For me that does not make a whole hell of a lot of sense - even though it is possible to work to the extent that the price of BTC and alts are inversely correlated.  but sometimes they all drop together, which is why the dollar/BTC pairing can be helpful. 

Perhaps jbreher plays some of those various pairs, but I think that whatever I am saying is kind of ruled out when you start adding various other cryptos as your pairs, mostly because of the extra questions of the lack of a straight line performance of the other crypto that is going to bring extra volatility and even too many additional uncertainties that vary from cycle to cycle.

I know that each of us have our own systems, so it probably does not matter any fuck what I say, because your mind seems to be already made up to trade certain other crypto pairs because for some reason you see some kind of disutility in holding dollars. 

Personally, I understand that the long term certainty of the dollar is that it depreciates in value; however, in the short term, the dollar is way the fuck more stable than any alt coin, including LTC or ETH, and part of the reason for dollar pairing with BTC is to get in and out of crypto volatility and to play it off of the dollar

To me, you seem to be adding a certain unnecessary level of additional risk and additional unknowns in terms of what the fuck those two crypto projects are doing. 

But ultimately.. whatever floats your boat... but it seems more removed from my system when you add more variables of uncertainty that can kind of negate the more focused BTC/USD approach.

I'm NOT bribable because I am already sufficiently RICHIE!!!!!!

Maybe some zen meditation is in order?

I mean really dude (or dudette).  We already had our selfies a 70% price correction, and where is the bad news, exactly?

It could be the case that the implosion of various alts are kind of dragging down BTC, but we actually have clear paths ahead for segwit and lightning, and look at those transaction fees and times, low as fuck (just showing that the long-ass spamming attack had been clogging up blockchain matters for quite a long time)...

Anyhow, BTC fundamentals seem to be doing quite good, so I don't see why any HODLer should be freaking the fuck out regarding the "normal" ups and down of bitcoin.

Recall that an aspect of bitcoin that it the most easily counted upon would be its volatility.  In other words, we do not have any guarantees of either UP or DOWN, but we have as close as we could get guarantee to volatility. 

So hang onto your panties (and all the pants you commandeered), and we should be able to make it through these trying (but seemingly expected) BTC volatility times.   

When I wrote that statement, I was attempting to respond to Lauda's assertion that selling/trading merit was not clear from the forum rules.  Further, in the past month, I had been a little bit concerned that some members were being tagged with Red trust in terms of accusations of selling/trading/soliciting merit even though the rules were not clear regarding that conduct.

So, yeah, I attempted to point out a couple of statements by Theymos regarding trading/ selling or soliciting merit. 

I think that regarding merit sources, the rule is fairly clear that merit sources are prohibited to engage in any kind of behavior to sell or trade merit or to solicit such. 

However, regarding regular members, it seems that technically it is not against the forum rules to sell/trade merit; however, it still would not prohibit other members from giving negative trust to regular members who are engaging in such selling/trading or even soliciting of merit (maybe if soliciting rises to the level of "excessive begging?"). 

So personally, I believe that for regular members it still probably would not be a good idea to sell or trade merit or to attempt to do so through soliciting, even though technically it does not appear to be against any specific merit rule - but it could still attract negative trust because it seems like a dubious kind of behavior....

I think that Theymos's is specific comment about NOT focusing on merit trading/selling of regular members being a "rounding error" is valid too, because the initially distributed merit is going to run out, and therefore the initial distribution of merit does not add up to a lot of merit that would end up being abused through selling/trading. 

Therefore, it seems that it would be a kind of judgement call regarding how much selling/trading of merit behavior would justify giving negative trust.

Maybe you need to provide some more details regarding what brought you to your current HODL status?

When was the last time that you bought and when was the last time that you sold?

Are you 100% "in"  do you have money to buy if it dips?

In my BTC portfolio, I am currently about 93% in BTC and about 7% in fiat, and I feel comfortable with those portions to buy all the way down to $1k and perhaps lower...

Surely, I don't want BTC prices to go down, but price direction is out of my control, and even out of my ability to predict with any certainty.. maybe at times I give up to 60% odds of one direction or another, but even now, I am kind of 50/50 torn about what the fuck is going on here.

So, pee pare ur selfie for either direction, including DOOM..... but not necessarily gonna happen.

Give us something to work with BMB.... What be happening with uie?

Sometimes it can be difficult to fix - and a kind of personality trait... .. but maybe that is a kind of personality trait that makes you so fun (and special) in your own ways, too?   or not? 

Sometimes you can just play your position partially, instead of blowing your whole wadd on your fear in order to achieve the relief that you feel that you need....

So instead of panic selling 100% of your BTC or some large amount, instead you might decide to sell a smaller amount, such as 10% or 15% and then feel better to ride just ride the rest out. 

It can be kind of difficult for us to know from the interwebs without knowing some details, and ultimately, you are the one that has to decide to attempt to pick the approach that best works for you and your circumstances while attempting to continue to learn and tweak your approach so that you can get better at NOT feeling stress, perhaps.

In other words, pee pare ur selfie for DOOM!!!!!!

I think that we call that being over invested, so yeah, you should have been taken out profits along the way in order that you would not feel like this - yet that is water under the bridge because we cannot go back  and actually do the could have, would have, should have... . The only thing that you can do is act upon the options currently, rather than what you should have done... in order to lessen that the amount that you feel this way.

By the way, I think that we all feel the way that you feel a little bit, no matter what our having had sold some on the way up, because we conclude that we could have sold more and been able to buy back more - however, there are ways to prepare in order that the degree of the feeling does not cause such stress that we are acting on our emotions rather than logic.

Yes.. but, at a risk of being repetitive, a nuance of what I am believing to be logical in terms of price momentum is that we have support in the upper ranges, such as $8k and $7k (I don't know exactly where, but those are ball park prices in which support is quite likely); however, if BTC price breaks below a low point, such as $6,666.66, then there is less likelihood to have sufficient support at $6k a second time down to that level. 

I do believe that Harlot has made a decent point that if BTC prices breaks low enough, such as below $6,666, then $4500-ish would become reasonably within reach, at that point.. yet on the other hand, Harlot seems to be asserting that $9,200 is the breaking point which makes little fucking sense since we seem to be quite a long way from $6,666, even if $9,200 were to break, so TLDR (and repetitive point) you cannot necessarily assume that $4,500 is in the cards merely because of a breaking below $9,200. 

So fucking what? 

Can you get over your personal animosity and try to appreciate the whole situation more objectively.

I don't know what you are talking about 2/3 loss blah blah blah...

Whatever value was on Bitfinex at the time of the hack was socialized, and that was a 36% take from them and tokens were given that you could sell or end up holding for  about 7 months when they paid it all back... Yeah, sure it may have been a bit questionable, but it was also potentially innovative too... I had money on there too, at that time.



Hasn't this FUD been beaten to death?  And, yeah right it is comparable to MTGOX, right.... 


I thought that you were making a bitcoin system-wide problem and now your are turning it into some kind of personal bias issue...?  My main point is that you seem to be exaggerating the impact of one exchange, and you have little to no evidence or logic to be backing up your nonsensical exaggerated seemingly FUD spreading claims.

I was kicked off of Bitfinex more than half a year ago, because I have USA connections, so I do not have money there..... although I would still be using it, if they had not kicked me off of their platform.

Anyhow, my main point is that you are just spreading nonsense with your attempt to assert that Bitfinex has any kind of meaningful impact on the space as if bitcoin could not absorb whatever possible shenanigans they are playing, if they are.

I understand that if the price breaks below $9,200, then you are going to wait to buy in the $4,500 price arena, maybe you would buy above $5k, just to be safe, right?

On the other hand, if the price does not break below $9,200, then at what point would you get back in, if at all?


By the way, you may have already seen my posts on this topic, and personally I doubt that breaking below $9k is going to give you clear sailing down to $4,500 or points just above that because there seem to be pretty decent odds that there is going to be decent support at $8k and $7k... so you gotta get past that support first, in my humble bumble opinion.

FTFY:   Just for definitional sakes (and clarity)... going down there is support and going up there is resistance.

Looking like it.


sad


and


Doom...


 

What the fuck you talking about with your bullshit nonsense?

Do you believe honey badger gives a shit about one or two exchanges? 

Do you recall in 2015 and 2016, the news across the forums and the mainstream media was that China controls the price of Bitcoin.. blah blah blah.. bullshit.

Do you recall in late 2016 and early 2017 when the Chinese government pretty much locked Chinese exchanges, and did honey badger give a shit?  Nope.

Honey badger left the chinese peeps having to chase the bitcoin train.. and only those Chinese players who had access to bitcoin in other ways (or did not sell their bitcoin) were able to profit during their being locked out through Chinese exchange avenues that had previously supposedly been controlling BTC prices...

and we found out



the were NOT.

I was eating breakfast, and I realized that I had not responded to these two above points.  I think that it is fair to attempt to flesh out various ideas of downside price preparation a bit more.

d_eddie... You attribute my preparedness to my being "better funded;" however, I want to quibble a little bit with you on this point.

There may be some truth about the "well funded" aspect being attributable to BTC price accumulation over time - anc especially because I largely accumulated by the end of 2014... and I had been in more of a maintenance stage in 2015 and thereafter (even though many of us HODLers, never completely stop our attempts at accumulating).

What I am trying to say is that probably a more important aspect of preparedness is the factor of time rather than BTC wealth accumulation and if you were able to largely establish your position before August 2017, then you could have been in a position to profit almost as well as anyone because from August to December BTC prices went up about 7.5x from $2,600 to $19,666... so with preparedness, many of us could have been  "well-funded" from the August to December exponential price rise.  

So, ultimately, even though both funding and time are going on, I understand the problem of preparedness (or lack of preparedness) to be more of a time factor rather than a well-funded factor, because the longer that any of us are in bitcoin, then the more that any of us would have already been more strongly established into our positions, and therefore, had a pretty decent plan to sell our BTC on the way up in order to be "well-funded" and thus better prepared for down.

On the other hand, if you had only established your BTC position in mid-2017 or you were in the process of establishing your BTC position in mid-2017, including the run-up to $19,666 - you would have been filled with a larger percentage of FOMO that would have been fogging your willingness to prudently sell BTC on the way up in order to be better prepared for larger downward BTC price swings.

So, I think that the punchline point that I am trying to make here is an emphasis on time-in and practice and setting up your preparedness for both up and down, rather than whether you are going to be in a position to be "well-funded" when the rubber hits the road for such preparedness need.

d_eddie... I don't recall your situation?  Had you been "in" bitcoin before the registration of your current BTC_Talk account, or were you still in the process of establishing your BTC position in mid-to-late 2017?

Ultimately, any of these assessments about preparedness for BTC price swings in either direction and personal strategies to employ have to do with personal considerations regarding the degree to which you are in BTC accumulation or BTC maintenance - and clearly there are a combination of these that go on with individuals - including situations, like a sudden cash flow issue (either an emergency or an unexpected inheritance) that could change the degree to which any of us consider ourselves to be in BTC accumulation or maintenance... or another scenario would be if any of us were to know that either a major fiat bill is coming up or we will be coming into a major amount of money at a defined point in the near future, which could also cause any of us to re-assess which phase we are in at that particular time.

Don't remind me.  I am declining in my segregating amalgamated skill-set package (as jbreher might refer to it) and I cannot even keep up.  

I am thinking that I might have to attend a kind of statistics and probabilities re-education camp, until then I can't really apologize for my contentical lackings because I cannot guarantee that it won't happen again.  

Your post has now inspired me to begin outlining some guidelines for myself to put aside some funds for either: 1) statistics and probabilities re-education camp and/or 2) buying more BTC, just in case (perhaps 34.8% odds... o.k... im slipping, im slipping), prices go below $6,666.

You are correct about the long term and macro phenomenon regarding bitcoin and some of the built in dynamics; however, at this time, there is way less than 1% of the whole world population that has any kind of direct involvement in bitcoin or purchasing it in any kind of significant quantity, so bitcoin still remains a quite small player in the whole scheme of things and remains an opportunity for folks who invest early.

Regarding government intervention, sure there seem to be some governments that are kind of looking into bitcoin, but the vast majority have little to no clue about what to do or whether any kind of systematic approach might be useful - they are still grappling with the smallness of it, and even some of the seemingly disproportionate hype with an ongoing reality that few people buy into bitcoin, and even if we attempt to include broader cryptos into the picture, the total number of people who have bought in remains very small.

I have no idea what you mean by that quote or from where you got it.


Your facts don't even sound correct.  The bull market started in about October 2015.  So, if you are talking about the latest price rise from November to December 2017, you seem to be relying on an out of context set of facts, no?



Of fucking course, this time is different... get a fucking grip.  MTGOX was a different historical time with different dynamics, so if you are trying to act like the BTC market is the same, then you are on a wacky trip.  You gotta be more specific than just throwing out random and baseless prediction assertions that might only be by looking at a chart or some other non contextualized identification of supposed patterns.


That is your fucking lack of foresight.... what the fuck would you be telling folks to be doing nearly the opposite of what they should be doing.  you can sell on the way up and buy on the way down, but yeah, if you did not sell enough, then you made a mistake, and probably the better thing to do would be to hold through it, but sometimes you do have to take a bullet when you fucked up by not selling enough while the price was going up....

So currently we are in a buy situation or in a hodl situation.. not a sedl situation.


You can feel all that you like, the facts are not with you and you are coming off as a nonsense FUD spreader.

Sure, it could be correct that it ends up being a 2014 situation, but not seeming too likely at the moment.


That is a pretty pessimistic view.  You better sell all your BTC and get the fuck out then.  Maybe if it goes back to $500, then you might consider buying at that point.


I think that you personally should sell everything right now, because you don't have any confidence in BTC.. so get out while you can.

Other folks should probably consider both the upside and the downside, so this does not seem like a good time to be selling, but surely everyone needs to decide based on their own situations.

Why you coming into this party celebration thread with your debbie downer newbie nonsense predictions... ?

Get the fuck out of here with that baloney.. Your chart did not show on the page because you are a newbie, and I did not even click on your link to a chart because any chart is almost completely irrelevant whatever a fucking chart says in an aspirational and historical thread, like this one.. .

There are quite a few guys (and gal) here that are likely sick of hearing my personal BTC related plan because it really does not change too much, even if I come out with some strong assertions regarding my anticipated market directions that I believe to be more likely than others. 

I already concede that I could be wrong and on an ongoing basis, and I prepare and re-prepare for BTC prices in both directions.. it's an ongoing approach and tweaking of mine.

So, it seems to me that my ongoing presumption is very much similar to yours - however the only thing that I seem to be doing that is different from you is that I have an ongoing strategy to continue to sell BTC in small amounts all the way up (about 1% selling for every 10% price rise) and to continue to buy all the way down (similar amounts), and just like you I presume that the chances of UP (especially in the long run) are pretty decent, but I don't want to put all my eggs into that UP-scenario basket... and that is part of the rationale for continuing to sell BTC all the way up..   Buying  on the way down is largely a way to attempt to make lemonade out of a kind of lemon set of circumstances... So sure, I don't really like it when BTC prices go down, but at the same time, it seems to be almost inevitable in BTClandia that we are going to get both UP and DOWN, and that seems to be one of the BIGGEST guarantees in bitcoin (aka volatility).  WE can probably bank on volatility more than we can bank on either UP or DOWN - even if we presume that UP is a bit more likely than DOWN.

In other words:  I probably would be too stressed with a BTC HODL only strategy, but certainly, I do not disagree with such buy and HODL strategy. 

At any point, it is possible that BTC prices will stagnate - and for example, BTC prices never go above $10k again, so in some sense we have to prepare for that scenario too.. or even a worse scenario, that BTC  prices go down to $1k and then hover between $1k and $3k and never go above $3k again... I personally believe that any below $20k scenarios in the next 5 years are the less likely scenarios, yet it still seems prudent to prepare for the possible happening of such negative scenarios (and we are in a better state of preparation if we are already 10x, 20x or 30x in profits).

Even if we believe that the above $20k in 5 years is the more likely scenario (even the more likely scenario is no where near inevitable and I only consider it as more likely rather than inevitable), we gotta be financially and psychologically prepared in the event that it does not happen.  Currently, I consider that $50k in 5 years has a pretty decent chance of happening, maybe in the 30-40% arena, and $50k has raised that far into the state of higher probabilities based on our recent outrageously bullish outcome going way past expectations into the $20k range, when previously $5k was the top of likely bullish scenarios (3x to 5x greater than expected price performance).  So $50k is possible in 5 years and even higher numbers are possible in that time frame or even shorter time frames, and surely we are sitting pretty even if our average price per BTC is in the $3k to $5k range, but of course, the lower our average cost per BTC, the more cushion we have for our level of comfort to feel better prepared psychologically and financially for a larger variety of scenarios.

From where are you getting the impression that guys are "sure"?  We seem to be batting around scenarios, and some of those scenarios don't even come to play unless $10k breaks, which has not happened yet... and when we were at $11,500+, there was not even any kind of certainty that we were going to be coming back down, because at that time, we could have broken further UP, too..

I'm sure that there are some folks that are playing BIG and guessing correctly, and maybe TERA2 is going to come back in here and tell us how she played it all correctly and how now it is going down to lower points, that she had already set herself up for such play.. maybe she speaks truth and maybe she is just bullshitting, even if the waves end up playing fairly close to her early outline of what was going to happen (but still does not mean that she can foresee the future - even if the outlined scenario ended up coming out largely correct).