I'd say one of the key reasons for bitcoin to get into five figures was China pissing off.
Their zero fee bucket shops ran the show back in the day despite the reality being no one there but their volume bots and a couple of spotty teens.
the chart makes it look that way. when the chinese government audited and later shut down the exchanges, the 2017 bubble took off in earnest. it may have been a coincidence though. an alternate theory is that the chinese government acted because of increasing speculation---speculation which ended up culminating in the run to $20k. i don't buy this theory that no one was trading in china. i literally traded on huobi, okcoin.cn, and okcoin.com for several years and i'm from the USA. so did virtually every trader i know from 2015-16. those were the exchanges to trade on at the time. just because they added fake volume doesn't mean they didn't still have more volume and liquidity than anywhere else. huobi and okcoin were the most liquid exchanges in the world at that time. the only people claiming otherwise are ignorant non-traders IMO. |
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They're a bunch of unhelpful gits keeping us in the dark. I remember ONE Chinese person from there popping into other areas attempting to explain things in the past and that was it.
Buck up, Chinese folks.
learn chinese and hit the 8btc forums. it ain't their job to explain everything to us ignorant white devils.  half joking, but seriously, that's where chinese bitcoiners actually post. i find that people on bitcointalk are pretty ignorant about the chinese bitcoin scene. you'll never get good info here. |
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what is this evidence of? i've never seen anyone using a bitcoin ATM. and hardly anyone spends bitcoins at merchants, especially brick-and-mortar merchants. bitcoin is clearly a speculative asset first and foremost. i know chinese traders and they don't give a fuck about bitcoin ATMs lol.
I've never seen anyone buying a diamond, thus there are no people buying diamonds. Then can you explain why the hell do we have 6000 atms? It's businesses wasting money? how does that prove that ATMs have a significant effect on the market? show us the numbers. the existence of ATMs in europe or the USA doesn't change the fact that they never mattered in china. btw, the chinese government just closed down 173 of crypto exchanges/platforms. so you can give up this charade that bitcoin completely disappeared from china when the government banned exchanges in 2017.
Where have I said that bitcoin disappeared from China? Don't go that way, don't put words in my mouth, I like strawberries:P China has as much influence in crypto right now as Nepal.
China means zero, there are no more exchanges there, there are no shops, no ATMs, no real usage, there is only mining and that also slowly dings down.
And furthermore, how can you even claim they have a big influence when they've already banned it?
you did say "there are no more exchanges there". actually there were hundreds before the government shut them down a few days ago. and comparing china to nepal is just ridiculous. i dunno if you just have an incredibly western-centric worldview or what, but that's just insane. if you actually knew your history, you'd know the fake volume wars began in 2015. look at any okcoin chart; its clear as day. yet china was the primary driver of the late 2013 bubble. any old school traders here will attest to that.
If you would know your history you would know that the fake volume war started in 2013: Chinese Bitcoin Exchange OKCoin Accused of Faking Trading DataDec 21, 2013 at 20:10 UTC pffff, give me a break. at that time, okcoin was doing the same volume as bitstamp. in 2016, they were doing 10 million BTC volume per day. there is no comparison. one article citing one source who looked at one 2-hour period is also not a basis to suggest (as you are) that all chinese volume in 2013 was fake. some of the top "western" exchanges like bitfinex and binance have been accused of faking volume too, but that's not a basis to say they have no effect on the market. anecdotally, i knew dozens of traders in late 2013. nobody even followed gox anymore because we all knew china ran the market. all the moves triggered there (and later on the chinese futures market). by 2015-16 most of us were trading on huobi and okcoin because of the superior liquidity. sure we all joked about the "chopper" and the "volumizer" but at the end of the day, slippage at bitstamp fucked you 10x worse than okcoin. there was undoubtedly lots of real liquidity, more so than any western exchanges. nothing you're saying proves that chinese speculation isn't a huge part of the market.
Right back at ya! you're the one claiming china has zero effect on the market. the burden is on you...... i'm trusting tether's blockchain issuance.
Seriously? that's not an actual argument...... are you suggesting that >4 billion USDT hasn't been issued? that it hasn't grown by 4000% in the last 1.5 years, during a time when chinese traders left mainland exchanges en masse? that 99% of spot trades in china are not using tether? what exactly are you rolling your eyes at? the circulating supply says nothing about their dollar reserves. i'm not commenting on that. but it does corroborate chainalysis' report that USDT has completely replaced the yuan for chinese speculators---which you are conveniently ignoring. the week before okcoin, btcc, and huobi froze withdrawals, there was 218 BTC in localbitcoins volume. a few weeks later, there was 7300 BTC in localbitcoins volume. more than a 3200% increase, and obviously a direct response to the situation at centralized chinese exchanges.
So, from 25k bitcoin an hour, the amount huobi was claiming to have on the day before.....the response was 1000 Btc a day! It sounds pretty realistic to me. i think we've established that the volume numbers were completely inflated by early 2017. (but again, that does nothing to prove your claim that china has zero effect on the market.....) this is also just localbitcoins, a western site. it offers a glimpse of the p2p market in china. i've been told that wechat and alipay are much more common venues for p2p trading in china but we have no data for that. |
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I think many of investors should holding there coins and hoping for the best because bitcoin is a fighter and somehow manage to came back at number 1. What you guys thinking about this?
that sounds like bagholder talk. i think everyone who wants to sell should sell. the market can't move up until we shake out the weak hands. let the bottom sellers capitulate! after 3 days of down trend and panic sells price reached a bottom where there were no more sells left so it reversed and now it is coming back up for about 2 days now.
so you're calling the bottom then? I dont see no crash. There was crash on 21th November when Chinese president explained again what he said few weeks ago. After that price of Bitcoin stays same. Today is totally same as on 22th November.
ok, but on october 26th the market was trading at ~$10500. we hit ~$6500 yesterday. so the market dropped 38% in a month---if you don't call that a "crash" fine, but it's a whole lot of blood! |
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why do you think that?
Because there are zero atms, zero business there, you can have a wallet full of bitcoins in the capital but you will have to eat leftover at McDonald's because there is no damn business accepting your coins. what is this evidence of? i've never seen anyone using a bitcoin ATM. and hardly anyone spends bitcoins at merchants, especially brick-and-mortar merchants. bitcoin is clearly a speculative asset first and foremost. i know chinese traders and they don't give a fuck about bitcoin ATMs lol. btw, the chinese government just closed down 173 of crypto exchanges/platforms. so you can give up this charade that bitcoin completely disappeared from china when the government banned exchanges in 2017. https://beincrypto.com/china-shuts-down-173-cryptocurrency-exchanges-and-token-issuing-platforms/Because from the first moment we had Chinese exchanges they were inflating their numbers by 1000x, because everything coming from there was fake information, fake numbers, fake everything. if you actually knew your history, you'd know the fake volume wars began in 2015. look at any okcoin chart; its clear as day. yet china was the primary driver of the late 2013 bubble. any old school traders here will attest to that. nothing you're saying proves that chinese speculation isn't a huge part of the market. the addition of fake volume activity since 2015 obfuscates the true data; it doesn't magically erase china from the earth.  no. i'm trusting chainalysis' report that 99% of chinese spot trading is done with tether, and i'm trusting tether's blockchain issuance. coinmarketcap's numbers are also inflating bitcoin volumes, not just tether. the point is that tether's massive inflation and trading volumes appear to be directly linked with china's prohibition of centralized CNY exchanges. we can also see the size of the p2p market ballooned after the major chinese exchanges froze withdrawals in early 2017, suggesting the market is much bigger than centralized exchanges: https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/CNYBaloooned to....4000 btc /week? yes, from 200 BTC/week. you're glossing over the fact that nobody traded p2p prior to the withdrawal freeze in early 2017. everybody used exchanges like okcoin because you could do instant e-wallet transfers in and out. the week before okcoin, btcc, and huobi froze withdrawals, there was 218 BTC in localbitcoins volume. a few weeks later, there was 7300 BTC in localbitcoins volume. more than a 3200% increase, and obviously a direct response to the situation at centralized chinese exchanges. the gradually declining localbitcoins volume to date coincides with the massive ballooning of tether's market cap from $100 million to over $4 billion. we now know that chinese speculators are a huge part of that. chainalysis says so, and so does the fact that tether is pushing even further into the chinese market by issuing a CNH stablecoin. |
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Looking at this weekly log chart of Bitcoin , you can CLEARLY see that BTC has printed five impulse waves up. The first wave began at it's creation, and the fifth wave ended at the high of 2017. Since then, BTC has clearly been in an ABC correction phase. I mentioned this as a possibility in the past, and here we can see that it really seems to be playing out. it would really help if you shared your chart, for visualization purposes. we also can't tell if your wave count follows the rules/guidelines, so we can't tell how likely it is to be correct. our resident EW analyst has a preferred count that puts us in primary wave 5: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53171045#newYou may be wondering why the regression arc is so important. In my view, it's the primary technical formation projecting that BTC will rise to the hundreds-of-thousands range. If it is broken and not recovered, BTC may never reach those lofty targets of common belief. why? in a wave 2 pullback, one would expect the trendline in wave 1 to be broken. |
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Also keep in mind that generally this time of the year was very bullish for Bitcoin historically. Besides 2018 and 2019, it was generally a very bullish month, hence the theory of people selling Crypto to buy presents just isn't true in this extend.
The only time in my opinion when Crypto selling could of had an effect was maybe the April 2018 time because people needed to sell alot of Crypto to pay huge capital tax gains from 2017 trading. This is probably why we had a relief rally in April 2018 shortly after tax date was due.
that's not how taxes work. anyone who has significant gains throughout the year but waits until the following april to pay taxes will face big penalties. there are 4 tax payment deadlines throughout the year. april 15th is just one of them. https://www.irs.gov/faqs/estimated-taxi don't believe in any of these "bitcoin always rises in x month and falls in y month" theories. let's see how that data looks in 100 years.  |
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We know how big china's influence in crypto, but the fact that they have already banning crypto years back, it should not affect much now if they made an announcement again.
No, you can't know something that doesn't exist! China has as much influence in crypto right now as Nepal. What is has, it has a bunch of panicking morons who at every piece of garbage half-line coming of China are screaming like some mad geese and simply won't shut up no matter how many arguments are hammered on their heads. China means zero, there are no more exchanges there, there are no shops, no ATMs, no real usage, there is only mining and that also slowly dings down. So, for god's sake stop this madness. why do you think that? the exchange ban just sent chinese exchanges and traders offshore. yuan-denominated trading may be way down since then, but that's all. according to chainalysis, tether is used in 99% of bitcoin spot trades in china. this year, tether surpassed bitcoin in trading volumes: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/tether-not-bitcoin-likely-the-world-s-most-used-cryptocurrencyand research now shows that china is responsible for the majority of global tether volumes: https://cointelegraph.com/news/research-china-leads-world-in-tether-trading-volumes-in-2019we can also see the size of the p2p market ballooned after the major chinese exchanges froze withdrawals in early 2017, suggesting the market is much bigger than centralized exchanges: https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/CNYAnd furthermore, how can you even claim they have a big influence when they've already banned it? they never banned bitcoin usage, p2p trading, bitcoin mining, mining manufacturing. all they banned was domestic ICOs and centralized exchanges. the ICO market is dead anyway and the exchanges all moved offshore. nothing fundamentally changed---china is still a huge part of the bitcoin market. |
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awesome, i'm stoked! i've been railing at tradingview's admin the last couple years for not allowing bitcoin payments for their black friday sales. i've never been able to get the discounted prices because i always pay with BTC. now i see they've finally added an option to pay via coinbase commerce! too bad the market's in the shitter. oh well, at 50% off i can afford to spend some coins on a pro+ account. |
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I read with 1 BTC deposit, I will be able to trade 100BTC worth of contracts. 100x leverage means your position will be force liquidated if the market moves < 1% against you. prepare to lose your 1 bitcoin! Also, it is mentioned that there is no expiry for their contracts. that's for perpetual swap contracts. they also offer traditional futures contracts. Does it mean I will be able to hold if my position is even at losses? How exactly it works? no matter what instrument you are trading, your position value must remain above your maintenance margin, otherwise you will be liquidated: |
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US has strict laws related to crypto usage so this applies to all the exchange not only for Binance so the topic title is kind of misleading.
Title changed  funny and sorta true, but there are definitely nuances. binance.us requiring SSN for a $5k daily withdrawal limit is pretty appalling---especially when you consider how shitty their liquidity is. if they allowed basic verification with no SSN, i'd actually use them. gemini is also over the top with their requirements---you can't even create an account without SSN and state ID. kraken and coinbase still win out in this department. |
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Previously I could see the total number of unconfirmed transactions in the blockchain.info now how I understand I can't. The search returned no results. Where can I see the total number of unconfirmed transactions of BTC now?
it's a useless metric anyway. take this example: binance recently consolidated dust from tether transactions, broadcasting ~80k transactions at 1 satoshi/byte. that would make it seem like the mempool was really full if all you looked at was total unconfirmed transactions. in actuality, you only needed to bump your fee to 2 sat/byte to get quick confirmation. that's why you should look at fee rates in the mempool, not just number of transactions. if you scroll down to the 3rd chart on this page, it shows you everything you need to know when choosing a fee rate: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#0,8h |
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It's not a bad thing at all--there are plenty of people who just want to buy bitcoin as an investment and keep track of everything in order to pay taxes and so forth. In those cases, they're not likely to care about KYC procedures. You can't buy stocks without going through a broker, and all of them require KYC, as do banks if you want so much as a checking account. It's not a big deal IMO. except that binance is a dodgy crypto exchange known for flouting regulations. how do we even know they comply with data protection laws? they hop from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. their "headquarters" in malta is basically a front and i suspect it won't be there much longer. they've already been hacked for customer KYC data, which isn't a strong vote of confidence. You could ask the same question about Coinbase, by the way. They've always required KYC documents as far as I know, and nobody has really complained about that. coinbase gives me 10x the daily withdrawal limit without requiring SSN or proof of address. it also has superior liquidity. the choice is obvious for me, even with binance having significantly cheaper commissions. |
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No matter what centralized exchange you'll use, KYC is inevitable. It makes more sense to use dex or do P2P transactions locally if you don't want to leave any trail of crypto transactions on your ID.
not true for altcoin or derivatives trading. there are still plenty of centralized platforms to hedge USD value or margin trade without KYC, though they are gradually becoming fewer in numbers. bitmex, deribit, kumex, kucoin, binance.com, etc are still holding it down for us unverified renegades! it's only fiat processing that generally mandates KYC. even in that case, there are some options to get around it like this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5189619.msg52634869#msg52634869 |
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Rule 1. Never sell it for less than what you paid for it.
Rule 2. Never sell it to anyone who might sell it for less than what they paid for it. the "bitcoin club" sounds like some sort of ponzi scheme.  people shouldn't feel forced to be bagholders. if bitcoin is in a firm downtrend, it makes sense to sell some---if only to accumulate more for cheaper. i love me some cheap coins! Bitcoin is always sold first by the miner at a price that he determines to be necessary for him to earn an acceptable profit. The next owner needs to do the same, and so on for the price to rise. that's just one possible way for price to rise. more generally, we just need more buyers than sellers. let the weak hands sell now. strong hands are buying up the supply at these levels. |
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I do not get what all the excitement is about binance US - if KYC is required and it is fully compliant with the US government, then a permanent record of all US users is being created, which the government can force binance to turn over in the future. We know that the government wins all legal cases. All the news/statements from the Trump administration on crypto has been negative. The government wants to control the money supply and has made many statements about it. We don't know what will happen to crypto legislation and legality in the future. They can arbitrarily increase taxes at any time and retroactively enforce it. And if crypto falls out of favor with the government (especially if it becomes popular), they can use the user data to pressure law-abiding citizens. Doesn't it make more sense for US citizens to use exchanges outside of the US?
they are between a rock and a hard place. the SEC, FINCEN, and others were breathing down their neck. they knew they couldn't get away with allowing unverified american accounts for much longer. so they allowed them for as long as possible and then went legit. i don't blame them. i don't have much incentive to use their exchange though. giving my SSN to binance? no thanks....... |
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The thing I don't like about these institutional products is that the spot price is going to respect their trading hours in the sense that we will get to fill the gaps that occur whenever there is a large move in the weekend for example.
i don't think it has anything to do with respecting regulated exchange trading hours. it's just how "mature" markets filled with institutional traders act. gaps---particularly exhaustion gaps---often get filled. bitcoin doesn't have gaps because it trades 24/7 but it does sometimes move extremely fast on relatively low volume. these low volume areas often get filled for the same reasons gaps do. i've been finding as time goes on, the BTC market increasingly looks like old school markets. the endless whipsaws, all the fading into irrational exuberance. bitcoin is just growing up IMO. |
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Coinbase Pro has been hiking their fees which is making it difficult for retail investors to implement successful trading strategies which frequently execute orders.
Do you think the Coinbase Pro fees are too high? I wrote an article on the topic, but I would love to hear what you think.
it's still fine for swing trading. when you're trying to ride 20% or 50% moves, then fees being 0.25% or 0.35% higher than before isn't a big deal. i could see it hurting scalpers a lot though. when a bull market rears its head again and i go back to day trading, i probably won't be at coinbase. i've been looking at kraken as an alternative. |
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China FUD in 2019. Great.
there's more to come. the PBOC issued a statement suggesting they will "further regulate" offshore exchanges that serve chinese residents. https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1197809485726638083the first thing that pops into my head when i see that is tether, given their huge push into the chinese market over the past year: imagine bitcoin's two greatest sources of FUD---china and tether---joining forces. this could be the most explosive FUD of all time in the making! |
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