Red bounces off yellow at halvings; as Maxwell Smart would say, "ah yes, the old supply shock trick!"

Zooming in, with the linear chart:

Yeah, "consolidation" is a good word for it.  Sideways to slightly bearish.   I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection coming true, but if it does come true, it would be great for trading.  There will be the usual volatility to trade, but no big trend to lose out on if you happen to be out of the market, or get your face ripped off because you have too much leverage.
Also, ideal for the conservative-minded who likes to patiently stack sats.

Been there, done that.

The red curve on the big chart shows bitcoin's centered 100 week geometric mean.  A transform revealed an apparent sine pattern in the geomean, seen in the upper corner chart.  The yellow sine wave is my best fit.
The lower corner chart converts back into price domain and extrapolates the sine wave.  Indication:  we might have a couple of years of bearish action, but not a dire crypto winter.

Pale blue trace = 100 week geometric mean of bitcoin’s price


Slide the geomean 150 weeks up its trend line


Performing a mean is similar in principle to integration, which puts you a quarter cycle out of phase. Sliding the geomean three quarters of a cycle (a little less than three years) puts it back in phase and gives you a rough extrapolation of support for bitcoin price’s historic response to the halvings, which follows a step function.



zooming in, projected support

Big chart
To get the red trendline, I ran a quadratic regression with time as a function of price, then solved the quadratic to yield price as a linear function of the square root of time. Yellow is the 100 week geometric mean, adjusted to follow the trendline.
Small chart
Running the square root trendline through the quadratic regression function sets the red trendline to days elapsed, linear.  Price and geomean likewise.
Then subtracting the geomean from the price gives the oscillator, in green.  Dark brown and pale blue lines trace the oscillator's lows and highs.
Big chart again
Oscillator high and low traces translated to the price domain.

The oscillator between 600 and 1000 historically is bubble territory.  The early spike in 2013 and the recent ATH both came in around 600.  I think the question now is whether the market goes manic and beats 600 this halving cycle.  There's no reason it has to.

Paintings are hung.
Men are hanged.

Well, the previous cycle tops blew off at the red line, this time $191k.
That's one scenario; a different scenario has the early top already in, and late-cycle highs hewing much closer to the triangle base.
I don't identify as "non-binary."  This is a quantum scenario where both eventualities exist in tandem.
Wan't to know if the cat inside the box is licking its ass or what is it doing?  You'll just have to wait, like the rest of us.

And this chart isn't s2f.  I used quadratic regression:  the yellow, monotonic historic trend.  It just happens that the attractors came out almost the same in both models.

I think we should break the blue line, but it might take a couple of years to get there.
Previous cycles had early booms that crossed above the blue, then bitcoin's price fell and crossed the yellow regression line south of the blue, then rose into the late-cycle triangle.
In the current cycle, the early boom fell short of the blue.

We may top $100k and settle down somewhere between $70k and $80k this cycle.
https://hardworkandlowpay.wordpress.com/2021/07/19/s2f-redux/

Went back and looked at PlanB's original 2019 stock-to-flow paper.  Here is the chart I generated when I tried to replicate his math.  You should ignore the curve before the first halving, it's kind of arbitrary, depends on what you set as a starting date.  I used pizza day, but it doesn't really matter because the choice of starting day has no effect on anything after the first halving on November 28, 2012; that stuff is set in stone once you settle on your parameters.  I used PlanB's original equation,
ln(marketcap) = 3.31954 * ln(stock/flow) + 14.6227
Anyway, if there's anything to this s2f stuff, the next year or two should cheer us up.

Bitcoin's logarithmic price data, 2010 to now, with quadratic regression line.
The King of Coins is acting uncharacteristically timid, sticking to the historic price trend like peanut butter to the roof of a dog's mouth.

The blue line shows how the price of bitcoin has changed over the years.  From pennies to $36,000.
Price is seemingly so unpredictable that it's hard to know when to buy and when to sell.  
But it's apparent that bitcoin's price goes up and down through waves that are synchronized with the halvings.
If you analyze and quantify those waves, you might have a guide.

Look at the corner chart.  The sine waves have a period equal to the halving.  
You'll notice that the geometric mean (yellow) on the corner chart looks like a sine wave.  I fit an actual sine function to the geomean.
The recent halving took 1402 days.  I set the period of the sine wave at 1400 days.  The geometric mean of 100 weeks spans one half period.
The sine function can be extrapolated to provide a guide for future trading.
In the past, the green and red lines showed a pattern of buying and selling opportunities through bitcoin's history.
Extrapolate the pattern.  Now you have a guide for when to buy and when to sell.
When bitcoin's price goes near the green line, buy.  If the price dips below the green line, load your truck. Borrow, use leverage, get as much btc as you can.
The red line serves as a warning zone, you should consider getting out of the market or at least lighten your bags.

Your wish is my command.

quadratic regression on the logarithmic scale indicates $76k
There's an app a chart for that ha ha