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quick poll. hands up those people who lost BTC recently by holding?
...@....
SO you're telling me if you hold your Bitcoins you never lose. Maybe true, but I never said this wasn't true. This would've also been true if you bought the S&P 500 stocks in 1950 and held it till today (you would've actually made many times your money back). Does that mean this is the best strategy you could've made? Does that mean you made the most returns in the world? I'm just saying you can gain EVEN MORE by just using your common sense to take advantage of volatility (opportunities). I'm sorry you are so dumb you can't even give good arguments. I'm not answering your crap anymore. If you don't understand something does that make it dumb? You got tantalisingly close to grasping it but couldn't quite make the mental leap. The corollary to the question I asked is 'hands up those people who lost BTC trading?'. Of course you probably don't understand why that is important so I will explain. The reason I didn't ask that question, is because everyone will tell you about the trade they won, not many people will tell you about the losses. That goes for this board, for wall st traders, for poker players, the guy in the bookies betting on the nags, the old lady on the slots in vegas and every other risk/reward scenario in the world. Its an innate feature of human psychology regarding loss aversion. Gamble for enjoyment by all means, but never kid yourself you will win (in the long term) unless you are the house. See you keep making all these posts about how smart you are, and then also making all these posts that demonstrate you are as thick as two short planks, and need everything explaining to you in terms a 12 year old will understand. You aren't interested in understanding any viewpoint other than your own. You keep reframing your argument in ways to prove how right *you* are and how everyone else is wrong. Your posts reek of insecurity and a need to prove how smart *you* are. You aren't even interested in arguing the matter at hand, just your personal standing. I don't care if I am wrong about which way BTC is headed, I just execute trades based on rationality, sane risk/reward, and preservation of capital. I don't care how smart or great people think I am, it doesn't really matter in the end. If I say some dumb ass shit, I expect to get pulled on it, and I'll think about what I said and come back stronger. Here is an example. I used to think I could trade, then I found out I couldn't then I found out that nobody could. TA is apophenia, a chart can be found to retrospectively justify any trade. Statistics quite handily demonstrate why there are trading legends. The people that 'can' trade are lucky. Sometimes a heads comes up 100 times in a row. At any second you could lose it all. Whereas you by your own admission, have no skin in the game, but need to come on a forum and tell people what they should be doing, even though you don't even understand the basic concept of risk/reward. Have a deluded idea that you can somehow predict that $1200 was the sell point even though it could have been anywhere from $80. Don't seem to grasp, despite having had it explained to you countless times over, that if the trade goes wrong you can incur significant losses. Markets are primed to screw traders. The bitcoin market is primed to utterly destroy you. If you knew the first thing about the concept of anti-fragility, or hedging against black swan events then you would shrink into a corner embarrassed at how naive your view of things is. I apologised before because I thought maybe I was being too harsh. Your flippant response to that demonstrates material immaturity and an abhorrent personality flaw that is really going to screw you up in life at some point. I realise now I wasn't being too harsh but too kind. You are a child that needs grow the f' up. Sure you might catch a few good 'trades' on the way. When it all comes crashing down and you are crying in the ashes of your own ruin maybe then you will feel the humility necessary to count yourself as 'human'. Please do stick to your word and don't even bother trying to respond. You'll just embarrass yourself even further. I can't stop laughing. I've read Nassim Taleb's books as well. Not only that but I've been following him on Facebook for the past 4 years or so. You're not saying anything new to me. Not only that but I have a degree in finance from a very reputable school. Not only that, but I have actually come up with my own model of pricing non-dividents paying European options that my professor couldn't find a flaw in. You want me to continue? I'm not trying to brag about anything, I just want to make a point once and for all that I know the "Finance" and trading topic very very well. It seems it's you who doesn't want to have an open minded view about what I'm trying to say. What you fail to see is that all the things you've been reading on Black Swans and "randomness" sure exist, but u fail to see how unrelated my original post is to those events. IF ANYTHING, holding your investment for an extended period of time would have a much higher probability for you to experience those events and lose a big share of your investment. Mature markets behave in a certain way, and new ones in quiet a different way. I don't think you fully grasped the content of the last couple of books you've read. And for your info Nassim Taleb was a big speculator himself, he was betting that the market will crash for the most part of his life (the fat tails of a normal distribution) and made it in 2008. If you want to talk more about that I'll be happy to do it in person, check your inbox for my Skype ID. But I think things have gone way to far here.... Do not risk it all to gain little. Risk little to gain lots. He made his money with options designed to pay off big when unpredictable stuff happened, which it inevitably did, not by trying to time the market. Are you sure your read his books. Do you understand that whilst you are trying to capture small gains by trading in and out there is a chance that the market will suddenly and very unpredictably move massively against you. When you read stuff you are supposed to understand it for what it says, not just make it fit your pre-conceived view. I knw that very well But what Nassim labeled as "Randomness" wasn't actually absolute randomness. Randomness doesn't exist in this world. There are scientists who would argue it does exist on a sub-atomic level, but in our physical world it doesn't. What Nassim labeled as randomness is merely the inability of human brain capacity to predict certain complex events. For me the move that happened after the Chinese government's announcement wasn't a complex event that couldn't be predicted, but merely an action-reaction phenomena. You can argue that this could be the case 99% of the time and then there's 1% chance a black swan would occur and the market would move in a way that is different to what I predicted. Fair enough, but I'm willing to take this chance myself. And I believe if you take this chance in a new and volatile market like that of Bitcoin, even if you are proven wrong in rare circumstances you'd still make a decent return (may not be true for mature markets as I said). Are we on the same page now? |
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I should've opened a topic saying "You guys are awesome, for all those holding up to your Bitcoins, keep up the good work", and I would've got praised like a God. You just want me to feed your ego so that "I make sense"?
I've seen the dumbest of topics in this forum applauding Bitcoin holders get the most praise in the world. If you guys can't grasp a topic in an open minded way I rest my case.
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quick poll. hands up those people who lost BTC recently by holding?
...@....
SO you're telling me if you hold your Bitcoins you never lose. Maybe true, but I never said this wasn't true. This would've also been true if you bought the S&P 500 stocks in 1950 and held it till today (you would've actually made many times your money back). Does that mean this is the best strategy you could've made? Does that mean you made the most returns in the world? I'm just saying you can gain EVEN MORE by just using your common sense to take advantage of volatility (opportunities). I'm sorry you are so dumb you can't even give good arguments. I'm not answering your crap anymore. If you don't understand something does that make it dumb? You got tantalisingly close to grasping it but couldn't quite make the mental leap. The corollary to the question I asked is 'hands up those people who lost BTC trading?'. Of course you probably don't understand why that is important so I will explain. The reason I didn't ask that question, is because everyone will tell you about the trade they won, not many people will tell you about the losses. That goes for this board, for wall st traders, for poker players, the guy in the bookies betting on the nags, the old lady on the slots in vegas and every other risk/reward scenario in the world. Its an innate feature of human psychology regarding loss aversion. Gamble for enjoyment by all means, but never kid yourself you will win (in the long term) unless you are the house. See you keep making all these posts about how smart you are, and then also making all these posts that demonstrate you are as thick as two short planks, and need everything explaining to you in terms a 12 year old will understand. You aren't interested in understanding any viewpoint other than your own. You keep reframing your argument in ways to prove how right *you* are and how everyone else is wrong. Your posts reek of insecurity and a need to prove how smart *you* are. You aren't even interested in arguing the matter at hand, just your personal standing. I don't care if I am wrong about which way BTC is headed, I just execute trades based on rationality, sane risk/reward, and preservation of capital. I don't care how smart or great people think I am, it doesn't really matter in the end. If I say some dumb ass shit, I expect to get pulled on it, and I'll think about what I said and come back stronger. Here is an example. I used to think I could trade, then I found out I couldn't then I found out that nobody could. TA is apophenia, a chart can be found to retrospectively justify any trade. Statistics quite handily demonstrate why there are trading legends. The people that 'can' trade are lucky. Sometimes a heads comes up 100 times in a row. At any second you could lose it all. Whereas you by your own admission, have no skin in the game, but need to come on a forum and tell people what they should be doing, even though you don't even understand the basic concept of risk/reward. Have a deluded idea that you can somehow predict that $1200 was the sell point even though it could have been anywhere from $80. Don't seem to grasp, despite having had it explained to you countless times over, that if the trade goes wrong you can incur significant losses. Markets are primed to screw traders. The bitcoin market is primed to utterly destroy you. If you knew the first thing about the concept of anti-fragility, or hedging against black swan events then you would shrink into a corner embarrassed at how naive your view of things is. I apologised before because I thought maybe I was being too harsh. Your flippant response to that demonstrates material immaturity and an abhorrent personality flaw that is really going to screw you up in life at some point. I realise now I wasn't being too harsh but too kind. You are a child that needs grow the f' up. Sure you might catch a few good 'trades' on the way. When it all comes crashing down and you are crying in the ashes of your own ruin maybe then you will feel the humility necessary to count yourself as 'human'. Please do stick to your word and don't even bother trying to respond. You'll just embarrass yourself even further. I can't stop laughing. I've read Nassim Taleb's books as well. Not only that but I've been following him on Facebook for the past 4 years or so. You're not saying anything new to me. Not only that but I have a degree in finance from a very reputable school. Not only that, but I have actually come up with my own model of pricing non-dividents paying European options that my professor couldn't find a flaw in. You want me to continue? I'm not trying to brag about anything, I just want to make a point once and for all that I know the "Finance" and trading topic very very well. It seems it's you who doesn't want to have an open minded view about what I'm trying to say. What you fail to see is that all the things you've been reading on Black Swans and "randomness" sure exist, but u fail to see how unrelated my original post is to those events. IF ANYTHING, holding your investment for an extended period of time would have a much higher probability for you to experience those events and lose a big share of your investment. Mature markets behave in a certain way, and new ones in quiet a different way. I don't think you fully grasped the content of the last couple of books you've read. And for your info Nassim Taleb was a big speculator himself, he was betting that the market will crash for the most part of his life (the fat tails of a normal distribution) and made it in 2008. If you want to talk more about that I'll be happy to do it in person, check your inbox for my Skype ID. But I think things have gone way to far here.... |
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JayB, please let us know: should we sell now? Yes or not? If yes - where should we place our bids?
Answer that and prove you can consistently beat the market or you are just a troll.
You too, don't get my point. I never said I am an investment guru that never loses money. Spotting an opportunity doesn't mean I can give you a failure proof advice for the rest of your life. This could've been a one time opportunity, but it was clear to me then that it was an opportunity to be taken advantage of. All the factors were pointing out that money could be made when it happened, and I'm glad some users too advantage of it. |
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quick poll. hands up those people who lost BTC recently by holding?
...@....
SO you're telling me if you hold your Bitcoins you never lose. Maybe true, but I never said this wasn't true. This would've also been true if you bought the S&P 500 stocks in 1950 and held it till today (you would've actually made many times your money back). Does that mean this is the best strategy you could've made? Does that mean you made the most returns in the world? I'm just saying you can gain EVEN MORE by just using your common sense to take advantage of volatility (opportunities). I'm sorry you are so dumb you can't even give good arguments. I'm not answering your crap anymore. |
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I sold. For sure. Sold at $1107. Bought back in at $690. Missed the bottom in both directions, but was happy to get SIXTY PERCENT MORE coins than what I had on Friday! WooT!
Dude congratulations for being one of the smartest users on the forum. This is exactly what I've been trying to explain to them all along and there you come and prove me right! Thank you dude, thank you! And for those who think this is gambling...well for sure you don't know what you're talking about. Actually I would argue that holding your Bitcoins after the announcement would've been more gambling! Most speculators lose money. Thing is you're not getting the point. The ones speculating are the ones who didn't sell while it was going down. Why? because you were speculating that the price will go up again. <-- this is speculating by itself. Selling after the announcement was a safer strategy. |
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I sold. For sure. Sold at $1107. Bought back in at $690. Missed the bottom in both directions, but was happy to get SIXTY PERCENT MORE coins than what I had on Friday! WooT!
Dude congratulations for being one of the smartest users on the forum. This is exactly what I've been trying to explain to them all along and there you come and prove me right! Thank you dude, thank you! And for those who think this is gambling...well for sure you don't know what you're talking about. Actually I would argue that holding your Bitcoins after the announcement would've been more gambling! |
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Am I missing anything here?
It seems all you want to do is just defend the position of Bitcoin without being rational about it or having an open minded discussion. You believe in Bitcoin, fine that's great! Good for you! I hope you'll get rich because of it. But this topic has nothing to do with what you believe in the long term or about Bitcoin. Right?
Sorry, your topic asked why we didn't sell. I communicated as such? If you don't sell because you believe it will be much more than it is today why does that not count? Because even if you do believe that it'll be worth more than what it is today you could've still sold at 1,200 and bought back at 700. That's my whole argument. You're not closing your position in Bitcoin, you're just enhancing your position by taking advantage of volatility. |
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Most of us have been where the OP is wondering how no one is seeing what we are seeing.
Then we try.... sure we catch a few get trades but after a few months we realize that we would be near the same place if we had done nothing besides buying and holding
OK, I admit I am being a bit harsh on OP. Here is the thing the question as its phrased is black and white. OP suggests you can predict where the top is (or near enough), that you can know that after that top there will be a significant enough selloff such that it was worth selling, that you can predict where the short term bottom is (or near enough) to be able to rebuy. He fails to see that if this doesn't go 100% to plan then you could very well end up in a worse position, and fails to see just how unlikely it is that it will go 100% to plan. All that stuff seems pretty obvious to me, which is why I get a bit cranky when people suggesting not selling is a bad decision, because there was some outside chance that I could have profited from a lucky trade. I forgive you. Thing is, we all agree the market dynamics of a Bitcoin is very different than that of stocks in a mature market. Right? Here's something that is obviously happening to Bitcoin value: It is so volatile that its value is changing by a magnitude of 40 - 50% to either negative or positive news. Right? My argument was that volatility is something that can be taken advantage of, which is in the scenario I have proposed. I gave other reasons as to why this scenario would not work, but it seems you guys dismissed all of them and only focused on the initial one. Most of you told me that you either couldn't find a seller or that you were afraid you couldn't buy it back. Well guess what that satisfies the second scenario I've laid down which suggest that market illiquidity could be a factor. Some other said because you can't predict. Well there's nothing to predict here. I clearly said "after the news came out", is there any prediction to be made here? value of a Bitcoin was certainly going down. That's like a company announcing that it didn't meet its targets for a specific quarter. In how many directions could its stock value go right after the news? ONLY ONE --> Down Am I missing anything here? It seems all you want to do is just defend the position of Bitcoin without being rational about it or having an open minded discussion. You believe in Bitcoin, fine that's great! Good for you! I hope you'll get rich because of it. But this topic has nothing to do with what you believe in the long term or about Bitcoin. Right? |
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ITT someone with no bitcoin tells everyone they should have sold at $1200 *after* the fact.
Obvious troll is obvious.
So you have no right to give your opinion regarding airplanes unless you own an airplane? this is what your logic is telling me. Experts regarding subject matters don't need to own the thing they are experts on...just giving you some facts about life On top of that...I never told you what to do. I'm asking a question. See my sentence has a question mark at the end. Gosh... You are an idiot? In an absolute or a relative sense? I would say I am an idiot in the eyes of an absolute one. If you didn't get it, don't worry you're not expected to. |
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Make sure your trading strategy is tight; go in with a plan and don't trade on emotion.
Did you actually come up with that by yourself or did someone help you out? |
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ITT someone with no bitcoin tells everyone they should have sold at $1200 *after* the fact.
Obvious troll is obvious.
So you have no right to give your opinion regarding airplanes unless you own an airplane? this is what your logic is telling me. Experts regarding subject matters don't need to own the thing they are experts on...just giving you some facts about life On top of that...I never told you what to do. I'm asking a question. See my sentence has a question mark at the end. Gosh... |
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First I thought OP is experienced trader in BTC, now when knowing he doesn't even own coins this is a BS and noone new should listen to this, altough it sounds very simple and profitable.
Reading my initial post carefully you would've figured out I'm not an experienced trader in BTC. I wasn't tryina give you a lesson; I had a question mark at the end of my sentence suggesting I was asking a question.... Anyways I may not be an experienced BTC trader but I have good knowledge regarding financial markets since I did my studies there, but I'm more into theory than practice, and that's why I asked my question to get more insights into the matter. |
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Since the OP is feeling free to toss questions around, here's one for him.
You feel that your advice is such that you could be a bitcoin wealth adviser and yet, self-admitted, you owned no BTC when it topped over $1200. Why exactly is that? Didn't see it coming? You could've made lots of cash following your own advice there.
I have an idea, make yourself rich following your own advice (or go broke, which is more likely) then come back and try again.
Personally, I'll hold my bitcoins, spending a bit at each top I find attractive, meanwhile replacing what I spend by mining.
Thralen
I own no Bitcoins and in the part of the world where I live it's very hard to acquire them. The only way I could've acquired some is when it was economically feasible to mine it with ordinary laptops, but back then I wasn't aware of Bitcoin. Now with the current difficulty I don't think it can be done profitably (not with the equipment I have at least). Having said that, I try to give my own POV regarding Bitcoin matters since I'm interested in the topic itself, and try to gather some counter-arguments to mine. |
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You are one big fool gambling with your dad's savings.
You'd be better off opening a start-up with this money at least u'll learn something in the process even if you fail. Hell you can open 10 start-ups with this money and earn yourself a worthy experience instead of putting your money in Bitcoins.
Sure it can increase in value doesn't mean you did the right thing. You can as well gamble with your money in a casino and if you made money in the process doesn't mean you did the right thing is just means you got lucky.
Save yourself and your dad's wealth and find yourself a more honorable way of making money.
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Guys aren't you ashamed of always asking for tips and butt-kissing users who have an abundance of Bitcoins? What did this world come into  |
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#1, because I love making bad decisions and I made me rich  Good for you I hope you'll always be But you didn't give me a rational answer |
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So you agree with me? does my logic make sense to someone at least? :p As per my post linked above, logically it does make sense. I can say that I managed to actually execute the plan that is being described here and come out with more BTC after the crash BUT !!!!!! I can tell you this it was a very hair raising experience anticipating the right moments to buy and sell and agree that this method may work sometimes but repeated over and over could get you into trouble. Timing is EVERYTHING and VERY easily missed and these transactions of Buy/Sell take time to execute and in the mean time the market is marching on.. That my 2 cents worth  I agree! Thank you for your positive contribution to this thread The reasons why you can't sell on the spot is because volumes are not big enough yet for this market, and this was one question I had that I needed an answer for, so thanks for making it clearer to me...Cheers |
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I think there is a fairly obvious and quite simple reason that you are missing. Not everyone follows Bitcoin news and the exchange rate as closely as you do. Some people check in only occasionally or sporadically and ended up missing out.
Even more importantly, some individuals simply decided when they purchased their bitcoins to buy and hold, a very common investment strategy. Not everyone wants to be a daytrader.
No I'm not missing anything, in fact those two reasons, are included in the 4 reasons I mentioned... I just think an opportunity is being missed here..... |
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Good thing for who? Bad thing for who? specify your point of reference...
It's a good thing for smart people who know how to benefit from the swings, and bad for everyone else
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