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I personally believe bitcoin will become preferred over gold as a means to "store wealth" in the next 10 years or less. Bitcoin will first be used as a means of storing wealth before it will be used as a means of buying and selling goods and services in "modernized" culture. The other billions of people who are not banked will begin to use bitcoin as a means of storing wealth AND commerce before "modernized" (banked) cultures adopt it as a currency.
When the blocks halve in July or August of 2016, we will see the price of bitcoin doubling over a month period of time. The market will have much less downward pressure because only half the coin we have dumped on the exchanges today will be dumped each day when the blocks halve. When the price goes up considerably, less bitcoin will be dumped by miners to pay for power [Reducing downward pressure]. Also, the number of transactions keep increasing significantly month after month. The majority of those transactions are from trading bitcoin [Converting fiat into bitcoin and bitcoin back to fiat].
We will have many more people involved in trading bitcoin a year from now [When the blocks halve] than what we have trading on the exchanges today. This will create an exponential increase in upward pressure when the blocks are halved as well. So, once the blocks halve, we can expect a rather large rally going forward to buy [What is presumed to be] relatively cheap bitcoin. I can see this realization coming to the minds of many just before the blocks halve and create somewhat of a race to buy bitcoin (raising the price). We can expect a pretty big jump in price of bitcoin just before the blocks halve in my opinion.
If your argument against this is it did not happen the previous time the blocks halved. I can honestly say there is a BIG difference going from 25 to 12.5 than it is from 50 to 25. MUCH LESS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON THE EXCHANGES WHILE HAVING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN NUMBER OF PEOPLE PARTICIPATING IN TRADING ON EXCHANGES AND THE FACT THAT WE HAVE MORE EXCHANGES.
Price predictions by month for bitcoin beginning March 31, 2016 for the race leading up to the blocks halving:
March 31/2016: $ 330.00
April 30/2016: $ 370.00
May 31/2016: $ 440.00
June 30/2016: $ 500.00
July 31/2016: $ 570.00
August 31/2016: $ 630.00
September 30/2016: $ 700.00
This next block halving will play a major roll in our next big rally. However, we can expect more caution from investors this time compared to the previous rally to $1,200.00 in December of 2013. This is why I don't have the price rising up to $1,200.00 or more over a 2 month period like the previous rally to $1200.
We will have more user friendly apps and technologies using the blockchain beginning to appear to the market by this time. The headlines in the news will begin get more would be investors interested in joining the rally so they don't miss out. This news of the rally and news of technologies using the blockchain will be all over the headlines and begin to give bitcoin the push it needs to slowly become more mainstream.
This news will create the biggest rally yet [In my opinion] for bitcoin. It's a rally that will last for many years to come. Why? because all of the downward pressure will be erased overnight when the blocks halve and the number of traders in the bitcoin exchanges will have more than doubled.
Over the next 3 years [After the blocks halve] we will have more user friendly apps and blockchain technologies will begin to be used in the financial sector. The headlines in the news about bitcoin and the blockchain will be more prevalent [Encouraging more investors and traders to come into the fold]. We could see the price of bitcoin rise exponentially by the next block halving in 2020. Why? Even less downward pressure from bitcoin being dumped on the market. New available bitcoin will not be as available anymore because it's worth much more and less of it is being dumped on the market by the miners.
My predictions on the price of bitcoin by year after the blocks halve:
August 2016: $ 630.00
August 2017: $ 1,200.00
August 2018: $ 1,800.00
August 2019: $ 2,800.00
August 2020: $ 4,000.00
August 2021: $ 5,800.00
August 2022: $ 7,500.00
August 2023: $ 12,000.00
August 2024: $ 15,500.00
August 2025: $ 19,000.00
All of these price marks for each year were keeping other things in mind. Such as world economy; scarcity of bitcoin [Only so many made; still tens of thousands of metric tons of gold yet to be mined]; popularity of the blockchain growing year after year; popularity of bitcoin growing year after year; the ease of use of apps designed for the blockchain year after year; more retailers accepting bitcoin year after year; more people in "unbanked" parts of the world using bitcoin in growing numbers year after year.
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There is an ongoing discussion to increase the block size limit.
To my understanding the decision to use lager block sizes has
to be made by the miners. So what is the oppinion of the miners
at shush's pool and of the pool operator ?
If this topic is discussed somethere else and I missed it please
direct me to that post.
A
If you wish to try to get that answer from Slush, it needs to be on FaceBook. |
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It seems quite odd to me when I look at the hash rate on Slush's Pool and BTCGuild, the hash rate has gone down considerably. However, if you look at the overall network hash rate, it has gone up considerably. Any thoughts?
Home miners continuing to leave while giant farms (especially in China) continue to come online. Now that it's getting hot in the northern hemisphere (which is where most home miners are located), it's becoming even more of a loss to keep miners running due to the extra cooling needed if you have them in your home. They also perform worse at higher ambient temperatures, so home miners are literally just losing some of their hashrate in the warmer weather. EDIT: Also the fact that there's not a single pool outside of China that even has 5% of the network anymore makes it a self-fulfilling prophecy that the pools continue to shrink because people can't stand variance. Sounds logical... Thanks! |
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My surprise today! Any help from Bitmain?  What happened? If you don't mind me asking? I have several S4's myself. Just curious what you may have found to be the culprit? |
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It seems quite odd to me when I look at the hash rate on Slush's Pool and BTCGuild, the hash rate has gone down considerably. However, if you look at the overall network hash rate, it has gone up considerably. Any thoughts?
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Why would bitcoin surpass gold?  Give it time. Even if bitcoin is here to stay, Rome wasn't built in a day. But hey, I'm not one to believe that BTC is about to become world reserve currency, or some craziness like that, either. people like to fantasize about bitcoin taking over fiat currency and gold. it's only not going to happen. what's wrong with bitcoin being an alternative instead of saying it will take over this and that. +1 A scarce digital alternative asset class. Very possible and i don't mind this either. Question is, would its value escalate wildly if its use as an alternative became mainstream? that's the point, it won't raise for nothing, if it would remain only a mere alternative, and maybe a niche alternative, well it depend how big you can see this alternative going mainstream and being alternative are two things that can live together then again, what do people consider mainstream bitcoin usage? world wide accepted by merchants? being able to have a bitcoin balance in your bank account and thus spending it as easily as fiat currency? Mainstream usage is when most people use it, like at least 5/10 transactions being done in BTC. It would need to reach a popularity level within the culture. When a mainstream comedian like Jimmy Kimmel drops a joke about Bitcoin and everyone gets it, then it will be mainstream. You may be thinking of only "Western" culture. What about other cultures of those with no access to banking? They are slowly having infrastructure for cellular networks constructed in unbanked areas of the world. It's only a matter of time before what we say 5/10 transactions is the norm; where 8/10 transactions will be the norm for those who are presently unbanked. So, lets not forget them. |
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Why would bitcoin surpass gold? Give it time. Even if bitcoin is here to stay, Rome wasn't built in a day. But hey, I'm not one to believe that BTC is about to become world reserve currency, or some craziness like that, either. people like to fantasize about bitcoin taking over fiat currency and gold. it's only not going to happen. what's wrong with bitcoin being an alternative instead of saying it will take over this and that. +1 A scarce digital alternative asset class. Very possible and i don't mind this either. Question is, would its value escalate wildly if its use as an alternative became mainstream? that's the point, it won't raise for nothing, if it would remain only a mere alternative, and maybe a niche alternative, well it depend how big you can see this alternative going mainstream and being alternative are two things that can live together then again, what do people consider mainstream bitcoin usage? world wide accepted by merchants? being able to have a bitcoin balance in your bank account and thus spending it as easily as fiat currency? What? YOU are the bank... Exchanges are the middle man between the banks and bitcoin. If the banks stop doing business with exchanges, exchanges will begin banking. I bet you coinbase would. Does this mean the bank would hold your coin for you? I sure as hell hope not. I would hold it yourself. |
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The only thing more profitable than using your ASIC's to mine bitcoins is ...
working at mc'donalds ? lol  |
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Can we sell our hashrate at any time on genesis?? They said lifetime but can we sell if we need the BTC ??
I would hope so. I just calculated what the payback would be at their lowest $0.42/Gh offer. Assuming difficulty continues to stay where it is now, no increase or decrease, you are looking at 845 days for a breakeven. I don't understand how there is a market for this. It preys upon those who are not good at math, ignorant of present bitcoin mining trends and those who do not take the time to do the math. I could tell by the facial expressions of the Genesis owner that he was totally surprised by the announcement of Guy's (SPT's) venture into mining for themselves in a merger with BTCS. Guy saw the writing on the wall with cloud mining at present price of bitcoin. He knew what time it was. Hence, the merger with BTCS. I was actually laughing when I saw this dude from Genesis trying to sell cloud mining to all of us in that video with Guy sitting next to him. ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuWvpZHfZEo] |
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We can expect more of the same for a while until few are willing to sell this low ($220'ish). Whales are waiting for the order books to fill with large sell orders from miners, retailers and the like. Once they see this, we can expect a bull rally up to 240'ish again (Buying those large sell orders). This will leave room for consolidation again over the course of a couple of weeks back down to 220'ish again. We can expect this for months to come until we have big news.
$223.00 is actually an excellent time to buy! Those who are not buying right now are wishful thinkers in my opinion.
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The problem is knowing when that correction will come, and how big will it be. For example it could come say at $400, and you'd still make a lot of money buying in now. That's the fun part of investing, or I should say speculation.
for everyone that is really believing in the rise, this is the best opportunity to buy, but many of those are saying that but they are not actually doing it, there is still that small % of thinking that bitcoin might not rise anymore, and will remain at current price forever Price can go both up and down, but i seriously doubt that it will stay where it is, bitcoin seams to be dependent on price oscillations. For now, price not going under 200 is a great success. Regarding people saying one thing and doing the other; well, many believe that the price will go back up, but due to their financial state cant afford to invest anymore. cheers it's a matter of time before we see bitcoin below $200 as i don't think current level can hold it for another month. too much pressure. Why? I can't see the selling pressure doing worse than now it's simple. most traders don't have patience. at some point traders will dump because they are tired of looking at the same price for ages. remember that plenty of traders are looking for quick profits. something they are not getting now. You are very correct, Randy. Most do not have patience. That is definitely what is needed right now. One cannot allow emotion to take control in trading bitcoin. It's best to make good decisions with minimal risk BEFORE moves in price to determine what one would do if the price were to increase a certain amount or decrease a certain amount. Then act, based on those decisions. It's also good to keep enough capital in reserve to do even stop loss buys when the price of bitcoin is at its present low. |
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The problem is knowing when that correction will come, and how big will it be. For example it could come say at $400, and you'd still make a lot of money buying in now. That's the fun part of investing, or I should say speculation.
for everyone that is really believing in the rise, this is the best opportunity to buy, but many of those are saying that but they are not actually doing it, there is still that small % of thinking that bitcoin might not rise anymore, and will remain at current price forever Price can go both up and down, but i seriously doubt that it will stay where it is, bitcoin seams to be dependent on price oscillations. For now, price not going under 200 is a great success. Regarding people saying one thing and doing the other; well, many believe that the price will go back up, but due to their financial state cant afford to invest anymore. cheers I personally believe the reason we are staying where we are at the moment is because those who would be bullish are in protect mode. They know if they buy the market up to higher than 245, the market will only sell it back down in consolidation moves. We still have a bit too much downward pressure from the miners and retailers. Those who would be bearish will not sell it down below 220 because they know a lot of players are itching to buy any bitcoin sub 220. Especially, sub 200. If it goes below 200 again, it would not stay there very long at all. 220 is definitely our bottom of the bowl [So to speak]. I say 220 is the bottom of the bowl because with bitcoin price this low it makes it easier for smaller players to buy a whole bitcoin and compete against the whales who would want to buy in large quantity. Way more little fishy's than their are whales. There is strength in numbers. The whales had a hard time buying what coin they could the last time it was sub 200 because very little of it was for sell compared to the numbers wanting to buy. There was just too much competition to buy sub 200 last time and the whales found this out the hard way. That's why I believe the likelihood of us going sub 200 again is quite unlikely. But, if we do, it will not stay sub 200 very long at all. The bottom [With equal resistance from both sides] has been found. These are my "opinions." I'm not saying this is the way it absolutely is. Good day, David |
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Why would bitcoin surpass gold? Give it time. Even if bitcoin is here to stay, Rome wasn't built in a day. But hey, I'm not one to believe that BTC is about to become world reserve currency, or some craziness like that, either. people like to fantasize about bitcoin taking over fiat currency and gold. it's only not going to happen. what's wrong with bitcoin being an alternative instead of saying it will take over this and that. Gold has some properties that bitcoin lacks. For one thing people can use it to show off by wearing bling gold jewelry. Those wearing it instantly make a statement that they have thousands of dollars without saying a word. There is a whole industry of jewelry shops and pawn shops making a living from that property of gold. Showing off that you have thousands of dollars worth of bitcoins is not as easy. Bitcoin might become worth more than gold, but it's never going to take its place. I would say bitcoin [Or some other crypto currency] could quite easily take gold's place as the world's "preferred" means of "storing worth." For one, it takes up very little space in comparison to gold. Which means one could easily carry around billions of dollars in "net worth" without breaking a swet. If you read the link I posted earlier, you will see how much better bitcoin [Or some other crypto] is much better than gold and can be worth far more than gold in the future. https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf |
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Beats the hell out of me. I'm just glad they are gone. I don't want too much and I don't want too little. 8.5 PH/s to 10.5 PH's is about right to me for the time being.
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@dmwardjr Thx, I needed that.
You're welcome, Sir! |
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One of the most beautiful comments I've seen since while ago.
Well said Mr. David.
If you don't mind, I want to quote this reply and post it in the usd/btc speculation thread.
Thank you.
I don't mind.. You are welcome to make any corrections to grammatical errors, etc... I see a few after reading through it again. I didn't take the time to read through or phrase things better. Some things were a bit redundant as well. Have a great weekend! Thank you! |
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We have many new players coming to bitcoin all the time in the form of retailers, traders and miners mostly. Yes, the "miners" portion is probably slowing down a little bit but they are still coming. I see newbies in the mining threads all the time asking questions about mining. The new one's who come along pick up the slack of any oldies who may have left bitcoin behind. Especially, the newbies to trading bitcoin.
We are still very early in the game for bitcoin. It's a new technology to most; much like the internet and email was to most when it first came out. These things take time. So, be patient and let the blockchain work things out.
We have many venture capital groups who have invested a lot of money into the technology of the blockchain. Many user friendly apps for financial institutions will be coming out soon and will change the way billions in the world live their daily lives. Many here may give up on bitcoin for lack of patience. However, I know billions on this earth who have yet to even hear of it who will gladly accept it with open arms and give it the support it needs in great numbers. There is strength in numbers.
As people in other parts of the world come into the fold of technology with smart phones and the like, we will see a increased enthusiasm for bitcoin - the application. As other applications are created and used on the blockchain [with a relative ease of use and security] news will go around about the blockchain. Bitcoin is not the blockchain. The blockchain is bitcoin. The blockchain is more than just bitcoin. The blockchain is MANY things we have yet to see, but will see in time that will change the way we do many things in the future.
So, be patient... The future is here... It only needs a little time to play out. In June of 2007 (eight years ago on June 29) we had the iPhone or the term, "smart phone." That was only 8 years ago, people. Nobody ever heard the term, "Smart phone" until eight years ago. Eight years is only a blink of an eye. The "drama" in the price of bitcoin fluctuation is what it is - "drama." We haven't had eight years yet with bitcoin.
Do not fret! Bitcoin (the app) will have it's day of recompense. We just need to be patient and wait on the many other things the blockchain can do. It's all about "the blockchain." Not bitcoin! Bitcoin, is only an application on the blockchain. Be patient and watch how many other apps created using "the blockchain" technology changes the world. THEN, you will see a change for the better in how the rest of the world values any other applications, such as bitcoin, using the blockchain technology.
All this talk of saying, "If the price goes below this amount, it's over." I feel the price of bitcoin is directly related to the value of "the blockchain." If the blockchain does well, then most any application using the blockchain will do well; as long as it's user friendly. We are making progress in leaps and bounds with "user friendliness" ever since the blockchain and bitcoin first came out. Give it time folks. The blockchain and and it's apps [Including Bitcoin] will do wonders for mankind the same way the internet has. Just give it time.
Those who give up on it will lose in the end for their lack of patience. Six years is but a fart in the wind in view of time and how technology changes. As more time passes, we will see great strides in the blockchain and many user friendly apps using the blockchain technology; including bitcoin.
David
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I looked into buying a mining rig a while ago, and setting up a pool with my friends, But from what I understand the time for making money from mining has passed.
Gotta think BIG; get where u have cheap power; and hope you can get your hand on the next gen rigs that come out the end of summer or the fall. |
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