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1921  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Proof of Person? on: March 01, 2017, 09:16:30 AM
One of the big problems is that bots will trick users into doing the identification on behalf of the attacker bot:

https://safenetforum.org/t/proof-of-unique-human/167/231

I already wrote about the possibility of proving objectively that a video is a unique human and the EER rates (false positives vs. negatives) are too high to do it automated:

HumanIQ has a technically flawed design?

Please check my analysis. Did I misunderstand something in their design or in my quick research below?

Re: ☑ [ANN] ☰  [ ICO 06|04|2017 ] ☰ Humaniq — Discover the unbanked

Regarding the upthread post wherein I alleged that Ethereum can't scale (and tangentially I also alleged smart contracts on a Turing-complete blockchain are another DAO attack waiting to happen), I was asked to provide some more details.

(Additionally I have recently explained that the 10s (coming to 100s?) of ICOs being launched every year now because of this Ethereum smart contract nonsense which enables rapid prototyping of 1000s of hair-brained ideas that will probably never achieve any serious adoption, because again Ethereum can't scale and another smart contract attack means all smart contracts become untrustable, means we likely have a coming ICO graveyard where our ecosystem has died. Thanks to greedy developers who want to cash out after making a fancy presentation and thus don't develop first and launch without an ICO and really don't have much incentive to develop anything at all after they raise $millions to party with, especially young guys who have a lot of energy for conferences, dinners, parties, fancy hotels, etc.. What happened to my generation of startups where we developed them from our bedroom while living at our parents' hose.

The low marginal cost of preparing the snazzy website, whitepaper and perhaps even a barely functional smart contract demo is minimal, perhaps < $5000 or even less. Yet these ICOs can easily raise 100s or 1000s of BTC. So the supply of ICOs rises to meet the demand from gullible speculators who all "want to buy earlier than each other" so they all end up buying ICOs, thus none of them buy earlier than each other and the ICO developers walk away with the Bitcoins and the speculators will be left penniless in the coming ICO oversupply graveyard because all the demand will have been transferred to ICO developers who don't buy in the aftermarket.)



NEW PROBLEM!

There is also an inconsistency in the HumanIQ design as expressed on pages 6 and 19-22 in the white paper and the wallet features section of the website.

Firstly, you claim that users will only need to use their face and voice and do not need to deal with passwords. But then you tie the user to one device and also to signing keys stored on their mobile device. So if that mobile device is lost, stolen, or accessed even momentarily by a hacker (even if they just extract the keys and device ID perhaps even remotely and don't perform the attack over the user's mobile device), then the attacker only needs to fool the face and video identification system in order to steal the user's funds. They could for example exchange them for Bitcoin and be gone.

Face and video identification systems are theoretically reasonably easy to fool with synthetic methods, and I expect that to be true even against automated challenge-response:

https://engineering.cmu.edu/media/feature/2016/12_01_facial_recognition_eyeglasses.html
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.461.7360&rep=rep1&type=pdf#page=6 (see Figure 9)

Secondly, if user loses his device he has lost his keys. So the only way those keys could be recovered (again meeting your requirement that users don't have to ever mess with keys or store them in a paper wallet) is if some centralized service is storing the keys and can perform a recovery process that identifies the user. But again the attacker can game this recovery process, perhaps unless it is administered by a real human interrogator. And the centralized service becomes a huge attack surface for a hacker to steal all the users' keys (Bitcoin exchange failures show it is a serious risk). And of course as you admit on page 20 of your whitepaper, then it means the biometric identification is not decentralized on the blockchain, but a centralized service. Centralized blockchain concepts will never scale out. The world won't trust a system that depends on one centralized service. Sorry.

HumanIQ is ostensibly obviously lacking the skills of a qualified, experienced CTO on its team. Afaics, the HumanIQ design is irreparably/insolubly flawed and has apparently not been properly vetted by an appropriately skilled technical person.

Note it is possible to utilize face and voice biometrics stored on a blockchain to prove that the users are all unique within the false positive tolerance of multimodal biometric identification, e.g. perhaps to within a few percent false positive rate for synthetic attacks (at current state-of-the-art) and even better if supplemented with real human interrogation (which would be retroactively objectively verifiable from the blockchain data in the future as the state-of-the-art advances). But for automated logins and identification of users ongoing usage of the system, the false positive rate is currently too high because it would be the theft rate. I suppose you were looking at service providers such as the following and just assumed the EER rates were acceptable without reading the research:

https://www.onefacein.com/faq.html
http://www.voicetrust.com/solutions/voice-login/
https://playground.bioid.com/BioIDWebService/LiveDetection
https://www.keylemon.com/oasis
https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-best-face-detection-APIs/answer/Ben-Virdee-Chapman

So I also do not understand why the white paper implies we can't store a (hash of a) video on a blockchain. Surely we can.

Please do point out any misunderstanding or mistake I have made in my analysis.



Note that although via deep learning of deep neural nets the state-of-the-art research on face recognition accuracy has reached as high as 99% (and do look at how close to indistinguishable the errors were even to a human observer such as yourself) and state-of-the-art research on voice identification has reached as high as ~1% EER (i.e. roughly 1% false positive with a 1% false negative if compared to a 2.33% EER on page 5), these performance figures do not include data sets where the attacker is trying to game the system. So refer to the links I provided above on synthetic attacks to get a better idea of the risk of theft with multimodal biometric face and voice identification. The state-of-the-art is advancing rapidly because a 2014 paper only cited a 7% EER, but the datasets and training criteria are not probably not comparable.

1% or even 0.1% rates of theft would still be unacceptable.
1922  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Coinbase's Securities Law Framework applied to every ICO on: March 01, 2017, 12:15:17 AM
Added Bitcoin, Dash, Ethereum, Monero, and Steem to the OP.
1923  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: QTUM - calling all S-C-A-M Hunters. Billionaires, whales, chinese exchanges?? on: February 28, 2017, 11:40:26 PM
BTC, LTC = Legit
99.9% of other coins = scams

No, Crypto is evolving and no one can control it. How good is that?

http://heatledger.ghost.io/2016-year-end-crypto-roundup/

Devolving:

This thread should be about scoring every ICO and project based on Coinbase's Securities Law Framework.

...

The Common Enterprise items are determining whether the token holder has the ability to effect his own destiny without depending on actions of some group that received the Investment of Money.

The Expectation of Profits are if the token holders are expecting to receive collectivized profits from the ongoing operation of the enterprise or system. However the Howey test also refers to expectation of gains, so that would also include investment gains. So IMO the expectation of profits is tied into whether the token holders' potential investment gains depend on some group that received the Investment of Money. If so, then I am going to give at least 100 points for that category.

Note if your project and token is truly decentralized, you will receive a 0 scoring on every category. So please don't tell me this regulation is interring with our ability to have decentralized systems. The law exists for a very good reason. The authorities are standing back and allowing us to reap what we sow, before they are forced to regulate eventually if we don't build truly decentralized systems.

Crowdsales that sell some product that will be produced by the funding raise (was Kickstarter's original model) are not investments with an expectation of profit. The only expectation is to receive the goods purchased. Selling tokens can be considered a s/w product, if there is no expectation of profit and/or dependency on the group that received the money invested. Crowd equity sites already exist on the Internet for companies that want to raise equity funding.


Watch Out, the ICOs Are Coming

...

The 3 typical characteristics, team, product and market seem to have taken a secondary position to the 3 new magical words: tokens, blockchain and decentralization.

Token utility linkage is not always there

The assumption that everything with a potential network effect is going to work with a decentralization starting point is not entirely true. The blockchain is not for everything.

The solution or product being developed needs to have a solid business model linkage that has a particular value when decentralization and/or tokenization of actions take place. The promise of a new model needs to be very compelling.

In the name of decentralization, the promises are big. You can’t just slap a token to anything, and expect magic to happen.

The token is not the business model. The value proposition or utility that is enabled by the token is the business model, and that linkage needs to be there early on. If the direction is not right, the chosen path will not lead to a good place.

...

Neither WeTrust nor Edgeless need their own token. Someone will create copies of their smart contracts which operate with ETH or BTC or which ever is the most liquid and popular token.

Users are not going to adopt a different colored coin for every service they want to use, nor go buy colored coins for every WeTrust fee they need to pay.

These companies need to develop business models that don't depend on them each creating their own unit-of-exchange, because monetary theory informs us that will never happen!

The ICO craze is for taking money from stupid people. Simple as that.

All of you who are buying these tokens are going to lose.
1924  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] [TRST] [TOKEN SALE 3/2] WeTrust.io SAVINGS & INSURANCE PLATFORM on: February 28, 2017, 11:10:05 PM
WeTrust has failed Coinbase's Securities Law Framework scoring guidelines.
1925  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: WeTrust vs Edgeless on: February 28, 2017, 11:09:18 PM
WeTrust has failed Coinbase's Securities Law Framework scoring guidelines.
1926  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Coinbase's Securities Law Framework applied to every ICO on: February 28, 2017, 11:06:15 PM
This thread should be about scoring every ICO and project based on Coinbase's Securities Law Framework (c.f. page 24).

I will update this list in this OP based on feedback in the thread.

Happy ICO shredding! Here we go...

A total score of 100+ on every one of the 3 major categories means "Very likely" for a token to be an investment security subject to SEC regulation.

The Common Enterprise items are determining whether the token holder has the ability to effect his own destiny without depending on actions of some group that received the Investment of Money.

The Expectation of Profits are if the token holders are expecting to receive collectivized profits from the ongoing operation of the enterprise or system. However the Howey test also refers to expectation of gains, so that would also include investment gains. So IMO the expectation of profits is tied into whether the token holders' potential investment gains depend on some group that received the Investment of Money. If so, then I am going to give at least 100 points for that category.

Note if your project and token is truly decentralized, you will receive a 0 scoring on every category. So please don't tell me this regulation is interring with our ability to have decentralized systems. The law exists for a very good reason. The authorities are standing back and allowing us to reap what we sow, before they are forced to regulate eventually if we don't build truly decentralized systems.

Crowdsales that sell some product that will be produced by the funding raise (was Kickstarter's original model) are not investments with an expectation of profit. The only expectation is to receive the goods purchased. Selling tokens can be considered a s/w product, if there is no expectation of profit and/or investment gain dependency on the group that received the money invested. Regulatory-compliant crowd equity sites already exist on the Internet for companies that want to raise equity funding.

Bitcoin

PointsItem
0Investment of Money: Crowdsale
0Common Enterprise: Pre-deployment
0Common Enterprise: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
0Common Enterprise: Live network is operational
0Common Enterprise: egalitarian returns without ongoing effort
0Common Enterprise: variable returns based on ongoing effort
0Expection of Profit: Ownership or equity interest in a legal entity
0Expection of Profit: Entitlement to a share of profits/gains of the enterprise
0Expection of Profit: No function of token
0Expection of Profit: Pre-deployment
0Expection of Profit: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
0Expection of Profit: Voting on budgets
0Expection of Profit: Voting on governance
0Expection of Profit: Marketed as an ICO, not as network access token

TotalsItem
0Investment of Money
0Common Enterprise
0Expection of Profit



Dash

PointsItem
100Investment of Money: Crowdsale (invest money in masternodes in an enterprise run allegedly by "Evan Inc.")
0Common Enterprise: Pre-deployment
0Common Enterprise: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
0Common Enterprise: Live network is operational
25Common Enterprise: egalitarian returns without ongoing effort (masternode ROI)
0Common Enterprise: variable returns based on ongoing effort
0Expection of Profit: Ownership or equity interest in a legal entity
100Expection of Profit: Entitlement to a share of profits/gains of the enterprise (masternode ROI)
0Expection of Profit: No function of token
0Expection of Profit: Pre-deployment
0Expection of Profit: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
0Expection of Profit: Voting on budgets (there is, but obfuscates that allegedly "Evan Inc." has controlling interest)
0Expection of Profit: Voting on governance (there is, but obfuscates that allegedly "Evan Inc." has controlling interest)
0Expection of Profit: Marketed as an ICO, not as network access token

TotalsItem
100Investment of Money
25Common Enterprise
100Expection of Profit



Ethereum

PointsItem
100Investment of Money: Crowdsale
70Common Enterprise: Pre-deployment
60Common Enterprise: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
50Common Enterprise: Live network is operational
0Common Enterprise: egalitarian returns without ongoing effort
0Common Enterprise: variable returns based on ongoing effort
0Expection of Profit: Ownership or equity interest in a legal entity
100Expection of Profit: Entitlement to a share of profits/gains of the enterprise
0Expection of Profit: No function of token
20Expection of Profit: Pre-deployment
10Expection of Profit: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
0Expection of Profit: Voting on budgets
0Expection of Profit: Voting on governance
50Expection of Profit: Marketed as an ICO, not as network access token

TotalsItem
100Investment of Money
180Common Enterprise
180Expection of Profit



Monero

PointsItem
0Investment of Money: Crowdsale
0Common Enterprise: Pre-deployment
0Common Enterprise: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
0Common Enterprise: Live network is operational
0Common Enterprise: egalitarian returns without ongoing effort
0Common Enterprise: variable returns based on ongoing effort
0Expection of Profit: Ownership or equity interest in a legal entity
0Expection of Profit: Entitlement to a share of profits/gains of the enterprise
0Expection of Profit: No function of token
0Expection of Profit: Pre-deployment
0Expection of Profit: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
0Expection of Profit: Voting on budgets
0Expection of Profit: Voting on governance
0Expection of Profit: Marketed as an ICO, not as network access token

TotalsItem
0Investment of Money
0Common Enterprise
0Expection of Profit



Steem

PointsItem
0Investment of Money: Crowdsale
0Common Enterprise: Pre-deployment
0Common Enterprise: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
0Common Enterprise: Live network is operational
0Common Enterprise: egalitarian returns without ongoing effort
-20Common Enterprise: variable returns based on ongoing effort
0Expection of Profit: Ownership or equity interest in a legal entity
0Expection of Profit: Entitlement to a share of profits/gains of the enterprise
0Expection of Profit: No function of token
0Expection of Profit: Pre-deployment
0Expection of Profit: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
0Expection of Profit: Voting on budgets (yet but controlled by a few whales due to the sneaky mine)
0Expection of Profit: Voting on governance (yet but controlled by a few whales due to the sneaky mine)
0Expection of Profit: Marketed as an ICO, not as network access token

TotalsItem
0Investment of Money
-20Common Enterprise
0Expection of Profit



WeTrust

PointsItem
100Investment of Money: Crowdsale
70Common Enterprise: Pre-deployment
60Common Enterprise: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
50Common Enterprise: Live network is operational
0Common Enterprise: egalitarian returns without ongoing effort
-20Common Enterprise: variable returns based on ongoing effort
0Expection of Profit: Ownership or equity interest in a legal entity
100Expection of Profit: Entitlement to a share of profits/gains of the enterprise
0Expection of Profit: No function of token
20Expection of Profit: Pre-deployment
10Expection of Profit: Fully operational protocol, not just a mockup
0Expection of Profit: Voting on budgets
0Expection of Profit: Voting on governance
50Expection of Profit: Marketed as an ICO, not as network access token

TotalsItem
100Investment of Money
160Common Enterprise
180Expection of Profit
1927  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [FACTS] Dash has the whole scene scared ! on: February 28, 2017, 10:37:54 PM
I feel sorry for that guy that bought Zcash coins at over 3 grand each coin.
That boy fat-fingered it hard LOL

I remember reading someone claim that was a milliBTC trade. Totally irrelevant.
1928  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Tokens (Altcoins) / Re: ☘☘☘☘️☘️[ANN|ICO]EDGELESS CASINO ICO STARTS TODAY☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️ on: February 28, 2017, 10:34:13 PM
Watch Out, the ICOs Are Coming

...

The 3 typical characteristics, team, product and market seem to have taken a secondary position to the 3 new magical words: tokens, blockchain and decentralization.

Token utility linkage is not always there

The assumption that everything with a potential network effect is going to work with a decentralization starting point is not entirely true. The blockchain is not for everything.

The solution or product being developed needs to have a solid business model linkage that has a particular value when decentralization and/or tokenization of actions take place. The promise of a new model needs to be very compelling.

In the name of decentralization, the promises are big. You can’t just slap a token to anything, and expect magic to happen.

The token is not the business model. The value proposition or utility that is enabled by the token is the business model, and that linkage needs to be there early on. If the direction is not right, the chosen path will not lead to a good place.

...

Neither WeTrust nor Edgeless need their own token. Someone will create copies of their smart contracts which operate with ETH or BTC or which ever is the most liquid and popular token.

Users are not going to adopt a different colored coin for every service they want to use, nor go buy colored coins for every WeTrust fee they need to pay.

These companies need to develop business models that don't depend on them each creating their own unit-of-exchange, because monetary theory informs us that will never happen!

The ICO craze is for taking money from stupid people. Simple as that.

All of you who are buying these tokens are going to lose.
1929  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] [TRST] [TOKEN SALE 3/2] WeTrust.io SAVINGS & INSURANCE PLATFORM on: February 28, 2017, 10:33:14 PM
Watch Out, the ICOs Are Coming

...

The 3 typical characteristics, team, product and market seem to have taken a secondary position to the 3 new magical words: tokens, blockchain and decentralization.

Token utility linkage is not always there

The assumption that everything with a potential network effect is going to work with a decentralization starting point is not entirely true. The blockchain is not for everything.

The solution or product being developed needs to have a solid business model linkage that has a particular value when decentralization and/or tokenization of actions take place. The promise of a new model needs to be very compelling.

In the name of decentralization, the promises are big. You can’t just slap a token to anything, and expect magic to happen.

The token is not the business model. The value proposition or utility that is enabled by the token is the business model, and that linkage needs to be there early on. If the direction is not right, the chosen path will not lead to a good place.

...

Neither WeTrust nor Edgeless need their own token. Someone will create copies of their smart contracts which operate with ETH or BTC or which ever is the most liquid and popular token.

Users are not going to adopt a different colored coin for every service they want to use, nor go buy colored coins for every WeTrust fee they need to pay.

These companies need to develop business models that don't depend on them each creating their own unit-of-exchange, because monetary theory informs us that will never happen!

The ICO craze is for taking money from stupid people. Simple as that.

All of you who are buying these tokens are going to lose.
1930  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: WeTrust vs Edgeless on: February 28, 2017, 10:32:35 PM
Watch Out, the ICOs Are Coming

...

The 3 typical characteristics, team, product and market seem to have taken a secondary position to the 3 new magical words: tokens, blockchain and decentralization.

Token utility linkage is not always there

The assumption that everything with a potential network effect is going to work with a decentralization starting point is not entirely true. The blockchain is not for everything.

The solution or product being developed needs to have a solid business model linkage that has a particular value when decentralization and/or tokenization of actions take place. The promise of a new model needs to be very compelling.

In the name of decentralization, the promises are big. You can’t just slap a token to anything, and expect magic to happen.

The token is not the business model. The value proposition or utility that is enabled by the token is the business model, and that linkage needs to be there early on. If the direction is not right, the chosen path will not lead to a good place.

...

Neither WeTrust nor Edgeless need their own token. Someone will create copies of their smart contracts which operate with ETH or BTC or which ever is the most liquid and popular token.

Users are not going to adopt a different colored coin for every service they want to use, nor go buy colored coins for every WeTrust fee they need to pay.

These companies need to develop business models that don't depend on them each creating their own unit-of-exchange, because monetary theory informs us that will never happen!

The ICO craze is for taking money from stupid people. Simple as that.

All of you who are buying these tokens are going to lose.
1931  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: What is Success factor in ICO coin and not ICO coin? on: February 28, 2017, 10:30:16 PM
Watch Out, the ICOs Are Coming

...

The 3 typical characteristics, team, product and market seem to have taken a secondary position to the 3 new magical words: tokens, blockchain and decentralization.

Token utility linkage is not always there

The assumption that everything with a potential network effect is going to work with a decentralization starting point is not entirely true. The blockchain is not for everything.

The solution or product being developed needs to have a solid business model linkage that has a particular value when decentralization and/or tokenization of actions take place. The promise of a new model needs to be very compelling.

In the name of decentralization, the promises are big. You can’t just slap a token to anything, and expect magic to happen.

The token is not the business model. The value proposition or utility that is enabled by the token is the business model, and that linkage needs to be there early on. If the direction is not right, the chosen path will not lead to a good place.

...

Neither WeTrust nor Edgeless need their own token. Someone will create copies of their smart contracts which operate with ETH or BTC or which ever is the most liquid and popular token.

Users are not going to adopt a different colored coin for every service they want to use, nor go buy colored coins for every WeTrust fee they need to pay.

These companies need to develop business models that don't depend on them each creating their own unit-of-exchange, because monetary theory informs us that will never happen!

The ICO craze is for taking money from stupid people. Simple as that.

All of you who are buying these tokens are going to lose.
1932  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Vitalik and Tual going to end up in jail? on: February 28, 2017, 09:42:01 PM
I know Barry Silbert been in trouble with the SEC. Vitalik going to prison is a good april fools joke.

The ones who can buy off the SEC may only get a handslap (e.g. Erik Voorhees who afair refunded all the money to participants and paid a fine), but the other smucks will wear the blame nametags on orange prison uniforms:

However, there’s already indications that at least the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is responsible for overseeing the nation's securities laws, is paying attention.

Consensus amidst crisis

Last month, the deputy director of the SEC’s trading and markets division, Gary Goldsholle, pointed to the hack as illustrative of his concerns over consumer protection in similar instances in the future, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

To minimize the negative impact the hack might have on those consumers, Jentzsch said a series of measures have been organized within the community.


Until the legal framework is in place, giving in to the seduction of ICOs puts you and your company at risk of a regulatory crackdown. Founders and non-ICO investors could lose everything to a big penalty.
And that risk doesn’t stop at the company level. Founders and directors could be personally responsible to investors, or even face criminal charges.

So far regulators have taken a light touch, but since The DAO debacle we know the SEC is paying attention to the crypto-equity world, and it’s safe to assume that someone, somewhere is going to get hit with the regulatory hammer. Don’t let it be you.
1933  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: The altcoin topic everyone wants to sweep under the rug on: February 28, 2017, 09:20:05 PM
Coinbase's Securities Law Framework applied to every ICO


Resisting the ICO gold rush
Or: Why you should take the noodles

I’m here today to make the hard sell. I’m telling you to take the noodles. The ICO, or “initial coin offering”, is way more glamorous. It tastes way better. But there’s a catch. Until investment laws change, the ICO route is just too risky.



Founders beware

Until the legal framework is in place, giving in to the seduction of ICOs puts you and your company at risk of a regulatory crackdown. Founders and non-ICO investors could lose everything to a big penalty.
And that risk doesn’t stop at the company level. Founders and directors could be personally responsible to investors, or even face criminal charges.

So far regulators have taken a light touch, but since The DAO debacle we know the SEC is paying attention to the crypto-equity world, and it’s safe to assume that someone, somewhere is going to get hit with the regulatory hammer. Don’t let it be you.


However, there’s already indications that at least the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is responsible for overseeing the nation's securities laws, is paying attention.

Consensus amidst crisis

Last month, the deputy director of the SEC’s trading and markets division, Gary Goldsholle, pointed to the hack as illustrative of his concerns over consumer protection in similar instances in the future, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

To minimize the negative impact the hack might have on those consumers, Jentzsch said a series of measures have been organized within the community.


Watch Out, the ICOs Are Coming

Companies behind these ICOs are promising the moon and the stars, putting out polished websites, white papers, advisory boards, Slack channels, GitHubs, peppering with some legalese language, and topping it with the full dressing support enchilada they can think of; in order to appear as legitimate, as hard-working, as smart and as credible as possible.

Startup diligence is pretty light

Diligence is tilted towards appearances, parabolic claims, white papers, a minimum of legal and lots of online dressing-up. There is relatively little involvement from traditional venture capitalists who typically dispense startup investment. VCs aren’t always right, and granted their model is being disrupted by the ICOs, but they generally have a sense about startups anatomies.

Previously, you were funded because your ideas, teams and initial product progress were worthy of it, at least someone thought so. Now, companies publish a paper making the case for their idea, open some docs for reviews, and ask for money in return for a promise to deliver something maybe in one or two years, that may or may not be accepted by the market.

Along the way, they drag a crowd of investors who buy into it, without necessarily being well informed, nor having used the product. During that process, there isn’t much talk about execution abilities, operational experience, or the rest of the team that will end-up being hired. Much of the analysis is on the surface, often tough to prove or disprove, in part due to a rushing and artificial urgency.

The 3 typical characteristics, team, product and market seem to have taken a secondary position to the 3 new magical words: tokens, blockchain and decentralization.

Token utility linkage is not always there

The assumption that everything with a potential network effect is going to work with a decentralization starting point is not entirely true. The blockchain is not for everything.

The solution or product being developed needs to have a solid business model linkage that has a particular value when decentralization and/or tokenization of actions take place. The promise of a new model needs to be very compelling.

In the name of decentralization, the promises are big. You can’t just slap a token to anything, and expect magic to happen.

The token is not the business model. The value proposition or utility that is enabled by the token is the business model, and that linkage needs to be there early on. If the direction is not right, the chosen path will not lead to a good place.

The marketing hype is frightening

Some ICOs are being marketed like a rocket ship, but in reality, no startup is a rocket ship. A lot of the communication is biased towards the most optimistic assumptions, but nothing goes up in a straight line.

With an ICO, 3 asynchronous periods seem to have blurred and collapsed into one: early stage, go-to market, product-to-market fit. Just because it makes sense in theory doesn’t mean that it will make sense when the market realities enter the picture.

True that some level of speculatory fever can help to fund projects and give them a longer runway life, but if the expectations get far ahead of reality, the gaps may be harder to bridge, resulting in a downward spiral snap.

For good or bad reasons, raising lots of money can hide a lot of mistakes along the way, and there is some of that going on.

Financial engineering has its traps

A rule of thumb for many ICOs has been to allocate 85% of the tokens to the market, and keep 15% for developers and company, but this is a risky ratio. It is equivalent to raising all your funding at once. In the best cases, companies assume that the token will go up in price, which would enable the company (or protocol operator) to never need to raise money again. But not every company is like Bitcoin or Ethereum, just as not every startup is like Facebook or Twitter.

Of course, a smart company would not release more funding to itself until milestones are reached, but few will exercise that type of discipline. Fewer ICOs make a provision for subsequent funding events beyond the ICO.

All and all, funding a startup is not a one shot deal. Too much financial engineering is just that. I would urge anyone planning an ICO to re-read the excellent Security Laws Framework for Blockchain Tokens paper, especially the Appendix.

The legal grounds are still shaky

Despite appearances of success in circumventing legal or regulatory hurdles, some practices just don’t make sense.

Why are tokens allowed to trade before the protocol or product is even out in the marketplace? Heightening expectations with the hope that token prices rise months and years ahead of going to market can go so far before the regulators start raising their eyebrows on that practice. Not all companies can survive the price fluctuations, volatility and speculative waves that will be expected when there is nothing but speculation and trading that drives your token price. Look at the volatility of BTC, ETH and STEEM, and these are examples with actual products that work and have thousands of users.

Crashing the party or priming a launch

Yes, I want the ICO party to continue, but I’m seeing participants that are just there for the ride. I’m seeing companies and ideas getting ICO-funded on a wing and prayer chance of being successful. Some others who have even previously failed to raise in private circles, are now opting for the ICO route. As I said earlier, here comes everybody. When the party gets overcrowded and unwanted visitors want it louder and bigger, events can turn to the unpredictable.

In technology, nothing great is often achieved without irrational exuberance, but when the pendulum swings too far, there will some damage. In the long term, we hope that benefits far outweigh the pitfalls that are encountered along the way, and maybe that is the only way that good things happen.

ICOs are supposed to be like an IPO with a cryptocurrency, but in reality, these are early-stage funding bets. Most of these companies won’t stand the scrutiny of public markets (which they entered, whether they like it or not), while they wished they had the private lives of early stage startups.

An ICO is the beginning and the means to an end, not the end itself. The ICO is not the great enabler of business models and incredible innovation. The blockchain is. An ICO is an alternative funding, operational and ownership model. You still need to bolt a sound business to it. You don’t get a pass there, and you need to get a few things right.
Take everything with a grain of salt, two pinches of hype, and three sprinklings of wishful thinking.


The psychology behind ICO funding
ICONOMI ICO fundamentals — 3 of 4

Rationality and the economics of interest

To address the “irrational” part, we need to talk about crowd mentality and group psychology (suggested reading: a very good paper on the investor psychology).

If a team has built up a lot of hype about a project, it will create a sense of FOMO — fear of missing out. From this point, the project can continue on one of two trajectories. A quality project combined with a lot of initial interest and a high, yet reasonable cap on the fundraise will quickly drive the crowd to fill the ICO. In a nutshell — everybody loves a winner!
1934  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: QTUM - calling all S-C-A-M Hunters. Billionaires, whales, chinese exchanges?? on: February 28, 2017, 09:10:41 PM
Fuck you cocksuckers

Which hole?
1935  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Who could be trusted to do governance? on: February 28, 2017, 09:05:54 PM
The incorrect claim of Byteball creating a wide and fair distribution:

https://medium.com/iconominet/iconomi-acquires-9-766-of-byteball-initial-distribution-free-of-charge-cd9c4a5d49ac#.rkuo958we
1936  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: WeTrust vs Edgeless on: February 28, 2017, 06:31:28 PM
WeTrust has a very good team and good backers (including Bo Shen and Vitalik). I will trust them.

Didn't they back the DAO, that $150 million hacked "smart" contract (that ended up not being a contract but merely a goal to be ripped up and changed ex post facto)?

How quickly we forget. How many more "smart" contract hacks do we need until we stop forgetting so easily?

I personally see both a very good project and will develop in the future, so I think there is no problem if you want to invest in this project because they both had to look great, they are working hard with the team and run the projects themselves very seriously. Cheesy

How is your Lisk ICO investment working out for you?

1937  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think "iamnotback" really has the" Bitcoin killer"? on: February 28, 2017, 06:11:59 PM
This guy thinks Vitalik will go to jail.

Liar:

However, given Vitalik's rich father's political connections, I would doubt he will go to jail. We live a corrupt world.

...

Who knows. My popcorn is ready.
1938  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Vitalik and Tual going to end up in jail? on: February 28, 2017, 06:08:53 PM
Haha you are a funny man. You think all the lawyers they have fired are just sitting on their hands doing nothing? You think Fortune 500 companies would feel safe working with Ethereum if Vitalik is going to go to jail? Accenture, BP, BNY Mellon, CME Group, Credit Suisse among others. You clearly do not know what you are talking about.

As if everyone one who was ever involved with Fortune 500 companies never went to jail. But didn't I just write that he may have the connections to probably avoid going to jail.

As for the coming failures I wrote about, being affiliated with Fortune 500 companies has never prevented such failure. Ever heard of Michael Milken and the high-yield junk bond collapse of many of the Savings & Loans banks in the USA. Or how about Enron executives who were charged. Etc...

You are DELUSIONAL

Less rational than you who doesn't know the definition of 'black swan'?
1939  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: What is Success factor in ICO coin and not ICO coin? on: February 28, 2017, 05:57:28 PM
you can going to miss the BLACK SWANS

By definition, 99.9% of everyone will miss the BLACK SWANS.

black swan
ˌblak ˈswän/
noun
2.
an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences.
"geopolitical black swan events, such as the Arab Spring and the Japanese earthquake, have further complicated the market dynamics"


Thus if everyone is going to miss them, then why are they giving their BTC away to developers to party with?
1940  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Dark Enlightenment on: February 28, 2017, 05:52:18 PM
All incorrect. In essence you are transposing cause and effect, as well transposing large scale changes fromwith "smaller things grow faster" changes. And the agriculture age required roads for economies-of-scale in commerce thus it was not decentralized. You have numerous errors like that throughout.

Well, this is an interesting subject.  Two-wheeled chariots were invented by a "distributed" people, the Andronovo culture in Siberia, about 2000 BC.  One of the oldest roads on earth was build in England at about 3800 BC (the Sweet Track) where it is hard to imagine that it was an empire-induced road building operation.

Again I repeat, you are conflating large scale change with "smaller things grow faster" changes.

Yeah those technological innovations and example prototypes occur due to spontaneous diversity in the decentralized (high entropy) wild, but to scale those innovations out to every human on earth at that time required the monopolist state to conquer all the warlords, and to keep order over interstate commerce. Otherwise it diverged into bandits waiting along the side of the road to effective force you into the business of trading contraband, which destroys commerce.

But the idea that you need a *violence monopolist* and a *king* in order to build roads and be able to do agriculture, is the misguided kind of social lie that we have been fed with since we were children.

...but I don't think that the price of giving all power to an aristocratic elite is necessary to achieve this, which is the basic tenet of statists.

Exactly. And even when a central violent monopolist does do things well (e.g. the height of rome), they don't actually need all that much power. For example look at the tax rate in the Roman empire before sh*t hit the fan. It was 2% but they had a huge empire connected with the best roads, agricultural systems and water distribution systems that weren't reached again till the modern era (and with like 30% tax rates). The problem is that central control brings in corruption and waste, somehow the Romans were able to avoid that (for a while).

Missing from your analysis is the fact that thermodynamic processes are irreversible and you can't just replicate into the past. The state of the empire at the end is of course inefficient, but nature didn't build the empire for the end, but rather for all that it accomplished before the end. You can't get all those in the middle without also getting the end. You can't have it both ways and eat your cake too. Sorry.

As the physical economy becomes a smaller and smaller portion of the total economy, we can move away from physical violence as necessary for human progress.

I also think that if you are dreaming of a "new economy" (the dematerialized economy you're talking about) before hoping that a distributed society like it was before agriculture, is possible again,

Agriculture was never decentralized. Hunting was decentralized. Agriculture required protection from the bandits. You apparently don't know anything about farming. The Bible says don't mix your field with many kinds of plants and don't produce just enough for yourself. Produce an whole hectare of produce and then trade. This is economy-of-scale and maximum division-of-labor which has been absolutely necessary for the productivity of man to increase above subsistence level.

...you will have to wait for eternity.

Dude it is already underway. This is covered extensively in the Economics Devastation thread in the Economics forum.

If you are convinced that one needs a king in order to make food, then we will always need a king (in more modern forms of presidents, parliaments, or whatever aristocratic structure).   Because we will never be free of material needs and always be prone to physical violence.

Wow. What you smoking?
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