Are you sure you would have kept holding, no matter what all kinds of jackasses were fucking around with in the pandemonium that is the illiquid bitcoin market between August 2011 and August 2012?(I believe you have heard about the Bitcoinica farce and the BTCST saga)
Yes, likely. After all it was just $1k, and I had plenty of other things to do during 2011-2012. Just bothering to think about selling it would have been too much.. I almost never sell anything. I still own mining stocks that peaked in May, 2006, you believe me now?!  What I am saying about the recent trades, this is just a sorry silverbug trying to play catch up, and no chance I will be numbered with the large holders ever, that train is long gone  How is it going with your plan to sell silver for bitcoins?  |
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Interesting read. My friend tried to convince me to buy bitcoins that time, but I thought it was too small, and too risky, too illiquid, too much hassle. Well I got what I wanted, buying it now at 500x the price  You were right with that decision, or I would be pointing finger at your nose right now:" So you were that fricking goddamn manipulator?" No chance. What I am doing now is to eat the loss of $999000 when bitcoin went up from $0.1 to $100, but buying the same number of coins regardless. This way I can cap my losses at the said amount. If I bought any less than I considered back then, my losses would likely amount to infinity (when dollar is scrapped and bitcoin tends to infinity in terms of dollars). Yes it hurts to make a $1 million mistake. Good that I didn't consider investing $10k back then, the mistake would be too big to bear... Are you sure you would have kept holding, no matter what all kinds of jackasses were fucking around with in the pandemonium that is the illiquid bitcoin market between August 2011 and August 2012?(I believe you have heard about the Bitcoinica farce and the BTCST saga) |
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Interesting read. My friend tried to convince me to buy bitcoins that time, but I thought it was too small, and too risky, too illiquid, too much hassle. Well I got what I wanted, buying it now at 500x the price You were right with that decision, or I would be pointing finger at your nose right now:" So you were that fricking goddamn manipulator?" |
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Hehe but there has not screen shot at the right moment  And people sound uninterested, and there was that guy saying it's too much speculation.  I think this is just because people were wary of the coinlab deal and pulled their coins out of Gox until they know whats going on. True value is 20$. I would be fine with a true value of $20 though , if you meant the real economy has a size of about $ 240M, it would be totally capable of supporting a market cap of $ 1B. |
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Hehe but there has not screen shot at the right moment And people sound uninterested, and there was that guy saying it's too much speculation. |
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You know what, there was a thread about Bitcoin passing $1M market cap, and people were like" It did? meee, let's get back to work."
We need to think in $B's now Oak  OK! Here is that thread when bitcoin market cap passed $ 0.001B https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1672 |
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You know what, there was a thread about Bitcoin passing $1M market cap, and people were like" It did? meee, let's get back to work."
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One billion market cap, gentlemen.
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Meanwhile, the American bulls are doing this:  |
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Besides Gox lag, another risk maybe the loss of access to Bitfinex itself, which somehow happened last night when I was desperately trying to return my loans. Losing access for a considerable period of time when the market is volatile may even result in many margin positions unable to be closed until it's too late, something potentially fatal to both the user and the site.
I understand such risk maybe impossible to completely eliminate, but want to discuss what can possibly be done to improve the status quo.
Hi Oakpacific, Was Bitfinex unaccessible last night? Did you have an error message or was it just a timeoiut (loading forever)? This is a very serious issue, we have to make sure Bitfinex is always available. About this issue, you have to know that the backend server (trading engine, margin check,...) is on another server than the front-end one. So even if the front-end site is somehow unresponsive, the backend server continue to work and close positions if they have to be closed. Also, we are curently taking steps to prevent too much losses in case of a flash crash. I can't get too much details right now, but this will be an insurance for us that the traders never end up with a negative balance. More later. best regards, Raphael I don't know how technically feasible or desirable this is (I am not an IT guy), but perhaps it is a good idea to have 2 redundant backend servers that communicate with eachother (so 1 is like a backup server that is being constantly updated). Should the main server crash, the second one can take over the margin calls etc. I think it would be better if Bitfinex just support closing margin positions with E-mails, that would be much more practical. One does not exclude the other. Closing a position with email would indeed be nice when there is a problem with the front-end. However if price tanks while a trader isn't paying attention, automatic liquidation needs to be enforced. Emails won't help in that case. AH, I see, you talked about the backend glitch, in that case yeah, though it has to depend on how big Bitfinex will grow into. |
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When it's not trading for more than $10.
Agreed That's when the mega bubble time will really come. |
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Besides Gox lag, another risk maybe the loss of access to Bitfinex itself, which somehow happened last night when I was desperately trying to return my loans. Losing access for a considerable period of time when the market is volatile may even result in many margin positions unable to be closed until it's too late, something potentially fatal to both the user and the site.
I understand such risk maybe impossible to completely eliminate, but want to discuss what can possibly be done to improve the status quo.
Hi Oakpacific, Was Bitfinex unaccessible last night? Did you have an error message or was it just a timeoiut (loading forever)? This is a very serious issue, we have to make sure Bitfinex is always available. About this issue, you have to know that the backend server (trading engine, margin check,...) is on another server than the front-end one. So even if the front-end site is somehow unresponsive, the backend server continue to work and close positions if they have to be closed. Also, we are curently taking steps to prevent too much losses in case of a flash crash. I can't get too much details right now, but this will be an insurance for us that the traders never end up with a negative balance. More later. best regards, Raphael I don't know how technically feasible or desirable this is (I am not an IT guy), but perhaps it is a good idea to have 2 redundant backend servers that communicate with eachother (so 1 is like a backup server that is being constantly updated). Should the main server crash, the second one can take over the margin calls etc. I think it would be better if Bitfinex just support closing margin positions with E-mails, that would be much more practical. |
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I think Cypherdoc bought cheaper than Loaded.
Yeah I know but Loaded has always delivered on every call he made so far AFAIK Maybe because he is the cause of the subsequent rally . Maybe Cypherdoc is Loaded. Well, if Cypher somehow issued warnings before buying opportunities it would hurt the interest of his subscribers, also they seem to display completely different personalities, Cypher is somehow fanatic, while Loaded has a cool demeanor. |
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the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin: +1400%
Gold: -6%
GPL: -36% silverbox long
Diff: +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing
This isn't the right way to calculate this. The proper way is to see how many ounces of gold x bitcoins can buy, where x is the number of bitcoins an ounce of gold could have bought. To make the numbers more manageable I will use a gram of gold: March 13, 2012: 1 GAU could buy 54.33 USD or 10.062 XBT. March 26, 2013: 10.062 XBT could buy 809.99 USD or 15.768 GAU. Therefore there was a profit of 1476.8%, far higher than your estimate of 1406%. all i'm doing is comparing their individual appreciation rates against themselves and then each other since 3/13/12: 1. gold: 1690 on 3/13/12 vs. today 1598 or 1598/1690=6% loss. 2. Bitcoin: 5.4 on 3/13/12 vs. today 81 or 81/5.4=1400% gain. Sure we understand your method. I haven't spent the 5min to work out whether it is mathematically valid or not because I don't think that's what you really want. I think you really want to ask yourself "How much better off am I since I moved from gold to bitcoin." The script I posted gets you that number because it takes the ratio of the amount of $ you would have today if you had invested in bitcoin vs gold. And the answer today (using 87.70 and 1598.70) is 1716%By the way, cypherdoc a few days ago there was a discussion as to whether this thread helped any newbies and I would like to tell you that it helped me tremendously. In early 2012 these forums were full of kids, scammers and basically ppl who considered bitcoin to be a game where normal morality and laws don't apply. Your posts gave me hope that the potential of this currency could actually be realized and also affirmed my own belief that gold was fully saturated. To me he is just the opposite of my trader stereotype(that would be S3052), as he is so fanatic and full of love for bitcoin, but when it comes to the price I fully concede defeat, I have never expected it to be near $100 this early, something I only considered possible about a year later. I wasn't referring to his tone but to his content. Sorry, I was kind of doing a small talk. |
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I might sell in bitcoin.de once I have finished the most urgent purchases first Did you mean "buy"? Not sure because it might make sense for you to sell there, too. means "sell". Maybe I will start doing it in a distant future, after my core position is established. What's your core position? A bitcoin overlord? |
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All the action seems to have come from the Eurozone today -- all movement was during morning hours in Europe and afternoon in Asia.
During US daylight hours, things seem to have slowed down.
Quite a milestone in China, we breached CNY500. That's quite a chunk of change.
Random theory: A lot of the new money is coming from Asia and Europe while most of the old Bitcoins were mined and held by Americans. As the new money comes in the old, weak, feeble hands of the Americans dump. Now we have ASICs  , here is the grand plan of the imperial army: 1. Mine a few 10Ks of bitcoins; 2. Putting up a Great Chinese wall, in case it's not enough fear, throw a few stones of coins down and scare the shit out of weak American hands; 3. Buy all the coins they dump at low price points; 4. PROFIT!! |
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the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin: +1400%
Gold: -6%
GPL: -36% silverbox long
Diff: +1406% advantage Bitcoin and Growing
This isn't the right way to calculate this. The proper way is to see how many ounces of gold x bitcoins can buy, where x is the number of bitcoins an ounce of gold could have bought. To make the numbers more manageable I will use a gram of gold: March 13, 2012: 1 GAU could buy 54.33 USD or 10.062 XBT. March 26, 2013: 10.062 XBT could buy 809.99 USD or 15.768 GAU. Therefore there was a profit of 1476.8%, far higher than your estimate of 1406%. all i'm doing is comparing their individual appreciation rates against themselves and then each other since 3/13/12: 1. gold: 1690 on 3/13/12 vs. today 1598 or 1598/1690=6% loss. 2. Bitcoin: 5.4 on 3/13/12 vs. today 81 or 81/5.4=1400% gain. Sure we understand your method. I haven't spent the 5min to work out whether it is mathematically valid or not because I don't think that's what you really want. I think you really want to ask yourself "How much better off am I since I moved from gold to bitcoin." The script I posted gets you that number because it takes the ratio of the amount of $ you would have today if you had invested in bitcoin vs gold. And the answer today (using 87.70 and 1598.70) is 1716%By the way, cypherdoc a few days ago there was a discussion as to whether this thread helped any newbies and I would like to tell you that it helped me tremendously. In early 2012 these forums were full of kids, scammers and basically ppl who considered bitcoin to be a game where normal morality and laws don't apply. Your posts gave me hope that the potential of this currency could actually be realized and also affirmed my own belief that gold was fully saturated. To me he is just the opposite of my trader stereotype(that would be S3052), as he is so fanatic and full of love for bitcoin, but when it comes to the price I fully concede defeat, I have never expected it to be near $100 this early, something I only considered possible about a year later. |
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Maybe all the of us bitcoiners should pool our bitcoin and buy a small country. :-)
Or converting every citizen of an island nation into a bitcoiner, that would be much easier. |
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