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181  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Dreaded Double ** on: January 18, 2012, 02:12:21 AM
for sure, it is costing his customers who are now starting to walk away. 
I would seriously hope they are.

Anyone leaving more than a bit of lunch money on Bitcoinica after all that’s happened is either filthy rich or insane.


Ya think? Best post I've seen in a busy day. I made $0.03 today getting out of the way, good for me  Smiley
182  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why bitcoin is currently (Jan 16th) crashing and why it may continue on: January 18, 2012, 12:05:57 AM
Consensus opinion so for still seems to be a lot of denial...

Quote
"this is bull..."
Quote
"I blame bitcoinica"
Quote
"could this be the last opportunity to buy bit coins at a great price"

I don't think this sell off marks panic, it was simply an unravelling of the leveraged longs. I think a bunch of them will have been washed out, and i think the rest will be hesitant about jumping straight back in.

Pessimism has yet to grip these boards, and only then will the true panic selloff begin and we can start to think about finding a bottom.

+1
183  Economy / Speculation / Re: $7 - explaination of price level on: January 17, 2012, 11:16:07 PM
Looks like the media event gambit worked quite nicely. This sort of thing was SOP during the internet bubble day trading days and most often done with a press release:

Interesting possibility there, Dutch.  What if the same person that did the buying starting January 1st, is also the person doing all the selling now?  Denial can be strong, but one must admit that it's a possibility. 


Can you imagine such a thing happening? How surprising it would be!  Wink
184  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica: When does it implode? on: January 17, 2012, 11:03:18 PM
Someone set us up the bomb! Need more poll updates! All your Bitcoins are belong to us! Grin

Reading your posts, I had a suspicion you were 714. Something about the style. Intelligent, worldly, cynical. While that may or may not be the case, here you are, bumping one of his threads. Again, I wish there was a way I could bet on this stuff. I guess it would be a difficult bet to verify though.

No problem, there's nothing like a down day to bring out the paranoia. You would be surprised what you can find using the search function on these forums, let me see what else I can dredge up  Smiley

I wouldn't call it paranoia, you simply remind me of him.

That's some real innarestin' price action today, no? Tokyo opens in less than two hours, I wonder if there's more fun to come?

185  Economy / Speculation / Re: http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com off on: January 17, 2012, 10:38:11 PM
I see a page titled "Server Transfer In Progress" with a couple of links. Looks like they are working on it.
186  Economy / Speculation / Re: $7 - explaination of price level on: January 17, 2012, 08:25:14 PM
This is how it's supposed to work. You use an event like a press release, trade show, media event, etc as bait to bring in fresh fish. You first reel them up in price and then you set the hook. Tee hee!

I was just thinking of the TV show, which I still haven't watched. I burned out on formulaic crap TV written by robots assisted by monkeys a lot time ago and the show itself sure looks likes it from here, but I probably will get around to watching it sometime this week.


Looks like the media event gambit worked quite nicely. This sort of thing was SOP during the internet bubble day trading days and most often done with a press release:
1. Lunchtime Day 1: Press release announces dimwit.com has cured cancer.
2. Afternoon/Evening Day 1:  The fish all line up to load up on dimwit's stock, it shoots up. Short into the buying.
3. Morning Day 2: Continue shorting.
4. Lunchtime Day 2: Press release clarifies that cancer is only cured in the virtual online world created by dimwit.com. Stock tanks.
5. Afternoon Day 2: cover.

The above timeline is only an example, sometimes it might all be over by the end of Day 1, sometimes the fish would keep pushing dimwit.com up for a couple of days before it tanked and they moved on to the next internet miracle.

***

I did try to watch "The Good Wife" episode. It took a bit of fast forwarding, it was every bit the piece of tedious legal procedural "drama" it promised to be, 48 minutes, bleh! They said "bitcoin" a lot. Resolution was inane beyond belief. I think "Mr. Bitcoin" should have been a pet name for her husband's penis, revealed during the discovery process by an unusually located tattoo  Wink
187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica: When does it implode? on: January 17, 2012, 07:56:33 PM
Someone set us up the bomb! Need more poll updates! All your Bitcoins are belong to us! Grin

Reading your posts, I had a suspicion you were 714. Something about the style. Intelligent, worldly, cynical. While that may or may not be the case, here you are, bumping one of his threads. Again, I wish there was a way I could bet on this stuff. I guess it would be a difficult bet to verify though.

No problem, there's nothing like a down day to bring out the paranoia. You would be surprised what you can find using the search function on these forums, let me see what else I can dredge up  Smiley
188  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica: When does it implode? on: January 17, 2012, 06:06:54 PM
Someone set us up the bomb! Need more poll updates! All your Bitcoins are belong to us! Grin
189  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY! on: January 17, 2012, 03:59:36 PM
I think we're stuck in the $6 range because someone huge is cashing out.  Eventually they'll run out of money and we'll keep going up again.

You mean "run out of bitcon", and, I don't know, looks like there's plenty of unwanted bitcoin to go around.

I seem to recall some discussion from a while back ( last time it was around $3 ) that there was a large overhang of buyers above $7 left over from the big bubble, but I don't have any data. Can anyone offer any insight on this?
190  Economy / Economics / Re: Investing in BTC to Preserve Wealth - Silly or Practical ? on: January 17, 2012, 11:36:30 AM
Silly.
191  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: AMDOverdriveCtrl in Linuxcoin startup script doesn't have any effect on: January 16, 2012, 07:10:08 PM
Hey all

I would like to use AMDOverdriveCtrl to set the core clock and voltage of the two GPUs in my my mining rig - a 5870 and a 5770.
I have successfully made a script that sets these properties, and added it to be run in /etc/rc.local. The script looks like this:

Code:
#!/bin/bash
sleep 30
cd /home/user/
AMDOverdriveCtrl -b -i 3 .AMDOverdriveCtrl/5770.ovdr >> logs/overdrive.log 2>&1
AMDOverdriveCtrl -b -i 0 .AMDOverdriveCtrl/5870.ovdr >> logs/overdrive.log 2>&1

The problem is that when I start up my mining rig, and run "aticonfig --odgc" to see the clocks of my cards, they're at their default clocks (and voltages). So the script hasn't had any effect. This is printed to the log file:

Code:
Error: Unable to initialize gtk, is DISPLAY set properly?
Error: Unable to initialize gtk, is DISPLAY set properly?

The script works fine if I log in via SSH and execute it manually. But when run from /etc/rc.local, it prints the error message above.


You probgably need to export the DISPLAY variable: the following works for me from cron and such:

export DISPLAY=':0'
/opt/bin/aticonfig --od-enable
/opt/bin/aticonfig --odgc
/opt/bin/aticonfig --odsc=900,1150

It just occurred to me that that can be more than one DISPLAY address, e.g. ':1' with a multi-card setup, I don't have a way to test this. Perhaps someone else can help here, as nor do I use the AMDOverdriveCtrl.
192  Economy / Speculation / Re: $7 - explaination of price level on: January 16, 2012, 06:54:32 PM
This is how it's supposed to work. You use an event like a press release, trade show, media event, etc as bait to bring in fresh fish. You first reel them up in price and then you set the hook. Tee hee!

I was just thinking of the TV show, which I still haven't watched. I burned out on formulaic crap TV written by robots assisted by monkeys a lot time ago and the show itself sure looks likes it from here, but I probably will get around to watching it sometime this week.
193  Economy / Speculation / Re: Protect the money! on: January 16, 2012, 06:01:48 AM
I am the skilled, professional trader and I wanted to offend nobody... Simply wanted to notify about obvious correction, to help you not to lose many money....

This is a zero sum game.

Quietly please, the marks might hear you.
194  Economy / Speculation / Re: A Way to Spot Fake Walls? on: January 14, 2012, 10:14:40 PM
Ok I have been seeing this pattern for a while and I thought I would share it. Often when there are walls 300+ coins i see the same number of coins spaced an even distance apart. A good example of this right now are the 1.0 BTC sells from 6.492 to 6.498.

It is my belief that the bots are using these as warning indicators to cancel the sell walls. This is how false walls are put up and right now it is on the sell side which means someone is trying to drive the price down without selling at the low price. Someone is trying to buy bitcoin so we should take down those walls ASAP!

It's an application of an old technique. Even without using a bot one can use some variations of it with certain US stock brokerages that implement conditional orders. One simplistic example could be if a limit order to buy 1 unit at price X is executed, submit another limit order to buy 5 units at X+K1, 10 at X+K2, etc, finally selling 1000 units at price X+Kn; try to start a spike or rally and then sell into it. It's a crappy and trivial example, but it illustrates the idea. More sophisticated schemes using feedback to look for responses and target orders chasing the movement can be implemented pretty easily these days using http and scripting tools like Python.

I recall in the late 90s watching yoyos at stock daytrading operations in the US signal each other using orders with strange prices at odd lot sizes. It was ridiculously obvious when after hours trading was introduced as the number of participants would often be so small that one could pretty much look at the action on Level II quotes and see who was playing ping pong with who. It was also obvious to the US SEC, who took action against individuals and DT operations who were playing these games in attempts to manipulate prices.

The naïve and unregulated world of bitcoin provides an opportunity to blow the dust off practices that have been banned or simply passé elsewhere for years. Here's a fun public domain read, a cornerstone work from the 1920s, there may be a few tips here not covered in this forum  Wink

REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR by Edwin LeFevre
http://ebooks.gutenberg.us/WorldeBookLibrary.com/confessstock.htm
195  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Open Letter to Luke-JR About Alt-Coin Attacks on: January 14, 2012, 01:38:01 PM
Eligius was the first pool I used. I then became better acquainted with the operator's public persona by reading posts here, decided he was brain damaged in a way that I did not want to subsidize, and took my business elsewhere. No big deal, this was months ago.

The open source code use/attribution licensing requirement is simple and unambiguous. It must be done in whole, or not; end of story.

However, if Crusader Rabbit* is taking it upon himself to pronounce which blockchain ledger implementations are scams and which aren't, he needs to either come up for fresh air or quietly drown, as he has indeed gone off the deep end. They all could be characterized as scams when seen from outside Nakamototown, and in fact are by more than a few reasonable persons.

So, yes, in my opinion it looks bad when factions running the same basic confidence scheme are screwing around with each other. It doesn't matter whether or not that characterization is fair or correct. The perception of seaminess is already there thanks to Silk Road and others, it's not going away, and quarrelling amongst the children just reinforces the perception.

* Crusader Rabbit Crusade 1 Episode 01
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3hHQvkUhJo
196  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What if Bitcoin could end Hunger or Proverty or both ? on: January 14, 2012, 06:11:33 AM
People are only hungry or in poverty because they failed to embrace the correct brand of superstitious nonsense. Haven't you heard of The Secret? Surviving victims of the 2006 tsunami learned the error of their ways from the author, that will teach them to buy the book  Wink

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Secret_%28book%29

http://www.religiondispatches.org/books/1849/barbara_ehrenreich%E2%80%99s_bright-sided_explores_the_dark_side_of_positive_thinking/
197  Economy / Speculation / Re: Resistance at Current Level Evaporated on: January 14, 2012, 05:48:07 AM
Honestly, I don't think its bears or bulls. It is some people with a ton of money who just push the price around when they feel like it for whatever reason, then it stabilizes at whatever new price they have chosen.

Totally agreed. There is no bulls or bear in this market, sorry to pop your cherry, but the guy above speaks the truth. A small group of millionaires are manipulating the market. They are taking turns taking profits and you can easily tell because every sell off comes a rally, rinse and repeat.

You guys got it.

Don't tell the folks having all the fun talking about free markets, Elliott Waves, supply and demand, etc. This is good practice for them in always having an explanation ready even if for no one other than themselves. Not so much for the Wavers though, the game they play is well known for making it trivially easy to fit whatever "patterns" one want to any set of data points, and to refit completely divergent variations at the drop of a new sample point  Smiley
198  Economy / Speculation / Re: To all manipulators here on: January 13, 2012, 09:32:51 PM
I don't like how this 'self manipulation' is taking over this thread - this makes it not safe for work and quite frankly pretty disgusting.

You're participating in a total cercle jirk while complaining about the use of the word "manipulate"? LOL, funny stuff, keep it up.

Perhaps you should be looking at putting a short butterfly spread right in the money, then doubling down below the neckline.

199  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is stopping Gov't from starting their own blockchain... on: January 13, 2012, 09:17:08 AM
Why would they?

Govt = central control and currency issue via "trusted" (LOLZ) third party.
Bitcoin = decentralized, and operated without need for "trusted" third party.

Agree completely. Nothing is stopping anyone from creating a block chain, there are already more running around than have yet to show any practical purpose. Why would a government or for that matter anyone else want to?

This is a topic extensively covered elsewhere on this forum. Appropriate head gear is suggested for the various different premises offered. For example you may want 1890s style sleeve garters and a green eye shade cap in one section of the forum, for another a pillowcase with eye holes cut in it, in another a tinfoil hat, and so on.

It's not like a blockchain is all that useful by itself, you can execute transactions in it; that's nice. Attempts to make it useful have created a lot of centralized infrastructure around Bitcoin in particular, the most prominent examples being the currency exchanges. Who would have ever thought that "Magic The Gathering Online eXchange" would seriously be a large part of something that some people seem to regard as their Armageddon ace-in-the-hole?

So, maybe if the US government created something like The Federal National Second Life Mortgage Administration to rescue all the investors underwater on their Second Life properties, they could throw a blockchain in there just for the effect  Grin
200  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Welcome to Nakamototown! on: January 12, 2012, 07:42:11 PM
Don't mind Dutch, folks. I think there's something in that Kool-Aid, he's obviously been at it a bit too long. Wink

Seriously, welcome everyone to the bitcointalk forums. Lots of good information here, lots of friendly and knowledgeable people (and some douchebags as well, but you'll get to recognize them soon enough!). Once you get your 5 posts and 4 hours in, you'll have full access to all of the boards.

Hope to see you there out in the Wild!

That's right boys and girls, they're "friendly", no such thing as a "bad touch" here  Wink

Once again, welcome to a dream come true, make it yours and you will never need one of your own!

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