Link or it did not happen.  

I agree with the overall concept of a cycle that is upcoming, but the timeline for the depicted cycle does not seem to be well though through or realistic (even though it could happen). 

I don't necessarily agree that we are going to see more bottoms this year, or that it is an essential ingredient, even though it could happen.

I also don't believe that it is realistic that we are going to see 3-4 years of a bull market.. seems more likely that we will see exponential runs, which seems to be traits of a relatively nascent market (system), so it is quite possible that we could experience 2-3 upward runs before 2024, and with that even extended periods of down too, before 2024...   Remember a halvening in 2020 and another one in 2024?

So, yeah, there is some logic to considerations that with increasing market caps of bitcoin and other cryptos (and yeah we are mostly talking about bitcoin but those other pump and dump copy cats cannot be ignored) both bull and bear runs will drag out longer, but still we are a whole hell of a long way away from a decently large enough adoption that makes volatility a lot less and manipulation a lot less... Get us into the $500k to $1million per coin and above area before we start to contemplate any kind of possibility of meaningful price stability - rather than anticipated violent volatility, FOMO, effectiveness of FUD and attempts at manipulation (physical and informational).

I agree with you hugeblack.

OP seems to be making some kind of exaggerated bullshit claims. Of course, the blockchain space is going to grow over time, and part of the rationale to keep the blocksize limits low is to keep the whole chain from becoming too BIG, but also to lessen latency and bottleneck (to use OP's word) problems in the network verification and confirmation of blocks.  

Of course, some solutions are to NOT store the whole block and NOT to run a full node, but also even the desire to run a full node is relatively NOT that expensive and regular peeps can do it with relatively old processors.. and we can even assume that the blockchain will grow to a terabyte within 5-10 years, and still that seems completely reasonable and affordable for regular peeps, given the already inexpensive availability of such storage on regular consumer computers for far less than $1k... .which is even affordable in poverty stricken areas (even though network band with might be a potential BIGGER issue) that requires more sophistication in terms of keeping a connection.

Wouldn't it be nicer with a translucent bitcoin logo in the middle of the orange?

Surely, it is NOT a bad situation to be in.  

We had nearly an 80x price appreciation between late 2015 and late 2016 and then we had about a 2/3rds correction that caused BTC prices to bounce back and forth down to the lower end of the range for more than 6 months...   And by the way, even the bottom of the correction seems to have allowed more than 20x price appreciation from 2015... NOT a bad place to be, even though my portfolio is not at 20x, and it is more in the 8x arena...

Price could go lower, but surely not a bad place to be... and not even clear that bearwhales can bring the price lower than it's approximate $5,777 most recent bottom... even if they try harder.


Of course, down hopium is going to say that.

Something like that.     

CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!!!!


Your "hope" has come true.

Do you even understand what you are saying?  Sounds like you are just pumping out some nonsense talking point.  There is more to bitcoin than merely being first, which includes a variety of network effects, which largely means that systems are being built around bitcoin in terms of mining, development, finance and even consumer uses.


Who gives a ratt's ass if there are some of the thousands of other cryptos that have "more promising technologies" if when in fact they are likely to be either absorbed directly into bitcoin or perhaps merely be uses as a side chain of bitcoin..?

 Furthermore, consider network effects of supposedly "more promising" technologies and whether they have been actually put to play beyond just spouting out their supposed superiority in a white paper.  Also consider the network effects of other cryptos as compared with bitcoin whether that is hashing power or development or financialization or consumer adoption.

I think that is octopus, and I ate something like that once, but it was served after being cut up, so the tentacles were moving, and the head was not there.  That is scary to be that "in-touch" with eating live food.

You are starting to sound like rosewater.

What is the point to whine about sideways action when we are in a consolidation period? and the market does what it does, right?

Sure such consolidation could end at any time, and we could resume upwards, but such consolidation could take a year or more to resolve, just like 2015.... or worse case scenario would be for the consolidation to resolve downwards, rather than upwards, which would even be a worse scenario for HODLers, no?

I guess my point is that there is no real way to rush it because you have players making their bets on both sides, and sooner or later we will get some movement, but we just cannot be sure how long it will take to resolve, nor which direction even though we might have suspicions of what we believe to be more likely.

May as well amend your claim, especially since we can kind of see the direction that they are going with possible reimbursement, and especially if you have proof that you sent the fiat, and it did not go back to your account or any other account under your control.

To some extent you seem to be misdescribing the dynamics of price and adoption, and the importance of the BTC investors from the earlier bubble.

Of course, there are going to be a lot of the late 2017 investors who want to cash out at various points when getting back into profits, but the momentum of the next wave is surely not driven by them because there will be more peeps and money coming in based on the whole dynamics of how the price goes up in exponential waves.

You can see similar dynamics from the 2014-2016 period.  There were a whole hell-of-a-lot of folks saying that they would be cashing out at $1k or even just before $1k or even just after $1k because their understanding of the upwards price pressure was either based on traditional markets or just way too conservative about the upwards price movements of BTC.   Also, the price did not just go shooting past $1k because it took  a few runs at it, but in the end, the price did go shooting quite past $1k, just like previous exponential price periods.

 Yeah, sure, even the bullest of us did not expected the price to go shooting up to $19k so we may have cashed out too much way too early, but after dickering around for most of the early part of 2017.. with the bullshit reservations of the hardforks etc, etc, the end of the year resolved the upwards.. which even if we do not know what facts are going to be presented this time around, we are likely going to shoot quite a distance past $19k - even if there are also likely to be a few false starts too.. and FUD spreading about the doom and gloom of bitcoin.

 Actually, if you recall 2017, BTC's market cap "dominance" went down so much that there were a whole hell-of-a lot of alt coin pumpers that were proclaiming the death of bitcoin and even flippenings and other bullshit that could also distract BTC investors out of their coins, distract them from buying coins and cause them to be way too conservative in their BTC accumulation and HODL strategies.



Well, ultimately it is quite likely that there are going to be a lot of ups and downs, and we don't know if the retraces are going to be 20%, 30% 50% or some larger amount and longer period, but BTC investors can still take strategies that largely attempt to accumulate and don't get too greedy with both over investing or trying to get greedy on catching bottoms, when they might not happen.   

And, furthermore, as I have already commented previously, it is likely better to take a 5 year plus approach to investing in bitcoin rather than getting set upon whether new ATHs will be reached this year or even in the next couple of years - even though we could get pleasantly surprised with ATHs in much less than 5 years.

Odds are looking pretty low at the moment, perhaps less than 15%?  Or is that too bearish?

We gotta get above a few pretty strong resistance points, especially between $10k and $17k.... Probably if we were able to get above $17k, then we have pretty decent chances of breaking above previous ATH from there... By the way, I am also reading your €25k as a value of about $28k, since we are talking dollars in this thread, not European funny money.    .... so yeah, once we get above the previous ATH of $19,666, then probably we will be able to get into the sub $30k territory before meeting some resistance, perhaps?

You are correct that 10-15 coins should serve as a pretty decent base stash of BTC into the future, and perhaps even a 5-10 year time line, 10-15 coins should hold a real decent value, perhaps $100k per does not seem unrealistic in that kind of 5-10 year time frame, if not sooner.

I have been considering another hypothetical way to get someone started in bitcoin.

Let's try to make some round and realistic numbers, and suggest that a person can reasonably (without stressing his/her finances) get a hold of $12k to invest in BTC in the next 8 months.  Some of that would be coming from expected extra cash flow, and the other part from savings or moving over from other investments.

How would you invest?

My recommendation would be to divide it into 1/3rds ... and therefore, pretty much the 1st 1/3 = $4k would be invested more or less immediately, the 2nd 1/3 would be dollar cost averaged over the 8 months (therefore $500 per month - or even $125 per week), and the last 1/3 would be attempting to strategize and to buy on dips... The buying on dips might be the most complicated formula to work out, but perhaps having a plan to buy $500 if the price goes below $5700, and then in $500 increments, and if the price actually does dip lower and faster to tweak the plan from there so you never run out of money to buy on dips (AKA BTFDs).  If the price goes up, instead of down, the plan to buy on dips can be tweaked too.. but there should always be a plan to NOT run out of "buy on dip" money. 

After 8 months (or even perhaps 6 months) you can reassess the situation and decide whether to allocate more money to each of the categories or just to let your investment ride.  Another concern would be what is your overall goal?  Do you want to invest 1% or 10% or some other portion of your overall investment capital.  I don't think that it is prudent to attempt to accomplish that goal in the first 8 month period, but perhaps achieving such goal in a second 8 month period seems reasonable... furthermore establishing and following an investment plan for 16months in bitcoin would like put you in the category of bitcoin OG at the end of such period.. while, hopefully you are studying the subject during your approximately 16month initial investment period (or some other period that reasonably fits your personal style, finances and life circumstances.

That is not a daughter.  That is a girl who seems like she might be fun for a few days.. until she gets to the high maintenance stage, at least.

I'm getting confused.  What was the Calamari thing?  I recall mentioning that I got a funny stomach from eating too much Calamari, and Mymenace told me to fuck off.  I don't recall any Roach post about Calamari.

Interesting scenarios, and they do seem to cover several possibilities, but not all of the possibilities, right?  So the answers could not add up to 100%, unless the answers are covering all of the possibilities in your list of scenarios. Right?

Makes it appear that there is some kind of value in dabbling in other cryptos, besides bitcoin  - and seems like a possible BIG ASS waste of time and energies, while getting lost about what is the best of the long terms of the cryptos - and that is bitcoin.  Sure, maybe you can play around with some other cryptos, but you gotta be careful not to get lost with their distractions.. and even mentally considering some other cryptos as if they were long term and fundamentally competitive to bitcoin.

What you gonna do with your bitcoin, once it reaches $50k?  you totally cashing out and buying gold?   hahahahahahaha  

So, if bitcoin "crashes back to $10k", you will be protected, but would you be protected if bitcoin crashes from $50k to $500k?

Seems like I already asked you this, but I still don't recall whether your actual answer (plan) is reasonable in order for you to be able to really sit back and relax and be protected for a variety of scenarios:  What you gonna do?  What you gonna do?

PS:  Actually, part of the reason that I am asking this again with such earnest is because $50k is seeming more and more likely to be on its way... even compared to late 2017 / early 2018....   It is possible that we could be at $50k less than a year or it could take a few years, but it is seeming to have decent chances, especially after this most recent correction from $19k to $6k... and so we are actually fueled up pretty well for another shot... seems to me.


PPS:


I see if I had read ahead, then I will see that you have a kind of 50% and rough outline..   To the extent that you do not buy real estate, it sounds as if you might be cashing into fiat, no?  would that just sit in a bank or would you have it hedge invested in some kind of fiat investment that you believe to be more liquid than bitcoin?

That part that you quoted is really dumb... it is a very similar talking point that Vitalik makes about bitcoin being inefficient in terms of energy.

And, part of the dumbness of it remains that the mining of bitcoin remains individually incentivized in part based on electricity costs, so individuals are deciding freely how much to spend on their particular mining operation.  In the end, who gives a shit if they end up losing money or wasting electricity, because they are going to have to pay for it.. which also causes a kind of incentive for them to become more efficient in order to .. wait.. wait.. wait.....

attempt to make more profits.....

Capitalism free market at its best is to allow the individuals to decide and to gamble and hope to beat others in order to make more money for themselves.