BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[oda.krell]

[...]

I've been participating in this thread (on-topic) since February 26th.

My apologies to jl2012 for my part in the recent thread derailment.

That said, I stand behind my above on-topic statements: jl2012's model (and its presentation) is, by a large margin, the most mature regression model posted in this subforum since I've been around (April last year).

[rpietila]

Since I am also interested in the model, care someone tell, if the model in his opinion has predictive value, and does it give buy/sell signals or zones or anything?

[jl2012]

Since I am also interested in the model, care someone tell, if the model in his opinion has predictive value, and does it give buy/sell signals or zones or anything?

y-axis is ln(price/trend)



It seems a bubble is likely to pop when the price is e^1.5 = 4.48 times over the trend line.

Using 1.5 as cut-off.......

in the first bubble, one would have sold at $17.16 on 04/06/2011, 5 days before the bubble pop but only 53% of the bubble top

in the second bubble, one would have sold at $211.97 on 09/04/2013, just the day before the bubble pop with 79.7% of the bubble top

in the latest bubble, one would have sold at $976 on 28/11/2013, 7 days before the bubble pop with 84.6% of the bubble top

So the advice could be to start selling when it is over by 4.48 times. Sell more when it goes higher.

There is no reliable buy signal from this plot

[piramida]

There is no reliable buy signal from this plot

Well, obviously buy at any price below zero would have served anyone well. I'd say something like this works well - <0 - oversold, start buying batches, >1 - overbought, start selling batches. For a long-term speculative play, this is a no-brainer (thanks btw for the thread and all).

[rpietila]

Thanks, it looks nice. The tops are neatly aligned.

What I mentioned concerning "my" trendline, the signals can only be calibrated after the event, so yours as well as mine would have started to predict events only in 2013 - before that there was only noise. Moreover, your line anticipated going really low vs. the trend in the mid-2013 bottom, and the followers would not have bought at all, losing the runup to $1000, whereas mine gave a correct buy signal at $70, which was calibrated in 10/2011 bottom by taking its trendline value.

Both seem to indicate that this is a buy zone, or what do you think?

[jl2012]

Date:    1-May-2014
VWAP:    458.55
x:    1384
a:    0.00603
b:    -1.81597
Rsq:    0.88827
The day's expected price:    681.62
Predicted date for today's price:    24-Feb-2014
Days ahead:    -65.78
Daily price rank:    148
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    28-Jul-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00602633100156526++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.81596922051291+%29   

[jl2012]

This bear market is worse than the 2013 one

[wobber]

Thank you for the postings. Yes, this market is sad. And boring.

[podyx]

This bear market is worse than the 2013 one

It kinda makes me think we are gonna come back harder then ever when this bearmarket is over

[wobber]

You mean higher? I saw it would be easier to go to 1500-1700 if price was 800 than from 400 to 1700.

[jl2012]

Date:    25-May-2014
VWAP:    565.30
x:    1408
a:    0.00599
b:    -1.80043
Rsq:    0.89174
The day's expected price:    763.31
Predicted date for today's price:    4-Apr-2014
Days ahead:    -50.11
Daily price rank:    119
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    3-Aug-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00599296718203962++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.80042714221527+%29   

[jl2012]

It's recovering, but we are still trading at 74% of the trend line, or 50 days behind it.

[crocko]

------------------------

Date: 16 Feb 2014
VWAP = 625.45
x = 1310
a = 0.006037
b = -1.82098
Rsq = 0.871816
Today's expected price = 440.0484
Predicted date for today's price = 15 Apr 2014
Days ahead = 58
Daily price rank = 84
Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 26 Jul 2014
------------------------

tl;dr:

ASSUMING the bitcoin price is growing with an exponential trend in long-term:

We expect bitcoin price to grow by about (1 - e^a) = (1 - e^0.006037) = 0.6055% per day
87.1816% (Rsq) of the variation in bitcoin price could be explained solely by time (which is very high)
The long-term "fair" price of today is only 440.0484. We are outpacing the long-term trend.
We expect to see today's price (625.45) on 15 Apr 2014, which is 58 days later
We expect to see ATH (1126) on 26 Jul 2014
Today's price is the 84th highest in the history of bitcoin

-----------------------------

Hello !

Today it is 26 Jul 2014, and NO ATH occurred..
Price of the Bitcoin,  is ~ $590 and still descending ...

[ajareselde]

------------------------

Date: 16 Feb 2014
VWAP = 625.45
x = 1310
a = 0.006037
b = -1.82098
Rsq = 0.871816
Today's expected price = 440.0484
Predicted date for today's price = 15 Apr 2014
Days ahead = 58
Daily price rank = 84
Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 26 Jul 2014
------------------------

tl;dr:

ASSUMING the bitcoin price is growing with an exponential trend in long-term:

We expect bitcoin price to grow by about (1 - e^a) = (1 - e^0.006037) = 0.6055% per day
87.1816% (Rsq) of the variation in bitcoin price could be explained solely by time (which is very high)
The long-term "fair" price of today is only 440.0484. We are outpacing the long-term trend.
We expect to see today's price (625.45) on 15 Apr 2014, which is 58 days later
We expect to see ATH (1126) on 26 Jul 2014
Today's price is the 84th highest in the history of bitcoin

-----------------------------

Hello !

Today it is 26 Jul 2014, and NO ATH occurred..
Price of the Bitcoin,  is ~ $590 and still descending ...

And it will keep going lower, since there are more bad news than there are good ones.
But its hard to realy predict what will happen, noone expected btc to reach 1000+ mark but still out of the blue it happened.

[jl2012]

Date:    26-Jul-2014
VWAP:    594.47
x:    1470
a:    0.00593
b:    -1.76796
Rsq:    0.90078
The day's expected price:    1035.47
Predicted date for today's price:    23-Apr-2014
Days ahead:    -93.65
Daily price rank:    156
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    14-Aug-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00592555826420775++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.7679641516586+%29   

[rebel24]

It's recovering, but we are still trading at 74% of the trend line, or 50 days behind it.

Hey jl2012 can you post an updated one of these charts?  Much appreciated

[aminorex]

And it will keep going lower, since there are more bad news than there are good ones.

What planet are you living on?  The news for bitcoin has been overwhelmingly bullish essentially ever since Gox went titsup in the river.

Price is low because of dumping on exchanges, which are easy to manipulate because they are thinly traded, because everyone is holding tight.

Why dump?  Two reasons:  Cheap coins from industrial mining, and suppressing price marks for contracted OTC prices.  These two factors enable large actors to enter the market without adverse price movement.

This dam will break.  It will break suddenly, and it will break massively.  The wave will be a tremendous wall, and when it passes, all our houses will be washed up on higher shores, if we do not make a shipwreck of them in all the excitement.

[jl2012]

y-axis is log(actual price/expected price). It is the worst since Jan 2013

[jl2012]

Date:    1-Aug-2014
VWAP:    595.68
x:    1476
a:    0.00592
b:    -1.76316
Rsq:    0.90139
The day's expected price:    1062.67
Predicted date for today's price:    25-Apr-2014
Days ahead:    -97.85
Daily price rank:    156
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    16-Aug-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00591578830553321++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.76315940207779+%29   

[Raystonn]

There is no reliable buy signal from this plot

I see this:


I do not like the repercussions of my analysis.  May GABI and COIN stop it in its tracks.