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i think this is a good way to describe Bitcoin to the world.
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remember what i said about a wave 3...
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@Melbustus: you ok now?.......good......i thought so  |
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yeah.. this is life.... its ambiguous all the time...
I see your point that news are overall very bearish even in mainstream, but this fits to the third wave behavior.. third waves are "the point of recognition" where finally all is negative AND prices fall (and the contrarian view does not work anymore, expect for short term bounces from oversold conditions)
problem with this is sentiment is negative but the market is going UP. do you realize how lucky you are to be getting paid to do this? me; all i get is grief. some guys just have all the luck.  |
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It is interesting that one can make many arguments for the bullish case and as many strong ones also for the bearish case. I believe not 60%, not 80% , but at least 95% in the bearish case for stocks. And this is not in any way going against you personally, but solely about different p.o.v's. we will see soon what has been the right call.
For me, I am short again the NDX since 2392 with huge leverage. So far so good :-)
But I will liquidate the short position above 2406. Not a lot to lose, but a lot to win if stocks dive. AAPL as leading stock (today down 10.8 $) has made a nice island gap and unless it will be filled, will lead stocks down hard. As you may have seen, I issued a sell on APPL right after the earnings at 405 $.
And... I am long USDCHF which shows a strong impulsive wave UP and this pair is a leading indicator for the stock market and the DXY. net, I disagree 100% with your bias :-)).... well this is what makes a market, huh? LOL, you know how much i admire your work and its funny i feel like a traitor essentially going from the deflationary to an inflationary view. however things have changed since the 10/04 low. as you know, i understand Prechters deflationary view quite well and i still am a subscriber to his work. but this worldwide gov't bond selloff along with my cycle work just tells me Prechters Elliott waves won't work just yet. this represents a huge pot of additional fiat that has to be reallocated. of course i could be wrong. everything in the news says i'm wrong so it just might be so. however, my experience in markets tells me there always is some level of cognitive dissonance that just doesn't make sense to the average investor and presents opportunities for the savvy. i think this is one of those times. |
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i know i'm piling on now but i can't help but mention one other thing.
the rally in the $DXY from 10/27 up to these levels now at 77.58 is also comforting to me giving it plenty of room to fall under the 03/08 lows as i suspect. up to this point it had been falling too fast and the charts didn't quite line up for me to allow a multi month rally in stocks.
remember these are my views and you get what you pay for altho i guess i'm trying to disprove that theory.
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i also like the fact that Cisco is up. had really good earnings last nite. could be an indicator of a big decade long change.
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i REALLY like this. where have we seen this before?:  |
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big dump in UST's just now! TBT ramp!
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one other BIG thing going UP: Oil
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if i'm right and we're forming a bull flag, then according to Elliott Wave, this would be wave 2 off the bottom with a big wave 3 up to follow which are typically the longest and strongest.
i can easily see the fundamentals play out this way with the ECB announcing somewhere along the line here a formal monetization plan for sovereign bonds.
the other reason i'm so bullish is that the CDS buyers have been stuffed big time by the ISDA. all these insurance contracts that were set to blow up the system based on the Greek debt haircuts were NOT allowed to go off and probably never will be. i personally know hedge fund managers who were killed by this move. this means wholesale dumping of these "assets" along with the sovereign bonds. where do they then put the money? into the most underperforming asset of the last decade...
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basically all yesterday did was to begin to create a bull flag which, based on the move up off the 10/4 lows, should continue upward.
i like the fact that pm's AND UST's are down as that represents 2 sources of USD's to be reallocated toward stocks.
edit: not to mention that $DXY is down.
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I finally opened a Bitcoinica account and put in a sell at 1:2 leverage. So far I have made 1% on that even with Bitcoinica's enormous spread. I think it will pay off pretty well.
As long as you don't use too much leverage should be fine |
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Hey Cypherdoc, I have not been studying the stock market and my charts don't go back very far, but it looks to me that DJI climbs five waves since 2009 (after what was clearly a major correction) with today perhaps midway through a sideways correction. This implies both a bounce back down to the summer lows as well as a large third wave rally much later. What's Prechter saying these days -- Head and shoulders since the late 90's?
good timing. he issued an interim report today that i just finished reading. he thinks it down from here for good. him or me?  |
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