Your post lost me at the point where you started to talk shit on bitcoin. You can talk shit on the price, but the technology? Think again. This is the future whether you like it or not. And until a better blockchain technology overtakes bitcoin(or dogecoin or otherwise), you can expect adoption to increase, userbase to increase, and thus the fundamental drivers behind the price to increase, gradually and constantly increasing buying pressure(and thus the price) (over the time frame of years, not day-to-day crashes or booms)

actually its supported by the actual trendline of bitcoin-
Year 1 of bitcoin it went from nothing to about $0.001
1 year later went to about $0.30 (a 300x increase)
another year later, it was about $6 (a 20x increase)

so I would say yeah, its supported by more than my imagination.

You have to understand that even a 4x annual growth rate, at some point, will be unsustainable (think if/when the market cap hits $1T+).


I have been thinking about a better model these past few weeks/months, I see it more as a decaying trendline of growth, (and just to give a ballpark idea, I'm guessing the trendline decays at around 30% growth rate per year).

ie: If it was growing at 20x annual growth rate in year one, then in
year 2: 14x
year 3: 9.8x
year 4: 6.9x
year 5: 4.8x
year 6: 3.4x
etc

you can do it by hand, its ln $378/1700
(ln as in the calculator function)

I'll try to keep this short post- I think about bitcoin (and the technology), a lot
It's fascinating to me how its going to change the world, from empowering the people in Argentina by allowing them a safer form of savings, to money transfers to Africa (as well as them having more secure and a cheap yet great form of banking there), to how we hold our funds while we travel.
And I look at what the price has done, it is mind-boggling to me that $1 invested in the first year would be worth over $1 million at its peak about 4 years later.
And I see I trend in all this, as the future comes present, we, as human beings, are given better and better investing opportunities.
It is rare in history to see a 1 million times increase (read: 100 million PERCENT) gain in 4 years. It is difficult to even compute.
That being said, I am wondering what the next big thing is. I believe if we saw a million percent return off a product created 5 years ago, that there is a product being created right now that has the potential to do even more. (Imagine that, a product being created right now, or maybe thats in its first year, that is going to absolutely boom in the next 4-5 years).
I believe this product lies in the digital realm of course, and I am strongly lead to believe it lies somewhere in this same category with crypto currencies and lenient-exchanges (like stock markets, but for the world, and with instant transfers, no regulation (or loose regulation, etc).
What do you guys think though, (and if you agree with me, what projects that you know of stand out to you?)

thank you, and once again thank you for your contribution in publishing this work

I have a lot of love for investing, wanting to share my knowledge, let me know what you think and thumbs up/share the video if you like it! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZXWKBWSHXo

Firstly, thank you for providing the statistics, graphs and formulas, you rock.


However, I want to make sure the data is accurate, and I've been playing with this graph and I think I've spotted an error, correct me if I'm wrong but its quite unusual.

Simply put, I think this graph is incorrect for the part where it shows a y-axis value of around 2 in 2011, and -2 a few months later

Why?

Because a log value to the extreme of -2 or 2 would imply that the actual price vs the expected price is a ratio of 1:50 or even 1:100

Your log graph is claiming that it was up to 50x overvalued in the bubble(at $32) highs, but then more than 50x undervaled in the crash. That simply doesnt make sense (as then the price would be moving 2500x from high to lows, which it didnt, it only moved around 10x).

----
To extrapolate further and give example-
lets assume your log graph is correct through June 2011 (the peak of the bubble). The formula of log(actual price/expected price) would then be
log (32/.5)   (as the high point was about $32, and a value of $.50 for the expected price(which appears as a reasonable expected price at the time at the .6% daily growth rate), gives a log value of 1.80.
All is fine up to this point.

The problem is where your graph then reflects a y-axis value of -2.

Because if you take the low points a few months later, expected price at that point should be around $1 (again because of the .6% daily growth rate).
so log (2.50/1) (because the low point was around $2.50)  is equal to a y-axis value of 0.30. which is FAR FAR different than the data shown.


Am I missing something?

This is relevant because I'm trying to find the point of maximum pain in the past and compare it to now, as based off my own research, we are quite close to being as low below this trendline as we have ever been- but based off this log scale that isnt the case(and thus I think the log scale is incorrect for that time)

Hey jl2012 can you post an updated one of these charts?  Much appreciated

8.8x a year, or 8800%

source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0

I want to get involved, (I signed up originally for the distribution in January), can I get an NEMstake now if I want? (and how long does it take for me to receive it if I want to go this route)

Hi there, I purchased my stake pretty early on, as seen on post #1082 on this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=422129.msg4756099#msg4756099

Im sure it has been asked before but I have looked around and cant find it-- how can I go about claiming my stake and having access to it?

Thank you in advance!

Because they could sell their bitcoins for cash in street markets or via localbitcoins.com

too bad you guys dont have ethereum otherwise you could actually make that bet..

if you posted this in reddit's dogecoin section I would have tipped you, that was hilarious

I am a huge proponent of freedom and progress, and I think thats going on right now, but I'm not that deep into understanding whats going on right now so if you are and do understand it please do share!


Some questions:
Are there any decentralized exchanges currently up and running? The thread I pasted below on reddit showed that coloredcoins is launching and that got my interest, but there, a lot of people are talking about a currency called "Counterparty" and apparently they have an exchange up, I am wondering is that exchange up and running?

Can I buy assets on that exchange? (like securities of silver, or wheat, or bitcoin options etc?)


Also, who are the players that are closest to making this happen? Like which coins / communities?




Here is the: reddit.com/r/bitcoin thread: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/25alg9/colored_coins_are_finally_happening/ )

In thinking more about it, although I believe Japan's economy is doomed, I think Argentina's is actually worse- why?

Because Japan's interest rates arent high yet (when it breaks loose, they'll go high, and they'll have to print franticly to preserve a semi-fuctioning economy (with high inflation and interest rates, which eventually leads to hyper-inflation // very high inflation which would lead to a bond-market crash)- but Argentina seems well on its way there to a crash alrdy w 25-30% inflation

Some cliffs are:

Argentina-
25-30% inflation
has has bond yield spikes, but hasnt crashed yet...


Japan-
extremely high debt, and artifically very low bond yields
the risk is when bond yields go up Japan could have to do a ton of printing... all while trying to keep bond yields under control to prevent a full on bond yield collapse.

-----
It's hard for me to tell who is more likely to collapse sooner as they have different situations (albeit both are borderline crash-worthy).


Let's hear your feedback


edit update:
In thinking more about it, although I believe Japan's economy is doomed, I think Argentina's is actually worse- why?

Because Japan's interest rates arent high yet (when it breaks loose, they'll go high, and they'll have to print franticly to preserve a semi-fuctioning economy (with high inflation and interest rates, which eventually leads to hyper-inflation // very high inflation which would lead to a bond-market crash)- but Argentina seems well on its way there to a crash alrdy w 25-30% inflation

BITCOIN IS BELOW ITS LONG TERM TRENDLINE. THIS IS BUY TIME

IT WAS BUY TIME EVEN AT $1000 BECAUSE IT HAS SUCH A STRONG TREND THAT IT WAS WORTH OVERPAYING(TO GET A POSITION)

NOW IT IS MONTHS BELOW WHERE IT SHOULD BE(Should be ~$650 right now, rising at .6% a day). AKA FUCKING AWESOME TIME TO BUY.




Here are the price details of VWAP:

Dec 1 2013 $280
Jan 1 2014 $336
Feb 1 $402
March 1 $483
April 1 $580
May 1 $694
June 1 $835
July 1 $1002
Aug 1 $1202
Sept 1 $1442
Oct 1 $1730
Nov 1 2077
Dec 1 $2493
Jan 1 2015 - $2991

ATH $1125 to be reached on July 23

yes that is the same inherent risk in any investment (even the most seemingly secure ones)