+8.5 = Kexkey Thanks! EDIT: Oops I'm too late. Well, let's hope I was wrong anyway.
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So the hashrate is still off as I speak. I don't know what to think anymore I was ready for "back to the sky" movement. I think the big players are waiting for the halving to turn their new-generation hashers on. If they'd do it right now, they would have an effect on the difficulty and they don't want that right now (well they did a few weeks ago when we saw 20% increase). They are ready for the halving. And when it comes... ...all the small hashers will turn off their gear. But the big ones will turn on their new machines. Difficulty would double, but since the small ones turn the switch off, the difficulty should be ok for them. And they won't lose that much in the halving. They are ready. Meanwhile, they control the difficulty (by turning on and off machines; it's a game: "Hey let's try to get the diff to EXACTLY 0.00% this time!"), of course by colluding between the big ones in China.
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That could mean there's a possible leak of Bitmain customers info...
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Congrats ingiltere! Mining is so surprising! 2015 was a great year to mine. Can't say so for 2016 up to now... Anyone has inside info from Bitfury, Bitmain, Canaan or any other manufacturer to help us set the next difficulty change?
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It would appear that heavy math and cryptography don't actually eliminate the "human element" from Bitcoin. As long as folks "trust it", it can work. Remove that, and no amount of math will save it (IMHO).
Makes sense. Until robots, IoT, autonomous systems, become massive users of Bitcoin. I guess then trust in the system won't be a factor for it to survive. Nodes are run by humans... For now. Well it could actually be a realty in the future that nodes will be run by the autonomous systems using it. lol Who knows!
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It's actually not a "fork attempt", but an attempt to solve a problem. You see, the goal is not the fork, it's the improvement. The first five words at https://bitcoinclassic.com/ is " We are hard forking bitcoin", that looks pretty clearly like a fork attempt to me. I do not agree their goal is improvement, I think that is a byproduct, a way to entice people over to their fork and seize development control. Well that's why I was talking about perceptions, if your perception is their goal is to take over Bitcoin, you'll interpret everything they say that way. But if you take a step back and think, their solution is to increase the max block size and the only way to achieve it is by a hard fork, so technically that's what they develop. The way they express it on the site is direct, probably to be as clear as possible and not trying to hide the hard fork path. BTW, I'm trying to be as objective as possible when I say that. There's no obvious choice in this story. I actually think the best thing would have been Core increasing the max block size earlier. Everybody would be working on all the other ways to scale and productivity would not be slowed down by media/community management. All the drama would have been inexistent and developers would all be drinking beer together. I don't think hijacking the entire Bitcoin network by controlling it is something possible. There was a statement in the faq on the xt site (that probably exists somewhere on the classic site, too) that gave all dispute resolution powers to 2 developers - hardly what I would call decentralized. I don't trust people with agenda like that. I don't trust people with hidden agenda neither. Once again, are you sure their intentions were to control the system, or maybe it was to propose a way to break deadlocks with some kind of benevolent dictatorship or whatever like the way it works in a lot of other open source projects? I don't have the answer, I actually don't know a lot about anything, but I'm good in asking questions to make sure everything has been well thought.
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I do not like the XT or classic fork attempts, to me that is two guys trying to hijack the entire bitcoin network and bring it under their control via a fork.
It's actually not a "fork attempt", but an attempt to solve a problem. You see, the goal is not the fork, it's the improvement. The way we see it can have an impact on our reactions and opinions. The perceptions of the taken actions are often more important than the actions themselves. I don't think hijacking the entire Bitcoin network by controlling it is something possible. Do you? Ethereum just forked. Nice and easy. You know why everything went smoothly? Because people agreed even if they didn't think exactly the same. The answer to the block size problem has not been found yet, but it will be in time, and it will be solved more eloquently than simply proving bigger blocks.
It will be a combination of every good ideas, including block size limit increase. The question is: when? Will it be too late? My fear is halving will be catastrophic. That being said, I'm confident there will be peace and great things will happen with Bitcoin after the halving and scaling issues are solved.
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+7.8 = Kexkey Can't wait to see the chaos following the halving... Chaos with confirmation wait time, difficulty, user satisfaction, and between the two sides of the debate screaming "We told you we should have ..."
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-3.6 = Kexkey Yay!!
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I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations. That could explain the drop.
Can you provide link? I would be interesting to see it. Would take more then twitter for me to believe it though. Good news is price has shot up were around 438... approaching 440. Considering we were around 418 around 24 hours ago that is a decent jump... so I'm starting to get happier on BTC price. Hum, I'll try to find it. I am following a lot of people, won't be easy to find. It was related to the Bitcoin Roundtable in Hong Kong, IIRC it was a screenshot of a discussion in WeChat. But you're right, there's a lot of junk on Twitter. But not as much as on Reddit. EDIT: Fixed a typo.
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Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6% I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods. Rich I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping. I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate. Not disagreeing with the Batch 10 shipping effect just making the point that in the last 2 Periods where Hash was added during the Period it results in an under-correction of Difficulty and a positive starting point for the next Period even before any more Hash is added. Whereas I judged for this Period that the exit run rate matched the correction, so we were entering this Period at Par. Of course from here anything could happen. Rich They did not sell 10 percent of the network in batch ten. We were at 23 percent and dropped to 13 percent. The missing ten percent would be 108 ph This is about 22000 s-7s! That did not happen. It is a mix of batch ten and an unknown Also like Rich says this makes for an inaccurate early number for diff. Based on the 23 percent I think we may add 60 to 80 ph. With maybe 40 ph going missing. I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations. That could explain the drop.
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I was just looking at the chart of past increases, and on December 18th, difficulty was 93.5 Billion. On February 19th, it had risen to 163.5 Billion. That's almost exactly a 75% increase in 2 months time. I don't have an accurate recollection of BTC price on December 18th, but I am sure it hasn't gone up 75% in the last two months.
Rather sobering in my opinion.
My guess is miners believe in the block reward/btc price equilibrium and bet on the price going up (like doubling) at the halving in July or around. So they pump their hashpower even if right now it looks like not being worth it... Mining, gambling, investing in stocks ... Same game?
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The original post for this thread indicates that a guess of +1.0 would go through +1.19%, and not the previous 1.09%. That suggests intervals of .2 rather than .1. Is that a typo, or a deliberate change in the plan?
Also noticed it, must be a typo.
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-50.0 = Dekker3D -1.2 = philipma1957 ____ I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms
The chances are we carry over.
One of you guys could be the lucky one... especially Dekker3D!! I don't know about that I think that I would pick a snow ball's chance in h--l over Dekker3D. I am thinking I will go back to rollover not ending and try to be very careful about cheaters. I did link the excitement of the bigger prizes. I think the rollover is very exciting and may attrack more people in the game, which is cool! Funny that weather is more predictable than mining difficulty...
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-50.0 = Dekker3D -1.2 = philipma1957 ____ I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms
The chances are we carry over.
One of you guys could be the lucky one... especially Dekker3D!!
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+17.7 = Kexkey
I thought it was going to go down but looks like I was wrong. Price has to follow diff now.
Good luck to all!
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We should start a thread where everyone buys in and guesses the difficulty at the halving, closest without going over wins the pot.
Haha! I think next 6-9 months are unpredictable. Particularly next 5 months, with new miners, blocks reward halving, (hopefully) blocksize-limit-drama getting fixed and scalability tweaks being implemented, it's so hard to predict what's going to happen with the difficulty as well as on the bitcoin price. Your thread would be a gamblers thread.
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lol hey thanks! As a miner, I was hoping not to win.
Let's hope next jump will be nicer on us.
Phil, here's the address: 1BKJjXgKgUsKEsct5gUnaNXnEc6C3nqXhn
See you in next thread!
Kex
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All PCIe cables and C19-C20 cables are back in stock. I am working at obtaining some C19 to NEMA variations for a very reasonable price without too large a MOQ. As soon as I can make it happen I will, PM me if you have preferences (NEMA 5-15P, 6-15P, 5-20P, 6-20P they are all built to handle the same amount of current, but have blades orientated differently to comply w/ code)
Nice! I won't have to cut wires anymore. Thanks!
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