Provided they have sold to realise the loss...
Hate to harp on about TA again, but this was a terrible buy in point from the point of view of whoever made the 2.5 million USD purchase on the Stamp, just as it was when my short got called as Bitcoin powered through 820 and right up to 836 on the back of a similarly large whale buy-in surge.
This buy in, was the mad surge up. Whoever made these purchases is a fucking idiot who is totally incapable of reading the market or they were trying to instigate something which has failed to materialise. The market creeps back up, but where is the volume? There is none.
If I believed that Bitcoin was away to soar and I had 2.5 Million USD that I wanted to get into Bitcoin, I have seen much better opportunities than this in the past few days.
I bought several times on the way from $32 back down to $2. It was really difficult to convince my lizard brain that I was doing the right thing, because I just kept seeing loss after loss rack up on every trade.
I also had quite a lot of fiat tied up in orders from $2 all the way down to $0.05.
By traders logic pretty much every trade I made for 6 months solid made me a "fucking idiot" because I bought coins that I could have got for much cheaper if I'd waited. I also subsequently failed to deploy all my fiat at the bottom. I then had to buy coins for far more than $2 on the way back up. These hard lessons amongst others received trading a wide variety of other instruments, teach you what the reality of trading is. Every post you make (like the OP here) fills me with a kind of anti-nostalgia. Non-fondly remembering saying, doing, feeling all the things you describe. I know I can't (reliably enough to be consistently profitable) read the market. I know most people can't. Maybe you can though, props to you.
Over that six months, when the price just kept going down, there were countless people just like you. They all extolled the profitability of shorting, how stupid I was for buying, holding was foolish bitcoin was dying etc etc
There arguments were far more compelling then, you know before the US recognised it as a legitimate thing and China said that it was fine for people to have it, and also before major online retailers accepted it, and before it had a market cap in the billions. You could almost believe these people had a case for it going to zero. They were entitled to their opinions, and they certainly gave me pause for thought.
Now, 2 years on, people tell me how lucky I was. I'm not sure they understand risk.
You know what maybe I was lucky, I was lucky not to listen to all the trading "experts" and instead *invest* in a technology that I believed at the time would be a game changer. At the time it was harder to believe it, but I believed it. Thats also why it was cheaper. Thesedays its easier to believe, and as such is less risky, and as such is more expensive. The point that is lost on most people as that the high price is exactly the reason why it is lower risk, and not the contrary.
My assessment at the time was that it was a (very?) high risk investment, and so I didn't bet the farm, it didn't help I was on my ass at the time, but I knew to not buy any would be a big mistake. I'm not sure anyone at that time really considered that counter risk.
People still don't see/understand it to this day (not the people here on the whole, however 'bearish' they seem to be!). People are focused entirely on the possibility of losing their capital. They entirely ignore the fact that they might be *forced* to buy BTC later for much, much higher. These same people are quite happy to enter into negative EV situations in all sorts of ways.
It should be obvious that I am not saying you should bet the farm because DA MOON etc. You should look at how much you value that $100 though, what the chance of losing it all vs the chance of it becoming $1000 is, and how much you value that $1000. The chance of it becoming $10k how much you value that. This is all personal but give you a basic idea of your risk profile and thus how much as percentage of NW you are prepared to risk.
Of course I understand all of this has no bearing on trading, because you traders aren't in it for the big bucks. You are just riding the dopamine high in front of the oncoming train of despair. Thats a fact for ~99% of traders out there (how many traders are there? how many trading legends are there? do the math).
I thought you might be interested to know why I think HODL is better, what some of the though process is behind it (as opposed to it just being an idiotic meme thing to do - I do actually understand what I am doing and why I am doing it). My "enemy" is corruption, the abuse of capitalism etc random guys on the internet - not so much.
So you do whatever you wanna do, but whilst you might think I am "fucking idiot" for what I've done (or rather, not done), I think dismissing it as lucky is a bit puerile. I can assure you that I don't think you are a "fucking idiot". I think what you are doing is crazy, misguided and delusional, but people do all sorts of crazy things, and who am I to say they *shouldn't*
My advice remains buy and hold. (for the longest time)
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