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1941  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide on: August 14, 2011, 10:23:31 PM
Few more weeks to see? Is there a finite time for bubbles?

The charts show a remarkable symmetry, yes. That is what I used to project out to this month and price level.
1942  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Searches for 'bitcoin' are being blocked in China on Google on: August 14, 2011, 09:47:55 PM
Shine an IR laser modulated to carry a TOR exit node to a towerblock from Hong Kong to Shenzen and beyond? There's got to be clever ways to circumvent the "Great Firewall" besides VPN. Although a laser would be subject to signal degradation based on distance and weather conditions, it would be pretty hard to detect right off.
1943  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What if mining gets less expensive? on: August 14, 2011, 09:41:58 PM
thats always obvious, and why i never said it was free to mine, however, once everything is set up, you only have to do small maintenance for the most part. this would mostly be cleaning the mirrors every several weeks and lubing up the engine. occasionally replacing a part.

Combine the design with easily printed 3D parts via current technology, and you'd really have something there. Of course, it would require the associated machining to get the whole thing assembled, but if you ever broke anything you could replace it readily without relying on anyone. The plans could also be easily distributed.
1944  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN/FullDisc.] Mainframe & Vladimir join forces - Offer Pool Service on: August 14, 2011, 09:34:03 PM
Just curious, as this applies to the larger pools - do you have failover strategies in place to deal with DDoS attacks? As GigaHash capacity pools consolidate hashing power, you inevitably become a bigger target.

I don't have anything against your enterprise, just seems like a concern you'll have to deal with eventually.
1945  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide on: August 14, 2011, 09:30:08 PM
We're about halfway through August and haven't slumped below $5.00, which bodes well for the "Bitcoin isn't a bubble" analysis I posted a while ago.

Just a few more weeks to see...
1946  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A call to create a new kind of exchange on: August 12, 2011, 06:26:38 PM
If anyone could make the below a reality, that would be nice. Still rife with design problems though when you get to the 'edges' where money has to change hands.

1947  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: IxCoin is a SCAM on: August 12, 2011, 06:23:32 PM
The only two reasons I'll care (if ever):

1) IxCoin can be traded for Bitcoin and vice-versa
2) Major hack attempt against the exchange trading them or the end-users

He's got the freedom to do as he sees fit, but true value is seen by the participants. If the above isn't true, then people don't value them much at this point.
1948  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold bubble on: August 10, 2011, 08:43:35 PM
We touched $1,800 USD/oz. today but it's fallen back to +42.12 @ $1,782.12 USD/oz...

Cheers,
Kermee

Yep, currently at $1,793 on August 10th. Bet we see $2,000 before year end.
1949  Economy / Speculation / Re: Aftermath of Panic on: August 10, 2011, 08:42:37 PM
Anyone who thinks one person is responsible for any of the moves (other than the much-publicized goxian-crash) in the current market - is simply mental.
1950  Economy / Speculation / Re: Looks like the market manipulator is back. But for how long? on: August 10, 2011, 08:39:27 PM
Calling "market manipulation" is like seeing water in the desert. It isn't there man, just lots of trades bunched in the order book. The only true massive sell event would be the goxian-crash. I doubt we have anything like that for the upside.

The people who believe one speculator is responsible for the ups and downs doesn't understand the cumulative effect of the bid-ask spread, or how markets work in general.

I'm still happy to take their money, though Smiley
1951  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Certain Bitcoins worth more than others? on: August 10, 2011, 02:42:02 AM
Interesting. Would be fascinating if you could trace the 'lineage' of the first bitcoins from the genesis block to someone holding them today. Well, I shouldn't say 'if' - that is what the blockchain is for. I don't think I'll be tackling that task, however.

The collectible aspect is a cool idea.
1952  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: global economic collapse on: August 10, 2011, 02:40:17 AM
I wouldn't mind gradual erosion. It only makes the case for bitcoin stronger, the flaws in government policy set in sharp relief. Harder to say bitcoin isn't 'real' when your own currency can't even cut it.

At the same time, I don't want massive economic upheaval to result in social chaos. So, perhaps a gradual 'enlightenment'.
1953  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Theme Custom Built Bike ~ Input Desired on: August 10, 2011, 02:38:03 AM
Awesome. BTCycle.

Somehow I see it being a chopper, but honestly any format would work. Just depends on the customizing bits. Dual fans on the engine heatsinks mocked up to look like 6990s? Hah.

1954  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why are we letting bitcoin fall into the floating fiat currency trap? on: August 10, 2011, 02:35:26 AM
3) Every block that is mined reduces the available supply, which in turn provides higher value. (For bitcoin itself, not compared to fiat currencies.)

I don't get this one; doesn't each block introduce 50 new BTC every 10 minutes?

Yes, but this generation is finite. The upper bound is 21 million. We've 'minted' 1/3 of that so far, only 14 million bitcoins left. The knock-on effect will become more apparent after the block reward is halved, according to the algorithm that controls it.
1955  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stock market crash - 5 % overall on: August 09, 2011, 05:14:57 PM
The euro is the next to implode.

The fat pig Italy is going to roll over, crush Spain and mortally wound Germany, who is already panting like a fat businessman running a marathon after backstopping Greece.

1956  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mining at a loss: Insurmountable Problem in the near future or am I mistaken? on: August 09, 2011, 05:12:04 PM
Why would the Dow crashing and the S&P tanking and Bank of America collapsing propel people into political activism?

Oh wait... you were talking about the US economy right?

The euro is next Smiley
1957  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its gonna be one hell of a ride once the rally kicks off on: August 09, 2011, 05:10:33 PM
The current Dow and S&P index implosion should provide some impetus to run the hell away from the dollar. It is going to be a fun month, for sure Smiley

That's funny, people are flocking to the very thing that's supposed to be collapsing right now (the US dollar).

Just wait until the euro implodes.
1958  Economy / Speculation / Re: no place to run: Tuesday 8/9/11 speculation thread on: August 09, 2011, 04:39:25 PM
Gizmodo is the internet equivalent of a hyperactive kid, bouncing around and pulling your leg to get your attention. They didn't 'get' bitcoin when it first came out, didn't bother to really learn anything, so naturally the evolution from their "discovery" of the system leads to internet-taunting, then proclamations of it being 'dead'.

They regurgitate every tech story, gadget, application and video-of-the-moment in some kind of fitful montage that would make any rational adult question their sanity. They're the firehose stream-of-consciousness-aggregator that tries way too hard to be 'edgy', all the while plastering their horrible site design with tacky advertising promotions.

Come to think of it, Gizmodo is the internet whore on the corner, wearing ill-fitting and garish clothes that advertise the latest Apple product on its cottage-cheese ass.
1959  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis on: August 09, 2011, 04:32:03 PM
Now that Scenarios 1 and 2 have been blown out of the water  Tongue...

I am now looking at Scenario 3. It still seems to be dependent on where we end up on the day. Generally, the prices that I would expect going forward will be higher if we end up higher, and lower if we end up lower. As I see it right now, if we do not test new highs or new lows for the day the threshold for the 24 hour price looks like $8.22 to avoid a dip below $7.00 over the next four days. For what it is worth, I place a 75% confidence level on that outcome. If it looks like things have changed I will post an update. But I will still post the four day targets after 12am GMT.


Don't sweat it, my model looks like a sheet hung out in a hurricane. You're doing better than that, by a long shot. I'm interested as well to see if we maintain a 10 dollar support level in the next 24 hours.
1960  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why are we letting bitcoin fall into the floating fiat currency trap? on: August 09, 2011, 04:22:35 PM
While I agree it would be nice to have everything priced in bitcoin, the reality is the system has to slowly permeate the existing infrastructure. I prefer the gradual growth scenario for a number of reasons.

1) It prevents the existing financial system from taking too much interest in things until it is way too late.

2) Allows the network hashing power to multiply to even higher amounts than where it is now.

3) Every block that is mined reduces the available supply, which in turn provides higher value. (For bitcoin itself, not compared to fiat currencies.)

Network effects will eventually show up in the mainstream, with articles and other primers popping up voluntarily. Hopefully by that time the client will have iterated to a more user-friendly and informative interface design.

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