I guess a lot of you guys have heard about how easy it is to become a millionaire with betting. Just place one bet each day with odds of 1,02 starting with 100,- Euro (or whatever your currency might be), go all-in every time and you’ll be a millionaire around 15 months later, sounds easy huh ? It’s not. I have yet to see anybody, who publicly provided his bets, to achieve that. There is many reasons for failing to make it, but the most common is probably impatience.

I doubt I will be the first to achieve it, but will give it a try nonetheless. It goes like this:



I won’t play exactly a 1,02 every day, there might be days with 1,01 and days with 1,05, but I will try to have a 1,02 on average. If there is nothing appealing on a given day, I won’t rush with a bet. Same goes if there is two or more good bets on the same day, I might play multiple.

I will not play these bets for real – they are just on paper - because while it’s technically doable, I don’t think anybody is able to mentally go through with it till the end. You will only lose 100,- Euro whatever happens, but in your mind, you will lose more. Already in the 5-figure range, most people will fold mentally, let alone at later stages, where you would have to put 900k+ on some scrubs doing sports.

The logistics might be a problem later on as well. Bookmaker limits might be too low, not enough volume on Betfair too and with shopping for the best odds, you would often have to withdraw and deposit huge amounts with bookmakers. Most people don’t have 900k lying around.

So this is more a fun challenge, everyone can feel free to follow the bets though.

For bets with Betfair, I will calculate with a flat commission of 5%. Only pre-match bets for easy tracking for those interested.

Bank: 100,- Euro
W-L: 0-0
Average odds: N.A.

Bets played:
#1 l Volleyball l WGER1 l Schwerin vs Erfurt l Home Win l 1,02 l 100,00 l Leonbets 3-1 WON
#2 l Football l UEL l Sevilla vs Dudelange l Sevilla 1X (lay Dudelange @50) l 1,02 l 102,00 l Betfair 3-0 WON
#3 l Handball l WHUN1 l Ferencvaros vs Mosonmagyarovar l Ferencvaros ML l 1,03 l 103,98 l Expekt 30-20 WON
#4 l Football l NED2 l Grafschaap vs Dordrecht l lay 0-0 l 1,02 (lay @42) l 107,10 l Betfair 5-0 WON
#5 l Am. Football l NCAAF l Alabama+Clemson l Home win parlay l 1,04 l 109,57 l Leonbets 48-7 & 59-7 WON
#6 l Handball l SWE1 l Skanela vs Bodens l Skanela win l 1,02 l 114,00 l  Expekt 34-17 WON
#7 l Football l ENG1 l Liverpool vs Tottenham l lay 0-1 (@34) l 1,03 l 116,28 l Betfair 2-1 WON
#8 l Football l CUPGER l Bochum vs Bayern l Bayern X2 l 1,03 l 119,56 l Betago 1-2 WON
#9 l Volleyball l GER1 l BR Volleys - Eltmann l BR Volleys ML l 1,03 l 123,15 l Bet365 3-0 WON
#10 l Football l MLS l Atlanta vs Toronto l lay 0-2 (@40) l 1,02 l 126,84 l Betfair 1-2 WON
#11 l Basketball l GER1 l Ludwigsburg vs Hamburg l Ludwigsburg ML l 1,11 l 129,93 l Betsson 94-83 WON
#12 l Football l NED2 l Cambuur vs Nijmegen l lay 0-0 (@26) l 1,04 l 144,22 l Betfair 0-0 LOST

No wonder that article is written by some casino site

People are playing around with Martingale for decades. Martingale doesn't work and is a safe way to the poor mens house. It only works, if you have unlimited money and if you have unlimited money, there is no need to play Martingale Even playing Martingale the safe way like proposed in that article will get you to a point, where the mental stress is ridiculous. At some point you are risking an insane amount of money just to recover your previous losses and win a few bucks on top.

VC, ICO and IPO is a risky business too, but you at least have a fair chance from the get-go, assuming you did your due dilligence. You will still lose all invested money most of the time, but you will also hit some homeruns, which easily make up for previous losses.

Back in the days in the good old Betfair forums a guy popped up claiming to having found the holy grail of betting/trading. He said he developed a strategy to make sure 9%-12% with trading football matches. No risk involved, you can’t lose. The strategy could be applied to lots of football matches, multiple during busy days, they just needed to fit certain criteria and the markets needed enough volume.

That led to heated discussions of course. People were calling it a hoax, others found themselves in some kind of gold rush, but everyone tried to wrap their head around, if this was even possible. And if so, how ?

The mysterious Slicer would involve in these discussions and give some hints to point people in the right direction. This is what is known:

• The strategy consists of two pre-match bets, with a third bet (or series of bets)and adjustment of second bet possibly needed at half-time
• The first bet is lay 0-0 HT
• If the first bet wins, the second bet will lose
• Home team should be solid favourite
• Market has to have good volume/liquidity

People found out relatively quick, what that second bet was and from what I recall, Slicer confirmed.

So you have these two bets at the start of the match:

• Lay 0-0 HT
• Back 0-0 FT

That leaves us with a profit every time a goal has been scored in the first half. The problem starts, when there is no goal scored. By hedging the 0-0 FT back bet, you won’t recover the loss you made with the lay 0-0 HT bet, so some additional action has to be taken to turn this match into a profitable one.

There were some bright minds in the Betfair forums, but no one was able to figure that third bet out. In some cases, depending on how the match unfolded in first half, you could get out with no loss at half-time, but no win too. Then you could just wait for a few minutes after half time and get out with no loss as well – but that leaves you vulnerable to an early second half goal and the risk of losing both bets. And all this is far away from 9%-12% profit with every match you touch (after some research).

Do you think Slicer had – at that time – really found the holy grail ? What could that third bet been ? Do you think there is still some bugs in the markets nowadays that can be exploited ?

Discuss.

Das erinnert mich an den Porsche 911 Betcup von bet-at-home, wo man einen Porsche 911 im Wert von 100k gewinnen kann. Hier muss man nur jeden Tag eine Wette abgeben; ist egal, ob man gewinnt oder verliert.

Das Ganze ist 2008 (!) mit 17278 Teilnehmern gestartet und immer noch nicht beendet



Wenn man davon ausgeht, dass nur noch bots im Rennen sind, dann wird irgendjemand in 100 Jahren einen nigelnagelneuen Porsche-Oldtimer bekommen

Thanks for the game @micgoossens

Most projects should be done liquidating their BTC by the end of 2019 and I see people sitting more tight on their BTC, while the big boys are still pushing the market around at will. So it's hard to guesstimate where they want the price to be at any given date. Should be a bit higher than it is now though, thus my guess: $9100

Man kann das durchaus einstellen, dass dem nicht so ist, indem man einfach unter "Notifications and Email" die entsprechenden Häkchen entfernt:

You won't get those 18k, forget about that. And there is nothing you can do against it other than take it on the chin and learn from it. As long as you make your deposits and lose money you are a good customer, once you start winning and want to withdraw, the harassment starts. This is oldschool bookie style.



How can you lose on this match as a bookie Real not winning at home against some scrubs in CL is normally party time for the bookies.

Hehe, danke für die lange Erklärung. Ich weiß natürlich die Antworten auf die Fragen eigentlich selber, da ich schon sehr lange mein Geld mit dieser Thematik verdiene. Wollte nur mal eine kleine Diskussion entfachen und schauen, wie weit du in der Thematik drin bist, denn deine Analysen im Wettforum zur BB-WM waren sehr gut, Respekt dafür


Bei 1X2 vs AHC sind die AHC Quoten in 99% höher, da der AHC Markt nur ein 2-Wege-Markt ist und das risk management für den Buchmacher demnach einfacher ist (balanced book). Also kann er hier mit einer geringeren Marge arbeiten.

Was die Frage offen lässt, warum bei 2-Wege-Markt vs 2-Wege-Markt es trotzdem Unterschiede zwischen dem normalen Markt und dem asiatischen Markt gibt. Darauf habe ich leider in den all den Jahren auch noch passende Antwort gefunden. Es kann nur daran liegen, dass die Buchmacher ihre Marge im normalen Markt bei 2-Wege einfach so lassen und den Kunden für dumm verkaufen wollen. Als Beispiel mal Zenit vs Benfica heute abend bei Bet365:



Schon ein krasser Unterschied Der ambitionierte Wetter sollte also immer mal bei asiatischen Märkten vorbeischauen, ob es dort nicht bessere Quoten gibt. Viele vernachlässigen immer, sich auf die Suche nach der besten verfügbaren Quote für eine Wette zu machen. Ist aber sehr wichtig, da es langfristig einen enormen Unterschied ausmacht.


Kann ich eben nicht und wäre auch falsch, das zu behaupten ! Für eine einzelne Wette kann man NIE sagen, ob sie value ist/war oder nicht. Für das Prinzip von value bets, wird ja immer ein statischer Zustand zugrunde gelegt, d.h Tottenham vs Bayern müsste z.B. 100-mal unter EXAKT GENAU den gleichen Bedingungen gespielt werden. Erst dann hätte man einen aussagekräftigen Wert, wieviel dieser Spiele over/under 2,5 enden und welche Quote letztlich fair wäre. Dies ist aber im Sport nicht möglich (beim Münzwurf hingegen schon). Das Spiel gestern hatte 9 Tore, kann aber auch genau so gut sein, dass die nächsten 80 Spiele unter diesen Bedingungen under 2,5 ausgehen.

Bezüglich der value bets, kann man nur langfristig eine Aussage treffen. Jemand, der mit Wetten dauerhaft Gewinne erzielt, ist in der Lage, über eine genügend große sample size (>500 Wetten) valuehaltige Quoten zu spielen. Dazwischen werden unglaublich viele nicht-valuehaltige Quoten liegen und welche die extrem viel value hatten, aber im Schnitt hatte alle Wetten value. Und deshalb ist er im plus.

Danke für die zügige Antwort.

Nein, ich meinte, dass z.B. -0.5 ja das Gleiche ist, wie Sieg, aber die Quoten bei -0,5 immer höher sind.

Dortmund hat heute Abend eine 1,94 im 1X2 Markt, aber eine 1,97 im AHC Markt. Woran liegt das ?


Ok, auch wenn es in den Top-Ligen kaum value gibt, sagen wir mal, ich hätte gestern bei Tottenham vs. Bayern over 2,5 gespielt zu 1,63. Nun sind ja wie wir wissen sogar 9 Tore gefallen, also kann ich ja behaupten hier eine value bet gefunden zu haben.

Meine Frage ist also, woran ich erkenne, ob diese einzelne Wette nun wirklich value hatte ?

Nice surebet with Betfair lay @1,7x, so I guess you will have to adjust your odds soon

_____________________________________________

On a general note, you guys should improve these two things, because you are missing out on some profit here:

• Get rid of matches going pre-live and thus lots of markets vanishing until the game is live
• Add a button "always accept better odds" for live betting

Warum sind beim asiatischen Handicap die Quoten immer höher, als bei den äquivalenten 1X2 Wetten ?


Kann man sich sicher sein, ggf. auch im Nachhinein, dass eine Wette value hat ? Abgesehen von offensichtlichen Quotenausreißern.

lol, denk halt mal drüber nach

Same here:

add1ct3dd

Before this, last post was in May 2019.

From the screenshot everything looks fine, you have connections and no error message.

You should probably update your wallet to 1.2.4. During the installation process you will be asked, if you want to download the blockchain, click NO there: https://github.com/xaya/xaya_electron/releases

What is the error message you get ? What wallet version are you on ? Please give a screenshot if possible.

Plagiarism from Yobit campaign participant:

User: lestherat


First part taken from: https://exmarkets.com/launchpad/ix15-btc

Wie kann man sich für für so was hergeben und Werbung machen

Plagiarism from Yobit campaign participant:

User: futureofbitcoin


Taken from: https://blockchain.wtf/cryptocurrency-blockchain/iota/

Impressionen vom combat-Teil der Taurion competition:

A Battle Royal took place between House Reubo and House Ephrati. The witnesses could see user vova fold like a tent against liquidx and HunterX from House Ephrati, who outnumbered vova with 21-17 units at the beginning and were left with 17 units remaining after the dust finally settled.