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i just pm'd theymos to see if he can help us with the ID.
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So.... I bought as part of that 3.20 buy. Essentially everyone is trying to guess what I was thinking without knowing who I am. I don't play the speculation game too much, so I don't mind sharing.
I bought the price up to 3.16. Shortly after, somebody else (or somebodies else) brought it up to 3.20, but most of that volume was at the 3.15 mark and went to me.
Why did I buy? POssibly speculation, but let me share what was in my head. This weekend, we gave out physical bitcoins to all employees at my software business at the Christmas party as part of their bonuses. Everyone got a 25 BTC coin. The BTC's to fund the physical coins came from my stock, and the company is getting the bill (yes, it's my company, but this is necessary documentation to keep the books kosher). I had planned on rebuying BTC to replace those given out (it was $3 the night of the party), and as the price started inching up, I figured it would be best to execute the transaction timely so there wouldn't be a big disparity in the price.
I gave BTC because everyone at work hears me constantly talking about Bitcoin, and now everybody at my work - no matter their job - has a small but meaningful stake in it so they can cheer with me. (I have been passing out 1 BTC coins as impromptu rewards as well, they are very well liked).
The actual speculative value of the BTC wasn't considered too strongly - I simply wanted my BTC back.
And the physical BTC that got distributed to the employees... well for all intents and purposes, they'll probably be out of circulation for a while, since most of them won't know what to do with it other than put it in a safe place.
ah, so no speculation involved whatsoever? this will continue to happen more and more which is the natural progression of a continually improving economy and technology. if i were a Bear i'd get out of the way. |
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granted there are various ways to make that calculation depending on how bullish you are but surely one way is to take US money supply and divide by 21 million.  Oh boy. If you think that will happen you better set aside 1/3 of you coins, cuz you'll need them to pay the mercs.  By the time 1 BTC could buy a small car, most of us will have let many if not most of our coins slip out of our hands at various points on the way up. Unfortunately, I think the time-scales for this sort of thing will mean I'll have to hope for some serious advances in human life extension technology in order to see this! edit: but if it does come sooner.. I'll be investing some of that bitcoin wealth in 'Aubrey de Grey'-style research anyway whether you realize it or not, you just made the rational counter argument to the Bear argument against hoarders and speculators. their argument goes something like this; hoarders will dump their coins when the price goes up to some magical price thus crashing the economy and price and hurting everyone and their mother which is bad for bitcoin. thus speculators and hoarders are bad. but you're right, on the way up hoarders and speculators will sell their coins at some personally deemed rational price for profit. whether they sell them gradually (which most will do into a rising price) or dump them all at once won't matter at all to the price or economy. the upward push will damp out any crash scenarios as long as the fundamentals and security of Bitcoin is maintained. new holders of Bitcoin will take over and the distribution will be much more diversified and spread out. |
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granted there are various ways to make that calculation depending on how bullish you are but surely one way is to take US money supply and divide by 21 million. Oh boy. If you think that will happen you better set aside 1/3 of you coins, cuz you'll need them to pay the mercs. i said that was one way. i don't necessarily think that will happen. but i don't think its unreasonable to say it can reach the gold price. |
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another new high
In the view count? Really?  no, sentiment indicator |
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That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. This is nothing but flawed thinking. The "7200 x price" calculations are useless and don't mean anything. For mainly two reasons. First of all the inflating amount of bitcoins is not the same thing as the inflating amount of let's say, dollars. New bitcoins are created by users and many of them decide to save bitcoins instead of selling them. This makes a good portion of miners actually investors at the same time and the decisions they make for selling bitcoins are exactly the same as they are for investors. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. As supply increases and demand remains the same, the price will try to fall. That much is obvious. But there are two false assumptions there: 1) supply increases and 2) demand remains the same. Even if we do assume the 2) is true, 1) is still left unproven. In fact, going by your theory that the miners are selling their coins, supply should be remaining relatively constant. What we might be looking at is an increase of demand because of speculation. And speculation is a good thing: it pushes the price up. The amount of Bitcoins minted each day is a constant until December 2012, and if we assume this is supply then demand only needs to stay constant for price to not go down. As speculation increases, demand will increase with it - fueling a bull market. Yes, but the price of one Bitcoin makes a lot more harder to sustain when it is at 5-6 dollars, sustaining high prices would have to give a lot of money/effort in some way to this Economy long term. Once again, because of the high inflation environment for every dollar the price is higher it will need to get around 2,6 million dollars in to the Economy in some way, let it be miners that keep their Bitcoins or fresh fiat buyers at the exchanges. This is a fact, short term people miss this fundamental fact and then cry ans ask why the price is once again down. Because of that every intelligent investor should now that and take advantage of that and don't get caught in the exaggerated bull thinking. by making the Economy argument you are totally dismissing speculation or investor demand. explain to me for instance why gold is at $1700? there is zero economy wrapped around that. I thought more of you cypherdoc, now I understand why you are a super bull, you don't get the fundamentals. Gold is very special, why? Because the total amount of gold and the gold that is refined every year are very very different, the amount is something like 2 % a year that is added to total amount (supply) of gold, that is the reason new supply doesn't have a big impact. Bitcoin will be there some day as well, in like 6-7 years time. Today the inflation rate is around 30 %. If gold had a inflation rate of 30 % the price should have been at around the cost of creating it (plus a margin of a couple of %). Do you see the point now? but markets tend to be forward looking indicators. the market will not wait 6-7 years to price Bitcoin appropriately; they will today tend to project forward as best as possible what they think Bitcoin will be worth once the inflation has plateaued. also you didn't really answer my gold question. without an economy behind it, how is it that the price of gold has gone from $250 in 2001 to $1700 today? answer: speculation. the exact same thing can and will happen, IMO, to Bitcoin. Two things, markets look 6 month in the future not six years (generally). Second, speculation yes, that is one part on the answer the other one is a hedge against fiat currency's. as a rational participant in this market, i can tell you that i am looking way further into the future than 6 mo. i have based my investment decisions on the calculated value of Bitcoin after the inflation has plateaued. granted there are various ways to make that calculation depending on how bullish you are but surely one way is to take US money supply and divide by 21 million. |
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That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. This is nothing but flawed thinking. The "7200 x price" calculations are useless and don't mean anything. For mainly two reasons. First of all the inflating amount of bitcoins is not the same thing as the inflating amount of let's say, dollars. New bitcoins are created by users and many of them decide to save bitcoins instead of selling them. This makes a good portion of miners actually investors at the same time and the decisions they make for selling bitcoins are exactly the same as they are for investors. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. As supply increases and demand remains the same, the price will try to fall. That much is obvious. But there are two false assumptions there: 1) supply increases and 2) demand remains the same. Even if we do assume the 2) is true, 1) is still left unproven. In fact, going by your theory that the miners are selling their coins, supply should be remaining relatively constant. What we might be looking at is an increase of demand because of speculation. And speculation is a good thing: it pushes the price up. The amount of Bitcoins minted each day is a constant until December 2012, and if we assume this is supply then demand only needs to stay constant for price to not go down. As speculation increases, demand will increase with it - fueling a bull market. Yes, but the price of one Bitcoin makes a lot more harder to sustain when it is at 5-6 dollars, sustaining high prices would have to give a lot of money/effort in some way to this Economy long term. Once again, because of the high inflation environment for every dollar the price is higher it will need to get around 2,6 million dollars in to the Economy in some way, let it be miners that keep their Bitcoins or fresh fiat buyers at the exchanges. This is a fact, short term people miss this fundamental fact and then cry ans ask why the price is once again down. Because of that every intelligent investor should now that and take advantage of that and don't get caught in the exaggerated bull thinking. by making the Economy argument you are totally dismissing speculation or investor demand. explain to me for instance why gold is at $1700? there is zero economy wrapped around that. I thought more of you cypherdoc, now I understand why you are a super bull, you don't get the fundamentals. Gold is very special, why? Because the total amount of gold and the gold that is refined every year are very very different, the amount is something like 2 % a year that is added to total amount (supply) of gold, that is the reason new supply doesn't have a big impact. Bitcoin will be there some day as well, in like 6-7 years time. Today the inflation rate is around 30 %. If gold had a inflation rate of 30 % the price should have been at around the cost of creating it (plus a margin of a couple of %). Do you see the point now? but markets tend to be forward looking indicators. the market will not wait 6-7 years to price Bitcoin appropriately; they will today tend to project forward as best as possible what they think Bitcoin will be worth once the inflation has plateaued. also you didn't really answer my gold question. without an economy behind it, how is it that the price of gold has gone from $250 in 2001 to $1700 today? answer: speculation. the exact same thing can and will happen, IMO, to Bitcoin. |
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please check out my blog. i've got a reward posted up.
post 100000?? you mean view 100000. duh, you're correct. |
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That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. This is nothing but flawed thinking. The "7200 x price" calculations are useless and don't mean anything. For mainly two reasons. First of all the inflating amount of bitcoins is not the same thing as the inflating amount of let's say, dollars. New bitcoins are created by users and many of them decide to save bitcoins instead of selling them. This makes a good portion of miners actually investors at the same time and the decisions they make for selling bitcoins are exactly the same as they are for investors. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. As supply increases and demand remains the same, the price will try to fall. That much is obvious. But there are two false assumptions there: 1) supply increases and 2) demand remains the same. Even if we do assume the 2) is true, 1) is still left unproven. In fact, going by your theory that the miners are selling their coins, supply should be remaining relatively constant. What we might be looking at is an increase of demand because of speculation. And speculation is a good thing: it pushes the price up. The amount of Bitcoins minted each day is a constant until December 2012, and if we assume this is supply then demand only needs to stay constant for price to not go down. As speculation increases, demand will increase with it - fueling a bull market. Yes, but the price of one Bitcoin makes a lot more harder to sustain when it is at 5-6 dollars, sustaining high prices would have to give a lot of money/effort in some way to this Economy long term. Once again, because of the high inflation environment for every dollar the price is higher it will need to get around 2,6 million dollars in to the Economy in some way, let it be miners that keep their Bitcoins or fresh fiat buyers at the exchanges. This is a fact, short term people miss this fundamental fact and then cry ans ask why the price is once again down. Because of that every intelligent investor should now that and take advantage of that and don't get caught in the exaggerated bull thinking. by making the Economy argument you are totally dismissing speculation or investor demand. explain to me for instance why gold is at $1700? there is zero economy wrapped around that. |
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The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. What the economy can handle based on real trade demand is for sure MUCH less than the price we're currently at. A large percentage of the price is based on expectations. But this is how it always is, the speculative demand varies but it's never 0. To me the most healthy way for Bitcoin to grow is that the speculative demand doesn't skyrocket to totally unsustainable heights as it did when we bubbled and overshot massively. What I hope for is that the real economy grows causing real trade demand to grow. The speculative demand can stay well ahead and that's fine, but it's not sustainable if the difference between the two grow too large. this is correct. the point about the 7200 btc inflation is also. the point is that its predictable with a known decline rate unlike the USD. investors have calculated that rate into their models and expect a much higher price than what we have currently. in this sense Bitcoin is acting like a stock which will have an increased value in the future. |
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please check out my blog. i've got a reward posted up.
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someone sounds like they're caught in a short position.
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its been a while since i've looked at the level 2 but what strikes me now vs just a few months ago is the increase in liquidity we're seeing. there are bids and asks at every penny up and down both books. we didn't used to see this.
also the shape of the bid vs ask side is interesting. whereas most of the high volume sells are stacked up close to the price, most of the bids are placed further back while the total bid value book is much higher than the asks.
what this means to me is if the bulls can crack those asks up to $3.50 there should be relatively clear sailing to $4 and probably beyond.
this is totally expected behavior at this point in the cycle with whats going on in the general economy as well as the bitcoin economy. the bulls are back in business.
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the liquidity spigots have been thrown wide open by 6 central banks at once this past week. where is all this money going to go?
answer: Speculation
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ramping. another short squeeze in progress.
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Reverse psychology eh?  (I for one would be fine if prices would stay in the 2.X range for a long time, and you're right this probably will not happen... but I can still hope) the problem is that markets are irrational. this is a direct result of the CB's creating moral hazard via pumping of fiat. they literally WANT us to speculate to drive risk assets higher. thats all they have at this point and its going to work. otherwise watch your USD's devalue. the pendulum swung up to 32, down to 2, and now... |
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I'm not kidding lol
Chase, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and possibly TD (still negotiating)
TD? As in that Canadian Bank? That will be a big deal because there are so few good options for us at the moment. Hope that goes well.  TD the American one. Problem with Canada is the laws are a tad different. I can promise you once were done with USD then CAD is oir next stop! What are some options you would like to see? excuse me but is this not MAJOR news? i know how hard you've been working on projects but this is big if true. i'll believe it when i see it! |
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