6/1/13, network hash rate 156T.  10/1/13, network hashrate 1450T.

3% to 5% fluctuations in network hashrate on a daily basis.  Someone "hiding" 2% of the network hashrate would not be discovered.

So say a vendor builds 1T daily for its customers, but delays shipping by 3 days.  It can now hash with 3T paid for by customers.

Add 200G daily to the self-mine and you add 1T weekly to your self-farm, all paid for by customers.  ("we're shipping 800G daily, we're great".  Yeah, right.)

At the end of four months the vendor has 20T on the network, paid for by customers. ("we shipped 100T, we're great".  Yeah, right.)   A blip on the difficulty at 1.5%, but good for $10,000 daily in coinbase, $3.5 million annually, paid for by your customers, thanks.

Proof? none.  Do I believe it could be true? absolutely.  Are there 20T of customer's miners unshipped? plenty of threads say so.  Destroying the customer faith and future sales? not judging by 28nm "product" pre-orders. Unethical? yes ... that's the fun part.

EDIT:  They could even say, "we reserve 20% of our mfg capability for our own equipment, nothing wrong with that".  I guess, although 20T of customers waiting for miners paid for 8 months ago might disagree.

No one is talking about "no miners".

The debate is, "buy gear now, or invest in BTC now".  The answer is, "unless you can get gear in hand tomorrow at less than $10/GH/s, you're better off investing in BTC".

If no more mining gear were ever purchased starting today, the network would remain static forever (once all existing pre-orders were filled), and BTC would be secure forever.

I've found a new thread to be dumb in.

I'm seeing people say, "0.07BTC/GH/s" is a good buy on CEX.  That's $15.

I'm seeing 1GH/s mining $0.25 daily, max, for the next couple days, then $0.020 daily for ten days, then $$0.15 daily for ten days, etc, totalling:

25
20
15
12
9
7
5
4
3
2
1

less than $11, forever, not counting BTC future value, which I'm also not counting in the $15 purchase price.

So are the hashrate buyers on CEX betting on the mining decisions of stupid people?  Is CEX a stupidity exchange?  Great idea!

If only one CPU in the universe had been mining from 2009 to now, the BTC supply would be ~85% of what it is now.

But what if you get in a car accident 2 years and 2 months from now, and you're taking painkillers, and you leave the book in the car, and you use a false birthday at the hospital to get insurance, and you can no longer tell your left from your right, what then?

What organization will help you?

Will the 2014 buyer be a guy mining at home?

Somebody looking to own 0.01% of the 20P network hashrate (what a Monarch buyer is trying to get in today's 4P network - but sadly will end up with 10th of that) will be interested in a 2T miner, but won't the bigger players be willing to buy as big as can be made?  They won't be limited by electrical infrastructure.

Too many 8 and 9-minute blocks for a 50% jump.

More like a 26.7% jump, resulting in:

495,306,773

Here are 12 "words" that I can remember that aren't in any dictionary

thingy
depribe
weenus
integrous
prollums
pompatous
dickfor
tigger
"xxxxxxxx" (my last name, shared by fewer than 100 people worldwide - okay, that's probably on some list)
sadistics
skullfuck
dickstain

Most people could come up with their own list - probably less twisted, immature, and pathological - but still their own list.

I could arrange my 12 "words" in several ways to make several passphrases, and I would bet all my BTC (I don't have any) on any of them.

Notice blockchain.info uses an average power consumption of 650W/Gh/s to calculate the "profit margin".  That power consumption estimate is 60 to 100 times too high.

The sad part is blockchain.info has been notified about this error numerous times by numerous people, including the venerable organofcorti, but blockchain.info apparently doesn't care.  Occasionally the MSM picks up this inaccurate number from blockchain.info and provides fuel for the naysayers and doubt for the curious.

All of which isn't to say you should get another miner.  DeathAndTaxes has a thread somewhere showing the difficulty point where each of several named mining rigs should be turned off in the future because their BTC return will be less than the cost of their electricity consumption. 

But that's not true for the network as a whole, yet, not by a long shot.

Close up on a keyboard and monitor.  An unseen person, the LONE TYPIST, played by the hands of Jason Alexander,  sits and begins typing, his hands rapidly entering digits into a bitcoint-gt GUI.

CUT to a massive control room, dominated by a giant screen showing the blockchain, recent transactions, top wallets and balances, and the BTC/USD exchange rate. Dozens of men monitor consoles and move images on and off the screen. 

CUT to hands of LONE TYPIST.  He hits "enter".  His monitor shows "TRANSACTION COMPLETE" and a long list of BTC addresses with massive balances.  As the camera watches, the balances  begin to decrease, each address going to zero.  This process will last for several minutes as the camera cuts back and forth from this monitor.

CUT to control room.  Unnoticed, the BTC/USD exchange rate dips slightly.  One of the top wallet addresses suddenly highlights red, and a soft alarm rings throughout the room.  People look up, surprised.

CUT to closeup of GMAXWELL, played by Phillip Seymour Hoffman

                                                                              GMAXWELL
                                                                         Wait, isn't that ......?

CUT to closeup of GAVIN ANDRESEN, played by Gary Oldman

                                                                              GAVIN ANDRESEN
                                                                          It can't be.... can it?

CUT to BTC/USD exhange rate, starting to drop faster.

CUT to LONE TYPIST'S monitor.  Several of his onscreen wallet balances have fallen to zero, and several more are dropping.

CUT to control room.   Several top addresses on the control room screen are now flashing red.

CUT to closeup of TOODUMBFORBITCOIN, played by Brad Pitt, watching the control room screen.

                                                                       TOODUMBFORBITCOIN
                                                                                  It's Satoshi.

CUT  to control room screen.  All previous images disappear, to be replaced by the LONE TYPIST, played by George Takei, looking directly through the fourth wall into the control room.

                                                                        LONE TYPIST
                                               Greetings from the genesis block, my friends. 

                                                                           GMAXWELL
                                                                         Who are you?

                                                                            LONE TYPIST
                                 You know who I am, as surely as you know the Merkle root of Block number 459027.

                                                                            GMAXWELL
                                                              Prove it!  Prove you're him!!

                                                                             LONE TYPIST
                                 And tell me Gregory, how can I do that?  How can I prove I'm Satoshi Nakamoto?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(to be continued)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, smart people, how can Satoshi Nakamoto prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, in the flesh?

The subject and his sated defender.  $30 out of BFL petty cash, well spent.  (And a tax writeoff, too!)

That quote would make a nice banner ad for your vendor.

You don't say when your original order was or what you paid.  Until you provide those figures, we'll guess February 2013 and $60,000.

Your 1500Gh/s represents 0.0004 of the network today.
The network mined $900,000  today, which gives you $360.

Let's let difficulty increase 33% for each of the next eight 11 day periods.

Period one:  $4000 to you (or your buyer)
Period two:  $3000 to you (or your buyer)
Period three:  $2250 to you (or your buyer)
Period four:  $1750 to you (or your buyer)
Period five:  $1350 to you (or your buyer)
Period six:  $1050 to you (or your buyer)
Period seven:  $800 to you (or your buyer)
Period eight:  $600 to you (or your buyer)

So $15,000 to you or your buyer in the next three months, and $2000 in the three months after that, and $300 in the three months  after that and dust after that. 

So you're offering a machine that will print $18,000, minus the electricity.  We'll leave BTC upvalue out of it, cause the buyer can buy BTC today and realize that profit.

What's a good price today for what you paid $60,000 for 8 months ago? How about $15,000?  $12,000?  $9,000? 

Your vendor is asking $15,000 for the same product, delivered some time after March, 2014.  That product will make about $2000 for its buyer.

BTW, if your vendor had delivered in February, 2013, when you presumably ordered, you would have mined BTC at 100 times the rate your machine mines now.

Finally, here is the moment when the BLITBU (or his sychophant) shows up, not to answer customer questions, or explain his company's delays, or aplogize for past delays, but to say, ".... if we had done what we said we'd do, all our customers would be just as screwed as they are now, which means we're a good company for delaying 8 months and more".

Last word:  You are to be commended for offering a product in hand for sale, and not a preorder deal.

 

FTFTBLITBU

We're putting a very powerful bomb in the car, linked by satellite to the seller's wallet.dat.  If the payment doesn't show up in the seller's wallet within two hours of the purchase, the bomb will go off next time someone turns on the car's ignition. 

none ....  I'm too dumb for bitcoin

Oops, my mistake. Thank you for correcting.

I was reading the US chart at this URL:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/chart-2-3rds-of-global-solar-pv-has-been-connected-in-the-last-2.5-years

The worldwide numbers are 110GW by the end of 2013, and 200GW by the end of 2015.

So 2000Ph/s of solar electricty online now worldwide (assuming 10W/Gh/s and 20% capacity factor for solar electric), and 4000 to 12000Ph/s (or more) by the end of 2015, depending on ASIC power draw.

Already started. 

5GW of solar electric already installed worldwide.  At 20% capacity factor, that's enough to power 100 Ph/s 24/7 (assuming 10W/Gh/s).

By the end of 2015, there will be 12GW of solar installed worldwide, enough for 240Ph/s 24/7, or maybe three times that, considering power per hash should fall as ASIC chip mfgs shrink their design rules.

FTFH

A startup comes out of nowhere, gives BFL a one-year head start, and out-hashes BFL in less than a month.

Meanwhile, BFL will be trickling year-old 5GH and 30GH units for the next six months. 

Sometime in March, 2014, BFL may start shipping units that KnC is shipping today. 

What will the difficulty be in March relative to today?  4x?  6x?  8x? 

okay

okay

okay

That equation says, "it will cost $1500 in electricity to mine one BTC". 

If it costs $1500 to mine one $1500 BTC, why will anyone do it?  For the fees?

Electicity costs today are not 100% of the coinbase being mined. They are maybe 10%, probably closer to 5%. (Ignore Blockchain.info's 650W/Gh/s metric, which is  50x to 100x too high).

Using 10W/Gh/s and 3Ph/s network hash rate results in 30MW today being dedicated to mining.  Increase that tenfold (for the sake of argument) and you may need 300MW of electricty worldwide to mine BTC worth $1500 each.  The worldwide generation of electricity today is about 3000 GW.

BTC mining consuming 0.01% of the world's electrical power (say 0.02% of electrical energy, being 24/7 usage) doesn't sound scary to me.

The US alone will install 1.5GW of solar power in 2014, which, given solar power's 20% capacity factor, will cover BTC usage nicely, even in the 10x increase scenario.

Somebody smart should WAG the following:

How much would the mining companies have to pool/invest in a BTC buy on the exchanges to bump the price sufficiently to start a new miner-rush?  Would it ROI for the mining companies?