Except for it not being a fact, its an opinion. Confusing fact and opinion explains a lot about how you reason.

Here is a fact: You post pony pics.
Here is an opinion: BTC might fail.

Saying BTC *will* fail shows a lack of basic understanding about the uncertain nature of the future. You aren't prescient, and if BTC "fails" it won't make you so retrospectively.

at various points in history, all of the above were once true.

"Nobody" wanting BTC right now does not mean nobody ever will.
Goods being priced in dollars now does not mean they always will be.

All bear posts state only one possible outcome, instead of accepting that the future is uncertain. My position in BTC absolutely re-enforces the fact that I don't assume its going to the moon, it assumes failure and insures me *just in case* it goes to the moon.

I suggest a possible future where bitcoin is used as internet cash and you find this somehow abhorrent!?


2/3 not bad!

time spent crafting submissions vs prize money - sorry to be so cold

I know there is very little I could do to increase my chances of winning. So I prefer to just watch and let fate take its toll.

if you guys all want me to enter I will, but bear in mind it just reduces the chance of you winning

"So it is now, so it will always be." seems to be your basic argument then?

I'm just as aware of the current situation as you are, but sometimes here on the speculation board, people speculate about the future!

tl;dr needs moar ponehs

That is correct, however BTC is also priced in GPB, EUR etc

You can argue that as the global currency everything is priced in USD. So GBP only buys you stuff because it has a dollar exchange rate. Its tenuous, but this is *your* logic...

Now the man in the street in the UK does not care about the USD value of his GBP. He just uses GBP.

Interestingly, if that same man travels to the USA, or to Europe. They convert their native currency to the local currency, so as they may transact, but in their head they typically do a quick reckoning whenever they see a local price to convert it to their native price so that they may get an intuitive understanding of what the local price actually means to them.

So the act of converting between one abstract currency to another is inherent. Now imagine the man in the street isn't on holiday, but has moved to the USA. How long before he starts thinking in dollars?

All of this demonstrates quite adequately that whilst your point that BTC has a dollar value is correct. What it also proves, which you won't like at all, is that if you consider the internet a "country" and BTC as its native currency (which is exactly what it is - read the white paper) then you have a situation where an economy will develop. That nascent economy has developed, whether you like it or not. You can argue from the rooftops that it is going to fail, but you cannot deny its existence.

The more you shout and the more the bitcoin economy develops, the more crazy you sound.

Quick to label everyone else as a retard, but not so quick that you manage to jump spectacularly to the wrong interpretation of what I posted.

One might almost think you are intentionally doing so. You are falling fall of "begin right on the internet" syndrome. It doesn't matter who is right, it matters *what* is right. Neither you nor I know the future of BTC. I am happy to admit that, because I am not trapped by the need to be right to validate myself.

Or did you really not understand my post?

you're sure about that?

quiet you! nobody wants to hear rational explanations

Not to mention the crazy idea that if I owned 100k coins that I bought at $100 each, I'd definitely not cash out 30% of them at a 200% gain to give me a cost basis of zero on the other 70k!!!

Yeah but nobody has a car/tv/telephone/computer...

Its printed because it has to be, because its the only way to keep things going. I think there is less malice behind QE than people might think. I believe that they are printing money because they have very little choice in the matter. I don't think *anyone* wants the dollar to fail, I'm just not sure that it can really be avoided. Running the presses has to happen so that the actual money supply can keep up with the electronic money that has been 'created' through interest payments, thats about as simple as it gets. Everything else is just complexity that masks that fundamental property of a system based on debt.

Not only that, but you have a problem with reading comprehension. Instead of guessing what I am doing, you can simply read what I actually posted in that thread. That 560k is one of many realities that could occur. Not being able to see that demonstrates that you're faillling at understanding the nature of reality.

That thread and several other posts I've made quite clearly explain what I do. They also caution others not to do anything rash as you suggest (SELL IT ALL froth froth) you've even got a screenshot of what I have bought this year

So you can clearly see the *reality* of the situation. I take measured risk investing in BTC when it looks undervalued because the market *price* is dropping (I started buying back in at around half off, and kept that up.) Its incredibly boring investing like this, and hugely non-intuitive which is why I don't expect you to get it.

Everyone knows you should buy low sell high, be greedy when others are fearful, buy when there is blood in the streets etc

Not many people actually know how, or do it when it comes to the crunch. Instead they are sheep, because its easier to go with the crowd. If I am wrong, the whole world will be quick to jump in and tell me how stupid I was. If I am right, the whole world will be quick to jump in and tell each other how unlucky they were and to reassure each other that I was just lucky and they were all the smart ones that just got cheated.

Read Taleb. If your school has it.

Whereas the US dollar is backed by the american dream!

Not being able able to separate price and value, is liking not being able to tell the difference between fantasy and reality.

Saying something stupid, then using that as a reason to call everyone else stupid only really points to one thing.

dumped? or calmly watched, as it got eaten, as planned (possibly by his friends, who are all part of act). you keep seeing what you want to see because for the last 6 months you have been calling "sell" and have never been wrong. yet.

quite a lot of people guessed both!

This is a fair counterpoint. I guess EW people would probably back it too. They would have all of this as part of a much larger wave which not only scales up vertically (price) but horizontally (time). Its an appealing premise because it sounds reasonable and likely. Do you think that the fear/greed cycle can really be avoided though? Do you think adoption will be that slow?

Perhaps the truth is somewhere in-between.

I agree, it might, but as for what I think - still never.

hehe, nice to have a consensus

plus you got the cool graphic to support it