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21  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: May 13, 2019, 11:27:33 PM

It really is the reversal system first, then the array and last is the GMW which is usually wrong especially when trading the reversals in reverse. The GMW is only pattern recognition nothing more.  With the GMW it is more accurate on the longer term trends than the shorter term so monthly and up.


Doesn't sound like Armstrong above, he always states; Time first, then Price.  I don't think he'd say the opposite on this forum? Where are the typo's? Cheesy

But then he did write this:https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/trading-by-systems/
'..The Reversals are the best tool, and then the cycles help to hone in on the turning points. The Global Market Watch is a pattern recognition model so it is really an alert system that tells you to the look at the detailed reports. We can judge the magnitude of possible moves by looking at the gaps in the Reversal system...'

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/global-market-watch-window-to-the-world-interconnectivity/
"..The Global Market Watch was originally designed for hedge fund use and was inspired by one of our major institutional clients back in 1995. They did not have the time to read a written report on everything in their portfolio. They wanted a quick cheat-sheet that was visually a view of their portfolio. We use to sell this for $250,000 annually...

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/the-coming-contagion-cds-sales-double-from-2016/
"..The Global Market Watch shows you the entire world at a glance. This is the best tool that shows when a CONTAGION is starting for it is monitoring everything that moves.."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/using-the-global-market-watch/
'..We never buy or sell on this model since it is ONLY an alert and thus a confirming tool. Reversals and Arrays are the only forecasting methods that provide price and time. Th GMW is just an alert which is better on some more developed markets than less traded instruments. It is also more reliable on the higher monthly time levels up to yearly for there the patterns are less complicated.. I have always found the long-term term easier to see than the short-term...'
22  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: May 03, 2019, 01:39:59 AM
Also Kiwi, GMW is not a trading tool, never use it to trade or you will lose money for sure. Reversals only

Thanks Bike  Smiley

I am currently reviewing Socrates User Manual;

'While not a specific trading or investment recommendation tool, the GMW gives members an opportunity to identify new potential trends forming in a given Covered Market – helping take note of those worthy of conducting further research.
Once an opportunity is identified through the GMW, we then recommend studying the text analysis available for that Covered Market as this will give you contextual insights into market activity and trends our models are picking up on (while Basic Members are limited to Summary Analysis, we recommend Plus Members focus on Detailed Analysis text, and Pro Members focus on Premium Analysis text). 
Start by evaluating the longest time frame (*Monthly) Arrays and Reversals and work your way down to the shorter time frames (Weekly and Daily) to find the most notable potential Turning Points. For example, if you see a Monthly Array where the Aggregate bar stands out, then look at the corresponding Weekly Array to see if a specific week stands out in the same month with the highest Aggregate bar peak. If you have identified a Monthly and Weekly Array that align, then look at the Daily to see if a particular day(s) also show the highest Aggregate bar peak within the same week and month you've identified. (Please note though, we highly recommend focusing primarily on Monthly Array time frames, supported by Weekly Arrays within that same month. While Daily Arrays are informative, we do not recommend individuals try to exactly time an investment or trade to the day).
When the GMW and all three Array time trends are lining-up, and you've identified an attractive potential Turning Point and Reversal points supported by the corresponding Premium Analysis text, this represents the highest probability of a potential trading or investment opportunity according to our models. But always manage your risk, and work with a Financial Advisor'
23  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: May 02, 2019, 10:43:42 PM

Slingshot move in 2019 or 2020 ??
Will stock goes down to retest 23 000 or jump up to 30000 first ?? Can clarify  ?thks




Consolidating my notes from MA's blog articles:

So May and July are the next points in TIME - should be opposite events.

Someone here mentioned 6 May week was the highest bar.. is that still the case?

Armstrong has said he doesn't see new highs above that of 2018 until we enter 2020, but we are building a higher base.

He also says we are preparing for a Slingshot move.  23200 looks to be important support.  Only trade using the Weekly Bearish - not on your anticipation.

No rush to jump in until we take out the 4th Weekly Bull and then make new highs above 2018.

Once we break out of the 2018 high, expect to test the 30000 level by 2021 - even 35000 by that time.

This year's WEC will discuss the 'Channel Move' - I guess this is where DOW shoots up to a new base level..
Written 1 Jan 2018 private blog:'This 25,000-28,000 is the new barrier. Once we get through that area, then the next minimum target becomes 32,000.'

GMW showing Quarterly yellow (potential high/low) with significant emboldened text POSSIBLE IMPORTANT LOW.  So in my guesstimate i don't think the Slingshot will go below that number 21712.53.
What does the GMW say for MONTH Dec 2018?  Should be YELLOW with significant text relating to an IMPORTANT LOW too.
I think Slingshot prior to the jump up to a new level because he's been talking about the possible upcoming Channel Move - but I am guessing. Play it by the numbers and interlace with time.  That's because forecasts that 'never happened', failed with time and the forecast is moved onto the next cycle in time.
24  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: May 01, 2019, 10:56:27 PM
Consolidating my notes from MA's blog articles:

So May and July are the next points in TIME - should be opposite events.

Someone here mentioned 6 May week was the highest bar.. is that still the case?

Armstrong has said he doesn't see new highs above that of 2018 until we enter 2020, but we are building a higher base.

He also says we are preparing for a Slingshot move.  23200 looks to be important support.  Only trade using the Weekly Bearish - not on your anticipation.

No rush to jump in until we take out the 4th Weekly Bull and then make new highs above 2018.

Once we break out of the 2018 high, expect to test the 30000 level by 2021 - even 35000 by that time.

This year's WEC will discuss the 'Channel Move' - I guess this is where DOW shoots up to a new base level..
Written 1 Jan 2018 private blog:'This 25,000-28,000 is the new barrier. Once we get through that area, then the next minimum target becomes 32,000.'
25  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: April 17, 2019, 09:57:01 PM
I can't remember which poster on here directed the thread to this website, but a lot of work has gone into this Socrates buy/sell signals example:

http://armstrong.forumprofi.de/showthread.php?tid=78


"....Socrates Dow buy / sell signals - profit calculation

Armstrong has published the buy and sell signals for the Dow on the below long term chart. He has mentioned the "net profit/loss" number, but that in itself is not telling much about the real profit that could have been made. I've Iooked at every single position and calculated this chart with some real position and equity numbers. The following was the outcome.

Positions are additive and for simplicity I've taken the initial Dow at 7000 points = 7000$ for 1 position, but this can of course be scaled up or down. Depending on how much drawdown you are willing to accept (or capital / leverage is used), the below table shows the profit that could have been made.
Since the initial position size of 7000$ will change over time, the average position size during those 18 year was 10.500$ per position . The maximum number of open positions at one point was 9 positions which equals around 120.000$ in total. This was between 2004 and 2008 and all 9 open buy positions were closed in 2008 when the first sell signal came up. Then the first sell position was opened when the bear market ongoing. In 2002 the amount of sell positions was 9 positions (from 9 sell signals) which results to about 76.000$ in total, In Oct. 2002 all 9 sell positions were closed and a buy position was opened at the same time.
There was one period during 2008 and 2009 where 8 positions were accumulated (= 55.000$) and and in 2013 til 2015 it were 5 positions ( = 70.000$)
The average equity used over the 18 years was 35.000$ in this example.
The maximum drawdown happened during 1999 and 2011 were 3 consecutive open positions were closed with loses during a choppy period.
These numbers are calculated on the long term. There were 3 bull markets and 2 bear markets during that 18 year period. To take advantage of these numbers, one should to stick to those signals for at least 2 years (better 3 or ideally 18 years), I would say. As Armstrong also said, these signals work well during bull or bear markets. If the markets move sideways for a long time (several years), then signals don't work so well without timing.

The below values are related to the average equity invested over the whole time period of 18 years. In this case it is 35.000$
9 open positions max. = 120.000$ max. investment at some point.
Max. drawdown is related to the average equity.

Max. drawdown 9% profit 160% (56.000$ without leverage)
Max. drawdown 18% profit 320%
Max. drawdown 27% profit 480%
Max. drawdown 36% profit 640% (224.000$ - with a leverage of 4x per position)
Max. drawdown 45% profit 800%
Max. drawdown 55% profit 960% (336.000$ - with a leverage of 6x per position)

Since having 120.000$ invested at some point might not be an option for everyone, I've calculated this for fewer positions as well
and skipping everything above that position number. This is given that the initial positions size is 7000$ per position and position size is growing over time.

3 open positions max = (40.000$ max.) - 10.500$ in average per position , average equity used during the 18 years = 23.000$
The 50.000 for 3 positions were only when the Dow was at

Max. drawdown 15% profit 160% (37.000$ without leverage))
Max. drawdown 30% profit 320% (74.000$ - with a leverage of 2x per position)
Max. drawdown 45% profit 480% (111.000$ - with a leverage of 3x per position)
Max. drawdown 60% profit 640% (148.000$ - with a leverage of 4x per position)

During 1997 til 2015 the Dow itself had a max. drawdown of 50% (in 2008) and a total profit of around 250%. However, who could have known that it really goes up to 17.000 - 18.000 in 2012 with all of the banking crisis and subprime crisis going on. Who would have bought and sold the Dow during the panic of 2001 or 2008 correctly?

So in my opinion those signals were very successful compared to the Dow itself and it is super-simple to follow. You just have to consider the buy and sell signals by looking once a month at Socrates.
What also needs to be considered is position size, leverage, duration of investment, trading tools (ETF's or alike), the max. number of positions and the max. drawdown that can be accepted. Profits could be re-invested and additional equity could be added over time so that one doesn't have to start with 120k or 35k equity from the beginning.
With only 3 open positions max. it may happen that one is not trading at all for 2 years because there were more than 3 positions open at the same time. Also a leverage of 2x - 3x would be good to compensate inflation.

This one took me several full days to collect the data and create the formulas. Quite some work..."

26  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: March 05, 2019, 11:44:37 PM
From 1st January 2018 (a year ago)

'A lot of emails have come in on the last Private Blog Post. Our three primary target were 18500, 23700, and then 36000-40000. We also mentioned there would be intermediate resistance at the 25000 and 28000 level. While one email said we were cherry-picking from 2014 comments, the fact is these numbers do not change. The entire point is that 2018 is a Panic Cycle Year and the profile appears to be choppy noting every other month until we reach July. The Empirical models point to May as the strongest target with a Monthly Panic Cycle at that time.
It is always hard to guess the fundamentals that will be involved. There will be more EU elections to call confidence to come into question in the March/May time period so that could be reason for that period of interest. But we also have the Democrats who will do everything possible now to raise the controversy of Impeachment and mainstream media will play along. So 2018 is going to be a bashing-Trump celebration for the Democrats will have nothing else to rally their cause but to just oppose whatever Trump and the Republican propose. With the 2018 midterm elections in November, the computer does not seem to be looking at that period with any crazy volatility. It definitely appears that we are dealing with the first half of 2018 rather than the second. Thus, the chaos comes first and them we may get back to a trend for the second half of 2018.
What will become absolutely CRITICAL is a new high in the Dow above the 2017 high of 24876.07. The entire point of bringing up the 2014 post calling for a high at this time at the minimum threshold of 25,000-28,000, is the fact that we have reached this minimum target and that warns we can consolidate trapping people into a bear position. We do have a Monthly Bearish now at the 21279.00 level. This is the FIRST time a Monthly Bearish has risen above the 20,000 level so this is NOT something to ignore. If that were elected, then a sharp drop back to 17850 area becomes possible. Only a monthly closing below 16,000 level would signal a sustainable correction. That would then be a sign of a full blown extension of TIME meaning the ultimate high will be clearly pushed off into the 2032 period and that means the MOST EXTREME target would become likely, which I am hesitant to even mention and will not do so on the public blog for it would surely be taken out of context and used improperly. So I trust this will not be made public but the MOST EXTREME projection for a 2032 high would be 61,000. Keep in mind that such a number is intertwined with a monetary crisis and thus it is not a reflection of the current purchasing power. A Local phone call might also cost you $10 at that point in time. So let's keep the context here firmly connected.
Our 40,000 target was for a high no sooner than 2020. That is not the target for an extended rally into 2032.
This 25,000-28,000 is the new barrier. Once we get through that area, then the next minimum target becomes 32,000.
Keep in mind that the dollar is still vulnerable short-term. We could still see the Euro rally to the 12570 level before it declines. So a decline in the dollar could spark foreign selling and that means we could see weakness in the Dow before we get the strength.'

From 25 June 2018
We have exceeded the 2017 high intraday and if 2018 closes low, then we are indeed in an extended consolidation probably into 2020. However, this would simply reset the Phase Transition and we would be looking for an incredible price explosion into the 2025/2026 time period. That would certainly warn of the currency reset.

From 31 dec 2018
The data is now complete for 2018 and we were able to generate the new Array from 2019 into 2030. As I suspected, instead of a breakout to the upside into 2020, we are extending the cycle into 2032 for a final and major high. Just look at the share rise in volatility from 2026 onward and a Panic Cycle in 2030.
27  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: February 01, 2019, 09:11:03 PM
We elected a Long-Term Monthly Bullish in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Of course, the market held the 21600 Monthly Bearish Reversal. Electing this Long-Term Monthly Bullish Reversal is suggesting that we are not dealing with a broader change in trend. We are facing a change in public sentiment and 2020 appears to be a serious change in trend insofar as people among the general public will begin to question government. This shutdown has only demonstrated that Washington has collapsed into just party politics. As I have have stated, the wall was $5.7 billion and one week's interest payments are $6.7 billion. So it was never a matter of money. It was just party politics at its best. This means that we have crossed the line and government is no longer capable of managing anything. As pensions and debt become the crisis post-2020, both sides will just be blaming the other and nobody will be interested in actually solving anything. We can expect SUBSTANTIAL tax increases from the Democrats enough to really wipe out economic growth.
The prospects for the US share market remain intact. We are looking at the Greatest Trade of a lifetime coming on the next train. Washington and all governments are now hopelessly lost. They will not face the implosion of socialism as all their promises cannot be funded. They will give it a good shot raising every tax they can think of. But that will not be enough to save the day.
The number on the Dow are confirming we are by no means facing a major bear market. This is still in the staging process for wild times ahead.
28  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 31, 2019, 02:36:57 AM
The Fed has been effectively raising rates gradually for the last 10 years. The cheering by the pundits claiming the Fed has yielded to the stock market only demonstrates their inability to ever be an international hedge fund manager for they are obviously clueless. I have explained the trend in detail on the general public blog. However, I do not post reversals of arrays there for obvious reasons.

We can see that 2018 was a Directional Change so a pull-back into 2019 was reasonable given this is now the final leg down of the ECM which bottoms in January 2020. Note that 2019 is the turning point and then we have another Directional Change in 2020 with a Panic Cycle in 2021. Volatility will rise from 2021 into 2023. It appears that rates will be rising after 2020 moving into 2023. While this will also be a commodity cycle, that is not the real cause of the rate rise we see on the horizon.
Rates will rise as more and more governments start to become obvious that there is a debt crisis brewing. With the rest of the world imploding, even China, rates will rise as a factor of a decline in public confidence. We still have 2021 showing as the beginning of the Monetary Crisis. There remains the risk of the Euro moving into crisis and this will result in rates rising. The ECM cannot stop Quantitative Easing no matter what they say.
Technically, the resistance stands at 2.67% on the Discount Rate at the Fed. So we have not broken out just yet. However, we did close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 2.25% settling at 2.5%. Therefore, we should fall back to retest support going into 2019 and then the breakout appears to be aligned with the ECM.
29  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 23, 2019, 01:17:16 AM
Fantastic trading commentary from everyone - i learn a lot from you guys!  

This is the latest podcast i've heard from MA and Kerry Lutz from 15th Jan 2019;

http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2019/01/martin-armstrong-bull-market-in-stocks-has-way-more-to-go-part-1/

http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/martin-armstrong-part-2/
30  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 27, 2018, 10:37:44 PM
Guess I'm changing my mind, will keep Socrates. Armstrong did give the 26th as a turning point and although his 21600 was not hit, it was close. He said if we held the 21600 then we should bounce into next week before making new lows in January most likely. It really was an amazing call. And yes I did make money off this call by going long but I longed based off my own numbers and intraday timing for very close to the bottom. His call helped me hold for the whole day though. Truly a legendary day that's going down in the textbooks. I hope this volatility can continue for a while longer.

Glad to hear that you are staying onboard! : )

Yes a great call and I am waiting with baited breath for year end numbers!
31  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: November 05, 2018, 09:28:04 PM
Just some points I found re using the ECM dates..

http://www.economicconfidencemodels.com


"..The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends.

Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts.

The key to understanding the ECM is this global capital concentration.

ts proper use of the ECM is to understand that it is NOT a model based upon a single market and it should not be attempted to force fit this model to any individual market. The key is to watch the individual market that is lining up with the ECM and that is where the most intense capital flow will be moving.

So it is by no means geared to a single market nor should it be presumed to be a perfect model for an individual market. Each market has its own cycle. These are what we show in the Forecast Arrays which are not based on the ECM. It is the correlation of the individual market cycles to the ECM that we discovery where capital will flow to next.

By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. As you can see, all the things that turn with the ECM over years is based upon capital concentration. It is inherent within the economic structure that we live..."

So in relation to the ECM date 2015.75...he's said before it ferments the peak in Government (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/) "..This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble. Each 8.6 year wave produces a bubble, yet in a different sector. It is never the same thing twice...."  And he wrote this months before that actual ECM date. 
He didn't say that date would be a crash of some sort, just the 'start' of the Big Bang.  But sometimes the actual date does relate to a high/low in a particular market as in 87. 
Ever since 2015.75 interest rates have started to increase.  The worm has turned with the ECM date related to that market.
32  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: November 05, 2018, 09:10:30 PM

Marty also said the Dax had a bearish monthly at 11868 which we elected now, he says there is a massive gap now till 10400. I just wonder what he means by gap, will it drop to the next level in only 1 time frame, so it should get there by December?


I had asked a similar question a while ago re the DOW to Socrates Support and had a reply (from Erwin I think) regarding the election of Reversals and the time frame.  
His reply: "...If reversals are taken out you don't wait. The rule is, if we close above/below more then 1%, then the market will retrace to the reversal with no time given.
The rule of 3 applies to any reaction in a bear market usually the 3 time units. So if a rally is expected look for 3 time units.  Strong bear market 3 days or weeks. If a market needs to align itself like gold with other cycles it can be 3 quarters or 3 years as in Gold now.."

So the DAX closed 31 Oct at 1144751 and the Monthly Bear was "..1186880. Taking out this area and we have a large GAP down to the 1040000 zone.."
The September close was 1226589 and it closed October at 1144751, more than 1% past the 1186880 Monthly Reversal.  As there is a gap down i would class this as a strong bear market, so the 3 time-unit rally back up to test the reversal would be 3 days or weeks only - then gap down to 10400 by...? That 10400 price in my mind would intercede with TIME, so yes I think the next Time factors Marty mentions are "..We will also see December and February begin to shape up as important turning points which should produce the opposite of each other."

(Where he says "if the reversals are taken out you don't wait" was in relation to my query regarding the the DOW which was in its Bullish Phase Transition.  In that respect, taking out Bullish reversals by more than 1% in that sort of market, you just jump in and don't wait for any retest, because there is unlikely to be one in such a bullish market, and every Time turning point becomes a cycle inversion with new highs each time.)

Thanks Kiwi, this is good to know.

Since the monthly array indicates a high in November it could be likely to be a 3 week rally back up so it can still close bullish on the month?
If it is just 3 days then the Dax will need to rally to the elected reversal on Monday, if it dos not, can we then assume it will be a 3 week retest?

The same should apply now for the EURUSD now the monthly reversal at 1.5530 has been elected, looks like it should be a 3 week rally back up, but I guess the problem we have is that unless Marty indicates there is a gap then we wont know, since for the time being Socrates only gives one reversal, which does not have to be the closest. Also, I read that the 1% rules is not valid if multiple reversals are elected at the same time, so only in the case of the DAX can we now be sure that the 1% rule is likely to take place. 



I have the same queries as you based on the time frame of the rallies in a bear market..hindsight will help us test our hypothesis...

I also asked Erwin about Socrates reversal numbers.. I asked are the reversals quoted the 'Major' ones or just the 'next in line' - and he confirmed the written Reversals on the Investor level are the 'next in line'.
Yes it makes it harder when you don't have all the Reversals to hand to see gaps etc, but once the Trader Level comes live, he confirmed that you will be able to subscribe to just one instrument if you wish (i.e. Gold Futures) and get the all the reversals and arrays for just that.  That would be cheaper than paying the much higher subscription rate that gives full access to everything.
33  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: November 02, 2018, 03:16:37 AM
Ah, thanks for the answer Kiwi. Because its a monthly timeframe, it might be 3 months?

My original query asked that specifically - would the election of a Monthly Bearish Reversal mean you wait 3-Month-time-units for the reaction rally back to test, but his answer outlined above didn't confirm that - he wrote 'a reaction in a strong bear market would be max 3 days or weeks.' That's how I translate it anyway : )

So i guess we wait to see if the DAX retests within the next 3 days or weeks..?
34  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: November 01, 2018, 09:02:22 PM

Marty also said the Dax had a bearish monthly at 11868 which we elected now, he says there is a massive gap now till 10400. I just wonder what he means by gap, will it drop to the next level in only 1 time frame, so it should get there by December?


I had asked a similar question a while ago re the DOW to Socrates Support and had a reply (from Erwin I think) regarding the election of Reversals and the time frame.  
His reply: "...If reversals are taken out you don't wait. The rule is, if we close above/below more then 1%, then the market will retrace to the reversal with no time given.
The rule of 3 applies to any reaction in a bear market usually the 3 time units. So if a rally is expected look for 3 time units.  Strong bear market 3 days or weeks. If a market needs to align itself like gold with other cycles it can be 3 quarters or 3 years as in Gold now.."

So the DAX closed 31 Oct at 1144751 and the Monthly Bear was "..1186880. Taking out this area and we have a large GAP down to the 1040000 zone.."
The September close was 1226589 and it closed October at 1144751, more than 1% past the 1186880 Monthly Reversal.  As there is a gap down i would class this as a strong bear market, so the 3 time-unit rally back up to test the reversal would be 3 days or weeks only - then gap down to 10400 by...? That 10400 price in my mind would intercede with TIME, so yes I think the next Time factors Marty mentions are "..We will also see December and February begin to shape up as important turning points which should produce the opposite of each other."

(Where he says "if the reversals are taken out you don't wait" was in relation to my query regarding the the DOW which was in its Bullish Phase Transition.  In that respect, taking out Bullish reversals by more than 1% in that sort of market, you just jump in and don't wait for any retest, because there is unlikely to be one in such a bullish market, and every Time turning point becomes a cycle inversion with new highs each time.)
35  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 31, 2018, 07:47:13 AM
MA - As I said before, I personally met Larry Edelson (now deceased) back in 2015 - he and Armstrong have been friends since the 80s.. if you bother to watch The Forecaster he is in the documentary confirming Marty forecast that 87 event..We spoke at length in the bar after his Q&A session for The Forecaster documentary screening about his life bullion trading, Socrates and Armstrong.  So straight from a horses mouth so-to-speak.

Michael Campbell of Money Talks.net (https://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-story/ - click on Michael Campbell) goes on record confirming his accurate prediction in the documentary.

And you can watch WEC 2016 online for free... forecasts made then were not vague and came true.  He (Erwin) said the DOW would Phase Transition from then (2016) until 2018 which it did.

Is this what you mean about his AI?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/is-conversational-ai-here/
"..When I was working on developing Socrates’ Natural Language, I was not interested in creating a machine to debate me. I was interested in creating a machine that I could at least have a conversation with. I teamed up with Dragon Systems back then when it was still hardware. I built a system and gave it to my children so that the computer could learn how to keep a conversation going. It would remember what they spoke about, so the next time they came back its knowledge base grew. I came home one day and found my daughter by the computer with all her girlfriends, for apparently they did not believe she could communicate with the computer. No doubt all her friends ran home and demanded a talking computer from their fathers. Needless to say, it taught me a lot about how to create a machine to have a conversation with and this was back in the 1980s..."

https://www.howestreet.com/2017/11/29/ai-v-self-aware/
The AI that people think they are watching is a fully cognitive robot that is self-aware. I wrote a program for my children back in the early 1980s. I installed a Dragon voice board and wrote a program to be a politician. It would interact with my children and record likes and dislikes. When my daughter would go back the next day, it would ask about something it knew like how is your dog.
The politician part came into play whenever it did not understand a line of conversation. It would simply change the subject. My kids would bring friends over and did not understand that the computer I created was not exactly off the shelf. They would tell their friend that their computer talked.
Likewise, Socrates is not cognitive. It understands how to analyze and go well beyond what humans are capable of. However, it is still not self-aware. I personally do not believe a computer can simply become self-aware by evolution. That theory is really based on the idea that there is no God and we have emerged simply because of our brain structure. Thus, if we create a neural net big enough, the theory is consciousness will somehow emerge as did we. I do not buy that."

Note he says Socrates is not self-aware...
36  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 31, 2018, 01:10:38 AM
From today:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/merkel-has-been-the-face-of-europe-so-get-ready/
"..The consolidation is about to end. So buckle up – we will be on our way to something really extraordinary that no domestic analysis will ever see coming.
In that respect, it will be like the 1987 Crash that was caused by external factors that never appeared in domestic numbers or analysis. It was so significant, that is when the Presidential Commission was compelled to request all our international research to understand how external factors overpower domestic.
So welcome of 2018. This is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Better than any movie or TV show – that’s for sure!.."

a bit of background;
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/panics/20th-century/the-1987-crash/
"..When we look at the capital flows for this period, we can see the wild and crazy swings that became the hallmark of the 1987 Crash. The swings in capital returning to Japan clearly contributed to creating the 1987 Crash, which was then followed by the capital concentration in Japan manifesting in the Bubble there for December 1989 also in line with our Economic Confidence Model target 1989.95...
.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (22.61%). Domestically, investors called their brokers asking what was going on. Failing to understand currency, they did not realize why foreign investors were selling based on their belief that the dollar would have to fall much further. This had nothing to do with domestic economic statistics.."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/our-world-tour-sponsored-by-institutions-began-in-1988/
"..After the 1987 crash, we were the only firm who had forecast the event within 30 ticks of the low and the TIME. But we then forecast that the market would rally to new highs. That was a shocking forecast, and we also made the day of the low. It was after that event when institutions around the world began begging us to give presentations to their clients. It was naturally in their self-interest to tell their clients we were the best.'"

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/october-19th-30-year-anniversary-1987-crash/
"..Now we talk about 1987 which was 30 years ago. I was giving a WEC that weekend. We just elected a set of Double Weekly Bearish Reversals. The Arrays called for a low in 2 days. There were no other reversals between 286 and 180.
I remember standing up there trying to find some technical support between 286 and 180. I could not. There was nothing between the two even technically. The audience asked me what would happen? I said look, it sounds nuts, but we should move down 10,000 basis point in two days.
I myself could not believe it. But people paid me for what the computer had to say, not my opinion.
When that happened, it was right on the ECM date. It was absolutely perfect to the T.
Everyone was calling for the 1929 collapse. The model said new highs by 1989.
That’s when brokerage houses were begging me to please come and speak to their retail audiences. I agreed and went to Toronto for Midland Daugherty. They filled the place with thousands of people..."

His WEC 2018 is November 16+17......  his ECM date is 21 November...
37  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 25, 2018, 10:52:10 PM
https://imgur.com/a/XjmXL This was the 'user guide' I was referring to. As you can see, some of the quotes are directly from Armstrong's page. Some of the forecast rows (like directional change) are highly varied, but the composite turning point model is not. The Reversals are also pretty clear cut; electing one means testing the next.

In this case, pay attention to the last sentence: 'signals a retest of support is likely'. As we know, Armstrong is frequently ambiguous BUT this one is much less so. He clearly chooses direction; the question is simply a matter of how much. Now, if one were to have shorted, they would have made money, but the amount would be the question. The turning points are also ambiguous- most of the time. I recently found out that he tends to only use 'strongest targets' as turning points- so for example, only the highest bars on the plot as opposing events instead of a trending composite which I had tried to do before. Like the 17th he mentioned, which was the high before the resumption of the decline. Yes, the 'bounce into Monday for 2 days' was ambiguous because I did not know if he was referring to Monday in the 2 days as well or not. But again, the intraday break of 2760 into 2720 was correct, as well as the 2795 intraday resistance which actually was the high of the day. And as said before, IF the market closes above or below certain numbers, then the market should rise/fall. Remember the 3 numbers? TRC's post on October the 19th:

Well so far it is starting to look like the spx cash will close UNDER 2767 today which. Ould set up a mini crash into the new moon on Friday October 24th .

TRC obviously is a sceptic as well and repeating that forecast was in jest in that manner because he did not think it would happen, but yes, it happened precisely like that.
Hi Bikefront - i want to pm you..but your settings don't allow it.  please amend if you like?
38  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 18, 2018, 09:00:50 PM
We are now only 14 trading days away from the USA election.

It just occurred to me almost exactly what is about to happen to the stock market.

Remember 2016 November election ?

I think we are about to get a repeat of that during the next FOURTEEN trading DAYS

All you have to do is LOOK at the 2016 price action into early November 2016.

We will swing down there hard after a bit more choppiness this and next week.

So price will suffer extreme anxiety into that election date and then immediately after you will see a HUGE upwards surging rally that does not look back and goes vertical higher and very swiftly.

You will see the sp500 get to 3000 faster than a new york minute after that.

The theory ?  The current premise is that the democrats will take over.  But I think the opposite will occur and that will send the market rocketing higher same as in 2016.

So it is looking like the max stretch point of the slingshot is election day... then nothing but higher from there.

This^  Do we finally get a Slingshot move during the election?  I agree, the markets should take off if the Reps get in.  If they don't and the Democrats win..what happens to the markets?

https://vimeo.com/198896912 - watch from 2hrs50mins
'..Rule in the DOW - before the Market makes a major move, it goes opposite and scares everyone.  On election day the DOW made a big move down 800 points.  17,300 was the Double Monthly Bearish - it stopped at 17,400 - THE FALSE MOVE.  Then reversed and went up.  ..'

Latest blog (as posted above) says if there is a daily close in the DOW below 24,898 then we will retest the lows..perhaps the DOW will close just above that number, fail to take out that reversal and then slingshot up?  Obvs that number can change depending upon price action between now and election day...
However, Armstrong has said 'is the trade of the century knocking on our door?'  I believe this means a slingshot will happen to shake the tree, then shoot up..?
But, that's my opinion and he says just follow the reversals and be unemotional about it.

If 24,898 is penetrated, my notes say the next Weekly Bear is 24,101 and the next Monthly Bear is 23,997.20 (my notes are a mess so could be wrong!)
39  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 12, 2018, 02:05:43 AM
I got answers about his arrays before.  The bars ACTUALLY do mean the price levels, as he emailed me.  And I forgot where he said this, but he said that the price levels are relative only in THAT timeframe that is being plotted.  So you cannot compare the price levels between two different array plots.



See at 2hrs 23mins - https://vimeo.com/198896912  which confirms what you have written above:

"the bars relate to price levels..the array has to match price level activity.."

The highest bars reflect the most amount of cycles hitting at that moment in time.
It's not just the top composite bar that highlights price activity by the highest bars, it's also high bars shown the other levels such as Empirical etc..
40  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 11, 2018, 08:52:37 PM
Kiwibird,

  I'm not defending the bank nor USA legal system, etc.  I kept saying that probably over 95% of info on his blog is completely true.  But how are you going to tell when Armstrong slips in 5% untruth (if he did)?  And for every untruth, you need to ask yourself WHY he is saying/doing that.

  And you just need to LOOK at the facts.  FACT: His co-director was found guilty fraudulently allocating profitable trades.  CONJECTURE: Armstrong is a smart guy, and he should be aware of that.

  FACT: In 1987, fastest CPU on computer CPU was running at some 33MHz, but at year 2000, CPU was running at 3.3GHz.  In just 13 years, technology advanced by a factor of 100.  It has basically been exponential, which you can roll back further the speed to earlier than 1987 via exponential curve fitting.  Yet, Armstrong claimed that he did better than the speech recognition from Dragon dictation system before that time.  In 1987, the hard drive size was about 2MB.  Now 3TB is super-cheap.  That's a factor of 1.5 Million advancement (not to mention the cost that went down probably another 20X).
  He did show a picture with his PC, which was very similar to the one that I had.  HOW ON EARTH can he get access to such large storage that may be required and huge processing CPU power in 1970/80s, when even today, your speech is sent over via internet to Google/Apple to be processed by their cloud of servers for speech recognition, because your local CPU doesn't even have enough processing power?

  WHY did he make such claim?


  I can go on & on.  Yes, maybe he was over-punished in jail.  Yes, maybe he was mis-treated by legal systems.  But how do you explain that his co-director fraudulently allocating profitable trades?  BOTH can be true at the same time.

  Again, I'm just trying to judge his trading forecast for its own merit, and not him as a person.  Don't twist his words.  Don't twist your thinking.  Just stick to the same measuring method on his forecast array, and you can scientifically determine whether his forecast array has any (tradable) values or not.

  If I have an AI computer like his, I would just show the AI trading record on every financial market to show how successful it can be, and for trading in my personal account too.  No if-then-else.  It's either you can make money, or you don't.  But such black-and-white record if it's not successful will expose the "AI computer".


If Armstrong's charges were bogus then why not the other charges too as they all happened around the same time - connected?  Anything to discredit PEI and Armstrong.

re speech recognition I have no idea, I'm not a techie.  why don't you email to ask him?  He's replied online to my queries (related to Socrates) when I joined the membership - both he and Erwin
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