Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.
This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.
Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?
I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.
I usually plug any new cash into three categories: Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips. So you have to decide how to apportion the amount that you have. Sounds like you already have some allocated to buying on dips, so you would have to decide if you want to plug more into that category and the other two categories.
The total of what you do has a lot to do with your particulars and it is NOT only about your views about BTC as compared with other assets, you consider your ongoing cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your time, skills and abilities to tweak along the way.
Of course, opinions are all over the place in regards to whether the bottom is already in or the top is already in and so many other variations, so how you invest can really become a very close impression of yourself and your views and how much you might hedge for a variety of possibilities while still being happy if the price moved against your hedging in one direction or another, so in the end, if you set up your amounts correctly, then you should not really have BIG concerns about if the BTC price goes up or down because you are taking advantage of its movement no matter what.
Basically if I finish my buys at the current price I think I would be happy. But of course if the price crashes again 30% then I might not feel that way. I have already some buy orders for up to a 15% drop from here.
So if you already pretty much have everything in place, but you believe that there might be a 20-30% chance that price could drop another 30% then you might have to allocate a small amount to that rather than totally buying at the current prices, which is making you happy except for the relatively small area that you are not prepared....
So since you mentioned getting .66BTC.. that would be around $23k. So let's say that instead of spending $23k at current prices, you spend $18k at current prices, and then you set up buy orders with the remaining $5k at various locations that would make you feel satisfied on outlier scenarios.
Sure, I might be suggesting to hold back too much, so maybe you might only hold back $2k to $3k for such additional down scenarios because you are largely already inclined to put it all in at this price - but you do have some concerns about possible further drops.
Of course, if the BTC price does not go down, and instead it shoots up $10k from here then you can plan for those kinds of scenarios too...even if you would end up getting less BTC in such a scenario that BTC shot up $10k.
No matter what, there is no easy answer, but you can get some ideas regarding tweaking the proportions and maybe NOT feeling great in any of the scenarios that you think through, but in the end, you realize that you did the best that you could at the time that you set the orders including making some contingency plans to revisit the matter under the actual scenarios that end up playing out.
By the way, in around 2016, I used to tweak my set ups a lot more along the way, but with the passage of time, I learned that I did NOT really like tweaking so often because it drains me, so I would usually just set it and then just let it play out and usually I do have some retweaking that is just part of the ongoing plan anyhow, so if sell orders get filled I end up manually setting buy orders after the sell orders fill and the opposite is true if the buy orders fill then I end up manually setting up sell orders after the buy orders fill.... so sometimes the retweaking can just be built into the system, so that if just one or two buy orders fill, then that would cause me to tweak differently as compared with 5-6 buy orders or even more getting filled (vice versa is true, also).. So sometimes, I tell myself that I am not even going to think about the matter until after orders get filled in one direction or the other...and sometimes I will put them far apart on purpose, so that I do not have to think about it unless the BTC price moves even further in one direction or another in order to force me to detach myself from any noise in between the set levels.
Sorry that it can be a bit long and confusing, but I also might have additional great cushions that I put in place if I accidentally make a mistake in one direction or another or for example, if I am setting an order to buy at $32k, for example, but I accidentally end up buying at market price ($36k), then it might cause me to say fuck it and I don't set anymore buy orders unless the BTC price goes down to $30k, but it might cause me to set an additional sell order at $40k rather than $42k and then once the sell order executes at $40k, then i can set the buy order at $32k.. and of course, the combination of the orders can prioritize stacking more sats or stacking more fiat depending on my then inclinations... and I understand at this time, you aesma, are more inclined to be stacking sats rather than stacking fiat because you had felt that you had overdone your fiat stacking.. so you want to move the needle back in the other direction towards having a bit higher allocation in sats... .so in that sense, maybe all of your sell orders end up being very small but your buy orders tend to use higher portions of your fiat that is generated and sometimes if you are not paying attention, then you can start to become way more imbalanced on the opposite side as you had been earlier.. so then all of a sudden you feel that you have too many sats and not enough dollars.... so you gotta start to shave those sats off, once you reach that point.
I kind of learned my lesson about that in late 2017, so I had been buying back way too many sats during the drop from $20k, so after that time, I learned to spread my buy back orders a bit larger quantities so that I feel more comfortable, and less likely to run out of money if the BTC price continues to drop. In the end, the important thing is that I feel better, and I give no shits about how some other guy in this thread would feel about if I have too many sats or too many dollars.
Just like a few months ago, I had buy orders going down to $9k, and I felt good about that. I had some guys here say that I should cancel those orders, and I did not. However, I had some changes in my circumstances that did cause me to cancel my orders between about $9k and $13k, and it is likely that I will be cancelling some more buy orders between $13k and higher numbers that are yet to be determined.. maybe even up; to $20k depending on both how near term prices move but also in terms of how much money I am going to need for some projects that I am figuring out the details including some bills coming due in the near future.
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