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This promotion is working really well, people are wagering a lot.
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Nice, finally DOGE! Let's see if players like this promotion.
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Could I join as one of the Sr members even if I'm legendary?
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After having found out in the main thread that the graph doesn't really show profits, but "profits" before some expenses, your work is even more appreciated, Lutpin, so it would be great if you kept updating it.
You could simply show a table with all coins in a column and then one column every month, with the invested balance at that time. Therefore we could see how profitable would it had been to invest in each coin since you started tracking them (and how volatile the investment was).
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Once again, graph is sum of profit investors made. Thats all. Minus all the fees and rewards.
That's what you weren't mentioning, and it makes a big difference. Investors profit is always minus fees and rewards, or it isn't investors profit. Profit is what investors actually get, not what they get before "X". |
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Once again, graph is sum of profit investors made. Thats all. Minus all the fees and rewards.
That's what you weren't mentioning, and it makes a big difference. |
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Anyway, I'll split that time in different periods as you say and see what's going on, but I suspect the graph is showing profits before fees.
No. Its not. Graph shows actual profit paid out to investors after fees. There is one issue with graph that I am aware of... bankroll size isn't 100% precise on graph as we don't store it in database every day, but we show sum of all active investments on that day including todays profits (active investments change all the time...). Graph is more for informative purposes. Well, the difference is quite big from what I actually made and coincidentally it's very near the profits I would have had without fees. I run the same exercise but every month, which should be more accurate than just assuming bankroll was constant since July 25 2018, and I get that returns following your graph would have been 10.19% (bigger than if bankroll had been constant since that date, as I previously thought), while I made only 7.43%: Date Bankroll Profit Capital if bankroll is Constant during the month My investment 07/25/18 1523.63 1133.86 1.0000 1.0000 08/01/18 1549.17 1134.93 1.0007 09/01/18 1526.08 1146.17 1.0080 10/01/18 1527.49 1148.98 1.0098 11/01/18 1515.00 1203.59 1.0459 12/01/18 1447.85 1212.71 1.0522 01/01/19 1486.70 1226.54 1.0623 02/01/19 1496.46 1241.40 1.0729 03/01/19 1476.07 1246.89 1.0768 04/01/19 1440.69 1263.00 1.0886 05/01/19 1385.25 1272.56 1.0958 06/01/19 1382.68 1284.69 1.1054 07/01/19 1285.11 1280.17 1.1018 07/02/19 1285.84 1280.30 1.1019 1.0743 The formula to calculate capital is ((profit at that point in time-previous profit)/previous casino bankroll+1)*previous capital. For example, for 8/1/18: ((1134.93-1133.86)/1523.63+1)*1 I don't see referer and faucet rewards in your formula? What do you mean with that? I'm just using data from your graph. Aren't those supposed to be the profits that investors made (although as I'm saying I made around 70% of that amount)? |
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Anyway, I'll split that time in different periods as you say and see what's going on, but I suspect the graph is showing profits before fees.
No. Its not. Graph shows actual profit paid out to investors after fees. There is one issue with graph that I am aware of... bankroll size isn't 100% precise on graph as we don't store it in database every day, but we show sum of all active investments on that day including todays profits (active investments change all the time...). Graph is more for informative purposes. Well, the difference is quite big from what I actually made and coincidentally it's very near the profits I would have had without fees. I run the same exercise but every month, which should be more accurate than just assuming bankroll was constant since July 25 2018, and I get that returns following your graph would have been 10.19% (bigger than if bankroll had been constant since that date, as I previously thought), while I made only 7.43%: Date Bankroll Profit Capital if bankroll is Constant during the month My investment 07/25/18 1523.63 1133.86 1.0000 1.0000 08/01/18 1549.17 1134.93 1.0007 09/01/18 1526.08 1146.17 1.0080 10/01/18 1527.49 1148.98 1.0098 11/01/18 1515.00 1203.59 1.0459 12/01/18 1447.85 1212.71 1.0522 01/01/19 1486.70 1226.54 1.0623 02/01/19 1496.46 1241.40 1.0729 03/01/19 1476.07 1246.89 1.0768 04/01/19 1440.69 1263.00 1.0886 05/01/19 1385.25 1272.56 1.0958 06/01/19 1382.68 1284.69 1.1054 07/01/19 1285.11 1280.17 1.1018 07/02/19 1285.84 1280.30 1.1019 1.0743 The formula to calculate capital is ((profit at that point in time-previous profit)/previous casino bankroll+1)*previous capital. For example, for 8/1/18: ((1134.93-1133.86)/1523.63+1)*1 |
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Might be grave-digging here, but is there any-chance you'd be able to update this Lutpin?
Very interesting to see the growth.
I do still make monthly snapshots of my investments, so no data is lost while this thread isn't being updated. However, I currently do not have that raw data prepared and presentable in any form. The main reason I stopped doing updates here is because I really didn't like the way I was presenting the returns. My plan is to transition to an interactive chart that allows all readers to gain more information and value from it than the previous screenshots of a chart and table do. I've occasionally worked on preparing that and on carrying over the data from the old format to the new one, but that's low priority for me and I've been kept busy by other things. If I have some surplus free time, maybe once summer vacations come along, I'd be more than happy to finish that up and add the months currently missing. Updates should also be easier for me to make, once everything is set in the new place. If there's a huge demand for the data meanwhile, I could also make some limited updates to this thread until the new format is ready, eg only do updates on BTC and ETH. Let me know what you think about both, and how many people would be interested in it, if anyone. I'd love to see updates. Even just BTC would be fine. DOGE could be interesting too as it had the highest returns I think. I personally keep a small investment since July last year to track how profitable investing here has been (which is useful to estimate how much it will be in the future too). |
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I used the second way of calculating it. These are the exact numbers (in Bitcoins):
July 25 2018. Bankroll: 1521.37. Profit: 1133.86
Today (now). Bankroll: 1281.73. Profit: 1276.78
So, assuming bankroll didn't change, investors should had made in that period of time: (1276.78-1133.86)/1521.37=9.39%
As bankroll kept dropping, profits for someone that stayed invested all the time would actually be higher.
Not necessarily. As the bankroll decreases in size, your share of it goes up, which means you share more of the profit, but equally share more of the losses of the house as well. Lately, SuperStar has been winning a lot (a combined profit over 10 BTC at the time of this writing), which are losses that are proportionally stemmed by all investments. Let me explain this with an example: Say you have 15 BTC invested as part of a 1500 BTC bankroll. For a fixed period of time, the profit for investors is 100 BTC. You share 1% of that, increasing your investment to 16 BTC. Now the bankroll drops to 1000 BTC. In the following period, investors make a loss of 20 BTC. The chart would show 100 BTC-20 BTC= 80 BTC of investors profit over both periods. Your 16 BTC investment shares 1.6% of that (0.32 BTC), decreasing your investment size after both periods to 15.68 BTC. While the calculations over a fixed bankroll tell you to expect (100-20)/1500= 5.3%, in reality you see 15.68/15= 4.2% This effect of losses at a later time compared to profit at an early time is increased by the fact that any profit made by your investment gets automatically added to it and becomes part of your investment. That means that not only does the total bankroll decreases, giving you a bigger share of losses to cover, but also your individual investment increases, further driving up your share.
Side note: I thought I had already been pushing my accuracy with a 3 month period. 1 year is just too long a time to make a rough estimate over, imho. If you want anything accurate, split the year into 4 or even better 6 or 12 parts and calculate expectations for each one of them. I understand that mechanism. However, as during that period of time what happened is that the casino made money, instead of losing it, while bankroll decreased, profits are very likely to be higher than with a constant bankroll, and therefore higher than 9.39%. That's quite far from the 7.16% I made, and by coincidence, it's near 70% of the graph's profit if we consider they were higher than 9.39% as bankroll decreased (not constantly, but in general). Anyway, I'll split that time in different periods as you say and see what's going on, but I suspect the graph is showing profits before fees. |
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There seems to be something wrong with "profit" at the invest charts. From July 25 2018 to today I made 7.158% on my investment, while the graph shows a profit of 9.39% based on the initial bankroll on July 25 2018. Bankroll has actually kept on dropping since then, so profits should actually be higher than that if adjusted to the bankroll that existed every day (which is something that would take a lot of time to calculate, but it'd be higher than 9.39% for sure). This makes me think that what is shown in that graph aren't investor profits, but "profits" before the 0.3% fee you charged investors every hour (on wagered amount), so around 70% of what investors actually made.
I believe we've talked about this before. I've made a fairly long post about this when you asked last, which you might have missed. Since you never followed up on it, I assumed my post answered the question. I'm gonna be lazy and quote it here, instead of writing it up with recent numbers. Same as back then, feel free to ask further questions, if you still don't understand something after this.
I think I understand your confusion and I have previously discussed this topic with someone else who had a similar question (IIRC it was thenerd314, who afaik reads along this thread, so if he wants to chime in...). Since I don't quite recall whether it was in this thread, in my tracking thread, or in the chat, and since searching all 200 pages/my 5000 posts would be a lot for me to go through, I'll briefly sum up the essence of it once again. Feel free to follow up on my explanations, in either of the three places.
For better understanding, I will use the numbers from the BTC chart as examples (also, since BTC is the most popular together with ETH, it likely is the one you were looking at or others would have questions about). I'll look at the chart in a 3 month period (meaning from Oct 18th to Jan 19th, you can replicate the view I get with the 3mo button). For those reading at a later point, or not familiar with the chart, this are the numbers shown: Bankroll Size: relatively stable, starting at 1497.6 BTC, ending at 1477.7 BTC, lowest at 1342.8 BTC, highest at 1519.9 BTC, for the sake of making an estimate, I will appraise the bankroll size to be fixed at 1480 BTC in my calculations. This introduces a small error, but the accurate calculation is too complicated and not needed to explain what I want to show.Total profit: starting at 1198.15 BTC, ending at 1235.31 BTC, which equals a profit of ~37 BTC for all Bitcoin investors over the last three months.
What I assume you did (and correct me if I am wrong, but that's the misunderstanding I helped clearing up in the past) is the following: If the total profit grew from 1198 BTC to 1236 BTC, meaning an increase of 3.1%, then my investment should increase by 3.1% as well. However, this is wrong. The total profit line/number tracks investors profit from the very beginning of public investments and shows the raw profit, without taking bankroll size (the second line in the chart) into consideration. To calculate the increase of your individual investment, you have to take this number and weight it against your share of the bankroll. With Bitcoin, and the numbers being so close together (1200 BTC and 1400 BTC), people sometimes forget about this, since the above increase is "realistically" possible. If we do this with a profit of 37 BTC and a bankroll of 1480 BTC (our earlier appraisal), we would get an increase of 2.5%, not 3.1%. This should be closer to the return you have seen. However it still is not 100% accurate, since the bankroll size changed due to new investors and leaving investors, thus at some points your investment had a lower share of the profits and at some points it had a higher share.
I hope this explanation has helped some of you to understand reading the charts and gathering the information from them they desire. I would urge everyone with more specific questions about investments (or a follow up to this) to head over to the dedicated investment (tracking) thread maintained by me: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.0This way, discussions like this one can be easier found by others having the same questions, and do not get burried within hundreds of pages about other aspects of the site. I'll also link this response specifically in my "special posts" section over there to make finding it easier in the future. I used the second way of calculating it. These are the exact numbers (in Bitcoins): July 25 2018. Bankroll: 1521.37. Profit: 1133.86 Today (now). Bankroll: 1281.73. Profit: 1276.78 So, assuming bankroll didn't change, investors should had made in that period of time: (1276.78-1133.86)/1521.37=9.39% As bankroll kept dropping, profits for someone that stayed invested all the time would actually be higher (as you said, to calculate that more accurately, even if just daily, would take a lot of time). However, during that time, as an investor I only have 7.16% more than I invested. This number makes sense if the graph's "profit" isn't actual profit but "profit" before the hourly 30% of edge cut (so without that fee I would have made around 10%, which is approximately what the graph represents if we consider that bankroll dropped during that time). |
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There seems to be something wrong with "profit" at the invest charts. From July 25 2018 to today I made 7.158% on my investment, while the graph shows a profit of 9.39% based on the initial bankroll on July 25 2018. Bankroll has actually kept on dropping since then, so profits should actually be higher than that if adjusted to the bankroll that existed every day (which is something that would take a lot of time to calculate, but it'd be higher than 9.39% for sure). This makes me think that what is shown in that graph aren't investor profits, but "profits" before the 0.3% fee you charged investors every hour (on wagered amount), so around 70% of what investors actually made.
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Some Dogecoin promotion would be great. Wagered/day has dropped a lot, and its price in relation to BTC too.
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A Dogecoin promotion would be nice now that Dogecoins are cheaper (in BTC).
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Ethan should post here more often. The effort is minimal and it would give both players and investors more confidence to use his platform.
Probably he is very busy in real life lately and it is right then I can say it is understandable. As long as there is other people who can cover what he needs to do in this forum so it is enough. Indeed it may make players and investors feels a bit uncomfortable if the owner is not really active here but there must be a valid reason of the inactivity. You are never too busy not to post at least one message per month. There have been too many cases of owners disappearing, he loses lots of money if even a few people feel less safe investing because of this. |
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Ethan should post here more often. The effort is minimal and it would give both players and investors more confidence to use his platform.
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It's not just because it was added after ETH on the site, not just because it has a good rank in coinmarketcap. The reason why people use it, especially me in yolo, is because it is cheap and with a low amount of money, you will get more coins if you turn it into a doge and you will have more chances to bet.
Hello, I am new to the platform, I have many Doge, I would like to know if the chances of playing with only Doge is better or increases the chances of winning ?? Or is it better to pass it to bitcoin? And if you can go inside the direct platform from DOGE to Bitcoin.
Just gamble your DOGE. YOLO. |
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What happened on September 12 and 13 2018? Based on Dicesites data, https://dicesites.com/bitvest, the casino lost 165 BTC but they were inmediately won back a few days later. |
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Is 4% yearly interest still being paid? I don't see anything on their website about that.
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Signature campaigners strike again.
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