I hate to say this but sub 0.001 is now a possibility.
0.000 is a possibility. so what. no risk no reward. I quite recently spent a lot of time constructing a framework for the possibilities and their probabilities. I actually got 61% for the scenario that we are much lower than 0.001 in the end of 2017. So yes, both are possibilities. What I sincerely hope to be interesting, is the methodology for quantifying the possible gains, and making strategies. I think it's not far away from the truth that the EV of the gain is 3700%, and when personal utility is taken into account (hitting really big is not linearly as useful as hitting somewhat big), it is still in the order of 400%. I get it that most of you are here not to maximize gains anyway, but if anyone is, let's develop the thing further!  I have been working on an assessment of the possibility of offshore funds moving into this (or another) private untraceable asset class and the effects on the price of those assets. Ie trying to calculate expected value. Even if you assign very very modest percentages to that probability and the share which ends up moving in, an incredible EV is the outcome. The amounts of wealth being hidden offshore is just immense. Just the top 30 US companies account for a staggering 1,199,879,000,000$ (1.2 trillion) in 2014. http://ctj.org/pdf/offshoreshell2014.pdf An incomprehensible figure, and mind you, this is just the top 30 of companies. There are thousands of companies and individuals hiding wealth in those taxhavens. Estimates go as high as 32 trillion. And this was just in 2012! Imagine what that figure is now, with the excessive monetairy expansions in the US, Japan, EU etc. With the current budget deficits of virtually every government (sponsored by superlow interestrates created by the CB's) whilst (casually) trying to be solved with austerity or taxhikes on the one hand, and this excessive hiding of wealth on the other is a growing and dangerous disequilibrium. Once taken to far (and it's rapidly evolving that way) it will agressively flip and turn. Study history and you see this happening over and over again. What will happen to all of that stored wealth? Nobody knows, but chances are that some of it will be converted to a private untraceable asset class which has the properties of a scarce commodity, with the transferability of a mainstream currency. In the topic earlier it was asked what will happen at 2015.75 and that is, for me at least, the trillion dollar question  |
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Don't give that TrueCryptionaire any of your attention, since it's a scarce resource better spent on other stuff anyway. Not worth anyone's time, I personally stopped it a long time ago. "Newbie's"/beginning interested investors/speculators will poke right through this inept 'manipulation' with even the littlest due dilligence.
Anyways, as for what I'm thinking will happen:
The downtrend seems to be slowing down, some buys trickled in the mid 20 range to counter the selling action. By the looks of it, it seems like casual speculators are getting (back?) on board. (market buys with higher spreads, bids in 'different' places)
My earlier prediction of 23 range being the bottom still stands. If you look at the historic graph you see a lot of bounces of this resistance line, it has proven itself numerous times. I strongly believe we will see another stab at this level, and tbh wouldn't be surprised to see a double bottom form here. I have my bids around 0.00235 but have been contemplating whether to move them up a little bit more, to increase my chances a little bit more catching them here.
If 23 breaks on high volume for a longer period of time (ie a day or more) 2 things can happen. Either we pierce straight through the 21,5-22 to visit the 18 area (albeit briefly), or we will see a hefty fight in the early 20's. Historically a lot of resistance showed up in this area, combined with the fib counts i think this level will turn out to be real tricky for the bears.
For me personally it's not worth the risk to hope for that ultralow 20s buy in spot for an extra amount of xmr looking at the risks (missing out and having to buy in the 26 and thus losing 15%). But every situation is different. I was fortunate to sell quite high and have been gradually buying back in the 20s range with a lot of weight in the lower 20s (the 235 level). I just want my stash loaded up again before the next leg up starts, which I think won't be that far out. If this situation described above unfolds and a next wave builds, 43 will be an easy target and we can try to look for mid/end 50's.
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Now who's ready for a good ol' correction on the s&p favo o?!
<-- this guy!
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We have broken the 0.0028, and have been flirting with the next resistance level. I still believe the 0.0023 range is a very good candidate for being the bottom of this correction. I don't see us being below 0.002 for a long time since it's just a too good of a spot to buy in. If it does get there it will bounce of 0.0018 swiftly I guess.
A lot of money on the sidelines is waiting this one out. There's a lot of events that can trigger a bullrun, which will be explosive. Besides the usual suspects (ie exploit, zero cash, unexpected error/fork, cryptographic failure etc) there are less beartriggers in the short term. The biggest fight here is the inflation, which is one we're gradually winning...
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See you guys at 0.002  Don't get too greedy, go for 0.002347 |
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i somehow refuse to believe that after so great fundamentals and difficulty x times higher than 2013 summer
"Fundamentals" of an ordinary stock are the profits and capital assets of the underlying company. When you own a stock certificate, you literally own a slice of the company, so you own a slice of its capital assets and you are entitled to a slice of their profits. The fundamentals define the long-term price of a stock, although there can be a significant speculatiive element added to it in shorter time scales. Bitcoin has no "fundamentals". A bitcoin is like a share of a company with no product or service, no revenue, no capital assets. If you own a bitcoin you don't own any assets, and you are not entitled to any dividdends. The only thing you own is the certificate itself, whose only merit is that its current ownership is regstered in a supposedly ultra-safe registry that no government can tamper with. The only thing that fixes it price is speculation: your only hope of getting a profit out of it is finding someone who is willing to pay for it more than you paid. There has been perhaps a billion dollars invested into mining equipment, but bitcoin owners do not own a single screw of it. The mining industry has abut 800 k$/day of revenue, and some miners still make substantial profit; but not a penny of that money will go to the bitcoin owners. More than half a billion dollars has been invested in exchanges, payment processors, and other bitcoin-related companies; but, again, bitcoin owners do not own any piece of them. On the contrary, all the revenue of miners and bitcoin-related companies will come from the pockets of those who buy bitcoins. As for the difficulty: the market price determines the revenue of the miners, that determines the total hashpower, that determines the difficulty -- all indirectly, with substantial delays and distorted by accidents and errors of judgement. There is no reverse control channel: the difficulty has no influence whatsoever on the price. We're (trying to) assign a value to a network here, not a stock. Fundamentals for a network are #users, #tx's (useage), development of protocol, services on that protocol (i.e. potential use cases) etc. I like the 'land-analogy' when explaining the speculative mania surrounding bitcoin. It's like owning a piece of land which has not much going for it right now. But people consider the possibility of the land being a vibrant city one day because of the certain characteristics it posesses. On top of that, we're watching a very cool experiment unfold; the emerging of a international, decentralised payment and monetary system. This is the first time in history. In a world with so much central bank guidance, nirp/qe etc not bad to have an alternative to our money as debt-based system. Digital currency can also proof it's right/reason of existence in a scenario where complications unfold because of this. btw thanks for being on bitcointalk, jorge. I value your opinion and input. Clearly you're a intelligent person. I only sincerly doubt whether you'd be capable of changing you're mind/opinion when necessary |
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I'll donate a modest 25 xmr, this on top of the two beers I donated recently to him in person ;-)
Met him couple of weeks back, good guy afaik. Only risk lies within him not finishing.. (kidding, nice project, gl man!)
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Looking good Joja, we're getting a littlebit overbought tho. Gathering some steam around the 36-40 mark might not be a bad idea. Mr whale doesn't seem to agree with my zone and moved his wall up to 38. Let's not get ahead of ourselves and try to keep this as sustainable as possible.
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Dollar-parity.
About damn time we cross that mark.
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Daily hidden bearish macd/rsi divergence formed, warning active.
Rising bullish signal to 450 lower high break up.
Strong bearish prediction if price touch 208 low.
uh-oh... Are you with tim west for the bearish target? https://www.tradingview.com/v/iWXmzaeG/ |
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2 months ago:[...] The emission is still pretty high [...]
At that time we had: ~17000 daily emission * 0.30$ = $5,100 And you called it "high" Now:[...] At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow [...]
We currently have: ~16000 daily emission * 0.80$ = $12,800 And you call it "slow". Last time I checked, 12,800 is greater than 5,100. Since you're openly contradicting yourself, I question the entire legitimacy of your posts here. I believe 100% of them are purely self-serving, even if that may harm others reading. That surely harms the S/N ratio here. The thread is about "speculation", not about "plain contradiction". Your posts are not serving any other purpose than helping yourself and your current position, so try at least to do that more effectively. Hint: being consistent might help. Not clear enough? 2 months ago:[...] The big price increase will take place most likely after 6-12 months from now so we have plenty of time to buy coins until that. [...]
Now:[...] it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. [...]
If you are bitcoin-denominated guy whose major holdings are in bitcoins, the current emission is high. That's still true. On the other hand if you are fiat-denominated the current emission is low. That is due to the fact that bitcoin doesn't cost 1000 usd these days but 300 usd (give or take). Being self-serving is absolutely the truth (obviously). I admitted this earlier to you. I am also one of those internet trolls (I have not said I wasn't). My way of trolling is not speaking lies but just bringing different perspectives to the table. When the price is depressing, my writings are also depressing (I want to buy low). If the price is on rise, my posts are more euphoric (I want to increase the value of my holdings). There is ignore-button that you are free to push if you do not want to read my posts. Still I am thinking the chances are the price will rise to 10 usd (if we exclude possible skyrocketing of btc) at the latter part of this year latter than the early part. Don't react so stung, if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.  @binary, hehe nice one, you actually beat me to it |
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The market is crazy right now. 2k coins back to 0.0024 and someone is still market buying everything up to 0.0029. That's an insane spread.
a few hours ago we had a 100btc buy wall... maybe he got a little impatient Yeah course, very very weird price action though. Reeks of insider trading if there happens to be a big announcement around the corner. Could simply be anticipation for Monday's news (because it's always on a Monday). It's mainly because bids are not getting filled. I had similair issues before. You place some bids close to the action, action keeps moving up alongside with everybody else's bids. Eventually you just want to pull the trigger. Also, if you're investing for 1-3 years instead of trading the shortterm waves, difference between entering at .0026 or 28 isn't that significant. If you're a trader, that could be the difference between success and failure. |
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My feeling with regards to this area of thought (alts and 2.0) is the more complicated a platform the more points of failure it has. The more hackable, or gameable it is. Let simple systems cover the bases ie bitcoin, or monero, and let complexities be built atop and outside of that foundation ala CryptoKingdom, Coinbase, Silk Road, etc. Then let the chips fall where they may. Silk Road can be taken out while bitcoin survives.
Start adding things like "masternodes" to a protocol and you are building vectors into the foundations. It is not pure anymore. Build something like etherium, nxt, ripple, maidsafe... The complexity becomes vullnerability.
Nomatter all the good design and intentions most of it is just snake oil in the end.
In some ways the farther Monero has gone down the "THERE IS NO GUI!!!!" path the safer I feel being invested in it.
Agree. Relevant: http://cointelegraph.com/news/113655/dumb-vs-smart-which-network-is-better-for-bitcoin |
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If Satoshi were still in crypto, he'd be working on xmr who says he's out? who says he isn't? ( is it true? ) sorry i couldn't resist. who says it's a he? Not she, or them? ok rephrase: If Satoshi's still in crypto, Satoshi's working on xmr |
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If Satoshi were still in crypto, he'd be working on xmr |
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It's looking to be a great day! - Monero rally is continuing. 0.003 seems like a reasonable target for the short time. - Bitcoin is looking to make another stab at 300, with some of the resistance cleared last week this might be the attempt which proves succesful. Maybe a good news catalyst to give the final push; I'm thinking LMDB for xmr and Gemini for btc.  EDIT: Asks in xmr are drying up a little, 185k total (~70K =< 0.004). This is pretty low compared to the averages last couple of months...
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Is the consensus really that the selling of the last couple of days was this scammer? We had a 200% increase in 2 weeks, a correction was overdue. I'm not sure if it's reasonable to assume the stolen units are absorbed yet...
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so this is the dump from him that went down the price you think?
Could've also been a trader/investor anticipating a market reaction. Hard to tell. |
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do you guys expect another rise in price soon?
Yes. The roadmap is a juggernaut and we'll be on Craptsy soon(tm). How sure are you of this? People have been saying this since september.. It was in the 4hr interview somewhere. The host said cryptsy was currently working on implementing it, and thus voting wasn't necessary anymore. |
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Wow, that's incredible, not just for a BTC related company, but for any silicon valley tech company in stealth mode to raise that amount, has to have a very significant product and team. Count is now around 250 milions $ in Bitcoin venture capital in a little over TWO months now in 2015.. Is there a hotter tech trend out there? I don't think so.. Also Peter Thiel is invested. He seems to be slowly transitioning towards a more pro-bitcoin stance. |
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