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1801  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: March 26, 2013, 01:29:37 PM
Its so strange seeing Lucif converted into a bull.

Who knows? Maybe Lucif is a wealthy Russian elite, and the Cypriot fuckup has impacted him personally.
1802  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 11:29:33 AM
Have you guys noticed the EUR price at Bitcoin24? It's at 64 right now compared to 60 at MtGox and has been to 69.6 which translates to $89. One could easily make a handsome profit by doing some arbitrage.

How long does it take to withdraw Euros from Bitcoin24 then get the deposit to clear at MtGox? What can happen to the Bitcoin price in that time?

For short-term arbitrage, you just need to keep funding the accounts with BTC and $ then flip. You don't have to move the $ around at short notice.


Problem is: those EUR markets have been higher than mtgoxEUR for weeks now.

Yeah I have a theory actually that mtgox's authentication time lags are the reason for this price swap between them and the other exchanges. If thats true, not only is it pushing more people into other exchanges (good for decentralization/ resiliency), its also insanely bullish.

The problem is can other exchanges properly secure their users' money? Arbitrage is only profitable when there is large money flow, i.e., big traders feel confident enough.

So, rpietila, feeling profitable today?
1803  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bull trap? on: March 26, 2013, 08:57:39 AM
Some of you guys did not check the date of the OP?
1804  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Why is UK so slow to jump on this? on: March 26, 2013, 05:50:24 AM
Good old days of britcoin come back, when I used to be able to credit my exchange account in one day with no fees whatsoever incurred. Embarrassed
1805  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: BlockchainLess transactions on: March 26, 2013, 03:32:27 AM
http://gavintech.blogspot.com/2012/07/off-chain-transactions.html

About direct transferring of address without mutual trust, see here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=66862.0

1806  Economy / Speculation / Re: To all of you that sold < $60 in the past few days... on: March 26, 2013, 01:47:00 AM
Anyone who sold < $60 does not know how to read accumulation distribution.


Please elaborate.

Note, that as the two hour candles are declining in value the accumulation distribution actually rises. This means that volume is generally higher on candles with a high close location value, and the volume is generally lower on candles with a low close location value, eventually tipping the balance back to a positive money flow. And for a longer term indication that USD continues to flow into the exchange the 21 candle Chaikin money flow managed to stay in positive territory the entire time.

This is enough to tell me to hold on. A shorter time scale might have led someone to a different conclusion, but I think that can be a dangerous way to try and gather information while on a parabolic slope. I would have to find evidence of a concerted and sustained reversal of money flow before selling. Believe me, I have been looking for it, and I have not found such evidence, so I have been holding on.

While this rally may superficially appear to be similar to events of 2011 the devil is in the details. Comparing the details of money flow is enough to convince me that this rally is much more decisive, with less fear than was involved with the 2011 run up. There is a lot of confidence that new money is coming into the market.



Good post, will make a note to find out more about these money flow indicators.

I like it, and we will have conclusive evidence soon, Gox is preparing a financial report.
1807  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 01:28:03 AM
Large wall has moved to 76.5 from 77.

Someone trying to force the price down? To what end?

"Stop the rally for a moment, my wire transfer has not arrived yet."

probably Loaded preparing us for the upswing, or something Tongue

FYI: Loaded literally means invested to the maximal permitted amount. That also means he will get out of his position when it is no longer profitable.

Slight misinterpretation, he said he will only trade when there is a clear profiting opportunity.

No straight on the term comes out of the turtle trading rules.

Read them.

It's you who tried to literally interpret what he said, and if you do not personally know him how do you figure out he believes in the same set of trading rules as you do?
1808  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 01:09:04 AM
Large wall has moved to 76.5 from 77.

Someone trying to force the price down? To what end?

"Stop the rally for a moment, my wire transfer has not arrived yet."

probably Loaded preparing us for the upswing, or something Tongue

FYI: Loaded literally means invested to the maximal permitted amount. That also means he will get out of his position when it is no longer profitable.

Slight misinterpretation, he said he will only trade when there is a clear profiting opportunity.
1809  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 12:51:06 AM
Large wall has moved to 76.5 from 77.

Someone trying to force the price down? To what end?

"Stop the rally for a moment, my wire transfer has not arrived yet."
1810  Economy / Speculation / Re: Proudhon wrong again on: March 26, 2013, 12:31:54 AM
Whatev.  Thank you everyone for playing rally because rally.  Kinda nice to get it all out of the way on Monday.

LOL someone is butthurt ^  Roll Eyes

He thinks people here are the reason behind the rally?  Shocked Maybe that's way he keeps hanging around?  Tongue
1811  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 25, 2013, 04:11:45 PM
I should repeat something I already said about the quick expansion("bubble" according to some people's definition), if you were around at the time of 2011 bottom, you know the market volatility measured by percentage variation was even bigger than what we are seeing now, a manipulator with  a few million dollars could have his own way with the market, and Nagle said something like"a supermarket's daily liquidation could crash the market", which was true. It's obvious that no seirous business could operate in such a market, if that's what you envision about bitcoin,  fine.
1812  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 25, 2013, 03:53:13 PM
Now onto a more serious note, I think bitcoin will have a thing or two to teach some of the economists, Keynesians etc.
by crashing ? from a bubble and then going into another bubble ? a phenomena that happen mostly because of money printing and credit expansion

Well, at least you knew to add the adverb "mostly".
1813  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 25, 2013, 03:40:39 PM
Now onto a more serious note, I think bitcoin will have a thing or two to teach some of the economists, Keynesians etc.
1814  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 25, 2013, 03:36:14 PM
I bet all those people that sold 50+ coins at 72 are really laughing at us bulls now.




o wait.

There use to be a saying around here something or another about bitcoin teaching nerds economics.
What that meant I haven't figured out yet.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27348.0 You meant this guy? Grin
1815  Economy / Speculation / Re: Parity watch -> Aruba on: March 25, 2013, 03:28:16 PM
Which one would be the next nation to go? Wait..... Grin
1816  Economy / Speculation / Re: Proudhon appreciation thread on: March 25, 2013, 02:29:03 PM
I always enjoy Proudhon's posts and appreciate the consistency of his message.

Single Digits or BTCust!

I bet proudhon has loads of coins, and will be buying loads more if his predictions ever actually come true  Wink

I have never seen anyone so rich would waste so much time trolling, they get better things to do.

How do you know he is rich? Maybe he doesn't have any BTC at all.

That's what I said, if he were as rich as some here believe him to be he would not waste so much time trolling.
1817  Economy / Speculation / Re: Parity watch -> Turkmenistan on: March 25, 2013, 11:04:43 AM
The M1 of Cyprus is about $ 15 billion, which is also roughly the global physical demand for silver http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment , so I think it would be a great landmark.
1818  Economy / Economics / Re: this is a bubble. on: March 25, 2013, 10:29:48 AM

The price went up 700% during the 5 weeks after 10/01/2010, from 0.06 to 0.5, and it only took another 2 months for the price to keep staying above 0.5, so I guess....
that does not count and you know it. anyone with 200$ could have done it. here we are talking about something like 600M$(rough estimate, pulled out of my ass, based on the maket cap.)

So you are basically saying:" Once enough money pours in, it can be done."

I know it looks ridiculous(I feel seriously unsettling as well), but I doubt all those thrown down $1M-2M orders in the blink of an eye are that stupid.
calculated risks: they want you to think that bitcoin are going higher, and then they sell. price pumping 101.

on the other hand: my mother does not know about bitcoin yet: bitcoin is not going to 200$

No, I don't think those who can spend so much in such a manner would go through all the hassles of moving their money into Gox, just to make a few hundred thousand bucks and leave it.
1819  Economy / Economics / Re: this is a bubble. on: March 25, 2013, 10:20:22 AM

The price went up 700% during the 5 weeks after 10/01/2010, from 0.06 to 0.5, and it only took another 2 months for the price to keep staying above 0.5, so I guess....
that does not count and you know it. anyone with 200$ could have done it. here we are talking about something like 600M$(rough estimate, pulled out of my ass, based on the maket cap.)

So you are basically saying:" Once enough money pours in, it can be done."

I know it looks ridiculous(I feel seriously unsettling as well), but I doubt all those thrown down $1M-2M orders in the blink of an eye are that stupid.
1820  Economy / Economics / Re: this is a bubble. on: March 25, 2013, 10:11:53 AM

The price went up 700% during the 5 weeks after 10/01/2010, from 0.06 to 0.5, and it only took another 2 months for the price to keep staying above 0.5, so I guess....
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