The reward drop will impact the price even before it happens, since speculators will buy in preparation for the price increase.
What makes you think they arent already? Never said they aren't. But the effect is likely to be strongest around the time of the actual halving. I agree with this statement as well. The retail buying will be the strongest at the halving. |
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ASIC's are available to EVERYONE,just like a video card you need a few bucks,BUT,you don't need to know how to "build" anything(like a PC).Just buy it,setup the mining software & GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This IS for the layman & general public.It WILL secure the network like never before. The sky is falling,wtf is everyone on drugs  You don't seem to be able to read the above comments and actually address what they are saying. I am not trying to troll you, but some very valid points have been made and its like everyone seems to ignore it and then say, " ASIC's are available to EVERYONE,just like a video card you need a few bucks,BUT,you don't need to know how to "build" anything(like a PC).Just buy it,setup the mining software & GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!". To make it clear, the argument against ASIC is that is will centralize the network over time because people will quit when it is not profitable AND an agency (gov) could easily come in and purchase enough capacity to pull off the 51% attack (their pockets are much deeper and it would be just a trickle in the bucket for them). This is what you should address first before the quote from you I quoted. Sincerely, D |
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The sky is the limit...If BFL gets only 500 jalapeno orders look for a minimum hash rate increase of 1750Gh/s. Add in 10 rigs at 1000Gh/s and its not a pretty picture for mining difficulty.
CPU's made it an every mans game like tag, no equipment required. GPU's still lets every man with a few bucks to spend on a video card play, think snowboarding, without the gear and the lift ticket you can't play. ASIC's mean everyone who buys a special piece of hardware has a huge advantage over the average guy at home. So, You get your car and they get a helicopter to get to work.
If Joe the plumber cant make a few BTC he is not going to play and that is bad for BTC. Grandma is never going to buy into it then.
Environmentalists will see it as another way we waste natural resources on electricity.
For you conspiracy theory guys.. About $15 Million in BFL's for an "agency" buys over 500Th/s and messes with a $50million crypto-currency economy.
Changing the entry requirements to serious players only alters this bitcoin experiment in bad way
Well said +1 I tried to state this as well but I was flamed for being a GPU having hater. No one wants to talk about this reality. At this point it seems to be a forgone conclusion and we will just need to sit back and watch. The senior developers like Gavin really need to weigh in, I am still surprised we have heard nothing except an off-hand tweet calling the Jally "cool". D |
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He's not Atlas, because he claims to be Atlas.
Where's Matthew when you need him? Counter trolling is in order!
I am not sure who either of those ppl are ... but I can tell you who I am! I am the bitcoinica hacker lmfaooaooaoaoa I wonder if his account did get hacked? |
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I think this looks to be a balanced approach. I little priority and some random luck. Thank you for listening to us. We are trying to just bust your proverbial "balls" for no reason. We want to support a great company, community and concept (the bitcoin) all at once. So that means a little compromise from all of us and working together and most important, communicating. Thank you.
Dalkore
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We just need more open communication like this and BFL being clear about what they can. Because they are the "best in breed", its more like a partnership because we are all in it together from Oct going forward until something else comes along. I am still moving forward in mining, the rules have changed but that happens.
Dalkore
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Thank you so much.  |
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So wait.... I can't just trade in either my 50 Singles for a new ASIC Mini-Rig ? or my 2 current Mini-Rigs for a brand new ASIC Mini-Rig ? ...WITHOUT any additional money ? WTF ? Where's the 100% ! ? ! ?  The 100% is once you meet the policy's terms. Yes you have to purchase more to upgrade but on the traded in singles or whathaveyou, you get 100% of the value of that unit. I am glad for this clarification and that has now cleared up the last piece I needed to finish my Offering Statement for our IPO. Regardless of my opinion which many of you have read, this is the reality and either you move forward or not. I am moving forward and going to try this technology out from BFL. I hope they have read through many of these debates and realize the influence they have and make it a level playing field for us even though they have the advantage on hardware. Some idea on if they are going to stagger initial orders so let us have a smooth roll-out and ramp up, would be really helpful to all the miners out there. Thanks Dalkore |
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What makes you think btc price will increase?
The reward drop. It's not a guarantee, but it will help the price to go up. I tend to agree with this statement as well. People hoarding BTC is another factor so the supply of coins for people wanted to enter the market will be more limited so they will have to place higher bids to get the BTC they want. That would be shown in price appreciation. |
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I don't see the big deal with this as other manufacturers are sure to move in if there's so much profit to be made there. Though is it possible to patent something like 'ASIC SHA-256 hashing' in general, so nobody else is even legally allowed to compete? That could be disastrous for Bitcoin as BFL could then have >51% at any time, and nobody would be legally allowed to challenge it by producing their own ASICs. I assume this isn't a potential problem though, or somebody would have mentioned it already?
The problem I see here is that the increase is so great and the mechanics of Bitcoin, there won't be too much profit motive to get into ASIC once the first products gets out, especially with the large cap-ex investment in development. I don't think we will see a competitor for this in plain words. |
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Sorry peeps. There is no such thing as safe high-yield investments.
You won't know difficulty beforehand with certainty. Deal with it.
You are correct sir. |
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maybe they will only sell the coffee warmers at first to slowly ramp up the difficulty rather than release the 1TH units straight away.
This would be the best scenario and if they made that policy, it would make me feel much better. You might be wrong thinking that would be the best scenario. If BFL will slowly but constantly ramp their sales, people will constantly be misguided about the speed at which difficulty will go up, so they will buy "too many" asics and risk to all make losses. The best scenario is that BFL makes their production and delivery schedule public. Simply state we will sell no more than x TH over the next Y months. Then, and only then can potential customers make a somewhat informed purchase decision. I say somewhat, because of course any other asic coming to market or mining in the dark could still kill them. I stand corrected, THIS would be the best case scenario. |
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maybe they will only sell the coffee warmers at first to slowly ramp up the difficulty rather than release the 1TH units straight away.
This would be the best scenario and if they made that policy, it would make me feel much better. |
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There is nothing wrong with only one company developing ASICs right now for 2 reasons.
1. We don't know when a second company will come up with their own ASIC.
2. ASIC is the natural evolution from FPGA, and it would take a lot of luck and great coincidence to have 2 different companies develop or release ASICs at the same time, it's logical that one company will be the first and the only one for a while, before other companies step in.
Regarding having only a few MegaMiners, these are smart and successful business men (if they have the money to invest) and they will be interested in making a profit.
This is where it gets interesting, the more trust there is in Bitcoin, the more people use it and the more the price of each Bitcoin goes up, thus if the people with 1TH rigs start messing about, then they are destroying their own wealth.
Also you'll be surprised how many people around the world are more than happy to make $500 per year from mining, I think the $150 unit will sell in enough quantities to make Bitcoin well decentralized.
Ice_chill - Thank you. I understand your point of view. |
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GPU and FPGA cockroaches are running for the cover and demanding a fork to protect their hides. How hilarious!
Here is a news for you. You can make that fork yourself right now, no need to beg any devs. Just pledge a 50 BTC bounty and someone will make that fork for ya. So stop whining and do the fork I dare you.
The rest of us will stay with Bitcoin that will enjoy Exahashes of hashing power securing it's transactions.
BTW. Consider applying for Whiner in Chief job at RIAA, they will surely understand your angst.
+1. ASIC is the only thing that can give the Bitcoin network enough security to save guard it from Governmental and Institutional attacks that would use CPU and GPU based Supercomputers. Why do you assume the attack isn't already in the works? What I am saying is that one of the effective ways to attack Bitcoin is from within. The code does not allow "from withing" attacks. Meta: Not sure where the "g" came from. I'll assume you meant "within". Back to your point, use your imagination a little more. This announcement pushes the bar so high that there is effective no company that is going to step-up to make the investment in developing their own custom chip (ASIC). So the centralization issue is two-fold. One, being that only a single company will be effectively supplying all the hashing power for Bitcoin until we have a true competitor. Second, being that the profits for mining that were and are more decentralized at this moment, will now go to the miners that will make the capital investment to keep up with this new hashing power cold war. Not at first but give it a little time as more large units ship out, the difficultly will increase to keep up and eventually you will only have a few mega miners that can have operations that are profitable enough to keep them mining (ie: incentive). Now you have two more points of attack along with the exchanges to really give Bitcoin a lot of hassle. I am not sure what the answer is at this point, I would like to have Gavin or other core developers weigh on this. To try and ignore that this could be a potential issue is disingenuous. |
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GPU and FPGA cockroaches are running for the cover and demanding a fork to protect their hides. How hilarious!
Here is a news for you. You can make that fork yourself right now, no need to beg any devs. Just pledge a 50 BTC bounty and someone will make that fork for ya. So stop whining and do the fork I dare you.
The rest of us will stay with Bitcoin that will enjoy Exahashes of hashing power securing it's transactions.
BTW. Consider applying for Whiner in Chief job at RIAA, they will surely understand your angst.
+1. ASIC is the only thing that can give the Bitcoin network enough security to save guard it from Governmental and Institutional attacks that would use CPU and GPU based Supercomputers. Why do you assume the attack isn't already in the works? What I am saying is that one of the effective ways to attack Bitcoin is from within. |
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At the very least the single is worth $599 for a future trade in. Plus 4-6 months of waiting/mining time, which is about 15 BTC per month.
This adds up to roughly around 150-180BTC at today's rates.
4-6 months?which is 120-180days? The leading time is around 50-70days right now I can offer $660, He was refering to how long you would earn bitcoins from the unit before asic trade-ins become available. You will need to also make an additional purchase equaling the amount of trade-up you want, per there policy to the best of my knowledge. |
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Yes, this is true. My question is, why should miners drive off a cliff if they know one is approaching? Ive been looking for a good analogy to help explain this, like something in game theory, but I havent found anything. Its really a quite interesting situation by itself, and I cant believe its unique, but the closest analogy one Ive found, is the well known dollar auction; its quite different in many aspects, but the parallel is that in both cases, there is a large potential profit to be made, yet anyone participating in the game, even rational actors, are forced to behave in way that is irrational and leads to individual losses for everyone, except the seller who makes a windfall profit. Now if everyone truly understood this, BFL would hardly sell anything. But the reality is that a lot, if not most potential customers dont fully understand this, and price/difficulty will be determined by those that understand this least. And heck, even if everyone understood it, there would be some willing to bet they were one of very few taking the risk and therefore think they will still come out on top. Seeing how many gamblers we have, thats probably a LOT of people . Wonderful example. There is another zero-sum game that comes to mind. Its in a book in my library, let me see if I can find it online, if not, I will just type it up. |
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Insufficient data for a meaningful answer.  What's the base unit for the calculation? They're incompatible. Also Bitcoin is immaterial, I can't compare 1 kg of bitcoins with 1 kg of human slaves. Why do we have to weigh them? |
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Good thing nobody has considered the drop in price of Bitcoins that will happen almost immediately after the ASICs arrive... Remember that this economy is based solely on the supply demand aspect, and bringing so many coins in at once is going to plummet prices. It's like what would happen to let's say the US dollar if the government sent every household $5,000... The price massively deflates as the supply increases.
Supply is 50BTC/10minutes now, and 25BTC/10minutes sometime around December, regardless of hashrate. You don't have clue one when the hash rate increases so does the supply of BTC, if the blocks are being solved every six minutes then you have 500BTC an hour being produced rather than the normal targeted 300BTC. The reverse is also true when you have a diff drop you have less than the 300 per hour being produced. And this means all things being even, difficulty would increase or drop by whatever percentage beyond the intended 300 BTC per hour (6 blocks). You have to keep this in mind when we try and build this conceptual model of "what the world is going to be like with ASIC (like going from 286's to Pentium II). I have spent so many hours playing out different scenarios in my head. |
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