Bitcoin Forum
May 25, 2024, 05:21:25 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 »
181  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Announcement: Bitmain launches AntMiner solution, 0.68 J/GH on chip on: March 07, 2014, 09:15:44 PM
Placed my first order with bitmain today paid immediately after.  Transaction is verified on blockchain yet order status says Unpaid Unshipped Expired.  I've sent them a email with transaction id should I be concerned or is this not uncommon?

This happened on an order I placed earlier in the week - I sent an email, and about an hour later it was updated to show that the order was paid.  It arrived, on time, today.  Hopefully you have similar luck  Smiley  I believe my email was during business hours in China, fwiw.
182  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Finally, a correct (endgame) difficulty calculator on: March 05, 2014, 01:15:07 PM

Makes sense for the materials, but would there be an impact on electricity prices, particularly if ASICs were centralized in a low-rate area?

Sounds far fetched. Most of those cheap electricity area's have cheap electricity because there is an abundance of eg hydroelectric power. There are enough of such regions that I cant see bitcoin mining making a difference there, not at todays exchange rate anyway. You speak of dozens of MW, but the larger hydroelectric installations have a capacity in the thousands of MW (and are often under utilized). The entire world uses 20000TWh per year, just how much difference can you imagine bitcoin mining will make?


I don't think bitcoin mining will make any difference in worldwide energy usage - you're right it is too small.  I am talking just about localized usage in areas where rates are low - I do think dozens of MW can make a difference in price in local areas where price is low and supply is in the thousands.  For one, the energy usage for bitcoin mining is continuous - once you have a 15 MW datacenter in place, it will draw 15 MW 24/7/365, or as close to it as possible, by design. 

Data centers in the US of comparable size already struggle with varying power costs, enough that researchers are proposing algorithms that would allow data companies to shift server load to data centers where the price is low at the moment.  (http://www2.ece.ohio-state.edu/~xwang/papers/icpp12_datacenter.pdf)  Bitcoin mining does not have that option - it has to run constantly.  It's not hard to find articles discussing concern on an increase in energy prices in areas where companies propose to build data centers that would utilize dozens of MW. 

My point is only that while Bitcoin miners can locate themselves where power costs are lower than average, they cannot necessarily count on power use that is dramatically lower than average, at least not on a large scale. 
183  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Finally, a correct (endgame) difficulty calculator on: March 04, 2014, 03:34:31 PM
At some point would the number of ASICs produced increase the price of their raw materials, silicon, PCB, power supplies, as well as the price of electricity?  Or is supply of these things so great that the increase in demand won't materially change the prices of those components?  

For some perspective, the industry ships 10 billion ARM based chips per year. Yes billion with a B. While those are much smaller, far lower power etc, they still use the same fabs, still need PCBs, need to be packaged etc, so no, bitcoin asics will never be so high volume as to cause systemic shortages anywhere.

The only place I can imagine were you might see temporary shortages is (water) cooling and highend PSU's, but those vendors should have no real problem ramping up production given a bit of time. After all, the PC industry ships a million PC's per day, so the supply chain and infrastructure is in place (and increasingly running idle as PC shipments dwindle).

Makes sense for the materials, but would there be an impact on electricity prices, particularly if ASICs were centralized in a low-rate area? Particularly in the case of places like Kuwait, where someone pointed out that electricity rates are extremely low ... in many of these areas they are low because the region is energy-rich and the government subsidizes the cost of electricity.  I doubt those same governments would subsidize a massive, for-profit ASIC farm.  They can run the farm themselves, but then their cost of electricity is what they could otherwise sell that electricity for, not the cost minus the subsidy.  In other areas, prices may be low due to weak demand.  What would adding 15 MWh (roughly the cost for 10 PH/s, right?) do to the electricity market in some of the low cost areas in Russia, for example (where prices vary greatly, I understand).

I may be off in my calculation, or the amount of electricity is similarly small compared to the size of the overall market.  Otherwise, it is best to use a rate of electricity where there would be no marginal impact on price by adding the additional power consumption - I don't know what that rate is, though I would guess it is closer to the rates seen in the US and Europe than other places.
184  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Finally, a correct (endgame) difficulty calculator on: March 04, 2014, 06:35:32 AM
Where did you get your numbers for 36$ per 28nm ASIC Manufacturing Costs?

I'd expect that to be behind several NDAs..

The silicon cost is calculated based on the price per wafer and number of candidates per wafer.  Its not like TSMC or GF have pricelists on their website, but there is plenty of industry analysis literature out there that gives an idea. Im using $4000 per processed 300mm 28nm wafer, which is last years average price. I dont have a public source for you for that, but this may show the ballpark is at least correct:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20110912192619_TSMC_Reportedly_Hikes_Pricing_on_28nm_Wafers_Due_to_Increased_Demand.html
Note the articel is from 2011.

Prices may have come down further since 2012, and I strongly suspect bitcon asics use less layers than the average (making them cheaper), but otoh $4000 is a volume price that may be out of reach of bitcoin asic vendors today. Since this is an endgame calculator, that doesnt matter much. To get to the above numbers, bitcoin asics would have to become fairly big volume anyway.

As for the other costs, chip packaging is typically calculated per ball, with $0.003 per ball being a good rule of thumb. That works out to ~$3 per chip. The additional $4 per chip I used for testing and handling is probably way too much.

At some point would the number of ASICs produced increase the price of their raw materials, silicon, PCB, power supplies, as well as the price of electricity?  Or is supply of these things so great that the increase in demand won't materially change the prices of those components? 
185  Economy / Gambling / Re: Just-Dice is not provably fair to gamblers on: February 27, 2014, 05:32:29 AM
Quote
By default its not provably fair, perhaps should put this on your site:

This game is provably fair*

*At Just-Dice, those steps are:
1) make a note of the server seed hash
2) set your own (unpredicable) client seed
3) play as much as you like, making a note of your rolls
4) verify the rolled numbers


No, by default the game is provably fair.  Provable is an adjective, it means that something is capable of being proven.  Just-dice can be proven to be fair.  As Doog explained, the user just has to take certain steps to do that.  And, as far as I know, of those who did take those steps, just-dice has been proven fair 100% of the time.  

Every user has the ability to prove that the game that they just played is fair.  It sounds like you just want the site to make it easier for users to prove that the game is fair.  Doog's position appears to be that the benefits of that, if any, are outweighed by the negative impact those changes would have on user experience.  If anyone disagrees, I'm sure there are other dice sites that make it easier to prove fairness, and if not, create one!  Maybe you're right, Doog is wrong, and users do prefer the steps to prove fairness to be easier, even if it requires changes that may be a detriment to the user experience.  Maybe there's some room for innovation there, and it can be done with little to no cost to the user experience.  

The point is, the game is fair, and with some effort that can be proven by anyone playing it if they follow Doog's instructions.  Just-dice is provably fair to gamblers.

The potential for anyone in Doog's position to do something dishonest (walk away with investor money, cheat his own site, switch the game with a different game that is unfair) has nothing to do with the fairness of the game.  That potential exists whenever someone must place their trust in someone else.  You can never prove that there is a 100% chance of honesty.  But you can make a rational, informed judgment, and all things considered this seems to be a pretty safe one considering the various incentives, at least in this context (I know little about and can't comment on whether the site is safe from hackers, for example, though it is a pretty big target and as far as I know other than a manual payout mistake early on, not much of any has been lost).
186  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / Re: WTS RIC/RIECOIN on: February 12, 2014, 11:15:53 PM
I have 300 RIC for sale @ 0.008 ea.

About 11251175 more available (1425 total) if you're interested, though I am inclined to wait until they are on an exchange as this coin is very difficult to mine and there will not be much of a supply for quite a while.  But I will listen to offers.  

PM me with offers, price is firm on the first 300, though.  All trades through escrow.

Edit:  No, you can't have remote access to my computer to prove that I have the coins.  We will use escrow, period.  To anyone else selling/buying, please don't fall for this one.

Edit 2:  300 SOLD.  Not letting any more go at the 0.008 price, but will listen to offers on the remaining 1175.
187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 10, 2014, 12:43:33 PM
The proportions of the impact still feel very suspicious, Gox basically took some old and well known (to devs) things, and "turned" them into "news" about btc protocol. I dont want to believe that the whole crypto market is that retarded to panic so hard based on such "news"

There should be something more to it.

I think the impact is due to the damage to the perception of bitcoin in general.  Unfortunately Mt. Gox was still a major exchange, even after all their problems throughout 2013 and even before.  

Best case scenario, Mt. Gox is able to wind down in an orderly fashion, and people finally move to better exchanges (and we need better ones).

Worst case - this drags out, Mt. Gox keeps changing the story, and in the end lots of people lose a significant amount of money.  

Either way, bitcoin's reputation took a hit, and that is reflected in the price.  How much is not yet known, and that is why things will be volatile for a bit.
188  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Is an exchange which is 'virtual currency only' a money transmitter? on: January 28, 2014, 03:23:54 PM
Be sure to distinguish between the application of a law and the enforcement of a law.  The laws would still apply.  The question of how they would be enforced (to which I think you were referring) is a different matter.
The law cannot be applied if there is no treaty between U.S. and other country, in which Uncle Sam try to apply it.

Maybe I can be clearer: US Courts will exercise jurisdiction over foreign Bitcoin companies doing business in the United States, regardless of the existence of any treaty with the foreign country.  However, US enforcement agencies may not have the practical ability to seize property, or otherwise affect the business of a foreign entity.

Hope that helps.
Nonsense, they just have no jurisdiction outside USA, despite whatever they say. Otherwise why don't any random european law apply to usa?

A foreign country's laws can apply to US companies, if they do business in that foreign country and that foreign country decides that its laws apply to companies operating outside its borders.  Mr. Santori's point on enforcement would apply as well - the US may not cooperate in enforcing that foreign country's laws.  Or they may.  Enforcement depends on a whole host of factors, and treaties are just one factor.
189  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2014 could be a slow year for bitcoin on: January 20, 2014, 02:28:01 PM
Given the huge price increase in 2013 and the way 2014 started, with a sharp rise to ~1000 and long rest time in the 800s, I'm speculating that we'll see more price stabilization and less ups/downs for a looong time.

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza and distribution of majority is in the hands of just a few people.

Check this:
http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top500

You'll see positions 33-36 (4 addresses) and 38, 40, 43, 44, 45 each one with ~30,000 coins, all wallets with last transaction in on Dec 20, 2013 9:07:23 PM. This means about 250,000 coins held by a single entity.

You'll also see positions 79-98 (20 addresses) with about 10,000 coins each, last tx in on Dec 25, 2013 11:26:40 PM. Total is about 200,000 coins.

If we sum first 500 address, that means 4,364,182 BTC. I'm assuming less than 50 people control these 4 million coins.

This mean scarcity and scarcity means high price. High price means less buyers and less buyers mean less volatility.

Welcome to 2014, year of bitcoin stagnation.



As others have said, divisibility defeats the "too high to be used in small transaction" argument.  Otherwise, stability is a good thing.  Hopefully, sometime soon, we'll all wake up to hear something like: "The US Dollar was down about 1% against Bitcoin in early trading this morning on rumors that the Federal Reserve will ...."
190  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Coinbase $9 surcharge on 1 Bitcoin? on: January 19, 2014, 12:38:18 AM
You're paying for the exchange of one currency to another. 
191  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: btcQuick.com Feedback Thread on: January 17, 2014, 04:36:17 PM
I have been trying to get in touch with this company for over a week now. EDIT
If you are trying to reach this company the only way I got in contact was either twitter or email. The only email address I got contact back was Jerrod@btcquick.com. I am EXTREMELY satisfied with their service. I used them back in October for 2 transactions. 1 for 1 BTC and another for .5BTC. Basically I never transfered my .5 to my wallet which was only $75 at the time. Now however it's about $420 and they completely resolved my issue giving my .5BTC. They found my order # right away and even gave me the correct info to log in. I was logging into wrong account so in actuality it was all my fault. Either way I am completely satisfied with their service and would recommend using them. I would follow on twitter and keep Jerrod's email handy just in case you do need customer support, but other than that I am 100% sasified.

I'm glad you were able to get a response.  They are still ignoring me, but hopefully this means that they are just backlogged and trying to get through requests.  Either way, this is totally unacceptable in my opinion.  I certainly will never trust them with my money again. 

I plan on filing a complaint with the Colorado Dep't of Regulatory Agencies - Division of Banking by COB today if I do not hear back from them.  It is fairly simple, the link is here - http://cdn.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite/DORA-DB/CBON/DORA/1251626387387.

It seems that they are not registered in Colorado as a Money Transmitter, at least not under the name that they use, though I do not know if they are required to be registered. 

A quick search for "btcquick" here - http://www.sos.state.co.us/biz/BusinessEntityCriteriaExt.do - shows that they are registered to do business in Colorado.  It appears that they are run out of a residential apartment in Littleton, CO. 
192  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: btcQuick.com Feedback Thread on: January 16, 2014, 03:52:04 PM
Now you can't even logon,   I think they may be shutting down.

Same problem here - waiting on 1.2 btc that were promised on January 13 - the $$ was taken out of my account on January 7. 

I've sent a number of emails and opened a ticket.  In the past, they were always very quick to respond.  Now, they've apparently adopted the Coinbase model of customer support.
193  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Coinbase - where are the deposits? on: November 05, 2013, 02:31:15 PM
Possibly - they've been great so far so I hope that this is just a one-time thing.  It would be helpful if they explained any delays, service interruptions, etc. quickly on their blog.  Most people don't mind waiting a couple days (if it is just that), as long as they know what is going on. 

It's also interesting that their pricing is closer to Gox than to Bitstamp recently, and the buy/sell spread has been low (though it spreads out when volatility increases) - maybe they are experiencing increase demand for coins, and are buying at a higher price to keep up with the demand.  I guess it takes them longer to receive money than to send it out, so the delays could be a reflection of the higher demand. 

Not necessarily a bad thing.  This run-up has been interesting in a number of respects.  There seem to be patterns of buying at different times per day - possibly correlating with when buyers' exchange accounts are replenished with transfers from their fiat bank to the exchange?

But to inform the customer of one date, then tell them another date is bullshit. According to their website my deposits should have hit my bank November 1st. It says that right there in my transaction details. Now they email and say November 7th. Since then BTC prices have risen and I could have made more money else where. They're not going to compensate me for holding my money hostage, so I have to diligent about these transactions and stay on top of them. I'll switch back to Dwolla, I don't care.



Good to hear you received a firm date - mine are only a day late so I haven't asked yet.  You are right - the date they say the deposit will be in your bank, it should be there, unless your bank somehow holds it up.  Up until this past week, deposits to my account posted early on a consistent basis.  This is the first late one.  They should say something like "your funds will be deposited to your bank no later than xx date."  If that date if 5 days from now, and the deposit posts in 3 days, great.  But at least I know not to plan on having use of those funds for 5 days. 

In a perfect world, it would be next day, every time. 
194  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: CEX.IO on: November 05, 2013, 02:19:54 PM
I wish there was a way to short GHS on cex.io - the price over the past 10 days or so seems irrational, and there's nothing I can do about it - that I know of.
195  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Coinbase - where are the deposits? on: November 05, 2013, 02:15:39 PM
Possibly - they've been great so far so I hope that this is just a one-time thing.  It would be helpful if they explained any delays, service interruptions, etc. quickly on their blog.  Most people don't mind waiting a couple days (if it is just that), as long as they know what is going on. 

It's also interesting that their pricing is closer to Gox than to Bitstamp recently, and the buy/sell spread has been low (though it spreads out when volatility increases) - maybe they are experiencing increase demand for coins, and are buying at a higher price to keep up with the demand.  I guess it takes them longer to receive money than to send it out, so the delays could be a reflection of the higher demand. 

Not necessarily a bad thing.  This run-up has been interesting in a number of respects.  There seem to be patterns of buying at different times per day - possibly correlating with when buyers' exchange accounts are replenished with transfers from their fiat bank to the exchange?
196  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Coinbase - where are the deposits? on: November 05, 2013, 01:53:46 PM
Same problem as well - usually if I sell by COB the deposit hits my account the next day ... day after at the latest.  Still waiting on 2 from the 30th...  Has anyone sold coins since Oct. 30 and received a deposit?
197  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrimeDice, Just-Dice, SatoshiDice and Co - ALL unethical and BAD for Bitcoin on: November 02, 2013, 06:31:47 PM
The top dice sites, particularly the 3 mentioned in the title, do not log ip addresses to "taylor" the odds. Except for SatoshiDice, the other two already have you make an account, so they don't need your ip address since you are logged in as one account already.

And you're advertising one of them in your signature.


per:

http://just-dice.com/


Your IP address has been blocked for an hour.  Sorry for the inconvenience.


hmmmmm!! yes they do  Roll Eyes

I don't know for certain, but that message probably came from an outside company used to defend against DDOS attacks.  In other words, that message came before you were redirected to the dice game's website.
198  Economy / Economics / Re: Why The Price Difference Between MtGox & BitStamp? on: October 19, 2013, 02:52:36 PM
My opinion this is because of the difficulty in withdrawing USD and generally CASH from MtGox. Leading to continious and increased flow of cash to exchange USD-BTC since it's the only way to withdraw money from there, BitStamp withdrawals are still going (for verified accounts) and therefore the flow of USD To BTC is just the normal.

So basically, a $ is worth less on MtGox due to uncertainty and difficulty in withdrawing it.  Thus, traders demand more $ on MtGox in exchange for a bitcoin. 

The cost of the uncertainty and difficulty can be measured by the difference between the MtGox price and the Bitstamp price, with an adjustment for fees.

Sound right?
199  Other / Archival / Re: What's happening to Bitstamp? on: August 27, 2013, 02:45:01 PM
Could be part of an overall price increase related to possible expansion of the war in Syria.  Oil and gold are up too over the past couple days, while equities are down. 
200  Economy / Gambling / Re: bitZino - Bitcoin Casino - Now featuring 3 Card Poker! on: May 29, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
Answer me this how are the cards dealt in blackjack on bitzino?  Is it a new deck of 52 cards every deal?  

Short answer: our blackjack game uses 8 standard 52-card decks which are reshuffled before every hand.

Long answer: Every single blackjack hand played on bitZino is a fresh set of 8 decks of cards (each of the 8 decks are standard 52-card decks, thus making a blackjack deck contain 416 cards). Before each hand a fresh blackjack deck (containing 416 cards) is shuffled on bitZino's servers using a cryptographically secure random number generator. The hash of this "initial_shuffle" is then presented to you, and your browser are also asked to generate a random "client_seed" (you are also free to manually modify this client_seed). BitZino's servers then reshuffle the deck using the client_seed provided by you as the source of randomness.

This reshuffling process is what allows the game to truly be provably fair. Since our servers have no knowledge of the client_seed until the exact moment the game is starting, it is impossible for us to manipulate the outcome of any games, without making it obvious that we've done so.

I'm happy to answer any more questions about our provably fair process! We also wrote up a detailed technical blog post if you really want to get into the nitty-gritty details: https://techblog.bitzino.com/2012-06-30-provably-fair-shuffling-through-cryptography.html

The odds of a single player getting blackjack on the first hand of a fresh 8-deck shoe are 2*( 4/13 )*(( 4*8 )/( 52*8-1 )) or 4.7451344%.

The odds of that happening 5 times in a row, assuming each new hand is a new shuffle and is completely independent, are (2*( 4/13 )*(( 4*8 )/( 52*8-1 )))^5, or 0.00002406%.  Put another way, there is a 1 in 4,156,276 chance of that happening over the course of 5 hands.  Very unlikely, but the more hands you play, the more likely it becomes that it will happen.  Bitzino's blackjack can be played very fast. I haven't calculated my rate of play but I wouldn't be surprised if I could play 15-20 hands per minute if I really tried.  I've seen some major streaks, both good and bad.  It is amazing how your mind will trick you even when you know the odds and are reasonably certain the game is provably fair.  And it it seems like a natural human tendency to think "Hey, I'm lucky!" or even "Hey, I'm good!" when a streak went in your favor (as a few did for me last week), and "Hey, they must be cheating somehow I haven't thought of!) when a streak went against you (as a few have for me recently).  Of course, there was no horseshoe up my ass that later left, and the game is fair.  

At the end of the day (and I have no stake either other than as a player) I choose to gamble at Bitzino for two reasons - (1) a solid reputation of honesty, openness, and fairness built over time and (2) pretty much the most favorable game of blackjack for the player that you can get.  The house edge is very small here.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!