Diff thread Feb 19 to Mar 3? picks are closed.... prize = 0.2 btc

[philipma1957]

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations.  That could explain the drop.

   Lets all say a quick prayer to what ever deity you believe in that this is true.  And that Chinese  government cracks down on the other farms.

This news if true is wonderful.

[indiemax]

[/quote]

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations.  That could explain the drop.


[/quote]


Haha, the Chinese !

Well with the price going up,hope you guys can get your ROI 

[notlist3d]

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations.  That could explain the drop.

Can you provide link? I would be interesting to see it.  Would take more then twitter for me to believe it though.

Good news is price has shot up were around 438... approaching 440.   Considering we were around 418 around 24 hours ago that is a decent jump... so I'm starting to get happier on BTC price.

[Kexkey]

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations.  That could explain the drop.

Can you provide link? I would be interesting to see it.  Would take more then twitter for me to believe it though.

Good news is price has shot up were around 438... approaching 440.   Considering we were around 418 around 24 hours ago that is a decent jump... so I'm starting to get happier on BTC price.

Hum, I'll try to find it.  I am following a lot of people, won't be easy to find.  It was related to the Bitcoin Roundtable in Hong Kong, IIRC it was a screenshot of a discussion in WeChat.

But you're right, there's a lot of junk on Twitter.  But not as much as on Reddit.  

EDIT: Fixed a typo.

[RichBC]

Yesterday finished with +4.17% 150 Blocks however Today there have had some slow Blocks and the run rate for the period is at -3% which is nice  Thanks to the Roundtable Consensus we are nicely over £300 now and have been touching $450, let's hope this holds and we can move steadily up.


Rich

[notlist3d]

Yesterday finished with +4.17% 150 Blocks however Today there have had some slow Blocks and the run rate for the period is at -3% which is nice  Thanks to the Roundtable Consensus we are nicely over £300 now and have been touching $450, let's hope this holds and we can move steadily up.


Rich

And we took a drop to around 433 right now.. so almost even with 24 hours ago.  No long term gain sadly.  I am suprised at low difficulty numbers I don't know what to think of that.

I was pretty convinced someone was just pumping out the gear and would keep doing it.   I would love to be wrong thought on it.

[mwizard]

Just an observation. It may only be bad luck/variance but Bitfury has solved a lot less blocks in the last few days.  

Has their hash rate dropped?

[philipma1957]

@mwizard today was really slow day.

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456023040236



399510 (Main Chain)   2016-02-21 23:52:41

399383 (Main Chain)   2016-02-21 00:00:14



that is  a 128 block day

the 19th  of feb was  138 blocks
the 20th  of feb was  151 blocks
the 21st  of feb was  128 blocks

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   170,040,810,739 (+4.01%)
Adjust time:   After 1662 Blocks, About 12.1 days
Hashrate(?):   1,129,745,950 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   21:55 (1.1 minutes ago)

[alh]

Just an observation. It may only be bad luck/variance but Bitfury has solved a lot less blocks in the last few days.  

Has their hash rate dropped?

While I might be wrong, I don't think there is a direct way that somebody, outside of Bitfury, can measure their hash rate. The global hashrate, and any outside estimate of their hashrate, is based solely on how quickly they solve blocks. I think the only thing you can conclude from a reduced block solve rate for Bitfury, is that they have a smaller fraction of the estimated network hashrate.

So it's kind of a circular answer. So many things are based solely on block solve rate.

[adaseb]

Wow! Hashrate really sure took a dive, wondering if that Chinese mining farm stealing electricity was true.

[RichBC]

As Phil has said a really slow Day -11.11% and only 128 blocks, relative to the last few periods this is Pedestrian, and looking at Today it seems to be continuing with the Run rate taking another little step down to -6.19%.

So the big question is will this continue throughout the Period? Was there a big push to get everything mining before the Holiday that cleared the pipeline for the moment and we are now in a short lull before everyone's 14/16nm Miners are ready?


Rich

  

[skuser]

This so confusing lately that the only thing I can state almost for sure there will be another prize rollover in this thread 

[philipma1957]

This so confusing lately that the only thing I can state almost for sure there will be another prize rollover in this thread 

and because it is so nutty you  will be wrong.

[Mikestang]

Whatever is going on it sure is weird, I wish there was a way to definitively know instead of having to guess.  Price is strong right now, over $437 as I type, and difficulty is leveling off for this period anyway.  I would really like to see it stay level for the next few months, I'm hoping the big hardware push is done.  There's a point where there won't be enough time left to the halving for even the $0.01 kw-h power people can't ROI new gear, so it should settle down at some point.

[RichBC]

Whatever is going on it sure is weird, I wish there was a way to definitively know instead of having to guess.  Price is strong right now, over $437 as I type, and difficulty is leveling off for this period anyway.  I would really like to see it stay level for the next few months, I'm hoping the big hardware push is done.  There's a point where there won't be enough time left to the halving for even the $0.01 kw-h power people can't ROI new gear, so it should settle down at some point.

Well my theory is that there was a big push to get stuff mining before the Holiday and now with the BW 14nm Miner being deployed and the Bifury announcements people will be holding back on further 28nm purchases, putting us into a slight lull waiting for full availability of new miners?


Rich

[philipma1957]

Whatever is going on it sure is weird, I wish there was a way to definitively know instead of having to guess.  Price is strong right now, over $437 as I type, and difficulty is leveling off for this period anyway.  I would really like to see it stay level for the next few months, I'm hoping the big hardware push is done.  There's a point where there won't be enough time left to the halving for even the $0.01 kw-h power people can't ROI new gear, so it should settle down at some point.

Well my theory is that there was a big push to get stuff mining before the Holiday and now with the BW 14nm Miner being deployed and the Bifury announcements people will be holding back on further 28nm purchases, putting us into a slight lull waiting for full availability of new miners?


Rich

good as any other guess.

although I prefer a 50 to 100 ph group of farms in China were busted for power theft.  This would be very helpful to hash rate for a few jumps.

[notlist3d]

Whatever is going on it sure is weird, I wish there was a way to definitively know instead of having to guess.  Price is strong right now, over $437 as I type, and difficulty is leveling off for this period anyway.  I would really like to see it stay level for the next few months, I'm hoping the big hardware push is done.  There's a point where there won't be enough time left to the halving for even the $0.01 kw-h power people can't ROI new gear, so it should settle down at some point.

Well my theory is that there was a big push to get stuff mining before the Holiday and now with the BW 14nm Miner being deployed and the Bifury announcements people will be holding back on further 28nm purchases, putting us into a slight lull waiting for full availability of new miners?


Rich

good as any other guess.

although I prefer a 50 to 100 ph group of farms in China were busted for power theft.  This would be very helpful to hash rate for a few jumps.

The only thing is that BW miner is quite different then the specs they released on miner long ago.  So they must be able to produce it pretty cheap if they launched a lot of them.   

I'm not sure on chip design but they have a way's till they reach specs.   Not sure if that is good or bad long term.  They do seem to be first one to sell 14NM though at least one reseller had hands on a few from BW.  I have not seen any others sell a 14nm outside of company.

[RichBC]

Whatever is going on it sure is weird, I wish there was a way to definitively know instead of having to guess.  Price is strong right now, over $437 as I type, and difficulty is leveling off for this period anyway.  I would really like to see it stay level for the next few months, I'm hoping the big hardware push is done.  There's a point where there won't be enough time left to the halving for even the $0.01 kw-h power people can't ROI new gear, so it should settle down at some point.

Well my theory is that there was a big push to get stuff mining before the Holiday and now with the BW 14nm Miner being deployed and the Bifury announcements people will be holding back on further 28nm purchases, putting us into a slight lull waiting for full availability of new miners?


Rich

good as any other guess.

although I prefer a 50 to 100 ph group of farms in China were busted for power theft.  This would be very helpful to hash rate for a few jumps.

The only thing is that BW miner is quite different then the specs they released on miner long ago.  So they must be able to produce it pretty cheap if they launched a lot of them.   

I'm not sure on chip design but they have a way's till they reach specs.   Not sure if that is good or bad long term.  They do seem to be first one to sell 14NM though at least one reseller had hands on a few from BW.  I have not seen any others sell a 14nm outside of company.

I think that the point is that all the noise from Bitfury and the actual existence of the BW Miner signals that 14nm is here / very close, so who is going to be buying a 28nm miner at the moment?

Rich

[alh]

Is it just me, or does anybody else think that it MIGHT be a tiny negative adjustment? The bitcoinwisdom trend lines all suggest that could happen, although with nearly 11 days to go, almost anything is possible still.

The change is just stunning from a week ago.

[RichBC]

Is it just me, or does anybody else think that it MIGHT be a tiny negative adjustment? The bitcoinwisdom trend lines all suggest that could happen, although with nearly 11 days to go, almost anything is possible still.

The change is just stunning from a week ago.

I suspect it's the eye of the storm, but with the price rising and the difficulty falling let's enjoy it while it lasts. But yes Today is going to be another quiet one with around -12% on the Day and the run rate for the period at least -6%. However as you say 11 days to go, but nice to see a downward slope for a change. Picks open in about 24Hrs time so a new prediction challenge awaits. 

Rich