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Author Topic: Gold: I smell a trap  (Read 44316 times)
cypherdoc
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August 25, 2011, 05:18:39 AM
 #301

miscreanity:

well i guess i ought to reveal a little secret to everyone here also:  You Sir were the inspiration for this thread.  your unsolicited PM coming out of my computer screen free of charge, an unknown voice from the Internet advising me to close out my short positions and buy because gold and silver were going to the moon.  A voice with years of experience and wisdom in the precious metals markets filled with concern over my well being.  you along with my secretary, gold pundits, TV ads, Gold stores around the corner all bullish on gold.  how could anything go wrong?

as you said earlier; its nice to know who i'm taking money from.
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August 25, 2011, 06:21:54 AM
 #302

Ok, so what's this boil down to, guys? After reading this whole thread, seems to me your fundamental disagreement is over whether or not the fed is able/willing to keep inflating in the face of the debt crises. Aside from arguments over chart technicals, you guys actually agree on a lot of fundamentals. Fed action/ability seems to be the key point of disagreement. That right?

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August 25, 2011, 12:50:36 PM
 #303

A talk of Kevin Slavin that I find very much on topic because, among other things, talks explicitly about stock trading algorithms and their implications:
How algorithms shape our world

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August 25, 2011, 01:32:25 PM
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A talk of Kevin Slavin that I find very much on topic because, among other things, talks explicitly about stock trading algorithms and their implications:
How algorithms shape our world

yeah, i watched that a couple of weeks ago.  excellent.
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August 25, 2011, 01:35:20 PM
 #305

Ok, so what's this boil down to, guys? After reading this whole thread, seems to me your fundamental disagreement is over whether or not the fed is able/willing to keep inflating in the face of the debt crises. Aside from arguments over chart technicals, you guys actually agree on a lot of fundamentals. Fed action/ability seems to be the key point of disagreement. That right?

thats pretty close altho i wouldn't want to shortchange the many excellent pts made throughout this thread by all involved. 
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August 25, 2011, 01:37:21 PM
 #306

Ok, so what's this boil down to, guys? After reading this whole thread, seems to me your fundamental disagreement is over whether or not the fed is able/willing to keep inflating in the face of the debt crises. Aside from arguments over chart technicals, you guys actually agree on a lot of fundamentals. Fed action/ability seems to be the key point of disagreement. That right?

actually i would add that manipulation is a big factor in my argument as well, not to mention psychology.  you really need to read the entire thread and all comments.
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August 25, 2011, 01:51:43 PM
 #307

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-25/bernanke-signaling-no-qe-backed-by-data-from-prices-to-freight.html

the first wave of bad news.
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August 25, 2011, 01:53:42 PM
 #308

after all that bullish talk throughout this thread, you now reveal that you bought puts.

Yes, a small position which was mostly closed out yesterday and completely today for a tidy profit.

yes, but a net loss i'm sure based on all your bullion holdings.
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August 25, 2011, 01:55:58 PM
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Long-term, I still view gold as eventually being reintegrated into the global monetary system as a floating component.

no it won't.  that article you posted about shipping problems to Venezuela proves my pt.  and having a couple of centralized sources like the LBMA and the Comex?  how'd that work out?
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August 25, 2011, 01:57:31 PM
 #310

My gold shorts still are far from return to black, they were entered around 1530

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August 25, 2011, 01:59:52 PM
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“We exited one third of our gold position yesterday, and in retrospect we should have exited 150 percent of our long position,” Dennis Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Gartman Letter, wrote today in his daily report."

Context?

“We’ll hold a core position in gold and we remain long term bullish of gold.”

so how is "exited 150% of our long position" supposed to NET out to a long position?  sounds like bank off balance sheet accounting.
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August 25, 2011, 02:07:08 PM
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-23/economist-gartman-reduces-gold-holdings-on-frothy-prices-1-.html
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August 25, 2011, 02:09:10 PM
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If the federal reserve stops creating money and financing the US treasuries, the US government would have no choice but to remove the spending deficit and very likely default on the treasuries. With treasuries no longer seen as a safe haven, gold will be viewed by more people as a safe-haven and so either way don't you think gold would be pushed up from the US side?

Edit: Did those fibonacci trading techniques work before they were invented?

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cypherdoc
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August 25, 2011, 02:16:18 PM
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If the federal reserve stops creating money and financing the US treasuries, the US government would have no choice but to remove the spending deficit and very likely default on the treasuries. With treasuries no longer seen as a safe haven, gold will be viewed by more people as a safe-haven and so either way don't you think gold would be pushed up from the US side?

i'm agnostic on UST's.  really don't know what will happen with them.

however, everyone knows the bond floors of Japan are littered with the bodies of shorts trying for decades.  i could see a similar situation here.  miscreanity would argue that theres no way that can happen b/c Japan's bonds were funded by the great savings of its citizens.  i would argue that UST's will be funded by the savers of the world b/c our bond mkt is the largest and most liquid of all.  the USD should skyrocket as well which would help. if gold tanks the only other choice is UST's or Bitcoin.  and we still have the largest most successful and developed economy of the worldwide midgets.
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August 25, 2011, 02:26:33 PM
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Didn't the Japanese central bank do the first package of purchases which was labeled quantitative easing? I'm not overly educated on the Japanese situation. It seems to me that the culture in Japan is a saving culture which the Japanese couldn't fix even if they were paying people to take on debt. The debt culture has completely worked in the USA.

You do realise that as the government debt increases in the USA, you need more money to support it? Where would this continuously increased amount of money come from if it comes from the savers of the world? The only way to support the ponzi scheme is to fund it with a central bank. It is a ponzi scheme because to pay off the old debt, they use new debt. They pay off the old creditors with money from new creditors. It gets increasingly worse with interest payments which will have to increase to encourage new investors until the scheme justs collapses.

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cypherdoc
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August 25, 2011, 02:46:23 PM
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Edit: Did those fibonacci trading techniques work before they were invented?

LOL!  Nice!

You do realise that as the government debt increases in the USA, you need more money to support it? Where would this continuously increased amount of money come from if it comes from the savers of the world? The only way to support the ponzi scheme is to fund it with a central bank. It is a ponzi scheme because to pay off the old debt, they use new debt. They pay off the old creditors with money from new creditors. It gets increasingly worse with interest payments which will have to increase to encourage new investors until the scheme justs collapses.

i think we do a Japan and unfortunately for us, austerity is coming to Amerika.  buy guns, bullets.
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August 25, 2011, 02:47:30 PM
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the trick was to come to this conclusion before they did.
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August 25, 2011, 03:12:26 PM
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next wave of bad news for gold:  USD beginning its ascent

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August 25, 2011, 03:20:34 PM
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Didn't the Japanese central bank do the first package of purchases which was labeled quantitative easing? I'm not overly educated on the Japanese situation. It seems to me that the culture in Japan is a saving culture which the Japanese couldn't fix even if they were paying people to take on debt. The debt culture has completely worked in the USA.

You do realise that as the government debt increases in the USA, you need more money to support it? Where would this continuously increased amount of money come from if it comes from the savers of the world? The only way to support the ponzi scheme is to fund it with a central bank. It is a ponzi scheme because to pay off the old debt, they use new debt. They pay off the old creditors with money from new creditors. It gets increasingly worse with interest payments which will have to increase to encourage new investors until the scheme justs collapses.

some of the best work i've seen on Japan comes from Kyle Bass and Hugh Hendry.
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August 25, 2011, 03:24:59 PM
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Didn't the Japanese central bank do the first package of purchases which was labeled quantitative easing? I'm not overly educated on the Japanese situation. It seems to me that the culture in Japan is a saving culture which the Japanese couldn't fix even if they were paying people to take on debt. The debt culture has completely worked in the USA.

You do realise that as the government debt increases in the USA, you need more money to support it? Where would this continuously increased amount of money come from if it comes from the savers of the world? The only way to support the ponzi scheme is to fund it with a central bank. It is a ponzi scheme because to pay off the old debt, they use new debt. They pay off the old creditors with money from new creditors. It gets increasingly worse with interest payments which will have to increase to encourage new investors until the scheme justs collapses.

some of the best work i've seen on Japan comes from Kyle Bass and Hugh Hendry.

sorry, my thoughts are coming in spurts this AM.  another huge source of funds is the stock mkts of the world.  if we do a Phase 2 down header like the head and shoulders formation of the last 11 yrs suggests, all that money will flow into safe havens of which the UST's are a debatable one.  thats what Depressions do.
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