraging. dead bodies strewn around the landscape on high volume usually means a reversal. in this situation, the * on the Buy side should mean we're going up. Yeah, but we saw high volume which pushed us down from the uptrend from the weeks/months before. Doesn't a reversal then mean we're going down instead of up in that case? what i'm referring to is the high volume on the downstroke yesterday usually means capitulation and the end of corrective wave 2. we should now be free to resume the primary uptrend. |
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Nice blogpost! One thing: You mentioned the deleveraging at Bitcoinica, but the * is back at the buy button, which implies there are way too many longs again. What's your view on this situation? Thanks i think this has ceased to become a reliable indicator either way (meaning price rise or drop). thats b/c everyone knows about it already. I think it means we're going to see some more deleveraging. dead bodies strewn around the landscape on high volume usually means a reversal. in this situation, the * on the Buy side should mean we're going up. |
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Nice blogpost! One thing: You mentioned the deleveraging at Bitcoinica, but the * is back at the buy button, which implies there are way too many longs again. What's your view on this situation? Thanks i think this has ceased to become a reliable indicator either way (meaning price rise or drop). thats b/c everyone knows about it already. |
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Zhou,
i think u should set up your own exchange as well. this would solve alot of my objections.
still not a huge fan of the leverage but lemmings will be lemmings.
btw, will Singapore be any more favorable towards regulations than what Gox is going thru?
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ethotheipi,
i already have a non encrypted wallet generated offline stored on my Ironkey.
what would be the best way to get it tx'd into Armory on an offline computer?
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........................
.................. i really appreciate this product. i too look forward to offline tx capability in a simpler way. thanks. fyi, Ironkey updates the malware scanner online each time i open it and scans the contents of the Ironkey. lol, and you believe it does only that...  (sorry for posting off-topic, i'm amused by ppl who still believe "scanners" do only what they're supposed to do) feel free to elaborate. |
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SSL is not the be all and end all. Handshakes can be captured and faked quite easily. Spoofing mac addresses is also very easy.
 LOL! |
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I was force liquidated with funds still in my account, isn't the margin call meant to deplete your funds before you're force liquidated?
thats what i thought too. since when has this been the case? |
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