Nothing like a poor loser starting a new thread. Old_engineer, started the contest, someone said "what time zone" rather early on, and he said "GMT". GMT is the standard time zone in many things because it is the standard. You know, the way that Central time is referred commonly listed as "UTC - 06:00" just to explicitly show what time zone it is? And of course UTC is the replacement of GMT ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time). Why would anyone use GMT as the standard? Because it is. When you're dealing with a global environment, what else would you use? Anyway, you lost out on 5BTC because you got in early on a free contest, never corrected your vote (basically because you had a lucky guess), and now you're whining about it. Welcome to the Internet. All of that is irrelevant since I cast my guess before GMT was even mentioned. As a result, I never viewed the thread again until yesterday. So, I was completely made unaware of this rule. Hence, the game was played under different rules by different players. you seriously think he had an obligation to send you a pm notification? the game was all in fun, dude. |
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First, allow me to direct you attention to this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53888.0According to the OP in this thread, a bet was set where OldEngineer would pay 5BTC to the person who correctly guessed the date that BTC would cross the $4 threshold. In the event of a tie, the prize would go to the first guesser. On Dec. 6th US central time, I guessed that the price would cross $4 on Dec. 19th. This is exactly what happened. It crossed $4 sometime around 10pm US central time on Dec. 19. But, apparently, OldEngineer claims that Goat won. Goat guessed Dec. 20th and was also correct since he was guessing according to Thai Time. OldEngineer claims Goat won because a post on Dec. 7th made the clarification that GMT would be the deciding time. But, this post, which clarified that GMT would be the deciding time, was made AFTER I cast my guess. Why the hell should I, a person who uses US central time, make a guess based upon GMT? OldEngineer, please send me BTC as, per the rules of your OP, I am clearly the winner. It is not fair to go by some rule that was just "created" in the middle of the game when my guess was not cast according to those rules. Edit: I really would not like to make this a big deal if I don't have to. Please fulfill your end of the agreement and there will be no problems. IIRC, weren't you the guy also siding with the thief who accidentally got sent Bitcoin by mistake by Phantomcircuit who works for Intersango? I don't even know what IIRC is. Edit: I do remember what you're talking about, I think. I recall some matter where some exchange mistakenly sent some guy a bunch of BTC who didn't want to return it. I think I remember questioning the legality of the exchange's complaint when they were talking about coming after the guy legally. i certainly don't want to open up that big wound again, but that was a nasty black eye on Bitcoin at the time. i think it was during the summer. Patrick of Intersango wrote some new code which accidentally sent a large amt of btc to some random guy who decided to keep the btc. it was a clear mistake. his identity was even revealed. personally, i think he was wrong to do this but i was surprised over how many ppl sided with him. basically most of the Old Guard folks like me sided with Patrick and tried to politely convince him to return the btc whereas the others thought he should be able to keep it. all sorts of nasty legal threats were made even by the lawyers of this Forum. i don't know the final outcome. |
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basically its a measure of activity measured with bands. as the bands contract and come together with time it indicates a decreasing level of activity in whatever market you're measuring. it also portends a burst of activity in either direction the timing and direction of which is difficult to predict. basically, its a moving picture of the calm before the storm.
I think the idea behind that is that as the fluctuations decrease, speculators start taking larger and larger positions close to the market value, expecting these predictable small fluctuations about the average, and consequently shrinking the fluctuations and stabilizing the price. They are making profit buying when low, selling when high. Eventually, some random amount of noise in the price, or a "malicious" person with money, will push the price past somebody's comfort level, and that person will sell or buy at a loss, pushing it further and causing more people to do the same until it cascades. It should be predictable if you have an idea of how much background noise there is and what the average fluctuation tolerance of the market is. When the tolerance falls below the noise, it is unstable. yeah, everyone looks at these indicators differently. to me its a huge red flag that something big is about to happen. the trick is guessing which way the break will be. i sit up in my seat when i see these formations whereas i bet most market participants who have less experience become lulled to sleep from the inaction and get themselves into a dangerous position. its actually easier to buy and sell with larger fluctuations in price, aka, higher volatility. its difficult when the price moves are so small making it harder to fit your profitable trade into a smaller spread. |
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First, allow me to direct you attention to this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53888.0According to the OP in this thread, a bet was set where OldEngineer would pay 5BTC to the person who correctly guessed the date that BTC would cross the $4 threshold. In the event of a tie, the prize would go to the first guesser. On Dec. 6th US central time, I guessed that the price would cross $4 on Dec. 19th. This is exactly what happened. It crossed $4 sometime around 10pm US central time on Dec. 19. But, apparently, OldEngineer claims that Goat won. Goat guessed Dec. 20th and was also correct since he was guessing according to Thai Time. OldEngineer claims Goat won because a post on Dec. 7th made the clarification that GMT would be the deciding time. But, this post, which clarified that GMT would be the deciding time, was made AFTER I cast my guess. Why the hell should I, a person who uses US central time, make a guess based upon GMT? OldEngineer, please send me BTC as, per the rules of your OP, I am clearly the winner. It is not fair to go by some rule that was just "created" in the middle of the game when my guess was not cast according to those rules. Edit: I really would not like to make this a big deal if I don't have to. Please fulfill your end of the agreement and there will be no problems. IIRC, weren't you the guy also siding with the thief who accidentally got sent Bitcoin by mistake by Phantomcircuit who works for Intersango? |
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there is a market indicator called the McClellan Oscillator which many of us use when investing in other markets. basically its a measure of activity measured with bands. as the bands contract and come together with time it indicates a decreasing level of activity in whatever market you're measuring. it also portends a burst of activity in either direction the timing and direction of which is difficult to predict. basically, its a moving picture of the calm before the storm. in fact, i have never seen such an unprecedented level of calm before this ramp and i was here thru the April fun. in Bitcoin's case, we were working on a slow new uptrend with a classic bullish triangle setup which I predicted would break up in a burst of new activity. the trick was to get in before the break. well, we got the storm alright.  |
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The strength of this rally is so strong, and breaking the important area of $4 so crucial, that I'm willing to say that this changes longer term situation, it's not just a short term boost. However, this doesn't mean it's going to be a "gargantuan rally straight to a new bubble". There will be corrections on the way and many struggles, of which some will be hard to overcome. But I feel very optimistic of the long term picture, not only based on price technicals but the fundamentals of Bitcoin as well. It's here to stay and very unlikely to decline. Bitcoin has so much growth potential and it has survived a lot of crap, that is a big deal from a price perspective as well. And I think people are starting to get it.
this is correct. |
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1Nc9H463Z3bFzyq719ogmD8DC7fyaYKAJq
3 of the coins will go towards the event for the orphans on the 23rd and the other two I will start a contest in a few days.
Sorry I keep wining guys....
whining, wining, or winning? nah, you're not a whiner! |
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Just remember that quick growth like this is usually not sustainable. I prefer the healthy, gentle ramping up that we saw for several weeks past. If one side of the chart looks like the Eiffel tower, then the other side is likely to look the same.
yes, but don't forget that markets usually swing from overbought to oversold. the reversals tend to be straight up to kill shorts and escape away from the non believers. then u get a leveling off before a more sustained steady rise as we head toward the fundamental price. |
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You do? Great. Where is the price heading to from here so I can place my bets? is that Zhoutawng? |
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I take the recent behaviour of the market as a sign of a confirmed reversal.
the Understatement of the Year |
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Because although it will work most of the time, sometimes when the prices moves too fast, they aren't able to liquidate on time, which would effectively cause the account of that person who was liquidated to have a negative balance. And they can't be sure that person is honest enough to deposit more funds to make the balance go to zero or positive again. And if they don't deposit more, Bitcoinica would have lost money themselves.
And it seems that doesn't always work either. After my position was liquidated, I still had a -$69 balance. I deposited some money to cover it, but I can't imagine that everyone would do that. Yeah, spreads only reduce the risk. They don't completely eliminate the risks. That's why they must find a good balance between dampening their risk and providing smaller spreads to stay competitive. That's exactly why the spread is increased in situations when there's more risks (High volatility and/or shallow order book) because they need to protect themselves against those risks, and later reduced again once the dust settles down. the Voice of Reason. |
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Are people scared at this new "instability"? WTF is going on?
yes, according to a bunch of people around here, this price volatility, even if its straight up is BAD for merchants despite the fact that they won't know what to do with all that money! |
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How many?
A lot, seriously. LOL! Way to go Zhoutong. I'm rooting for you.  |
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LOL! haven't seen 502 Bad Gateways to Bitcoin Charts in a while either!
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is this what they call a Santa Claus Rally?
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To $10 it is 45k BTC on MtGox now.
I'm sure that'll fill in. Are you back in? Final really good chance if this is THE next wave up. Buy the dips/brief consolidations, as we are already parabolic … are YOU back in? you got pretty skeptical there. Always been and always will be. I watched it go down to 1.99 without selling. I am always skeptical, but overall long-term bullish.  Fundamentals trump technicals. Can’t win without being willing to risk it all. I have a single bet, and that bet is that Bitcoin’s forced scarcity combined with decentralization will attract huge money. The move to 32 was not caused by this type of money. Before I see most of its potential reached, I’ll be in, whether I lose the bet or not. Also, I wanted to stock up on more sub dollar Bitcoins like in April. Too bad it diidn’t happen.  good to hear it. you and me both, baby. onward and upward! |
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To $10 it is 45k BTC on MtGox now.
I'm sure that'll fill in. Are you back in? Final really good chance if this is THE next wave up. Buy the dips/brief consolidations, as we are already parabolic … are YOU back in? you got pretty skeptical there. |
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you mean that huge bid mountain was REAL?!  It doesn't matter if the bid mountain was real, it just matters that people bought the asks. All those bids might have been fake, but the people pushing the price up are real. It's the fear instilled that counts! oh how i love fear. |
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