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Author Topic: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)  (Read 3645 times)
figmentofmyass
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November 01, 2019, 10:58:32 PM
 #141

Bullish Scenario (Preferred) using GBTC...



any thoughts on the expected magnitude of wave (iii)?

looking at bitstamp---and based on the current wave (ii) low which could change---a 1.618 extension would mean an approximate retest of the yearly highs in the upper $13000s. does that sound about right, or do you have a different target in mind?

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November 02, 2019, 12:01:02 AM
Merited by figmentofmyass (1)
 #142

Bullish Scenario (Preferred) using GBTC...



any thoughts on the expected magnitude of wave (iii)?

looking at bitstamp---and based on the current wave (ii) low which could change---a 1.618 extension would mean an approximate retest of the yearly highs in the upper $13000s. does that sound about right, or do you have a different target in mind?

Assuming the current pullback for MINUTE [ ii ] wave ends around $8,460 BITSTAMP (which is a Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of MINUTE [ i ] wave), then a typical 1.618% extension would be expected for MINUTE [ iii ] wave —barring any subdivisions and extensions. This would provide an approximate target of $12,470 BITSTAMP —which is also around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE ( 2 ) decline from 26-JUN to 23-OCT.

However, since MINUTE [ i ] was the third highest daily gain in Bitcoin history, subsequent waves MINUTE [ iii ] and MINUTE [ iv ] and MINUTE [ v ] could be consecutively smaller to form an overall Leading Diagonal...


 
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November 02, 2019, 06:38:52 AM
 #143

Assuming the current pullback for MINUTE [ ii ] wave ends around $8,460 BITSTAMP (which is a Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of MINUTE [ i ] wave), then a typical 1.618% extension would be expected for MINUTE [ iii ] wave —barring any subdivisions and extensions. This would provide an approximate target of $12,470 BITSTAMP —which is also around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE ( 2 ) decline from 26-JUN to 23-OCT.

However, since MINUTE [ i ] was the third highest daily gain in Bitcoin history, subsequent waves MINUTE [ iii ] and MINUTE [ iv ] and MINUTE [ v ] could be consecutively smaller to form an overall Leading Diagonal...



thank you, very insightful. the magnitude of wave [ i ] was so large that i wasn't sure how to approach sub-wave proportions. i had forgotten all about the possibility of a leading diagonal!

my elliott wave is a bit rusty. Smiley

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November 08, 2019, 09:26:24 PM
 #144

Hi, I'm a big fan of Elliott waves and I just wonder if the last crash from 19800$ to 3180$ was wave 2 ABC correction of wave one that started in 23 May 2016 and peaked in 2017 December. Now according to my theory the wave 3 has already started in 17 December 2018 and will peak at around 300k mid 2021. I hope Elliott waves experts here have a look at my opinion.
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November 08, 2019, 10:00:05 PM
 #145

Hi, I'm a big fan of Elliott waves and I just wonder if the last crash from 19800$ to 3180$ was wave 2 ABC correction of wave one that started in 23 May 2016 and peaked in 2017 December. Now according to my theory the wave 3 has already started in 17 December 2018 and will peak at around 300k mid 2021. I hope Elliott waves experts here have a look at my opinion.

It's difficult to comment without seeing your wave count. Could you show us a chart?

From the December 2018 low, the OP's preferred count puts us in a Primary Wave 5, not Wave 3. See here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531

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November 09, 2019, 08:56:39 AM
Merited by Febo (1)
 #146

Hi, I'm a big fan of Elliott waves and I just wonder if the last crash from 19800$ to 3180$ was wave 2 ABC correction of wave one that started in 23 May 2016 and peaked in 2017 December. Now according to my theory the wave 3 has already started in 17 December 2018 and will peak at around 300k mid 2021. I hope Elliott waves experts here have a look at my opinion.

It's difficult to comment without seeing your wave count. Could you show us a chart?

From the December 2018 low, the OP's preferred count puts us in a Primary Wave 5, not Wave 3. See here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531

Ok this is my chart. I counted since btc was 1$ then 5 waves ended with their ABC correction and consolidation mid 2016

https://i.ibb.co/FmZ9rw6/Screenshot-20191109-094930.png
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November 09, 2019, 08:21:04 PM
 #147

Ok this is my chart. I counted since btc was 1$ then 5 waves ended with their ABC correction and consolidation mid 2016

https://i.ibb.co/FmZ9rw6/Screenshot-20191109-094930.png

Thank you for your chart. Personally, do not agree with your interpretation of Elliott Wave.

—From 2010 to 2017, there have been 3 primary trends in Bitcoin: 2 rising, 1 declining.
—From 2010 to 2019, there have been 5 primary trends in Bitcoin: 3 rising, 2 declining.

The declines are apparent on any momentum indicator such as the RSI, being oversold on a weekly timeframe, with sub 30 readings...

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November 09, 2019, 09:39:11 PM
 #148

Ok this is my chart. I counted since btc was 1$ then 5 waves ended with their ABC correction and consolidation mid 2016

https://i.ibb.co/FmZ9rw6/Screenshot-20191109-094930.png

Thank you for your chart. Personally, do not agree with your interpretation of Elliott Wave.

—From 2010 to 2017, there have been 3 primary trends in Bitcoin: 2 rising, 1 declining.
—From 2010 to 2019, there have been 5 primary trends in Bitcoin: 3 rising, 2 declining.

The declines are apparent on any momentum indicator such as the RSI, being oversold on a weekly timeframe, with sub 30 readings...



Thank you I appreciate your efforts to explain the cycles Bitcoin went through the whole decade.
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November 13, 2019, 02:14:41 PM
 #149

People who buy into BTC now, a 10 year old technology (when was the last time you invested heavily into 56k modems? must be aware that this can be a decade long falling knife. Just be aware that this can happen, I remember when BTC was $430 in April of 2016, it was not long ago, and nothing has changed fundamentally since then quite the contrary, as competition is catching up.


Facebook is 10 year old, if not more. Google is even older than facebook. Apple and Microsoft are from the 80s.
And still people invest in these companies, they have a huge market. And the improvements in their products can be compared to improvements in bitcoin code.
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November 15, 2019, 12:55:03 PM
Last edit: November 15, 2019, 01:09:41 PM by xxxx123abcxxxx
 #150

With price/RSI positive divergence on the 4-hr timeframe, and a potential completed waveset; it appears the decline from the 26-OCT-2019 spike high may have concluded, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% in size.

At this juncture, a move beyond 8800 BITSTAMP may signal the resumption of the bull market; however, a move below 8490 BITSTAMP would suggest the decline is subdividing and extending to lower prices.

Code:
BITSTAMP support zones:  
8460, 7950, 7640, 7230, 5425, 4350

Code:
BITSTAMP resistance zones:
8850, 9810, 10590, 11365, 12470, 13130, 16260, 17930





As a side note, the stockmarket may be gearing for a spectacular bull market breakout, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average can remain above 25,750 for the remainder of the year...



Projections are indicative of price & structure, not time.
 
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November 15, 2019, 01:28:35 PM
 #151

Ok this is my chart. I counted since btc was 1$ then 5 waves ended with their ABC correction and consolidation mid 2016

https://i.ibb.co/FmZ9rw6/Screenshot-20191109-094930.png

Thank you for your chart. Personally, do not agree with your interpretation of Elliott Wave.

—From 2010 to 2017, there have been 3 primary trends in Bitcoin: 2 rising, 1 declining.
—From 2010 to 2019, there have been 5 primary trends in Bitcoin: 3 rising, 2 declining.

The declines are apparent on any momentum indicator such as the RSI, being oversold on a weekly timeframe, with sub 30 readings...



Is it correct, that according to your wave count wave5 would bring us to around ~$123k ?

 
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November 15, 2019, 02:28:25 PM
 #152

Is it correct, that according to your wave count wave5 would bring us to around ~$123k ?

Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.

From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 or 2.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 and $35,127 and $54,892, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:

Code:
@22913: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618
@54892: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 2.618

As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.

Let's take it one wave at a time!  Wink
 
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November 15, 2019, 04:45:12 PM
 #153

Why do you use the BLX index?
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November 15, 2019, 06:59:10 PM
 #154

Why do you use the BLX index?
Most complete dataset available on TradingView.
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November 17, 2019, 08:59:00 PM
 #155

There is a criterion that I have to use Elliot waves, and it is that according to my analysis it works perfectly for the trend, be it bullish or bearish, we are currently starting the bullish trend, this volatility that now occurs is normal, however I want to show how I used Elliot waves in the bullish and bearish trend in my analysis:



The evidence in the purple arrows, however the analysis I do a few days, it is easier to react in the medium term for me than in the short term as there are many who are very good at doing so.

However, I have read a lot about Elliot and it is a powerful tool in the technical analysis, here my analysis is according to Wyckoff, and the tendency I do it with Elliot, I have also found it very informative utility of MA (28) and MA (14) , although I have not yet put Elliot in the current trend.

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|ROULETTE
MINES
TOWERS
DICE
CRASH
──── ─── ─
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November 19, 2019, 12:32:13 AM
Last edit: November 19, 2019, 02:23:09 AM by MarquiseMuseum
 #156

People who buy into BTC now, a 10 year old technology (when was the last time you invested heavily into 56k modems? must be aware that this can be a decade long falling knife. Just be aware that this can happen, I remember when BTC was $430 in April of 2016, it was not long ago, and nothing has changed fundamentally since then quite the contrary, as competition is catching up.


Facebook is 10 year old, if not more. Google is even older than facebook. Apple and Microsoft are from the 80s.
And still people invest in these companies, they have a huge market. And the improvements in their products can be compared to improvements in bitcoin code.


1. All of these companies you mention are monopolies
2. Bitcoins userbase is 1/100 or less than these companies, yet its market cap is only 1/5, somewhere there is a valuation anomaly, either in fortune 500, or BTC. I think, the latter
3. Facebook had myspace for competition, Google had netscape, Microsoft Xerox. In your examples there is also the case of the opposite loser to the success story and in fact in each example, the loser is first to market tech
4. The crypto space has dozens of top talent competitor teams developing in spaces that bitcoin was not designed for such as Index and enterprise tokens which is probably the only way global market cap can grow into trillions.
5. There is an establishment space that is completely unemerged with centralized enterprise migration that will never use Bitcoin as a primary solution because there is no utility or added value or incentive to do so when much better custom options exist for branding and scalability.
6. It is probably no regulatory of legal recourse to depart from fiat hegemony either because fortune 500 will be forced to use government solutions such as Nasdaq crypto dollars.
7. There is every indication that top 1% of wealth and institutional money welcomes complete regulation of this space before onramping even to the point of totalitarianism. This wealth is benefitting from a century or even millenia old financial status quo so there is zero incentive to go with BTC, even if the establishment successfully hedged BTC just in case it did succeed in any form that it may assume, which it did not and that was concluded many years ago.

There is a privacy crypto ecosystem that can capture a very small share of global wealth and it is possible that governments will pump this inorder to gain economic dominance before present fringe userbase grows into moderately mainstream userbase. It may even be that government itself will be the catalyst for this growth in privacy space, touted as liberal and fully decentralized options. So it will become a sock puppet sandbox like Tor and it may even be already that NSA has zero day access to all windows users in the world, we simply don't know how deep that rabbit hole really goes. If that is the case, then forget anonymity and decentralization as developers would have to rebuild the world to get there.

Private crypto - the coins that are on CMC (which in 5 years will be only 1% of blockchain space after it is fully centralized and cloned to supercede stock indexes), they have a small chance to capture 1-10% of $20 trillion global retail market divided on a handful of success stories mainly waves, stellar, vechain. This is because they were developed with this specific format in mind.

Other than this, private sector has no real growth potential until AGI backed distributed ledger but all assets associated with AGI development is tightly controlled by government and most likely something so fundamental in nature will only emerge under strict and well funded conditions similar to Manhattan project.

Fiat collapse will not accelerate private crypto market because when it is permitted to take place, the world will be since long migrated to proprietary solutions.

Global debt is also irrelevant because creditors will accept repayment in equivalent currency. 2020's is not weimar 1920's, and if it is then there is a big problem later on.

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November 24, 2019, 11:01:35 PM
Last edit: November 24, 2019, 11:48:48 PM by xxxx123abcxxxx
Merited by exstasie (3), josegines (1)
 #157

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Thanksgiving Update
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/e16ezw/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_thanksgiving/

From an Elliott Wave perspective, two scenarios are under consideration at this inflection point: a continuing Bull Scenario or a Bear Scenario.

In either scenario, the Elliott Wave model proposes a five wave structure, consisting of: three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:

Code:
Wave-1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by;
Wave-2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by;
Wave-3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by;
Wave-4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by;
Wave-5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-?



The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years. Each PRIMARY degree wave is constituted of five INTERMEDIATE degree waves; and in turn, so forth into smaller degree fractals.

The Bull Scenario suggests Wave-5 is still underway, with subdividing and extending waves headed for new all-time highs.

The Bear Scenario suggests Wave-5 completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure, and a bear market is underway.



Bull Scenario

The bullish scenario suggests a continuing bull market is underway. PRIMARY[5] wave started from the 06-FEB-2019 low, and has completed its first parabolic uptrend labelled as INTERMEDIATE(1) wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.



INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback started at the 26-JUN-2019 high, and retraced an almost Fibonacci 61.8% thus far of the 2019 bull market, into the 23-OCT-2019 low.

This 4-month decline had initially appeared to have completed an INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback when the market suddenly spiked and surged over 40% within a day —attributed to news of Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly stating China should “seize the opportunity” offered by blockchain. The surge was the third largest 24-hour price gain in Bitcoin's history.

However, since the spike high on 26-OCT-2019, the market has steadily sold-off and now returned back to the 23-OCT-2019 low; and hence, erasing the entire late OCT surge. The surge is now being considered as a B-wave as part of an ongoing INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback. In hindsight, it ought to have been obvious this Thanksgiving Turkey isn’t cooked yet:

“B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often ‘unconfirmed’ by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, ‘There is something wrong with this market,’ chances are it's a B wave.” —Elliott Wave Principle Key to Market Behavior; A.J. Frost, Robert Prechter.

From the B-wave high set on 26-OCT-2019, C-wave of INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has been underway and is expected to conclude at the following Fibonacci support zones, using BITSTAMP:

Code:
@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [AVG]
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [MAX]
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?]

In addition to the aforementioned support zones, the following additional midway Fibonacci zones can be sought as support for this current INTERMEDIATE(2) decline, using BITSTAMP:

Code:
@7055: Wave-C = Wave-A * 0.500
@6280: Wave-C = Wave-A * 0.618
@5170: Wave-C = Wave-A * 0.786

Summary of support zones, using BITSTAMP:
7230, 7055, 6280, 5425, 5170, 4350

At time of writing, price is currently meandering between the first two aforementioned support levels.

Once INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has completed, a rising INTERMEDIATE(3) is expected to commence to resume the bull market. Such a wave is expected to unfold parabolically in nature, and at a minimum, meet or exceed the PRIMARY[3] high set on 17-DEC-2017. In both price and time, this wave is expected to be the longest of the PRIMARY[5] bull market.

Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.

From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 or 2.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 or $35,127 or $54,892, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:

Code:
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618
@54892: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 2.618



As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.



Bear Scenario

The bear market scenario suggests the 2019 bull market was a short-lived affair, and PRIMARY[5] terminated as a failed-fifth truncated wave.

PRIMARY[5] started from the 15-DEC-2018 low and completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high. A Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of this uptrend is at 4350 BITSTAMP —a decline to this point ought to signal the goose is cooked and market has favoured to deflate.



In this scenario, five completed PRIMARY degree waves have completed a CYCLE I wave structure. And now, a CYCLE II wave bear market pullback is underway and headed to break below the 2018 low.



The wider cryptocurrency market in terms of the Altcoins currently appear to support the outlook of a bear market. So far in 2019, the price structure of majority Altcoins has seemingly unfolded in corrective A-B-C advancing waves, instead of impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 waves. This suggests the majority of Altcoins may be set to break their respective 2018 lows unless an intervention can be coordinated…





Analysis is purely speculative, and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time. Happy Thanksgiving!
 
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November 27, 2019, 08:16:01 PM
Last edit: November 27, 2019, 09:27:18 PM by xxxx123abcxxxx
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #158



With price/RSI positive divergence on the 4-hr timeframe, the Bitcoin markets have once more, another opportunity to resume the bull market.

INTERMEDIATE(1) wave completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high, followed by a 5-month decline retracing just over a Fibonacci 61.8% for INTERMEDIATE(2) wave into the 25-NOV-2019 low.

INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline consisted of three MINOR degree waves: A-B-C. Wave-B was a short-lived 24-hr spike surging +40% into the high of 26-OCT-2019. Wave-C decline has been underway since, and appears to have completed into the 25-NOV-2019 low. In regards to wave relationships, most exchanges exhibited the following Fibonacci relationship:

Code:
Wave-C = Wave-A * 0.618


.
—COINBASE came within $47 of the aforementioned relationship (projection: 6478, actual: 6526).

—BITSTAMP came within $235 of the aforementioned relationship (projection: 6280, actual: 6515).

For the bull market to resume, price is now required to advance in impulsive i-ii-iii-iv-v waves, and crucially remain above the 27-NOV-2019 low (i.e. 6850 BITSTAMP). A move below the 27-NOV-2019 low would set-up the premise for an extended decline lower.



Code:
BITSTAMP support zones:
7230, 7055, 6280, 5425, 5170, 4350

BITSTAMP resistance zones:
8250, 9330, 10200, 11065, 12300, 13040
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December 05, 2019, 01:44:41 AM
Last edit: December 05, 2019, 02:27:36 AM by xxxx123abcxxxx
 #159



Three Strikes, And You're Out !

At this juncture as of 05-DEC-2019, two bullish scenarios are under consideration using the Elliott Wave theory; using COINBASE pricing:

1. INTERMEDIATE(1) wave advanced and completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high; and, INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline completed at the 25-NOV-2019 low; and, now INTERMEDIATE(3) wave advance is underway. A rise beyond the 29-NOV-2019 high ought to confirm this scenario.

2. INTERMEDIATE(1) wave advanced and completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high; and, INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline is still in progress. A decline below the 27-NOV-2019 low ought to confirm this scenario is underway, and yet to complete at either of following three Fibonacci support zones...

Minor support zones...

Code:
STRIKE #1:
    @6478: MINOR C = MINOR A * 0.618
    @6336: MINUTE [c] = MINUTE [a] * 0.382
    @6407: AVG

STRIKE #2:
    @5862: MINUTE [c] = MINUTE [a] * 0.050

STRIKE #3:
    @5431: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019
    @5389: MINUTE [c] = MINUTE [a] * 0.618
    @5374: MINOR C = MINOR A * 0.786
    @5398: AVG

Major support zones...

Code:
@5431: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE(1) wave from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019.
@4358: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE(1) wave from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?]


  
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December 05, 2019, 03:16:48 AM
 #160

I believe we are indeed very close to the end of the correction.  BTC has to breach midpoint of 21 day Bollinger at 7500 aprox for a wave 4 and close below 6515 for a wave 5 ~ 6300.  GBTC closes above 9.96 followed by a two week drop to a day morning star around 8.10 for an equivalent buy.  GBTC is not confirming upward shot with today's bearish activity, however.
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