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1701  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 31, 2013, 08:47:04 AM
The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map


Oh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only.
1702  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Ian Bakewell on: March 31, 2013, 07:02:10 AM
Never short more than what you can make from your long.
1703  Economy / Speculation / Re: We will have dollar parity all over again on: March 31, 2013, 06:51:39 AM
Maybe something like a "bitcent"? If the price ever goes to over $10000/BTC, then I think we just don't need to worry about this anymore, as people will adapt, in a variety of ways.
1704  Economy / Speculation / Re: Parity watch -> Niger on: March 31, 2013, 06:19:08 AM
Guys, please let us stay on topic.
1705  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 31, 2013, 02:06:21 AM
Does anyone else enjoy the eerie quiet?



It is Easter, so a little quiet is to be expected.

It's at best a enhanced weekend dip, in Asia we don't celebrate the Easter, so our attack should still continue.

question is: will it spill over to mtGox? I guess arbitrageurs will have a hard time moving fiat to mtGox and buffers are only that big.

I'd be surprised to see anything explosive to the upside before tuesday (no matter what chinese or any other market does).. actually wednesday more likely. But when the rocket fires that next stage... it'll shake the world who will watch in disbelief.


Suppose that some Chinese/Korean tycoons made up the idea to buy, Gox would be the only place with enough liquidity I guess.

My favourite scenario would be some bears who are ignorant about world cultural geography setting up walls, reckoning that there wouldn't be much buying during the Easter holiday, then gets gobbled up in a minute.
1706  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 31, 2013, 01:49:13 AM
Does anyone else enjoy the eerie quiet?



It is Easter, so a little quiet is to be expected.

It's at best a enhanced weekend dip, in Asia we don't celebrate the Easter, so our attack should still continue.
1707  Economy / Speculation / Re: North Korea readying rockets to aim at U.S. targets. DO PANIC AND BUY ? on: March 31, 2013, 01:38:33 AM
Think about it, if you had got a knife, and you had wanted to stab someone 10 times stronger than you, were you gonna warn him before you stab? If North Korea screams all over the place then that's when we can be sure it's nothing but bluff.
1708  Economy / Economics / Re: Scaled Days Destroyed: Is a record high FX rate freeing cold storage bitcoins? on: March 31, 2013, 01:38:06 AM
It's a great idea. It makes intuitive sense. Someone skilled in math could offer you better feedback than I can. Looking forward to some discussion among the tech and quant sides of the forum about how this could be implemented. Thanks!

I'm not sure what the benefit is.  It would have huge spikes when very old coins are spent.  We have the three graphs filtered by 1 week to 1 year that should do some of what the intention of scaled days destroyed should do. 

You can change the power factor until you're satisfied. And the benefit is exactly to warn people when large amount of old coins got moved, as this maybe someone ready to convert into fiats.
1709  Economy / Speculation / Re: Unexpected interest in Bitcoin from random people. on: March 30, 2013, 02:27:02 PM
… the concept itself can be replicated infinitely.
The counter argument is, that yes this is true, but the current incarnation of Bitcoin is based on a huge amount of collected computational power. Replicating _this_ amount of work is the real challenge, not the concept itself. You can even go further and explain, that you have to motivate and finance all this work which is ultimately based on power consumption. That doesn't come for free, neither automatically.

I would add that to motivate that amount of work and finance,  there would have to be something fundamentally different about the new protocol to make current Bitcoiners switch.  But it seems obvious that people prefer  a fixed supply that is autonomous.

Also being open source,  I'm sure the network would immediately adopt significant changes that were deemed beneficial.

And the people behind it are as far the best, alt-coiners would bitch about it but it's a fact. Right start with the creator, who open sourced everything then disappeared, this is quite a statement indeed.
1710  Economy / Speculation / Re: Unexpected interest in Bitcoin from random people. on: March 30, 2013, 02:22:30 PM
… the concept itself can be replicated infinitely.
The counter argument is, that yes this is true, but the current incarnation of Bitcoin is based on a huge amount of collected computational power. Replicating _this_ amount of work is the real challenge, not the concept itself. You can even go further and explain, that you have to motivate and finance all this work which is ultimately based on power consumption. That doesn't come for free, neither automatically.

This, what in some people's eyes are weaknesses of the bitcoin are actually its great strengths, if alt-coins were to compete with bitcoin, they have to survive:

1. Early-adopters pump and dump, I can just mine a lot and even scam you out and run;
2. More directly, a 51% attack.

Both cannot be rid of without great computation power back-up.
1711  Economy / Speculation / Re: The coming change at mtGox and its implications on: March 30, 2013, 01:42:26 PM
Are there people actively taking advantage of this deficiency? Gox is  lagging even if there are only several orders being placed in total, WTF?
1712  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Bitcoin Confiscation on: March 30, 2013, 08:57:18 AM
Or if your prosecutor is more of a "by the book" type: "Yes sir, I did store 500 bitcoins in an address(which is too long, who the fuck will remember that?) And I use this brainwallet setup to protect my private key, but unfortunately, I have totally forgotten about my passphrase, so perhaps these bitcoins are forever lost. And I think you can't prove otherwise." or just simply: "Sorry I lost my private key."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Key_disclosure_law#United_Kingdom

Your turn?
Sorry I transferred all my coins to this address 1............
That address does not belong to me or my wallet, I will give you the password for full access to my wallet files so you can be sure
As you well know that means I no longer own the coins nor can I transfer them to anyone.

i.e. have someone else, in advance, in another country, you trust to use for this if this event ever occurred Smiley

Brilliant, +1, and 0.1 BTC to your address, should arrive within today. Smiley
1713  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Bitcoin Confiscation on: March 30, 2013, 08:33:33 AM
Or if your prosecutor is more of a "by the book" type: "Yes sir, I did store 500 bitcoins in an address(which is too long, who the fuck will remember that?) And I use this brainwallet setup to protect my private key, but unfortunately, I have totally forgotten about my passphrase, so perhaps these bitcoins are forever lost. And I think you can't prove otherwise." or just simply: "Sorry I lost my private key."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Key_disclosure_law#United_Kingdom

Your turn?

The key is a shared secret/ the address is a multisig one, but unfortunately, the other people holding the keys are dead(give names of random people you know who recently died while in fact you hold all parts of the keys/secret) Sure, everyone knows if they can decide to convict you when they can't even prove you are not complying, there is nothing you can do. But still, bitcoin provides a maximal degree of protection and plausible deniability compared with other hoardable item.
1714  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Bitcoin Confiscation on: March 30, 2013, 07:25:38 AM
I am reminded of FDR's executive order 6102 of 4/5/1933 which, by the stroke of a pen, made the mere possession of gold a federal crime, and offered rewards to anyone who betrayed anyone else. Sure, a handful of brave people tried to hide their gold, but the practice became as marginalized and shunned as, say, drugs or porn today.

I hate to say it, but if possession of a bitcoin privkey became a federal felony, with informant rewards, I can think of a couple of relatives who would rat me out in a heartbeat.

Try brainwallet.

"Yes, good sir, I do own some bitcoins, but only 3 BTCs, here is my private key. What, 500? Who told you so? Some of my relatives? You can't just rely on some hear-says as evidences right?"

Or if your prosecutor is more of a "by the book" type: "Yes sir, I did store 500 bitcoins in an address(which is too long, who the fuck will remember that?) And I use this brainwallet setup to protect my private key, but unfortunately, I have totally forgotten about my passphrase, so perhaps these bitcoins are forever lost. And I think you can't prove otherwise." or just simply: "Sorry I lost my private key."
1715  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 30, 2013, 05:02:18 AM
I don't see the wall on clarkmoody either

i cant see them either

but they show up on bitcoinity.org

they also show up on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html

I guess that's why someone are selling small amounts into the wall, poor guy, mind the hidden wall. Wink
1716  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 30, 2013, 04:52:59 AM
That's a giant monolith of a bid wall... are we going through 100 on a Saturday???

No need to hurry, the longer it holds, the stronger a support it will become when it gets resurrected.
1717  Economy / Speculation / Re: Get ready for triple digits! on: March 30, 2013, 04:35:57 AM
I daresay we might hit triple digits over the weekend... If we do, there shall be a bear genocide unequaled in Bitcoin history Grin

You're an optimist.

I don't think too many of the permabears actually put any cash on the line.  They're just here for the trulzs.

Then who sold at $75?

Temporary bears/daytraders.
1718  Economy / Speculation / Re: Get ready for triple digits! on: March 30, 2013, 04:28:54 AM
I read the whole OP, yet I didn't find even once the phrase "secret rocket" gets mentioned. Roll Eyes
1719  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do not despair. Hitler got screwed by Bitcoin weekend dip too. on: March 30, 2013, 03:48:57 AM
Who made this video? Should have been a veteran forum resident, if not Vladimir then who?
1720  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 30, 2013, 02:47:19 AM
Possibly two people escrowing through Gox.
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