Edit: Did those fibonacci trading techniques work before they were invented?
LOL! Nice! You do realise that as the government debt increases in the USA, you need more money to support it? Where would this continuously increased amount of money come from if it comes from the savers of the world? The only way to support the ponzi scheme is to fund it with a central bank. It is a ponzi scheme because to pay off the old debt, they use new debt. They pay off the old creditors with money from new creditors. It gets increasingly worse with interest payments which will have to increase to encourage new investors until the scheme justs collapses.
i think we do a Japan and unfortunately for us, austerity is coming to Amerika. buy guns, bullets. |
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If the federal reserve stops creating money and financing the US treasuries, the US government would have no choice but to remove the spending deficit and very likely default on the treasuries. With treasuries no longer seen as a safe haven, gold will be viewed by more people as a safe-haven and so either way don't you think gold would be pushed up from the US side?
i'm agnostic on UST's. really don't know what will happen with them. however, everyone knows the bond floors of Japan are littered with the bodies of shorts trying for decades. i could see a similar situation here. miscreanity would argue that theres no way that can happen b/c Japan's bonds were funded by the great savings of its citizens. i would argue that UST's will be funded by the savers of the world b/c our bond mkt is the largest and most liquid of all. the USD should skyrocket as well which would help. if gold tanks the only other choice is UST's or Bitcoin. and we still have the largest most successful and developed economy of the worldwide midgets. |
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“We exited one third of our gold position yesterday, and in retrospect we should have exited 150 percent of our long position,” Dennis Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Gartman Letter, wrote today in his daily report."
Context? “We’ll hold a core position in gold and we remain long term bullish of gold.” so how is "exited 150% of our long position" supposed to NET out to a long position? sounds like bank off balance sheet accounting. |
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Long-term, I still view gold as eventually being reintegrated into the global monetary system as a floating component.
no it won't. that article you posted about shipping problems to Venezuela proves my pt. and having a couple of centralized sources like the LBMA and the Comex? how'd that work out? |
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after all that bullish talk throughout this thread, you now reveal that you bought puts.
Yes, a small position which was mostly closed out yesterday and completely today for a tidy profit. yes, but a net loss i'm sure based on all your bullion holdings. |
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Ok, so what's this boil down to, guys? After reading this whole thread, seems to me your fundamental disagreement is over whether or not the fed is able/willing to keep inflating in the face of the debt crises. Aside from arguments over chart technicals, you guys actually agree on a lot of fundamentals. Fed action/ability seems to be the key point of disagreement. That right?
actually i would add that manipulation is a big factor in my argument as well, not to mention psychology. you really need to read the entire thread and all comments. |
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Ok, so what's this boil down to, guys? After reading this whole thread, seems to me your fundamental disagreement is over whether or not the fed is able/willing to keep inflating in the face of the debt crises. Aside from arguments over chart technicals, you guys actually agree on a lot of fundamentals. Fed action/ability seems to be the key point of disagreement. That right?
thats pretty close altho i wouldn't want to shortchange the many excellent pts made throughout this thread by all involved. |
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A talk of Kevin Slavin that I find very much on topic because, among other things, talks explicitly about stock trading algorithms and their implications: How algorithms shape our worldyeah, i watched that a couple of weeks ago. excellent. |
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miscreanity:
well i guess i ought to reveal a little secret to everyone here also: You Sir were the inspiration for this thread. your unsolicited PM coming out of my computer screen free of charge, an unknown voice from the Internet advising me to close out my short positions and buy because gold and silver were going to the moon. A voice with years of experience and wisdom in the precious metals markets filled with concern over my well being. you along with my secretary, gold pundits, TV ads, Gold stores around the corner all bullish on gold. how could anything go wrong?
as you said earlier; its nice to know who i'm taking money from.
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The GLD short puts that I bought at the beginning of the week are now closed and additional Jan '12 long calls have been opened. Bullish vertical put spreads due to expire in September are maintaining neutral Theta. Now, I let them sit and patiently wait because the daily gyrations are largely irrelevant.
after all that bullish talk throughout this thread, you now reveal that you bought puts. are we now supposed to think you're smart? at least everyone here knows my positions up front and i've done what i said i'd do. |
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The website is wrong then? What has this to do with anything?
did you listen to the podcast? |
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You mean bearish.
i said what i meant. Rogers is BULLISH on the USD. |
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You act as if the actions of central banks mean nothing. Trust me it bloody well does.
Also there is latency between monetary inflation and price inflation. The full effects of previous money creation still needs time to set in. With interest rates forced low and where governments attempt to get banks to lend out as much as possible more and more the effects should show more quickly.
i remember so well from 2002-2009 guys like Eric Sprott and James Turk getting up to a podium and saying "why are central banks selling gold? oh well, we'll be happy to take gold off their hands. haha!!!". And the price kept rising. so, i submit to you, now when they are buying, the price can very well keep dropping. |
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Or dear looking t the graphs again. One bust and then a greater one proves deflation will happen somehow, when in reality is that central banks will continue to flood economies with more and more money.
OMG, facepalm #2 (twice in one day!) once again, an investment thesis depending on the whims of central bankers whom you should trust the least. |
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cypherdoc: Agree on deflation. Big time.
It just seems that there are some hardcore inflationists with linear thinking that we can only convince them once S&P is below 600 and Silver bewlo 10 $. But I am happy to wait for this to happen until posting in this thread again :-)
no, no, no. you can't leave me here alone with these guys until 2016 when the grand finale hits. this will be a long tortuous journey down the rat hole. "hardcore" doesn't come close to describing these guys.  |
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Before the recent sharp inclines in the gold price the trend was pointing to $1600 by now. If gold goes down to $1600 it's a very good buying opportunity but I don't think it's going to go down to $1600 because of all the recent factors which is pushing more longer term investors to go into gold. It's only the short-term speculators that will be selling. Gold has risen quickly recently and so if you were to say it is overbought, it is so on the recent price moves. There is no reason to suggest the long term trend for gold is dead.
there are plenty of reasons IMO to think that its over. start with my OP and work forward. I read that you think there is going to be price deflation which is ludicrous. Deflation ludicrous? Really? Just what does this chart of the S&P 500 since 1928 tell you? onward and upward or some fundamental change going on since 2000? You've lived with inflation your whole life and cannot fathom the idea of deflation i would say. Linear thinking again. edit: i see a giant head and shoulders formation which means DOWN over the coming years.  |
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