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1801  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 22, 2012, 05:22:30 AM

But that's not even the main point, there's something much more basic that you're missing. Suppose I want to take a long position of X BTC on Pirate. I can do this by either depositing in his program or by offering X BTC worth of bonds. Assume the worst case that Pirate buys them all. Then this increases his incentive to default by X BTC, and if I deposited in his program I would also have increased his incentive by X BTC. So choosing to offer these bonds has no effect on the incentive to default, and that's assuming the worst case - if people other than Pirate buy bonds, his incentive to default decreases (when compared to the case that I obtained my position by depositing).

What you're really saying is that depositing in Pirate's program is a very bad idea as it encourages default. Which may be true, but has nothing to do with this. This bond allows people to deposit negative amounts which discourages default, unless pirate deposits a negative amount in his own program which makes this neutral.

I don't understand your reasoning and would appreciate a better explanation  (I'm not saying you are wrong, just that I'd like to understand your arguments better).  

In my mind, what you are doing is creating a new market for Pirate. Previously he had to rely upon people investing (a decision that he doesn't control), but now he can take action himself (either by an internet proxy/fake identity or an accomplice) and make money off of you.  I guess so long as this is a small amount of money it won't exercise a big influence on his decisions, but I also really don't know what kind of sums either party is dealing with.

Now when you and other people (the pass-through bond for instance) create new markets for Pirate you are creating new inflows that allow the Ponzi scheme to grow larger - this will probably allow it to last longer, get larger, and hurt more people when it collapses.
If I didn't offer the bonds, it is likely that I would have instead invested funds in BTCST. He is "making money off me" due to the fact that I chose to take a long position, but he is not making any more money due to the fact that I obtain this position by offering bonds rather than investing. In fact he will be making less money because he has to pay a fee on top of the face value. All of this is of course under the assumption that he does in fact have malicious intents.

Positive bonds such as PPT.X, on the other hand, do allow more cash to flow into Pirate, but I still believe the effect is small.
1802  Bitcoin / Press / Re: A big cover story in the weekend edition of The Marker [Israel] on: April 22, 2012, 04:00:18 AM
It's not the first time we've had articles about Bitcoin, but this seems to be a step up in terms of length and quality. The overall tone seems to be positive but only mildly so - an unenthusiastic acknowledgement that the thing has potential in spite of the rough start.
Would you be so kind as to provide some kind of better-than-google translation for us English speakers?
It's a bit long. I'll see if I can find the time to do it later today, the half of it that is about Bitcoin anyway.
1803  Economy / Marketplace / Re: A new Humble Bundle and bitcoins not accepted -- make your voice heard on: April 21, 2012, 09:09:10 PM
Last I heard, they were working with MtGox on this. It might happen once MtGox's merchant tools allow for immediate conversion to USD.
That's stupid. I suppose nobody told them about Bit-Pay?
1804  Bitcoin / Press / Re: A big cover story in the weekend edition of The Marker [Israel] on: April 21, 2012, 08:33:46 PM
It's not the first time we've had articles about Bitcoin, but this seems to be a step up in terms of length and quality. The overall tone seems to be positive but only mildly so - an unenthusiastic acknowledgement that the thing has potential in spite of the rough start.

Interestingly, the article fails to mention anything about Bitcoin in Israel.

Here is an excerpt:
Quote
Bitcoin is the first digital currency that gave up from the get-go on the mediation of credit companies, and set up a clearing system independent from the current monetary system. With its launch it has been embraced enthusiastically by online communities, including of course subversive websited like Wikileaks and the hacker group LulzSec who accepted Bitcoin donations, exchanges for trading in the online currency have been established, as well as websites hosting "virtual wallets" and the range of services one can buy with it has expanded from Alpaca socks (an online joke that became the unofficial mascot of the currency), through video games all the way to meals in a number of restaurants in cities such as New-York. But there are those who would cliam that this is a kind of sophisticated pyramid scheme, or a ponzi scam, or that this is a bubble.

The Haaretz article also says that
Quote
Centralized inspection ensures that the coins are mined at a pace determined in advance.
Yeah, I know. Also says the inventor is Satoshi Nakamura (though he does seem to be the master of time and space). This article also has a Hebrew version (http://www.haaretz.co.il/news/2011-year-ender/2012/1.1603318#), I tried to control the damage in the talkbacks but you know how these things go.

Edit: It also seems there was an article on TheMarker about Bitcoin earlier this month, http://www.themarker.com/wallstreet/1.1677670, though that is little more than a translation of Naomi O'leary's Reuters article (which wasn't very good to begin with).
1805  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: DMG Minning Pool varriables on: April 21, 2012, 07:45:54 PM
Ok I'm trying to pick between DMG pools. I read https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=39497.0 but it just made my head swim.

Could someone tell me from a miners perspective if higher or lower is better for these variables?

f - Fixed fee.   - I'm guessing lower the better?
c - Average variable fee. -Same with this one?
o - Cross-round leakage.  - Haven't a clue.

Also does ping to a pools address play a factor in anything?
The most important factor is (1-f)*(1-c) which is the average payout rate. But that's a non-issue since AFAIK most or all currently existing DGM pools are free so they will have (1-f)(1-c)=1.

If the above is fixed, you'll want c to be as high as possible. o depends on your preferences and on the value of c. For fixed c, lower o means payments arrive faster but are more variable.

High ping can increase your invalid shares rate.
1806  Economy / Marketplace / Re: A new Humble Bundle and bitcoins not accepted -- make your voice heard on: April 21, 2012, 07:37:15 PM
For reference, I have contacted them about this multiple times, as early as 9 months ago (and I had at the time reason to believe they had already known about it, which is why I didn't give a detailed explanation). Here is the discussion.

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on July 27 2011
Hi,

Is it possible to pay with bitcoins for the indie humble bundle #3?

In case you haven't heard of it, Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized digital currency. The easiest way to get started with Bitcoin is using the service http://www.instawallet.org .

Thanks,

Meni

Quote from: Eric Samuel on July 27 2011
Hey there,

Unfortunately we can not accept Bitcoin at this time. However, it is something we are aware of and are very interested in Smiley

Thanks for your support!

Eric
Support Ninja Master
Humble Bundle, Inc.

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on November 29 2011
Hi,
Any updates about this topic? I would like to pay with Bitcoin for the Humble Introversion Bundle.
Thanks,
Meni

Quote from: Eric Samuel on November 30 2011
Hey there,

At this time Bitcoin still is not an option, and we have no timeframe nor a commitment to make it happen. There are numerous issues to factor in.

Thank you for your continued support,

Eric Samuel
Support Ninja Master
Humble Bundle, Inc.
1807  Other / Off-topic / Re: about the begging signatures... on: April 21, 2012, 07:14:58 PM
For me a forum address is first and foremost a cultural thing. If you are a part of the Bitcoin community, you should have a Bitcoin address associated with you.

And, it was also supposed to encourage the culture of embracing Bitcoin's power of low-friction transactions to express gratitude in the form of microdonations. It's not a huge success.

but when i check their addresses in blockexplorer, they invariably appear empty.
My forum address is not empty.

Let's just admit that technique doesn't work
It doesn't matter if people tip you or not, they should have the option.

and start actually doing something useful to earn some BTC...
The forum address is meant to be used to earn BTC for useful things that cannot be otherwise monetized. But I haven't heard of a forum address standing in the way of anyone doing useful things that can be monetized.
1808  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Sell Bitcoins for paypal? on: April 21, 2012, 05:45:22 PM
All I want to do is convert BTC to dollars in a paypal account, not the other way. Will PayPal block my account if I am doing this?
They could. As well as the account of the other party.

Is it possible to sell Bitcoins on an exchange which then transfers your money to a PayPal account? I'd like to avoid using a bank account for this. MtGox doesn't seem to support paypal...
You would be hard-pressed to find such an exchange, for the reason stated above.

https://www.spendbitcoins.com/convert/paypal/ seem to offer converting Bitcoin to PayPal.

If you can use Amazon Payments instead of PayPal, you can try CoinCard which is highly recommended.

I'm going to avoid selling without an exchange website so I don't get scammed.
If you do the trade with a reputable member of this forum or bitcoin-otc there is close to 0 chance of being scammed, and it's also not very likely PayPal would find out.
1809  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 20, 2012, 03:11:48 PM
This is another very interesting offer! But one thing doesn't seem quite right...
The issuer has the right to buy back the bonds at 160% of their face value. This cannot be exercised if there is substantiated suspicion that a default has already taken place.
If you make the buy-back price 200% of face value, there will be no need for people to trust that you will not buy back the bonds just in advance of a default.

Your provision regarding "substantiated suspicion" sounds reasonable, but it won't feel very satisfactory to the few outliers who are convinced the default is about to happen then lose their bonds for 160%. At 200%, no-one can complain.
This makes sense, I'll think about this.
1810  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 20, 2012, 03:02:38 PM
Meni, instead of responding to trolls on this thread, why don't you just create your offering on GLBSE, announce it here and start selling shares?
Creating assets on GLBSE requires planning. I wrote the OP when I was ready to write the OP, not when I was ready to create the asset. If all goes well it should be a matter of days.

Rest assured that MPOE-PR's objections are not holding me back.
1811  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 20, 2012, 02:14:00 PM
Quote
Ok, now I know you're just trolling.
Let me point out to you, Meni Rosenfeld, that throughout this thread I have been speaking as to facts. You have been speaking as to persons.
I think you'll find that most of your posts in this thread contain personal attacks, including the first and the latest.

A number of people have suggested that your behavior is unacceptable. There are two possibilities, either we're all wrong and you should stop wasting your time on us, or you're wrong and you should stop wasting our time.

You are no longer welcome in this thread.
1812  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 19, 2012, 07:23:08 PM
I liked the idea at first.

But now it sounds like Pirate could default, run away with all of the deposited funds and make extra money from the options (held by a collaborator or fake account).

Now I think this is a very bad idea as it encourages default.
The currently intended scale of the offering will be such that the additional incentive, compared to Pirate's existing holdings, is negligible. If Pirate isn't planning to default now, it is highly unlikely that buying this bond will convince him to do so.

But that's not even the main point, there's something much more basic that you're missing. Suppose I want to take a long position of X BTC on Pirate. I can do this by either depositing in his program or by offering X BTC worth of bonds. Assume the worst case that Pirate buys them all. Then this increases his incentive to default by X BTC, and if I deposited in his program I would also have increased his incentive by X BTC. So choosing to offer these bonds has no effect on the incentive to default, and that's assuming the worst case - if people other than Pirate buy bonds, his incentive to default decreases (when compared to the case that I obtained my position by depositing).

What you're really saying is that depositing in Pirate's program is a very bad idea as it encourages default. Which may be true, but has nothing to do with this. This bond allows people to deposit negative amounts which discourages default, unless pirate deposits a negative amount in his own program which makes this neutral.
1813  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] PureMining: Infinite-term, deterministic mining bond on: April 19, 2012, 05:54:05 PM
Ok, that was weird.

The customer who recently purchased bonds directly from me has had second thoughts. He requested to sell (most of) them back to me, at a lower price of course. I agreed to this as well.

Since I now possess more unsold bonds than I intended, and I made some net profit out of these two trades, I am offering >5000 bonds for sale at the lower price of 0.37 BTC each.
1814  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 19, 2012, 05:00:41 PM
What do people think about renaming from Anti-Pirate to Antimatter? Less descriptive, but way cooler. Smiley
I was asking about pirate posing as someone else and buying these contracts, thus adding to his incentive to default.
I don't really think it'll happen, but given that the people buying these at least have some degree of uncertainty about him, it's conceivable that some people might be worried about it.
The people buying these bonds will want Pirate to have additional incentive to default.
They will? I assumed they would primarily be used as part of a hedging strategy. I guess it then incentivizes pirate lenders to buy up all the bonds to prevent pirate's sockpuppet account from doing it first, lest he have perverse incentives Smiley
That's not a likely use case. Every Anti-Pirate bond negates an equivalent pirate investment. People who invest in both will make no returns and will just have to provide collateral and a fee for the privilege of getting nothing.

It's a stretch, but maybe it can be used to move up a Pirate tier, or enable other special Pirate offerings. For example someone who wants to risk only 1500 BTC with Pirate, can deposit 2000 BTC and buy 500 BTC face value worth of anti-pirate bonds. The increased interest rate just might be able to compensate for the costs.

The intended use case is for people who really want to be short on Pirate.

The "classical" antagonist to a pirate is still a ninja! (http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/pirates-vs-ninjas)

Alternatively you could be the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Trading_Company (see "Pirates of the Caribbean")... Wink
Not a fan, but will consider this.
1815  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 19, 2012, 04:31:57 PM
What do people think about renaming from Anti-Pirate to Antimatter? Less descriptive, but way cooler. Smiley

I was asking about pirate posing as someone else and buying these contracts, thus adding to his incentive to default.

I don't really think it'll happen, but given that the people buying these at least have some degree of uncertainty about him, it's conceivable that some people might be worried about it.
The people buying these bonds will want Pirate to have additional incentive to default.
1816  Economy / Marketplace / Re: [Idea Discussion] Hashing Power Market Making on: April 19, 2012, 03:51:20 PM
I don't think there is any planned activity to be done here. When there is enough trade volume in the bonds, market makers will emerge naturally to make profits. They can also do arbitrage by buying one bond and shorting another, thus equalizing the prices (taking into account, of course, any differences between the bonds).

What I would like to see eventually, as I alluded in the PureMining OP, is a dedicated hashrate exchange which revolves around margin trading and accurately distributing rewards. It will be operated by a registered company (for the sake of accountability and signaling commitment for indefinite operation) which does not issue bonds itself, but rather merely allow investors to trade among themselves (the total hashrate in the exchange is 0; in the beginning the only way to buy is if someone else sells on margin).

Such an exchange should be able to operate on a much larger scale, improving liquidity.
1817  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 19, 2012, 03:26:24 PM
wow, OP you are in my top 5 list of bitcoin people I respect. You just keep coming up with epic stuff. I'm in awe.
Come on, with all this respect, at the very least you could use my name...

One issue I encountered when I was trying to work through the details of writing CDSes was trust. How do you plan on preventing a pirateat40 sockpuppet (not saying he would create one, but just hypothetically) from buying insurance against himself, thus increasing his own incentive to default.
Is the failure mode Pirate offering such bonds, or buying them?

Assuming he plans to default, by buying bonds he is essentially encouraging me to effectively invest funds into his program. There's some profit to be made here but this doesn't seem catastrophical to me. I doubt anything can be done to prevent this.

If he's issuing bonds, I don't think he has any advantage over anyone else issuing bonds without intending to fulfill his obligations. Obviously whoever is issuing the bonds should be trustworthy.

One issue I encountered when I was trying to work through the details of writing CDSes was trust. How do you plan on preventing a pirateat40 sockpuppet (not saying he would create one, but just hypothetically) from buying insurance against himself, thus increasing his own incentive to default.
This is extremely difficult, if not impossible.
I'm rather sure OP is not Pirate. But if he is, wow, just wow.
My words exactly. (imagines self as Pirate) Wow.

Ask anyone who has met me in NYC or Prague (or in Israel for that matter) if I look anything like a pirate. Smiley
1818  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 19, 2012, 02:01:26 PM
The above is still a concept; I have not made a final decision whether I would like to offer these bonds. I am writing this to hear any thoughts about the idea and learn if anyone would be interested in buying such bonds.

A face value equal to half the maturity value was chosen mainly because this leads to an effective interest rate equal to the decay rate, which is intuitive. A greater maturity value can be used, which will allow making an investment with a lower collateral (essentially a higher margin ratio), but this will mean that the decay rate needs to be higher for a given effective interest rate, which is less robust.

The asset as described can be cleanly equated to a negative deposit against collateral. There is an alternative offering I am considering: Dropping the right to sell the bonds at face value (and replacing it with a compensation clause for a scenario that the BTCST program changes materially without defaulting). This allows more flexibility with the pricing, but makes it harder to compare directly with BTCST deposits, except for the fact that this is a bet on an imminent default. Opinions on the preferred variant are also welcome.

So this offering, if does happen, is an indirect statement that you believe pirateat40 will not default, right?
As far as I understand it, you are betting that it will take less than 10 weeks for pirate to default. (0.93^10 = 0,483982307)
If it takes longer, you would've been better off keeping your BTC - if it takes shorter, you make a profit.
Basically yes, but that's not accurate. You need to consider this with respect to a complete model of the default time probability distribution.

If I believe that Pirate has a probability of p to default, and that the time of the event in this case is exponentially distributed with mean m, then the expected amount I will have to pay per 1 BTC face value worth of bonds is

\[ 2p \int_0^{\infty} (1/m)\exp(-t/m)(1-r)^t dt = 2p / (1 - m\ln(1-r)) \]

Sorry, the "you" in my question was Meni Smiley I just wanted to clarify that I understood the motivations for this offering, as they seem to be different from Mircea's (not that I fully understand his, either).
Mircea's offering is basically just like PPT, but with some tweaked terms, some more precise description of terms, and where they are issued without being backed by actually depositing funds in BTCST (which is relevant only for the issuer, not for investors).

The main difference with Anti-Pirate is that they are exact opposites. PPT are positive, Anti-Pirate is negative. Buying Anti-Pirate can be compared to selling PPT, and vice versa. MPOE-PR has made a big deal in this thread out of the fact that these can be sold, borrowing as necessary.

The issuer of an asset always takes the opposite position of a buyer of an asset; if his desired position is neutral, he will have to seek an alternative means to take the same position as buying the bond. For mining bonds this is generally buying hardware; for PPT this is depositing funds in BTCST; etc.

The 2nd difference is that Anti-Pirate is perpetual while PPT has a set time. As the one who first mentioned the term "perpetuity" in the PureMining thread you can surely appreciate that, but anyway think what would it be like if instead of offering PureMining I would offer PureMining.March, PureMining.April, PureMining.May...

Finally, Anti-Pirate is an original (individually at least, globally until shown otherwise) methodology to provide perpetual negative bonds. Not that the idea is groundbreaking, just a correct application of some concepts to the issue at hand.

EDIT: I'm not sure you can deduce my personal motivation for (considering) offering the bond, since its place in my entire investment portfolio needs to be considered.

If Meni invests the proceeds from sale of anti-pirate bonds into pirate, he will come out ahead so long as default doesn't happen in the next 5 or 6 weeks.
I will not comment on whether I did or will invest funds into Pirate. I will say however that availability of funds is not really much of a problem as far as such investment is concerned, only default risk (and possibly, lack of storage demand).
1819  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 19, 2012, 01:21:34 PM
The above is still a concept; I have not made a final decision whether I would like to offer these bonds. I am writing this to hear any thoughts about the idea and learn if anyone would be interested in buying such bonds.

A face value equal to half the maturity value was chosen mainly because this leads to an effective interest rate equal to the decay rate, which is intuitive. A greater maturity value can be used, which will allow making an investment with a lower collateral (essentially a higher margin ratio), but this will mean that the decay rate needs to be higher for a given effective interest rate, which is less robust.

The asset as described can be cleanly equated to a negative deposit against collateral. There is an alternative offering I am considering: Dropping the right to sell the bonds at face value (and replacing it with a compensation clause for a scenario that the BTCST program changes materially without defaulting). This allows more flexibility with the pricing, but makes it harder to compare directly with BTCST deposits, except for the fact that this is a bet on an imminent default. Opinions on the preferred variant are also welcome.

So this offering, if does happen, is an indirect statement that you believe pirateat40 will not default, right?
Yes, offering this bond lengthens my Pirate position. But that doesn't mean I can't seek ways to hedge this risk.

Quote
Meni is correct that your offering is nothing like what he has stated in his OP.
We agree on that, in the sense that what he has stated in his OP is not an offer. However, it purports to (maybe, one day) be what the MPEx offer actually is, hence the contention.
Ok, now I know you're just trolling.
1820  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [CONCEPT] Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments on: April 19, 2012, 11:59:31 AM
What will your anti-pirate bond do in the event of a change in interest rates offered?
In the bond described in the OP, this will have no effect. If investors believe this is indicative of a different default risk (likely reduced), they can react by exercising the right to sell bonds, or to refrain from buying more bonds. And I will also take this into consideration when pricing any newly issued shares.
So, if, say, pirate decreases rates to 5% per week, the face value of these anti-bonds will still decay at 7% per week?
Yes. See also my edit to my previous answer.

The point is that the decay rate does not need to correspond to pirate's interest rate. In principle, the effective interest rate is (ry)/(1-y), where r is the decay rate and y is the ratio between the face value and the maturity value. In the no-sell variant, the "face value" does not need to be predefined and is de facto determined by the traded price. In this case the price can change to match whatever pirate's interest rate is.
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