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1781  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin - The road to a SIX DIGIT price valuation on: July 24, 2023, 10:47:17 AM
I still believe that ETF effects on bitcoin price has been greatly exaggerated, although it will definitely have a positive effect on the price.
Do you believe that $500,000 per Bitcoin is merely an exaggeration by 2025 - 2026 considering Bitcoin's trajectory since 2010?
What I think is that ETF is not the only way we can reach $500k or even a million in the next couple of years although it can be a decent catalyst. In fact you should have seen my predictions a couple of years ago saying in this cycle (the one starting after 2018) price should have reached the ATH of $400k to $500k. I still believe that my prediction was correct, the only problem was the unprecedented economic events on a global scale which is what makes the prediction harder than any other time.

Quote
The context of the topic is in how Gold's ETF, during 2003, helped started a strong surge on its price, AND it's trading near its ATH despite going through different economic crashes/crises. It could probably happen for Bitcoin too after ETF approval, no?
That's True.
1782  Economy / Economics / Re: Food security in the world has been shaken by Russia's actions on: July 24, 2023, 07:28:14 AM
The mains purpose for the black sea grain deal as brokered by Russia and Ukraine was to make sure supply of grains in good quantity is spread around the poor nations of the world by the Ukraine through the back sea but from what we are getting from analysis of 32.9 million metric tonnes exported from Ukraine since August more than half of it were going to the developed and advanced nations that are well to do with just about 2.5% to the poor nations an export diversion that's closely monitored by UN reps and Turkey yet no alarm was raised about this.
It was last year that I said this deal is only going to benefit NATO while the propaganda machines in Europe were constantly talking about helping Africa with the deal. It was obvious from day one that Europe is desperately trying to fill their storages and diminish the effects of the food crisis in EU.
Today the stats are also showing that they did steal the food that was supposed to go to poor countries such as Africa. It is a lot higher than reported in the news.

The only reason why propaganda machines are active again and severely brainwashed people like OP are talking about food security in the "world" is because after this deal was broken Europe will start experiencing the food crisis that was going on in places like Africa to some extent.

P.S. This could also be another reason why US is increasing tensions in West Asia by destabilizing the whole region by activating its terrorist proxies considering that this is the land based route that is being established that could move goods including food stuff to Africa (and elsewhere) much quicker and safer without EU or US being able to steal any of it...
1783  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian ruble is scam on: July 24, 2023, 07:15:45 AM
The subject is too silly! First of all fiat currencies don't default, the governments default on their national debt. It also is not limited to Russia, it is true about all fiat currencies since every single government has been printing fiat nonstop and increasing the national debt which they eventually default. The only difference is the size of that debt and the speed at which it grows.
By all measures US dollar is the worst since it has has the fastest speed at which the national debt grows not to mention that it also has the biggest debt of all times which US government defaulted just recently.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
1784  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Obtaining legitimate wallets to try and crack them? on: July 24, 2023, 04:16:34 AM
They are all scam and some even give you trojans and stuff like that. If they were real and contained such massive amounts of bitcoin, they wouldn't have sold them in first place!

If you want to waste computing power and electricity it is much more profitable and productive to start mining some GPU minable PoW shitcoins and dump them in exchanges for bitcoin. There are a bunch of "whattomine" websites that can guide you and also there is a altcoin mining board which you can read and learn more.
1785  Economy / Economics / Re: Federal Reserve launches FedNow instant payment service on: July 24, 2023, 04:08:33 AM
If I could send money using this thing internationally to anyone why would I need bitcoin?
Do you seriously not understand the difference between centralized fiat (and its alternatives) and decentralized money that is bitcoin after 2 years of being in this forum? Or are you just joking around with this?
1786  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Found My Key, Uncompressed on: July 23, 2023, 05:58:31 AM
I do know that I can generate the address from the key as is but I tried to import the private key to a wallet and it said that it must be compressed to import?

Also, it requires a signature since it's P2PKH. Also, the block reward for mining it suppose to be 50 BTC that generates a new block. So, I also want to mine it if I can.
What is the name of the wallet you are importing your key into? Because the 3 highlighted statements above make that tool sound very suspicious since this is not the normal behavior of a normal wallet.
A normal wallet doesn't generate uncompressed keys but allows you to import or sweep them.
A normal wallet also doesn't require a signature when you import your key!
A normal wallet also doesn't have a "mining" option let alone with a 50BTC reward specially since the current reward is for a block is 6.25!
1787  Bitcoin / Electrum / Re: Dumb seeds phrases on: July 23, 2023, 05:51:07 AM
What were they thinking?
It's not possible to know motivation of all of them but this is pretty similar to using keys in low ranges (eg. key=1) and using known keys (like the one in bitcoin wiki page) or known mnemonics (eg. test vectors) or the silly brainwallets.
The reasons go from a silly "treasure hunt" which is basically a donation to anybody who can get there faster, to mistakes people made when testing these things with real money.
1788  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: How many combinations will there be? on: July 23, 2023, 05:46:22 AM
You seem to love helping out stranger looters and while you are at it, they will use whatever you or others provide to empty people's addresses "if they get the chance"!
Basic mathematics including combination which we learned in high school is not going to help you break ECC or solve ECDLP. Not to mention that one could find this information with a quick search in Google since as I said this is basic math. Tongue
1789  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Algorithms used in Bitcoin are expected to be strong until at least 2030 on: July 23, 2023, 04:58:42 AM
SEC estimated these years based on a simple extrapolation and haven't updated the document ever since
Quote
The extrapolations are also loosely based on a simple assumption similar to Moore’s law:
computing power will grow by a factor of about 216 every decade. Therefore, the minimum adequate
security level must increase by 16 bits every 10 years. Future revisions of this standard may
amend this.
This is why the table 3 in Standard for Efficient Cryptography v2 states that ECC with 128-bit security level (256-bit key size) protects until year 2040 (2030 is for ECC-224).
https://www.secg.org/sec1-v2.pdf

I believe the number is also based on MIPS years, that is the estimated amount of work performed in one year by a computer operating at the rate of one million operations per second. The values in SEC.1 v2 are from 2009.
1790  Economy / Economics / Re: New currency from BRICS countries on: July 22, 2023, 05:09:34 PM
~
China USD reserves are around 3 Trillon USD, so China itself will suffer huge blow if dollar collapse unless they get rid of there all USD holdings. Meanwhile there are news that 40 more countries are in line to join BRICS and this is enough to prove that the platform is getting popular globally. The most interesting part is that gulf countries are also taking interest in joining BRICS and if that happens then what will be fate of billion of USD that belongs to gulf countries but residing in US banks?
Interest in joining BRICS from all countries even from US-slave countries like France, shows the New World Order and the weakening of United States and the fiat they keep printing called dollar! However, this "weakening" is slowly happening and I don't think the chances of a catastrophic collapse is that high right now hence bag holding a lot of dollars in reserve while slowly dumping it as China is doing is the low risk move.

P.S. Is there any source that shows China's reserve currencies explicitly separated by their type? Because it seems like all sources including the state administration report an aggregated value of all assets (not just dollars) converted to dollar, it even states the change in value is due to "asset price changes" and I know some sources like worldbank reporting the $3.17 trillion include China's gold reserves in it.
1791  Economy / Economics / Re: New currency from BRICS countries on: July 21, 2023, 02:45:38 PM
I've thought BRICS would use BTC as their main currency especially to avoid sanctions and whatnot. But now I see that won't be the case with their plans to make a currency of their own backed by Gold.
As much as I like bitcoin but it is not yet ready for mass adoption, the price of it is too unreliable for such a large long term commitment like what BRICS countries are making. Imagine if you buy a million barrels of oil (what oil tankers usually carry) worth $80 million in bitcoin and the price drops by 10% which is a normal thing in bitcoin. That is $8 million loss. That's not favorable.
However a centralized currency created and controlled by them is a lot more reliable because they dictate its value (exchange rate) so it can be kept fixed.

At this point bitcoin is good for small size trades and as a small portion of the reserved assets of the country.
1792  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: 1 billion from Paramount movies on: July 21, 2023, 03:30:59 AM
In light of the recent pump in Dogecoin
That looks more like a dead cat bounce than a pump. A real pump is what happened in April and ended just as abruptly too when price reached 360+ satoshi (50%) or in November last year from 310 to 760 (145%).
Any pump now should be going back to above 300 sat at least, not what happened past week with a tiny rise from 213 to 240 satoshi (12%).

I also have no clue what any of this have to do with Hollywood! Cheesy
1793  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Brazil to launch CBDC, Github repo found on: July 21, 2023, 03:22:16 AM
They could have just hosted those documents on a website instead of on Github considering how Github is mainly a "code" sharing platform not documentation.
In any case a lot of countries have been working on their own centralized "digital" currency for a couple of years now and a handful of them even have working ones in testing phase. The Brazilian CBDC seems to also be one of the projects in the research phase being worked on for about 2-3 years which can also be found here: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/financialstability/digital_brazilian_real
Frankly, this is the first time that I have heard that the project has been in the works for years, meaning that this is not new. The first thought that came to my mind is that the CBDC currency project is currently being studied within the framework of the BRICS alliance to be the approved currency in exchanges between the member countries of the alliance, and I wonder if there is a relationship between the two projects, especially since we do not know how that currency will be created within the framework of an alliance without specification Who will have the authority to control the currency.
That's a good point. I have been wondering about this too and I wonder whether in the future the replacement for dollar is going to be one or more CBDC.

I suppose it is possible too because a CBDC is technically a new currency and can have different characteristics. I'm just theorycrafting here but something like digital-yuan (the Chinese CBDC currently in use) could have a fixed exchange rate but be only used within the bloc between "friendly" countries while with others (like US and EU) they trade using the old methods with the old always-decreasing exchange rates to stay in competition.

That way they could solve the problem with fiat in international trades to some extend while replacing dollar in most of their trades decreasing their dependence on it.
1794  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: US Presidential candidate announces plan to back the US dollar with Bitcoin on: July 21, 2023, 02:53:54 AM
That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard, although pretending to support bitcoin from candidate wannabes is not a new thing. It happened in the past elections in US too.

But this is dumbest because it is not even possible to do so. For starters POTUS is not capable of making such a fundamental change. The regime decides these things and they won't allow strengthening of bitcoin that threatens existence of the dollar.
Secondly due to the gigantic amount of dollar the the regime has printed so far the exchange rate they have to set for bitcoin (to be backing the dollar) has to be something like $10 million per bitcoin. That means shooting the price up and US is not capable of accumulating that much bitcoin to back its massive amount of worthless dollars.
Finally bitcoin is not gold that they can fool the world with by saying they have the backing gold safe and sound. They'd have to publish an address which anybody could verify and the world will know instantly if they break the ratio which we know they have no other choice but to do that. Over the past couple of months ever since the debt ceiling was raised they printed over a trillion dollars!!!
1795  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will You Return Hardware Wallet That Contains 3+ BTC in a Hotel Room? on: July 21, 2023, 02:42:55 AM
Not returning someone else's money you've found is stealing in my books, so obviously I'd return such a thing but most importantly I don't want others to do something like this to me (not return my money if I lose it some day) so I don't do it to others.
1796  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Segwit transaction with no witness stack on: July 20, 2023, 01:19:12 PM
My question is, why is it like that? Is it not forbidden for segwit transactions to have zero-length witness stacks?
It's fine to have no witnesses (zero length).
In a transaction with witness you have to have the same number of witness stacks as your inputs so when you have 7 inputs you have to have 7 witness stacks but some of those outputs that are being spent (like first and second) are legacy so there is no witness needed hence the empty witnesses (OP_0) but the others (like the third) have a witness stack hence the 4 items in that stack.
1797  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Is OP_PUSHDATA* not allowed in Segwit outputs? on: July 20, 2023, 01:03:04 PM
That's not it.
I'd say this is a terrible code to have in a library because it is supposed to handle things that are different and are not supposed to be treated or handled the same way.
For starters it is handling scripts and witnesses which are entirely different things. Scripts are scripts! They contain OP codes including PUSHDATA and are supposed to be interpreted to "build" the stack with the "operations" you have to perform. Hence the 4 branches handling 0x4c,0x4d,0x4e.
On the other hand witness is already a stack, it is not-supposed to be interpreted and it does not include OP codes including PUSHDATA. It only has count and size. The code also assumes you have read and discarded the count.

In simple terms this method handles apples and oranges at the same time which is why it looks weird.

In a script you have OP_PUSHDATA1 so the first 4 branches handle those with a condition that it is not-witness so that they know what data to "push to the stack" while the last branch (the else part) is handling the witness (not SegWit output or address) so it has to read a var_int (aka compact_int) indicating the size of the item that is already on the stack.
1798  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Wallets affected by low entropy mnemonic hack on: July 20, 2023, 05:25:04 AM
No one has compiled a list yet. You would probably have to look through the source code and see how they implement it and if its done according to standard.
A quick way to determine if a wallet is not using deterministic signing is to sign a transaction twice and see if the hash changes. If it did, the wallet is not using RFC6979 but if it didn't you still have to check the code to make sure.
Message signing should also work since the process is the same.
1799  Economy / Economics / Re: Russia and others, move to use Yuan instead of dollar. on: July 19, 2023, 06:43:50 PM
There is a thing that I don't understand. Some years ago I remember Apple or Barak Obama stated that Apple couldn't move factories from China to other country because Chinese laborers were highly qualified, efficient and fast. So, I don't really understand, if America is so dependent on China, why does China heavily invests in U.S. Treasury bonds and makes its own currency weak to keep low export fees? It could profit more if the USA is really dependent on China.
They "buy US debt" and keep their exchange rate low because they want to force US to be dependent on China. If we look at the history, like the past 40-50 years we have a very weak country with no economy to speak of and no production while the population is enormous (about 850 million) and 85% of them are living in absolute poverty. That is 720+ million people who had literary nothing.

40-50 years ago there were two powers the US and USSR and they were fighting. China took advantage and created that dependence, slowly but surely. That way they grew. US also had no choice but to give China all these benefits, from technologies to investment. Otherwise the communists China would have played a 100% USSR favored game.
But at some point US regime realized while they were busy trying to destroy their competitor USSR, China had been growing too much and US was already heavily depending on China.

Now here is the thing, this used to be China's strategy to grow. Today almost all countries have lots of relations with China so China no longer "needs" US like before. At the same time when US publicly announces that China's economic growth is a threat to US national security (ignore how absurd that is) they are in fact declaring war on China. So China also retaliates by screwing US, for example they dump $175 billion of the US bonds they were bag-holding, they join the dedollarisation wagon, they respond to the tariff war with tariff of their own, they disrupt exporting goods to US to disrupt their market, they manipulate the energy market to keep the prices up and damage US economy, they reduce or stop export of raw materials, and a lot more...

And there is another thing that I personally think is a huge bullshit. Why doesn't America produces goods in the USA? Labor is expensive? Then they shouldn't produce food, shouldn't provide postal service, shouldn't do tons of thing if we think that way. And labor isn't that cheap in China too. I think they are just exploiting their employees and they wont' be able to do the same in the USA. Or may be? Idk, I have heard that Amazon exploits its warehouse and delivery employees too.
It is super expensive to produce almost everything inside US because it is a capitalist democracy.
Certain things like food is a different matter, because US is massive and has lots of fertile land for farming so it is still possible to do domestically not to mention that food is considered a strategic good so there is no way in hell they'd let US be fully depended on another country for that.

Other things like "postal service" that you mentioned are "services" not products and sometimes they can not be outsourced, they have to remain domestic.
With products like a phone, there is always competition. If you manufacture a phone inside US and have to sell it for $5000 while China manufactures the same exact thing but for $500 you simply can not compete and nobody is going to buy the $5000 domestic phone! Not to mention that they won't even be able to afford to pay that much even if there were no alternative!!!
1800  Economy / Economics / Re: New currency from BRICS countries on: July 19, 2023, 05:44:04 PM
As you correctly pointed out, this is a gradual move where every country goes through the dedollarisation process

The 15th BRICS summit is going to be very interesting which will be held on 22 – 24 August (about a month from now) and some are saying the BRICS new currency will be revealed then. This could potentially have a significant effect on the ongoing dedollarisation around the globe.
I agree that a more decentralization of global currencies, it will be better and less shocks from any big change in the USA. and US dollar. However, new currency from multilateral union will have many challenge to increase and maintain their power as well as competitiveness in global economy.

In 2022, The Euro currency lost its parity with the US. dollar is example. BRICS currency will have same or even bigger challenge because it is a newborn currency and we have to think BRICS are stronger then the Euro zone or weaker.
Exactly. The bigger problem that sometimes is overlooked is that these currencies (BRICS or EURO) are considered as replacement for dollar which means United States regime will do everything in its power to prevent it from happening. In fact US is the only regime in the world that if you dump their currency they consider it as an act of war. They've bombed countries for less...

As for the fate of BRICS currency, I think the chances of success is higher than euro. One main reason is that members of BRICS are more independent than Europeans and unlike the time euro was created, today US is weak.
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