It's not that easy, I doubt the initial rise if it happens soon will be from new people, you don't read about exchange taking hundreds of millions of users money and sending money to another exchange same day.

If we go up now, it's money from old bitcoiners, noobs might join later if it goes up but them starting it at this moment - I doubt it.

People are off their heads gambling on that toxic gox shit! If there was really a silver lining don't you think everyone in the know and there familys would be buying and the price would be 5x higher now??

I base my argument on experience how people here express themselves and react on different arguments.
It's different from investing into Apple or Google, because people actually built things that matter with these investments. With bitcoin the investments mostly go to mining. In other words to build machines that in the general perspective don't contribute to anything. The problem with bitcoin is that it causes arms race in mining, while the increasing size of the network doesn't actually improve anything. It doesn't improve the speed nor security. Just empty work done and resources wasted for something that could be done with a lot less.
The system did make sense in a time where there were only CPU/GPU mining and no pools, but now it's only a fools game with unnecessary wasting.

I agree, and I am not saying I would EVER do business with them again. I am not trying to make any judgements on how trustworthy they are... I think the bitcoin world has already made that judgement and they are guilty, no matter what. I am merely trying to figure out whether they will open up btc withdrawals. thats all.

Glue this poster everywhere you can

Zyk... you said you were going to debunk the statement I made, but you didn't. Instead you spread fallacious claims. Did you not read my last post? Karpeles NEVER SAID THAT DOCUMENT WAS AUTHENTIC.

Furthermore, your argument is that you don't need evidence because it is a "fact" that no one sold under 300. Unfortunately, you forget that the very definition of a fact is something that can and has been proven with evidence. A lack of counterexample is not proof.

please srop allowing your anger to distort the truth.

Karpeles has a lot of bitcoins. He is an early adopter and he was running one of the biggest exchanges. He must have more than 100k btc for himself in cold storage which was not related with mtgox. He is not an idiot he is told to pretend it. For sure a lot of bitcoins may have been lost but the problem here is the trust. If mtgox enable bitcoin withdrawals and the 550k costomers or a portion of them loose trust and try to sell their bitcoins then the price will go down down down... So the best strategy for him and for big investors is to claim that all btc had been lost if the majority eat that manipulation. The "leaked" document and the irc conversion is for testing reactions.

Pure manipulation...

And why didn't Mtgox sell all of those coins at a much higher price? And don't you think that such a move would be far too obvious? I am sorry zyk but even if you were ultimately right, you have more confidence in your theory than the facts warrant.

I have seen to many conversations on this thread start as meaningful discussions and then devolve into unsubstantiated theories and hyperbole. It's not that I think you are definitely wrong, just that I wish we could go back to having a productive conversation about what is going on here, because some of us still have a significant amount of money there so we don't have the luxury of sensationalizing this story by only thinking in extremes. Also I don't see why people rip on his weight so much... he is an asshole...period.

Things I believe to be true:
1) After speaking with Karpeles, Charlie shrem claimed that we (people stuck on gox) can "expect good news" sometime soon.
2) around the time of the btc withdrawals freezing, there were attacks reported on mtgox as well as on other exchanges
3) it may have been possible to exploit the tx malleability problem in order to steal bitcoins from users' accounts without mtgox even knowing.
4) the US attorney's office in new york is subpoenaing mtgox, and the US and Japanese authorities are carrying out an investigation
5) the document outlining mtgox's recovery strategy has never been confirmed as authentic, and its probably fake.

Could you give some evidence that it is a cover up please? It seems to me that the transaction malleability problem, the hacking problem, the incompetence, the insolvency, they are all a part of the same big shitstorm. Someone was stealing from them by taking advantage of transaction malleability, they were too incompetent to realize it or wrote it off, and now they are insolvent. And yes, they are criminals as well by not doing something earlier. But there doesn't have to be just one big fat criminal in this story; there could be a few. I personally don't think they have the balls to just sell all of our btc, and that idea sounds a little farfetched.

these are things wich have been initiated from longtime and would have been in their queue for excution

that doesnt mean nothing about the actual today situation

I am reviewing my thoughts, there are 2 voices in my head now, the first is telling me that there will be small drops but we will go up but the second and strongest one is telling me it is not over and that we will drop further and we will drop even less than 400.

I am trying to convince my self and gather my thoughts but the gox situation is not letting it go, I cant let it go and I am starting to think that we will sink even further... any thoughts ?

Easier to agree with you here. The important question is not yet answered, how will the fall of gox be played out. Will there be a bail-out where gox will be bought and the customers will get what they're owed, or will it just be a bankruptcy with all the money magically disappeared.
The first option isn't easy. It would be a noble act if someone invested so much, just to save the integrity of the market, but it does have it's risks. For instance, what stops another exchange from repeating what gox did and by that nullifying previous attempts to save the integrity of the market? Only solution that I can see, is some kind of an self-regulatory system that will separate trustworthy exchanges from the shadowy ones.
I agree, that right now you can't speculate the future, because there is no solid information to speculate the future on. Fall of gox could be a good way to show integrity and responsibility around bitcoin, but it could also make it lose all of it's existing positive halo.

ok, thanks. This may sound like a stupid question, but what about the possibility of finding the theives who stole from everyone (other than gox)? That possibility has already passed right?

It took me a long time to understand the Gox situation, so I am not surprised to see people here in the same stages I have gone through. You have to understand who Mark Karpeles is. Look at his cat videos. This is a man selling a dead parrot. There is no credible buy-out in the making. There are no coins at Gox. He is still in denial, trying to restart the engines on the Titanic after all the lifeboats have launched. The coins are gone. forever. The magnitude of the loss is hard to fathom, but when it does sink in, the realization of how precious and rare bitcoins are starts to become clear.

Denial is a powerful psychological force.  Some things are too awful to contemplate. But who is in denial here, bulls or bears? critics or boosters? This Gox thing has shaken me to the core. We should all question our assumptions. Bears, I don't disrespect you. I just disagree. Bitcoin exhibits anti-fragile characteristics and just experienced a major stress shock and got much much stronger as a result.