Ok but you guys are talking about brute force of the unluckyest parameter.

You talk about 40.000 years, which is the unluckyest estimate, for example you got 2^160 combinations, but you always estimate for the unluckiest scenario when you go through all parameters and you find the private key on the last combination.


However that is obviously not always the case, you can find the private key on the first combo, just roll the random string generator, and bam you find an address of 1000BTC.

You are not going through the combinations linearly, as in start with a and go to z, so if the private key is zzzzzzzzzzzz, you find it the last.

You actually pick random strings randomly, thus if your private key is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz , then you find it faster, before you need to iterate through all letters.

Furthermore, the probability increases with each iterations since you get more and more addresses, randomly, uncovered.


So if probability on first trial is:       1/(2^160)
on second trial is:       1/(2^160-1)
on third trial is:       1/(2^160-2)

And furthermore, because of variance, you can guess the private key much faster than that.

It's like if you roll a dice and you expect a 5, we know the probability is 1/6, but sometimes you can get 3x 5 in a row.

You also need to factor in consequent lucky permutations! You might guess 1 private address in 40k years, or 3 private addresses one after another!

coinbase has a wallets in circulation chart

it's many millions and the more wallets they put out the cheaper btc gets

so 21 M wallets would be 30 buck btc if you look at the most recent growth of users to value the past 18 months

lot's of new users and value is way down

so recent data shows the more people with btc wallets or btc, the less value it has

now if you got data that shows something the last 18 months use it

the big hype in btc was related to the negative news, the big bust of the pirate

oh btc is used by drug dealers, let me get some

bingo, 50 buck btc went to 1200 btc

then it's been in free fall since

millions of new users and huge value losses

so to say 21m wallets means X value has no basis in reality

you look at the big value bubble it was negative news saying btc was how drug dealers moved money around

bingo lots of newbs buying and price spike

now users is growing in mega millions as coinbase wallet data shows

yet the value is in free fall

so more users puts the value around 30 bucks

if you understand the last 18 months of negative value growth and how more users did nothing to help the value

another shit coin 

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