Google search volume has been mentioned over and over again as a relevant indicator. Presumably, a spike in search volume is a bullish sign. Alternative explanations go along the lines of search volume following the price, not the other way around.
So, where you got the data for the graph? Share your references, so anyone can verify the data reliability. Search volume is available from google, e.g. https://www.google.com/trends/?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=09. How is the data scaled?
The data is scaled based on the average search traffic of the term you’ve entered.
There are two modes of scaling – relative and fixed – and the only difference between them is the time frame that’s used to calculate the average. However, fixed scaling is only available as a .csv export. Please note that the ability to see numbers on the graph and to export this data with either mode of scaling are available only after you’ve signed into your Google Account for Trends.
Bitcoin prices were obtained from bitcoincharts.com, compounded daily as described in OP. the search volume index is charted at percentage scale, btw. you're comparing it to bitcoin price in linear scale and log scale.
According to Google: In fixed mode, the data is scaled to the average traffic for your term during a fixed point in time (usually January 2004). In our example, 1.0 would be the average traffic of dogs in January 2004. If you chose 2006 as your time frame, you would be comparing data for dogs in 2006 to its data in January 2004. Since the scale basis (1.0) doesn’t change with time, you can look at different time periods, and relate them to each other. (Note: For keywords without a historical record, it may not be possible to establish a fixed scale).
It is not clear how they establish reference volume for keywords that didn't appear in 2004, but regardsless the scale is arbitrary and fixed. Anyhow, the values were close so I didn't bother including secondary y-axis, that is all. |
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Google search volume has been mentioned over and over again as a relevant indicator. Presumably, a spike in search volume is a bullish sign. Alternative explanations go along the lines of search volume following the price, not the other way around. Here you can see overlapped historical bitcoin prices from MtGox with Google search volume for "bitcoin". Conveniently, the "exact" search volume scale (as opposed to the relative scale) mostly matches the USD exchange rate, so it's all on the same unnamed y-axis. Bitcoin price data are daily average, while google data are unfortunately compounded weekly. I have therefore placed google data points on the 4th day of the week. Also shown are the same data in log scale so no detail is lost in the valleys. What do you think? To me, the conclusion is obvious and solid, but I'll only post it here after others have commented.   |
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For bitcoin's sake- I hope Pirate Returns the money, and the community stays away from such "financial innovation" in the future, even if it's not a ponzi.
For bitcoin's sake, I hope Pirate doesn't return the money. Even if he pays out in full, anyone giving Pirate money took a huge risk. If that risk is rewarded, imagine how eager people will be to get in on the next big thing completely indistinguishable from a scam. It can only get worse if he pays out. People also tend to forget. So eventually it will be the same. The only "danger" I see, is Pirate being "the government" or "the bank". A 51% attack on bitcoin to try to weaken or bring it down, would require too much funding. These operations though (all Pirate's operations), if shit hits the fan, could have a strong impact on people's trust on Bitcoin (usage, price, merchant adoption etc) providing at the same time a huge profit. No person could chase "the government" or "the bank" to "settle" the matter or even to just threaten them. Every time Bitcoin gains some popularity among users and merchants, a new Pirate appears... Repeat that for X number of times. There's a pirate every minute. Tom Williams, too. Nothing to do with Bitcoin specifically. They are junk merchants, except they don't exploit opiate addicts but greedy and lazy people. Same principles. Bitcoin works, in many ways better than centrally-issued fiat, and that's what matters. Hell, if it didn't work, scammers wouldn't be using it. If you are worried about Pirate, simply don't play along. If you do play along, don't pretend like you care about Bitcoin. You're missing the point... Even if I, or you don't play along with Pirate(s), others will. It seems like greed is in human nature, others have it more others less. Nevertheless Bitcoin's reputation is damaged every time something like that happens. If the people that don't know a lot, or anything, about Bitcoin, all they hear about it is scam, scam, scam, they will never want to use it. Agreed though, that everyone should be more careful of Pirate(s). Well, if it is mostly scam, scam, scam, then people should indeed avoid Bitcoin, and it should end in the landfill of flawed or impractical ideas. All ends well. In my experience, current users tend to make much more drama about occasional scams than the curious newcomers. This can maybe be explained by current users being emotionally and financially vested in Bitcoin. Most "uninitiated" people I talked to about various aspects of Bitcoin - including scams - never thought scams were something exclusive to Bitcoin. Their concerns mostly revolve about "what's backing it?" "No one accepts it yet" "is it legal?" and "it's too complicated to use". All these concerns are either unfounded or are being actively worked on by the community. |
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 Looks like bullish signal to me.  If you take an honest look into data, you'll notice that "interest" (search volume) generally follows price, not the other way around. The Good Wife, and likely Paycard announcements are an exception, interest raises without the ongoing rally. I don't see how you conclude that it's a "bullish signal." There was no increase in price after the January spike in your plot above. In fact, it kept going down for the following six weeks, then it stabilized for many months. The only way this can be true is if it's a self-fulfilling prophecy (you convince yourself it's a bullish sign, start buying, price goes up, voila!). |
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Many Windows users rely on Secunia to keep software up to date. Bitcoin-Qt client is currently missing from Secunia database. There is a feature available to suggest new software, however it fails because bitcoin-qt.exe lacks version information.
This is a problem, especially in the light of recently discovered vulnerabilities in older versions.
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The case for accepting bitcoins is very compelling:
- no chargebacks
- trully without borders - tap into new markets at no risk
- almost instantaneous
- respects customer privacy (this is a big selling point
- can be automatically converted to USD via paysius or bit-pay
Bitchcoin FTW. |
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I went to the Tesla museum when I was in Croatia. We should totally have one like that in the US. Ours could probably be even better though. Great idea!
I thought the only museum (with actual devices, photos, and original archive) was in Belgrade, Serbia. Tesla-museum.org. In Croatia they turned his birth place into a memorial center. Mcnikolatesla.hr. |
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Occasionally I notice a thread started that seems to intentionally spread false information. Typically, the user who started it never bothers returning to the discussion. I would like to be able to respond (for the sake of users reading the thread), but I don't want to bump obvious FUD.
Would it be hard to implement the option to not bump the thread when replying? Akin to 4chan "sage".
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Raise your hand if you've ever bought an actual stock on the stock market before
Find/make another thread otherwise post a wall. Speaking of which, what is the fastest way to post screengrabs here? I'm kind of turned off by having to save-upload-copylink-pastelink. |
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For hypermobile people like me, it used to be a pain in the ass when every small country in the EU had its own currency.
That's why I was really happy when the Euro came along. It's a shame the Euro was ruined by flawed monetary and fiscal policy. But in principle, the idea of having one standardized currency for the whole of Europe was not a bad idea.
I like bitcoins for similar reasons. They have the potential to become the standard currency of the internet.
These local currencies seem like a step backwards. If one currency per country is already a pain in the ass, just imagine the bureaucratic nightmare if every city had it own currency.
Yes. Again, my original point was that, simply, the existance of alternative currencies legitimizes Bitcoin in the minds of the masses, or least diminishes the irrational fears to some extent. In fact, the shortcommings of centrally issued alt currencies make Bitcoin look even more attractive. |
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For bitcoin's sake- I hope Pirate Returns the money, and the community stays away from such "financial innovation" in the future, even if it's not a ponzi.
For bitcoin's sake, I hope Pirate doesn't return the money. Even if he pays out in full, anyone giving Pirate money took a huge risk. If that risk is rewarded, imagine how eager people will be to get in on the next big thing completely indistinguishable from a scam. It can only get worse if he pays out. People also tend to forget. So eventually it will be the same. The only "danger" I see, is Pirate being "the government" or "the bank". A 51% attack on bitcoin to try to weaken or bring it down, would require too much funding. These operations though (all Pirate's operations), if shit hits the fan, could have a strong impact on people's trust on Bitcoin (usage, price, merchant adoption etc) providing at the same time a huge profit. No person could chase "the government" or "the bank" to "settle" the matter or even to just threaten them. Every time Bitcoin gains some popularity among users and merchants, a new Pirate appears... Repeat that for X number of times. There's a pirate every minute. Tom Williams, too. Nothing to do with Bitcoin specifically. They are junk merchants, except they don't exploit opiate addicts but greedy and lazy people. Same principles. Bitcoin works, in many ways better than centrally-issued fiat, and that's what matters. Hell, if it didn't work, scammers wouldn't be using it. If you are worried about Pirate, simply don't play along. If you do play along, don't pretend like you care about Bitcoin. |
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Pirate doesn't have enough Bitcoins. He will try to bring it down but he needs to buyback soon.
What in the world makes you think he "needs to buy back"? |
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I think this would be very bullish on the price....
I think this is much more likely to be true than he has the coins because it would have taken him no more than 24 hours to return all the bitcoins if he had them, which now proves he doesn't.
EDIT: If he already sold them over time...
The fact that he's not returning the coins doesn't mean he has sold them all. He may be waiting for people to buy back in under the presumption in OP. |
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pirate has not paid anyone back yet. Which means he may be planning another big move to drop prices further. I'm positioned to buy more bitcoins when this happens.
Are you going to sell beforehand? |
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Assumptions and stupidity
You don't know shit so stop talking as if you do.
Stop name calling and think for a second about that return rate. If he had 500k bitcoins, 7% of that is 35K bitcoins ~$350K. Want to explain how he is going to pay that out EVERY WEEK? You're hilariously stupid, or you're just trolling, which is whatever. If you're not trolling, care to justify your position in any way? You are assuming a fixed btc/usd ratio. It's not. What if 7% growth in btc translates into -5% change in usd value of the venture? Right now I don't side with either of the two opinionated groups, and I haven't invested a satoshi with the pirate . |
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I was hoping to learn if folks are getting their funds back or not. Anyone?
Look deep into your heart and ask your question again. You'll know the right answer. I'd still like to hear it from them  |
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^ this implies strategies might change, even reverse. Game theory at its best (or worst). Too messy for me to untangle, I'll just keep using btc as usual.
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I was hoping to learn if folks are getting their funds back or not. Anyone?
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