if you're so against gambling why are you hanging out in the Speculation Board?
Not sure he's against gambling. Looks like to me he's saying that traders are having a hard time accepting Bitcoin for trading due to the wild fluctuations and if Bitcoin doesn't get traction as a currency then it'll never succeed. I can see why merchants would have a problem with the volatility. I can see why speculators want to speculate. In the grand scheme of things I'd say if you let the merchants do their thing first, Bitcoin gains traction as a currency, everyone wins. If you let the speculators do their thing first, there might not be anything left. i think you have it backwards. first of all traders love volatility. second no one can control speculators or the markets so no sense knocking them. third if speculators are successful at driving the price of Bitcoin higher, this encourages merchants to jump in with innovative businesses related to Bitcoin. we saw this excitement in the Spring. so i don't begrudge speculators at all. this is how markets work. |
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God, i love the smell of napalm.
Have you invested everything you own into Bitcoin? I'm not complaining - I'm holding Bitcoin myself. no, just a fraction. but there's plenty more of where that came from. |
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God, i love the smell of napalm.
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A: lets pour a few million into Bitcoin. its oversold and maybe we can get a short squeeze going.
I find it so amazing that the bears refuse to recognize that. There are probably a Million of investors with sufficient funds to squash them without the effort really showing in their bank account. absolutely. this is the residua of years of inflation with USD's and leverage floating around everywhere unfettered. all it takes is just a wee bit of this to flow into Bitcoin and we will exceed the previous highs. |
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you seem totally incapable of admitting that Bitcoin volatility has been only 6 months old in a currency that has only been around since Jan 2009.
Volatility =! decreasing prices. Perhaps you think a 100x increase in price in mere months was somehow stable? Bitcoin exchange rates have been extremely volatile since day 1. And yes, thats to be expected from something new and unknown, but as long as it remains this volatile, its going to have a damn hard time gaining any sort of traction aside from gamblers and allowing bitcoin to achieve an exchange rate that is more reflective of its performance as a currency rather than purely the combined panic/hype sentiments and self fulfilling prophecies of gamblers. if you're so against gambling why are you hanging out in the Speculation Board? |
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Aye. The bulls have broken the line and the bears have fallen back to regroup. The bears now have the advantage of terrain and have already established a serious fortification at $3.5. Meanwhile, the bulls have broken the line but made little progress, their numbers are thin and are vulnerable to counter-attack! Unless reinforcements arrive soon the bears will fall upon their enemies and force them back to the $2 zone! Or maybe I'm just getting carried away.  It's going to get ugly in the next 24 hours. I'm sure of it. Today is the 3rd consecutive day of buying since the low. The market has not sustained more than 3 days of buying since early June just before the start of the crash, and odds are against it happening now. LOL! i know you look like your avatar. i just know it! |
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don't put money in Bitcoinica. when volatility spikes like this in a short squeeze Zhoutong will shoot clients first and you'll be allowed to ask questions later.
he's at risk bigtime since he's an illiquid leveraged market maker with a poor data feed to mtgox just like the rest of us and he'll most likely go down too taking longs with him as well.
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just to reiterate and update Fridays action in the REAL economy of stocks, commods, and bonds which i'm sure most of you here don't follow as closely as i do:
1. stocks rallied big and broke up and out of a bear flag and look to rally for months.
2. US Treasury bonds continue to be sold off unleashing HUGES sums of USD's looking for a new home.
3. commodities like oil, gold, silver, and miners took off as well.
4. the USD took a big dump meaning leverage has returned to the markets in general. IOW, speculators are borrowing or shorting USD's to bid up investments of all kinds.
what professionals call this is the return of RISK ON. which means all speculative investments like Bitcoin go back on the table and are targets of speculative froth. its not surprising to me that we're seeing this 50% rally right now. it makes total sense. if you believe in Bitcoin, you should buy it now b/c there are plenty of others right behind you. and they don't just come from the smallish Bitcoin community that we have here and that most of you assume are the only players in this space.
that huge bid wall thats following the price up is REAL.
How long is this going to go on? Do you believe in the European plan? I am asking honestly - probably nobody believes the plan, but still the market rallies. the move out of US Treasuries is a game changer. everyone knows the biggest debtor of all, the US of A can never pay back its debts. if you look at the daily price chart of TLT its done a perfect double top after a huge run up in anticipation of Operation Twist. it was a headfake and now all that money from the biggest bond bubble in history is flowing out looking for risk on plays, mainly in equities. the US Treasury market is the largest on earth and the biggest in history, dwarfing the stock market. alot of these USD's will go into currencies. hedge funds, professional investors, banks all look at the potential investments on the table; stocks, bonds, commods, oil, gold/silver, miners, Bitcoin. investors usually ask themselves whats overpriced, underpriced, cheap, expensive, overbought, oversold, etc. i can easily see professional investors looking over the table: Q: whats this over here, Bitcoin? i thought it was done? A: no, still hanging around. Q: didn't it get hacked? A: the exchange did but the source code didn't. Q: is Gavin still around? A: yes. Q: how about those other guys, Stefan Thomas, Amir Taaki, and Jeff Garzik? A: they're still there too. Q: God, i thought they would've given up by now if Bitcoin really was a ponzi. A: nope. Q: any improvements in security? A: tons. consumers are now protected by encryption and mtgox hasn't suffered another attack. Q: really? how much is it now? A: $2 Q: you're kidding. didn't you say it acts like gold? a limited supply? A: yes Q: well, our gold/silver plays aren't doing so well. A: lets pour a few million into Bitcoin. its oversold and maybe we can get a short squeeze going. |
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just to reiterate and update Fridays action in the REAL economy of stocks, commods, and bonds which i'm sure most of you here don't follow as closely as i do:
1. stocks rallied big and broke up and out of a bear flag and look to rally for months.
2. US Treasury bonds continue to be sold off unleashing HUGES sums of USD's looking for a new home.
3. commodities like oil, gold, silver, and miners took off as well.
4. the USD took a big dump meaning leverage has returned to the markets in general. IOW, speculators are borrowing or shorting USD's to bid up investments of all kinds.
what professionals call this is the return of RISK ON. which means all speculative investments like Bitcoin go back on the table and are targets of speculative froth. its not surprising to me that we're seeing this 50% rally right now. it makes total sense. if you believe in Bitcoin, you should buy it now b/c there are plenty of others right behind you. and they don't just come from the smallish Bitcoin community that we have here and that most of you assume are the only players in this space.
that huge bid wall thats following the price up is REAL.
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Some short sellers were liquidated, unfortunately.
yes, how unfortunate. |
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do you think gold is a bad investment given its volatility over the last decade despite it being close to the best investment over that period of time? Again you seem utterly unable to see the difference between investing/gambling and the usefulness of a currency as a facilitator for conducting trade. Yes, I think gold is a bad way to conduct trade, no one uses gold to pay for their bread. but if he has a profitable USD business and he believes in Bitcoin, why not do it this way?
Why on earth would he risk his profitable business on the moodswings of a bunch of daytraders? Clearly you have never done any actual business. of course for the average business a currency which has zero fluctuation would be ideal. yes, i own my own business thank you. you seem totally incapable of admitting that Bitcoin volatility has been only 6 months old in a currency that has only been around since Jan 2009. |
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Referring to your OP: This type of mentality is just as bad as the speculative bubble, only in reverse. The thing with the downtrend we had since June is that it’s been a slow, sustained bleeding. It reflects the permabullish mentality many here share, always buying back the Bitcoins. I don’t know if this trend is going to be broken; it’ll depend on how big the core of true Bitcoin supporters is. it also depends on the number and size of the sellers/shorters. i think the selling/shorting pressure has dissipated. theres only so far the price can fall before the fundamentals of Bitcoin reassert themselves and deep down the Bears know it. |
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i submit that any merchant who believes in Bitcoin, especially if he has speculative juices in him, accept Bitcoin in payment hand over fist to accumulate as many as possible now w/o expending USD's before the true equilibrium value of Bitcoin is achieved, which IMO is WAY higher than what it is today. thats my opinion.
Spoken like a true gambler. A merchant has to pay for his stuff in $/EURO/Yen whatever. Gambling on the rise of "foreign" currencies is not what a merchant does, its what a speculator does. A merchant will want to protect himself from currency swings through hedging, even for swings as minor as what have between dollar and euro's etc. The volatility of bitcoin makes that a complete joke. spoken like a linear thinking, uncreative, narrow-minded conservative. but thats ok. you act like Bitcoin has had many decades to prove itself but failed. the market is thin b/c its so new. of course theres volatility. do you think gold is a bad investment given its volatility over the last decade despite it being close to the best investment over that period of time? IMO, the easiest or safest way to "gamble" on the future of Bitcoin is to offer services or goods for it, put them away for safe keeping, then wait. of course he can't do this for 100% of his income but if he has a profitable USD business and he believes in Bitcoin, why not do it this way? |
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it starts off slow, with plenty of downside retraces to lure the shorts back in. the price ramps are short but vicious destroying small pockets quickly. Zhoutong will assist greatly in this by liquidating his shorts to protect himself, much to the chagrin and anger of his acct holders. the shorts that have made lots of money in the past refuse to believe whats happening and imperceptibly don't notice their green balances being whittled away. arrogance sets in, like this guy Nagle, but pretty soon those green balances turn red.
denial turns to anger turns to arrogance turns to fear turns to capitulation. the psychology is wonderful to watch.
Sounds exactly like what we bulls experienced in June, but now even you admit it’s been a bubble?  Anyway, it’s not like I’m not enjoying this. Let’s see if we can reclaim this long-term trendline!  Breaking 3 atm. The last time we broke 3, we went parabolic to 32$. i don't get what you're saying. i've never thought its been a bubble which is why i've never sold a Bitcoin, just accumulated on the way down (too soon yes). but thats ok as i believe the longterm fundamental equilibrium price is way higher than 32. |
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What you mean to say is that YOU don't like volatility.
No; what I mean is anyone wanting to use bitcoin as a currency and trade tool, rather than a lottery doesnt like this volatility. Its one of the major factors holding bitcoin from gaining more widespread acceptance (and thereby also, from increased price stability, nice catch 22). Anyway, im not naive enough to expect posting will make anyone stop playing the lottery, but Im gonna voice my opinion whether you like it or not. this is just your opinion of things which could easily be wrong. i submit that any merchant who believes in Bitcoin, especially if he has speculative juices in him, accept Bitcoin in payment hand over fist to accumulate as many as possible now w/o expending USD's before the true equilibrium value of Bitcoin is achieved, which IMO is WAY higher than what it is today. thats my opinion. |
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If enough people believe your predictions, it becomes a self full fulling prophecy no matter what you predict. Just about the *only* thing determining BTC price currently is short term speculation, so what you are really predicting is the behavior of short term speculators. It makes no sense, and frankly, its undermining bitcoin's usefulness as a trade tool I wish Satoshi had implemented a "tobin tax".
thats just not true. look at all the recent developments and improvements: encrypted wallets, better DDoS protection, improved blockchain download times, Android apps, BitPay, Casascius's POS system, Casascius's Physical Bitcoins, increased mtgox security with direct cash deposits services, death of the altchain competitors, etc, etc, etc. bears have blinders on. |
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The real short squeeze in bitcoin world will push bitcoin price to 20-30$ or higher even if for short time. Some tiny move from 2.5 to 3 is not a short squeeze at all, even if someone got a margin call. Wait for massive amount of margin calls one causing another and as result a violent parabolic move up. That would be the squeeze. The market is fairly shallow and the squeeze can be huge.
Potentially interesting strategy is to place some sell orders now in 20-30-50 range even if just to ease short's pain. lol.
what the kid shorts dealing in a penny stock like instrument such as Bitcoin don't realize is that the upside price ramp potential is infinite while the downside profit potential is limited from here to zero. with all of Bitcoins potential and its inability to be hacked, the bulls have so much more to gain and take perverse joy in killing shorts for blood sport. it starts off slow, with plenty of downside retraces to lure the shorts back in. the price ramps are short but vicious destroying small pockets quickly. Zhoutong will assist greatly in this by liquidating his shorts to protect himself, much to the chagrin and anger of his acct holders. the shorts that have made lots of money in the past refuse to believe whats happening and imperceptibly don't notice their green balances being whittled away. arrogance sets in, like this guy Nagle, but pretty soon those green balances turn red. denial turns to anger turns to arrogance turns to fear turns to capitulation. the psychology is wonderful to watch. |
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Now that I've got that out of the way: let's kill some shorts, I want to make a profit!  LOL! coming from you, who's normally quite conservative and measured, this is hilarious!  |
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liquidate their asses Zhoutong.
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It will soon enough.
But there is no fundamental factors to support this rise. Number of nodes is decreasing and the inflation rate is constant. there was nothing fundamental about the long fall. |
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