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181  Economy / Speculation / Re: Common misconceptions about day trading on: February 28, 2018, 04:08:33 PM
I assume everyone saying Bitcoin daytrading is profitable means in comparison to just "hodling" or, as you say, beating the market. Why are you assuming that's not what they mean?

I disagree with you here, I do not think that is what they mean. That is not what the word "profitable" means. I don't know why you think they do mean that.

Daytrading doesn't really mean doing trades each and every day, unless you are arbitring or scalping (which can also be more profitable in comparison to market). It means watching the market all day long and taking advantage of any clear signals you might see (and maybe doing some routine "scalping" to profit on the volatility in the meantime).

No, this is demonstrably false. Look at the link I sent. Day trading has a definition, and it requires making two trades within one day. Day trading means entering and exiting a position within one day. If you are not doing this, you are not day trading. It's simple.

You may stick to that definition of course but I find it rather restrictive, especially the part about entering and exiting a position within the same day. From my perspective, this is an unwarranted and unjustified requirement from purely technical point of view. If you see that the price rises, why would you want to exit a profitable position? Just to make sure it fits some clumsy definition? You may make a dozen trades one day and no trades the next day because you are just waiting for the right time to hit. Does it mean that it is not day trading? Or one day it is day trading, while the other not? Anyway, if you don't like me or anyone else, for that matter, using the term day trading, replace it with active trading in your mind. Basically, you are being overly pesky about insignificant details which are debatable even on their own. I don't think quarreling over definitions adds anything of substance to the discussion. Most of us understand what day trading essentially means.
182  Economy / Speculation / Re: Common misconceptions about day trading on: February 28, 2018, 10:20:41 AM
Further, there is a question of limited profitability. This question has some substance but it seems that people who raise it don't fully understand what day trading comes down to. Many erroneously think that it is mostly about missing good profit opportunities. In fact, nothing can be farther from truth than that. Day trading if done right is actually about maximizing your profits, not losing them.

Others would say that if I just hold my coin then I would not miss good profit opportunities by selling earlier but I am just maximizing my profit by riding the waves. I am swing trading and taking small profits everyday because that's the way I like it. I am not the kind of person who would wait for the time when the coin would be hype because I just want to learn trading and besides that, I will learn more about it when I trade continuously and watching the charts more often than just waiting for the day when the coin is hype. Well, we have different strategy and I like day trading more.

Myself, I belong to the same flock. I never understood that idea about waiting a few years until price rises high enough. Okay, you set your target price to some value but what if price stops just short of it? You will hate yourself till the end of your days for not selling right then. I understand when people want big profits, I want big profits too, and big profits come with big price changes. I'm okay with that. What I'm not okay with is the idea of stubborn waiting and blindly hoping for the best. And here comes day trading, or active trading if someone is not happy with my understanding of it, and riding the wave whenever there is an opportunity.
183  Economy / Speculation / Re: Trading is gambling after all on: February 27, 2018, 07:57:34 PM
If we presume that the absolute majority of traders are losing in the long run, then, to me, this pretty much counts as gambling.
why would you make that assumption? based on what data?

even if we assume it is true, that still doesn't make "trading" like gambling. instead it makes "traders" as gamblers. and there is a big difference there.

I don't see how it can be otherwise. As I have already said in OP, a sideways market and speculative one at that like Bitcoin's, is a sort of controlled "lab" environment where things can't be different. Well, I have heard that point of most traders losing in the long run mentioned multiple times here and there but since I didn't have any source I just looked for it myself. Here are the hard numbers. I think you can find plenty of other sources to that tune. Other than that, I don't say that all trading is gambling. It is gambling for most traders, which I also mentioned in OP.

Quote
When you flip a coin and you don't know anything about your chances, you can also build sophisticated theories why, for example, you should get heads more often than tails. But it doesn't matter, does it? Given that there is a sort of house edge in trading too, we should unmistakably come to the conclusion outlined in OP.
first of all making theories doesn't mean these theories are correct. and when it comes to gambling such as flipping a coin you will never get more heads and tails. every flip has an equal chance of going either way no matter what happened before.
and that is one of the differences.

Well, this is the point I'm trying to make here. No matter how sophisticated your theories are it still comes down to chances.

secondly house edge means the house or the thingy you are betting against has a better chance of winning than you. there is no such thin in trading, and you are not trading against one entity. you are trading against a lot of others based on the market movements.
if you can go with the flow you win.

I refer to house edge here as something which you can't beat, neither in gambling nor in trading. You can think of trading against a lot of other traders like yourself as a manifestation of what loosely matches luck in gambling. So you either win or lose and it is a game of chances minus the house edge.
184  Economy / Speculation / Re: Major mistake all traders make on: February 27, 2018, 05:36:35 PM
In my opinion, big mistake that a lot of new traders chase coins that price is growing fast like it was with Iota, Tron ant etc. They buy coins at all time high and think that it will grow much more
That is a mistake that starts from the main mistake of not learning, gambling the market and expecting that every day is going to be Christmas. I call that trying to jump a fast moving train and that is like the most dangerous thing anyone can ever do. I would rather say the most common mistake some traders make is not having a strategy, because if you do, there is no way you will never have your profit: loss ratio in mind and know what to look out for before even placing your buy order.

This is a good observation and I was thinking about something to that tune myself, more specifically how well it fits into the scheme presented in this topic or how well such actions can be explained in the scope of the idea I am taking about here. It could be said that when people jump into the market without any clue about what they are doing, they are basically in the same position when they find themselves confused and helpless due to a sudden unexpected price change, just blindly hoping for the better. Though in the former case, they themselves are the cause of this situation, not market forces are involved as in the latter case. In other words, if you don't know where to go, no wind will be favorable.
185  Economy / Speculation / Re: Trading is gambling after all on: February 27, 2018, 04:08:46 PM
In a way trading could be considered gambling, but there a lot of different variations in gambling risk. What I mean is that some gambling games are completely games of chance like dice where there is no skill involved. But there are also games where skill is a factor such as in poker.

You can argue that risk in trading is lower if you are skilled at reading charts and if you do research on the coins you are trading. You may even be able to say that if you are highly skilled, trading may not really be gambling.
I would say that trading is not gambling. I think when we do trading then we can still do an analysis that can help us to take decisions, while playing trading then fully we hope to luck. Everyone must have a difference of opinion and I think it is fair. if calculated maybe only 30% of people who consider trading as a gambling.

Exactly, gambling is way too far than trading, you can't stop loss in gambling but through trading you can minimize your loss by taking additional measures. Trading is gambling for panic sellers and beginners who leave the market soon after a single loss.

I think stop-loss in gambling is when you stop gambling. Really, as the term itself suggests, stop-loss is used to prevent additional losses by closing your position when the price goes against you. But the loss already suffered by that time can be considered as a losing bet made in gambling. In this sense, at least metaphorically, we can say that gambling has stop-losses kind of built in. Otherwise, I agree that panic sellers are mostly gamblers because when they open a position they are just hoping for the best, which is not very far from what we see in gambling.
186  Economy / Speculation / Re: How exchanges steal our money on: February 27, 2018, 11:38:29 AM
#1 and #2 below are the exact same activity you're accusing the Exchanges of committing - delaying trades.

I don't see what the first method has to do with delays. There are no intentionally added delays when an exchange takes liquidity from the orderbooks. In fact, it is in exchange's best interest to pull off the job as fast as possible. I'm curious where you got this idea from. Care to explain?

Exchanges are allowed to make the spread, that's how they make money. By fulfilling Bitcoin (or insert cryptocurrency/investment) buy orders for more than the sell orders. It's not stealing, it's literally how they make money. It's nearly no different than a bank loaning out money at a higher interest rate than they pay for savings.

Neither I understand what you mean here by "making the spread", but front running is definitely not an allowed practice on regulated exchanges up to a point of causing serious penalties. And there are good reasons for that like providing level playing ground for all market participants.
187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Common misconceptions about day trading on: February 27, 2018, 10:20:56 AM
Profit earned is all that counts in the end. Note that I'm not saying that day trading is profitable for everyone or it is a losing game for every trader out there. But it simply can't be gambling if you accept that trading as such is not gambling. There is no other choice because all price growth starts small, even profits from long-term investment are made of small price moves. Capitalizing on the volatility which results from these small moves allows you to earn higher profits because there is no growth without corrections, however small those can be. Add to this that you can't always be right in your assessment of the future growth and even more so in respect to the extent of it.

First of all you talk about capitalizing on short term volatility like it is easy to do, and like people are capable of doing it consistently. When you buy an asset with the intent of trading it intra-day, how do you know it is going to go up and not down? You can lose money as easily as you gain it. There is no way to accurately predict price movements on this small of a scale CONSISTENTLY. Day traders will lose just as often as they win over a long enough period of time, and because of fees, this will end up putting them on the losing side overall.

Also, profit earned is NOT all that counts. If I am day trading in the stock market and earning 8% ROI in a year, but the S&P500 returns 12%, all of my work figuring out what to sell and buy and when, was just a waste because I could make more profit by just holding an index fund. Same with bitcoin - if you day traded bitcoin in 2017 and made a 200% return, you have failed because you would have made more money by just holding bitcoin. All of that day trading not only failed to help you make money, but it resulted in a massive amount of wasted time and wasted potential profit.

As I have written in OP, there is a lot of confusion about day trading. Day trading doesn't necessarily mean that you buy and sell all you have within just one day. Day trading refers to your trading activity, how many trades you make daily. In this way, there is no precise definition of it. It is a loosely defined concept where many different trading strategies fit. You determine the trend in the same way as you do for long-term holding, and then you capitalize on short-term volatility. As long as you can make profits consistently as in arbitrage, which is also day trading, it is not gambling. This is the difference I want to point out.

I never said, or implied, that day trading meant buying and selling all you have. However, it DOES involve buying and selling within one day, BY DEFINITION. That is what day trading is. Intra-day trading to take advantage of fluctuations in price within one day. This is not a misconception or anything, this is literally the dictionary definition of day trading: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/day%20trader

You are not reading what I wrote. It does not matter if you profit, that is meaningless. The only thing that matters is how you perform compared to the market. If you profit but you underperform the market as a whole, your strategy is failing.

Day traders do not determine trends the same way as long term investors. Long term investors look at fundamentals and day traders do not because fundamentals do not affect intra-day price movements.

Day trading is gambling, period. It is 100% luck based. Anything that is luck based is gambling. Long term investing is NOT luck based, and therefore is not gambling. It's that simple.

I don't really understand what you are trying to prove here. If you don't like my approach to day trading, I'm not forcing you to post in this thread. Also, you don't seem to be reading what I write either. Here we are talking about day trading not being gambling. In gambling, you are not supposed to earn other than by luck alone and over longer terms the impact of luck is entirely cleared away. That means losing whatever language you speak. So it is a pretty simple choice. If you earn over longer time spans, it is not gambling. Whether it is day trading or otherwise is irrelevant. I don't really know what else can be added to this, though I don't mind if you disagree or anything.
188  Economy / Speculation / Re: How exchanges steal our money on: February 27, 2018, 08:42:39 AM
I don't think that exchanges steal our money, because they earning big money on their fee. They have fee when you sell , buy and withdraw money. Some exchange even have fee when you deposit bitcoin , that is really bad in my opinion, so before you open account on exchange first read about Fees.

This is definitely not about fees, which you implicitly accept when you start using an exchange. You know human greed knows no limits, so you wouldn't really expect exchanges to lose 100% bullet-proof opportunities of making money off their clients, even if such practices are universally frowned upon, would you? And still more so if they can walk away completely unscathed, and there is no single entity to unleash justice on the wicked.
189  Economy / Speculation / Re: How exchanges steal our money on: February 26, 2018, 08:56:45 PM
Oh gosh, they make money? !!? I thought it was a service to the good of mankind.  Roll Eyes

So yes, when i buy coin at 0.0341 i might be buying from exchange who brought from someone at 0.0340.  I got my price, he got his price, if we do market orders we dont care about precise price. What exact is the point of this revelation?  We close exchanges?

It may not look like a big deal until you send a really big order and then things get real nasty. And they get even nastier when you send a market order which means that you give the exchange a full leeway to do whatever they want with the price and go at the double where their greed leads them. In short, it is not as innocent as it seems to you. The point is if you are a person with deep pockets, you should be aware and beware of how exchanges want to make money off you in a way that you don't even suspect. Will you be happy to find out that someone is making money at your expense? I don't think you would.
190  Economy / Speculation / Re: How exchanges steal our money on: February 26, 2018, 08:25:27 PM
If I understand correctly, you're basically saying that instead of processing orders in the order they come in, exchanges are processing them in such an order where they will make the most amount of profit, and could use delays to this end?

No, I don't mean that. Out of order execution is out of limits even for crypto exchanges, though where it happens, and it does happen here and there, it may in fact be due to bugs in a trading engine rather than malicious intent. I know that at Bter, a Chinese exchange that was active a couple or so years ago, you could fool their trading engine and get your orders executed before anyone else's in the same queue. Obviously, this is an unfair advantage. But there is nothing fair in what I speak about in OP either. Honestly, I don't understand why some people here consider this or similar practices kind of normal. Regular exchanges get severely punished if they get caught doing such things.
191  Economy / Speculation / Re: How exchanges steal our money on: February 26, 2018, 06:15:02 PM
What you are saying isnt something unknown neither it is shady enough to say that exchanges steal your coins. Each exchange has certain working strategy, 2 second delay sometimes might even not be intentional but something the api needs to list the order.

No, it is not just about listing the orders. 2 second delay at WEX is the clock tick at which data is refreshed. It means that if you are using their API to access trading data, you will be querying cashed data. Obviously, it is claimed that the purpose is to lower load on exchange servers but as a side effect, you don't know what's actually going on at the exchange for the next 2 seconds after you receive refreshed information. But 2 seconds is a huge amount of time within which a lot of things can happen.
192  Economy / Speculation / Re: Trading is gambling after all on: February 26, 2018, 11:09:42 AM
Honestly, I disagree with you, because there is a big difference between the field of trading and gambling in many things. As well, In trading if you analyzed  the market 
 so well then you can earn an acceptable amount of money in an easy way. And always the best chance (opportunity) to ensure the profit when there is a Big drop ( Crisis) in the Market and the patience is essential in trading . In otherwise, In the field of gambling , It is very important to have a different strategies (Plan A, Plan B..) especially after each loss. And the choices are different in many types of areas (Casinos, Online sport betting) bur hurrying choices may lead to many financial losses.
On the other hand,  the only thing common to these two fields is the existence of luck for profit

Obviously, you can find many differences between trading and gambling. In the end, it all depends upon what you are looking for and into. But here, I'm looking into the most important thing that all traders are striving for. This is profit or lack thereof. And as far as profits are concerned (lack of profits), trading and gambling are quite similar. And it is not only about some outward similarities and likeness in this regard, it is more about mechanics which explains why people are set to lose both in trading and gambling, what makes most traders lose in the long run.
193  Economy / Speculation / Re: Trading is gambling after all on: February 26, 2018, 08:17:12 AM
and I rather think that gambling can be more promising if we need profit quickly, and of course it can not be separated from. strategy and emotional control.

I beats me why some people still believe that gambling can be more "promising". In trading you can at least hope to evaluate fundamentals and expect the prices to rise or fall in the near future unless these fundamentals have already been priced in. But in casino gambling, such as dice, your only chance at winning is pure luck, except when you can change the odds in your favor somehow. The longer you play the less importance and effect luck will have because it will be largely overridden by house edge. It is not particularly different in trading either, given that the market has its own "house edge" over a typical trader, but at least milking the market as via arbitrage is not considered illegal here.

194  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-02-25]btcmagazine - Bitcoin Faces Pivotal Support as Bulls Exhaust Buying on: February 25, 2018, 07:53:56 PM
Summary:
After a strong uptrend, and after a breakout of the bearish descending channel, the market saw a strong pullback.
The strong pullback marks a potential distribution trading range on the 30-minute candles.
New lows may be in store for bitcoin as it decides whether the bulls are too exhausted to keep the buying pressure aloft.
Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

I'm not very fond of TA, which is what we see here. My understanding of the current market is that many people had bought at 12k when the price first crashed in January, thinking it was a good buy. Now many of them are desperately trying to close their positions and call it a day for good. Since 12k has become kind of new high, we could expect the price to continue going down along the same pattern that we saw in late December and early January. If the price goes below 6k, which we shouldn't completely rule out, the pattern will have established itself. The point being don't buy into this rally, it is likely a bull trap.

I might be missing it, but the analysis does not provide any explanations as to why the bitcoin price is falling, no? The FUD looked like it was beginning to dissipate, we had broken the $10K resistance, but the price started to go down once again for no apparent reason. It has started to become very confusing for me.

People are trying to get away cheap.
195  Economy / Speculation / Re: Trading is gambling after all on: February 25, 2018, 06:22:24 PM
Trading is always gambling and people espousing TA aren't much different from weirdoes who devote their lives to coming up with mathematical formulas they believe work on horse racing.

It's true that the real men are forged in sideways markets. We're nowhere near inert though and I don't think this current action can be called sideways when 10-20% can be gained or lost in a day. Try weeks of $250.

Personally, I'm not a strong believer in TA myself unless we speak about pretty simple things like seeing the trend, which don't require convoluted math. That said, it is not just about sideways markets alone. It is even harder to make money on a falling market, and let's not forget that Bitcoin had been falling for almost two years before, and now we may well be at the verge of our road down. Indeed, you can try shorting but we all know how often it ends in a complete disaster with deposits blown away in a glimpse. In a sense, such markets are the worst nightmare for the total majority of traders if they come to stay.
196  Economy / Speculation / Re: How exchanges steal our money on: February 25, 2018, 05:08:38 PM
I don't understand why you consider this to be theft. Exchanges have always had a difference between buying and selling prices ( the spread ). Banks do it with fiat transactions, and they often charge an additional commission on the trrade.

Maybe, because front running, which the tricks mentioned here fall under, is considered unethical practice in any trading environment? Obviously, it gives an undeserved advantage to some market players, in this case to exchanges, but in trading such advantage always means money, money lost and earned, if it can called that. Which, if you ask me, is not very far from stealing. Anyway, front running is officially prohibited on any major regulated exchange, and the exchanges that get caught suffer severe penalties. Not that it prevents them from further attempts at secretly deceiving their clients whenever possible but still.
197  Economy / Speculation / Re: Trading is gambling after all on: February 25, 2018, 02:12:24 PM
well gambling has a clear definition. it is something that you can not predict at all. it is 100% pure chance. for example when you roll a dice or flip a coin there is no way to know what the result of it will be. meaning pure chance.

but when it comes to trading and prices, it is hard to predict but it is not 100% unclear. you can expect certain scenarios to happen with different levels of certainty based on the market situation. and that is a big difference that makes it distinguished from gambling.

If we presume that the absolute majority of traders are losing in the long run, then, to me, this pretty much counts as gambling. I agree that traders do think they can expect certain scenarios to come about more often than others but if they invariably lose in the end, what does it change? When you flip a coin and you don't know anything about your chances, you can also build sophisticated theories why, for example, you should get heads more often than tails. But it doesn't matter, does it? Given that there is a sort of house edge in trading too, we should unmistakably come to the conclusion outlined in OP.
198  Economy / Speculation / Re: Major mistake all traders make on: February 25, 2018, 01:22:36 PM
I think this only applies to those beginners who are afraid of taking risk and to those who haven't experience failure in trading. For a beginner who want to take trading they must read this and understand how the market goes. They will experience sudden pump or dump but they should not worry, instead take this as an opportunity for more investment as cryptos nature is very volatile and unpredictable.

In my opinion there is no common denominator apart from what I'm discussing here. In other words, it doesn't matter whether you are an experienced trader or beginner, you should at least get worried if the market falls suddenly and entirely unexpected for you. It may or may not be an opportunity but rationalizing it in the way you suggest doesn't look very appealing to me. It can bring you peace of mind, of course, but I don't think this is what most traders are looking for. They are looking for profits, not a feeling of being safe or protected.
199  Economy / Speculation / Re: Major mistake all traders make on: February 24, 2018, 09:06:27 PM
As a long-term holder, I just HODL. That saves me a lot of headaches and a lot of trading commissions. You just put an example of what newbies do: to buy after the last ath out of FOMO and to sell after the dip out of panic. This is the opposite of what I usually recommend
My style exactly. I don't want to be associated with all that daily drama of day trading.
In hindsight, I can say that holding coins and not dealing with all that minor price fluctuation is far better if you have a normal job and don't have time to react accordingly to ever-changing trading patterns.
I recommend only to sell, buy at major breaking points - ATH is a great time to sell and crashes and corrections are great entry points.

It has worked for you only because the market had been rising for well over two years, starting in September, 2015. If it starts trading sideways as many established markets do most of the time in some narrow or not so narrow range, you will see that this strategy is not as good as it seems to be. Further on, you don't know in advance whether it is an ATH or price is going to rise higher. But booking profits now and then is not what HODL means. Actually, it is half-way to day trading. The same applies to buying at dips. In short, a long-lasting sideways market will kill HODL.
200  Economy / Speculation / How exchanges steal our money on: February 24, 2018, 07:47:49 PM
Many people have reported that they noticed a lot of shady behavior on the part of exchanges, and here I want to discuss specific methods which many, if not all, exchanges employ to steal our money. I know of at least 2 risk-free methods which are in the store ready to be used on trading folk:

1. Exchange sees a big sell or buy order entering the system which would fill a lot of orders in the orderbook at prices higher or below the price set by the trader. In this case, exchange can itself sell or buy all these orders first and then fill the entering order at its specific price. The effect is that the exchange earns profit while the trader gets his order filled at maximum or minimum possible price. This method works exceptionally well with market orders filled at the current market price. Guess what price it will be.

2. Exchange can set arbitrary delays while adding new orders. For example, WEX (former Btc-e) officially sets a 2 second delay within which a trader doesn't know what's going on at the exchange. In this case, if exchange sees a big order, it can delay adding it waiting for another big order to arrive. If these orders are offsetting each other, exchange can then fill them itself and put the spread in the pocket. This approach works particularly well with exchanges that have lots of liquidity.

If you know of other dirty tricks that exchanges use, share them here.
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