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Author Topic: Trading is gambling after all  (Read 725 times)
Canis Majoris
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February 23, 2018, 06:07:15 PM
Last edit: February 23, 2018, 07:08:26 PM by Canis Majoris
Merited by EdenHazard (1), Gleb Gamow (1), Kemarit (1), richardsNY (1), player514 (1)
 #1

Well, sort of, at least for the majority of ordinary and wannabe traders. It is relatively easy to earn money on a rising market but it becomes a completely different matter when a sideways market sets in like it is now in the cryptoverse. There are two major factors that turn trading into gambling for most players in this type of market which are presented below.

First, in any financial or speculative market, where Bitcoin rightfully belongs to, you can earn only if you take money from someone else. It could appear as if everyone earns with the rising price but things reveal their true nature when the price stops rising. It is kind of obvious but accepting this is necessary to understand why you can be the one losing the game in the end.

Second, some market participants have an unrestricted edge over the rest of the pack which means that under no circumstances they will be losing. These are arbitrageurs, insiders, exchanges and their likes. For example, it is impossible to beat exchange since it is 100% sure money for them when they can front run your orders and do a lot of other nasty things which you can't.

Given these two circumstances, it is easy to see that if you do not belong to the group of market participants mentioned above, trading pretty quickly turns into gambling for you. So your only chance to win is pure luck. But luck is not a friend of consistency, therefore the only consistency you can reliably expect is losing to someone who has an undisputed edge over you and the market.

Feel free to comment and post your thoughts and ideas here.
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February 23, 2018, 07:42:31 PM
 #2

I have experienced shady exchange practices first hand back in the early days. In my cases it was on Mintpal and Cryptsy. The issues were Bitcoin deposits not posting during a massive crash of a certain altcoin, where the deposits posted exactly at the moment the market was bought up again. Disabling deposits and withdrawals of coins with massive spreads accross various exchanges, where everything was enabled again once the spread was gone. Orderbook manipulation where the orderbook adjusted itself based on how I was modifying a buy or sell order before I even executed the order. Altcoins that suddenly got dumped down massively, where a few minutes later the exchanges announced that they will be delisted -- this is something Poloniex has done last year as well. Overall, great analysis!
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February 23, 2018, 10:34:02 PM
 #3

Well, sort of, at least for the majority of ordinary and wannabe traders. It is relatively easy to earn money on a rising market but it becomes a completely different matter when a sideways market sets in like it is now in the cryptoverse. There are two major factors that turn trading into gambling for most players in this type of market which are presented below.

First, in any financial or speculative market, where Bitcoin rightfully belongs to, you can earn only if you take money from someone else. It could appear as if everyone earns with the rising price but things reveal their true nature when the price stops rising. It is kind of obvious but accepting this is necessary to understand why you can be the one losing the game in the end.

Second, some market participants have an unrestricted edge over the rest of the pack which means that under no circumstances they will be losing. These are arbitrageurs, insiders, exchanges and their likes. For example, it is impossible to beat exchange since it is 100% sure money for them when they can front run your orders and do a lot of other nasty things which you can't.

Given these two circumstances, it is easy to see that if you do not belong to the group of market participants mentioned above, trading pretty quickly turns into gambling for you. So your only chance to win is pure luck. But luck is not a friend of consistency, therefore the only consistency you can reliably expect is losing to someone who has an undisputed edge over you and the market.

Feel free to comment and post your thoughts and ideas here.
Your analysis is quite spot on but at least you have lesser chance to lose money when trading. You can lose all your money instantly when you are gambling. On the other hand, you will only lose all of your investment on trading if you failed to get out on time or when exchanges close. Most of the times, you would only lose a percent of it but not all. Still, it doesn't change the fact that you take money from someone else when you profit from a trade.
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February 24, 2018, 01:58:41 AM
 #4

In a way trading could be considered gambling, but there a lot of different variations in gambling risk. What I mean is that some gambling games are completely games of chance like dice where there is no skill involved. But there are also games where skill is a factor such as in poker.

You can argue that risk in trading is lower if you are skilled at reading charts and if you do research on the coins you are trading. You may even be able to say that if you are highly skilled, trading may not really be gambling.
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February 24, 2018, 02:45:52 AM
 #5

I tried trading twice back in 2016 and "lost" 1 Bitcoin in total. Thats a lot, if you consider the last ATH. Not everybody is a born trader  Cheesy
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February 24, 2018, 03:48:29 AM
 #6

In a way trading could be considered gambling, but there a lot of different variations in gambling risk. What I mean is that some gambling games are completely games of chance like dice where there is no skill involved. But there are also games where skill is a factor such as in poker.

You can argue that risk in trading is lower if you are skilled at reading charts and if you do research on the coins you are trading. You may even be able to say that if you are highly skilled, trading may not really be gambling.
I would say that trading is not gambling. I think when we do trading then we can still do an analysis that can help us to take decisions, while playing trading then fully we hope to luck. Everyone must have a difference of opinion and I think it is fair. if calculated maybe only 30% of people who consider trading as a gambling.
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February 24, 2018, 03:52:52 AM
 #7

Indeed we can consider trading as gambling since it is tough to predict just like gambling. We cannot tell if we are going to have profit or not because the market table is somehow difficult to analyze. However, even though they are near to be like to each other still there's a big difference between the two because gambling is more risky compared to trading. Furthermore, gambling is all about luck while trading is more on analyzation.

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February 24, 2018, 04:16:27 AM
 #8

trading is a buying and selling process can not guess the price to come while gambling is predicting the price so bitcoin is not fully said gambling, bitcoin like we buy and sell goods in the market, it seems if you say bitcoin as a gambling place then you are wrong.
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February 24, 2018, 04:52:44 AM
Merited by RyNinDaCleM (1)
 #9

well gambling has a clear definition. it is something that you can not predict at all. it is 100% pure chance. for example when you roll a dice or flip a coin there is no way to know what the result of it will be. meaning pure chance.

but when it comes to trading and prices, it is hard to predict but it is not 100% unclear. you can expect certain scenarios to happen with different levels of certainty based on the market situation. and that is a big difference that makes it distinguished from gambling.

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February 24, 2018, 05:42:39 AM
 #10


Yep as another business with money behind everything there is always a big bet for the future with the purpose of winning the deal with the other party.
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February 24, 2018, 06:00:41 AM
 #11

Trading is always gambling and people espousing TA aren't much different from weirdoes who devote their lives to coming up with mathematical formulas they believe work on horse racing.

It's true that the real men are forged in sideways markets. We're nowhere near inert though and I don't think this current action can be called sideways when 10-20% can be gained or lost in a day. Try weeks of $250.

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February 24, 2018, 06:33:00 AM
 #12

Again wrong. Trading bitcoin is extremely easy after 5 years of doing it. All I have to do is buy when I see a certain amount of volume on a big drop. Its not like ordinary trading where you have to make your wins bigger than your losses. In bitcoin I always win. Yes it is alot harder once the bear market really sets in. I tend to stay out during this time. Within a few weeks I will be finalizing all my withdrawals (into a ratio of cash and bitcoin) and you wont see me probably until the next halving.

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February 24, 2018, 06:38:19 AM
 #13

Again wrong. Trading bitcoin is extremely easy after 5 years of doing it. All I have to do is buy when I see a certain amount of volume on a big drop. Its not like ordinary trading where you have to make your wins bigger than your losses. In bitcoin I always win. Yes it is alot harder once the bear market really sets in. I tend to stay out during this time.
If having risk considered as gambling then it can be, but in trading its our own decision matters, some says it is like we bet on such coin and will win if that arise in value which impact, we can earn or win in it by just trading it and buying more coins, it depends on once perspective but I still prefer trading at all.

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February 24, 2018, 09:41:11 AM
 #14

I would like to mention that even for exchanges ther is no 100% sure win in reality.
They have to deal with the side effects that a big concentration of crypto currencies in one spot has, and those are the hackers (inluding insider jobs).

Then I would like to add  that with trading you do not take money form others, they give it to you. And in return they get the desired coin which then can  be sold for an even higher price.
We live in an economy that is built on inflation, so selling the same good for a higher price over and over again basically has no limit.



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February 24, 2018, 09:52:36 AM
 #15

There's a thin line between Trading and Gambling and sometimes is really hard to differentiate between the 2 of them. Both has the element of luck, emotions and math and of course risk. How many times everyone here losses money because they can't control their emotions? But on the other hand, there are many here who because millions because of crypto, similar to hitting a jackpot in gambling. And sometimes you found yourself full of emotions in trading, similar to gambling wherein you can't control your bet because you have a feeling that the next roll of the dice will be in your favor. .Another worth mentioning is that to become a successful trader or gambler, one need years and years of experience but at the end, you still have the chance to lose everything in an instant.

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February 24, 2018, 10:39:21 AM
 #16

There's a thin line between Trading and Gambling and sometimes is really hard to differentiate between the 2 of them.

You can always tell the gamblers because they always go All In. They never practice risk management.

Basically the first aim of a trader is not to lose money, to protect yourself on the downside. This involves only staking 1/10th on a trade, looking for reasons why the market might go down instead of up, selecting entry points carefully. Being disciplined on exit (carrying out the plan) and not looking back even if the price continues up without you.

The gamblers like to stake big, it gives them a thril. They don't think about what they could potentially lose, only about how rich they're going to be when they gain. And because they don't practice risk management, one bad trade is enough to wipe them out.

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February 24, 2018, 12:22:06 PM
 #17

I have experienced shady exchange practices first hand back in the early days. In my cases it was on Mintpal and Cryptsy. The issues were Bitcoin deposits not posting during a massive crash of a certain altcoin, where the deposits posted exactly at the moment the market was bought up again. Disabling deposits and withdrawals of coins with massive spreads accross various exchanges, where everything was enabled again once the spread was gone. Orderbook manipulation where the orderbook adjusted itself based on how I was modifying a buy or sell order before I even executed the order

Craptsy had always been a shady exchange

Back in the day I had been actively trading doges and sometimes used this exchange for arbitrage. They were kinda market makers for many altcoins back then. Dogecoin is particularly interesting for shady behavior analysis because its price is minimal like 50 satoshi per coin, so there are always a bunch of orders at the same price, and that gives you an excellent opportunity to check for orderbook queue manipulation since when you place a new order you know exactly how much is sitting before you at that very price. There is no possibility to sell or buy more than that unless there is some orderbook queue reshuffling going on behind the scenes. And what do you think? I caught them red-handed and even made snapshots proving just that. They had nothing else to say but admit that it was likely a bug in their trading engine, huh. Regarding the topic raised in the OP, I agree that it is gambling for many newbie traders but it would be that even without profit takers like the ones mentioned

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February 24, 2018, 04:02:00 PM
 #18

This two have some relativity but still different from one another. Both have risk associated hut jn gambling you rely mostly on the luck while in trading you can make an analysis by consider the current trend of the market. And make conclusions out of it, meaning if you become kore familiarize with trading, you can come up with strategies and develop skills.
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February 24, 2018, 06:00:56 PM
 #19

Well, sort of, at least for the majority of ordinary and wannabe traders. It is relatively easy to earn money on a rising market but it becomes a completely different matter when a sideways market sets in like it is now in the cryptoverse. There are two major factors that turn trading into gambling for most players in this type of market which are presented below.

First, in any financial or speculative market, where Bitcoin rightfully belongs to, you can earn only if you take money from someone else. It could appear as if everyone earns with the rising price but things reveal their true nature when the price stops rising. It is kind of obvious but accepting this is necessary to understand why you can be the one losing the game in the end.

Second, some market participants have an unrestricted edge over the rest of the pack which means that under no circumstances they will be losing. These are arbitrageurs, insiders, exchanges and their likes. For example, it is impossible to beat exchange since it is 100% sure money for them when they can front run your orders and do a lot of other nasty things which you can't.

Given these two circumstances, it is easy to see that if you do not belong to the group of market participants mentioned above, trading pretty quickly turns into gambling for you. So your only chance to win is pure luck. But luck is not a friend of consistency, therefore the only consistency you can reliably expect is losing to someone who has an undisputed edge over you and the market.

Feel free to comment and post your thoughts and ideas here.
Your analysis is quite spot on but at least you have lesser chance to lose money when trading. You can lose all your money instantly when you are gambling. On the other hand, you will only lose all of your investment on trading if you failed to get out on time or when exchanges close. Most of the times, you would only lose a percent of it but not all. Still, it doesn't change the fact that you take money from someone else when you profit from a trade.

Strictly speaking, it is not quite so. You can lose all your money in trading just as easily and as fast. For example, if you are trading using leverage and you lose control over your actions (by being too greedy), you can get a margin call when the price goes strongly against you. Then all of your deposit gets completely wiped away in less than no time. On the other hand, you don't have to bet on everything in gambling. And if fortune smiles on you after a few losing bets, you can make up for the losses and hit a jackpot.
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February 25, 2018, 03:47:46 AM
 #20

I don't think that trading is gambling because trading and gambling are different although if we do trade and we don't have any guide at all then it might be we are gambling with our money but we still have a chance to get our money back. but in gambling, no matter how good our skills in any games, we don't have a chance to recover our losses and we are only losing from day by day. and in trading, if we have good skills in analyzing every coin in the market, we can always make a profit.

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