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Anyone here remembers the top at about 1140 on November 2013? We had a bear market of more than 2 years next, then a painful recovery during 2017, before we were able to make a new higher high. In between we saw real blood on the market with panic deeps. I suspect this is going to be a very long bear market with some real panic moments more. If you want to buy and hold, I have some serious doubts that we are at the bottom. I'm betting there will be more blood and agonizing fear ahead.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
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[snip]
Check the line on this weekly graphic which connects the 5403 usd on 5 november to 5876 on 14 august. I'm betting this support line passing today on about 6000 is going to be breached and we are going to about 5700, the other support line connecting the 6000 low on 5 February and the 5755 low on 25 June.
If this is broken we have the other long term support line on 5526. This should hold or bounce back for a good trade.
If this long term line is breached all hell will break loose. Slowly, for many months, we might end up on the lower very long term support line now on 1700, but that probably will be above 2000 when reached. Might...
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
I agree with you when you said you don't recommend the prediction because the market price movement is not certain. However, I also presume some dip in price before the end of this year but I don't actually the price range but I'm certain it will be deeper than the previous dump in price. Remember the top at about 1140 on 2013? We had a bear market of more than 2 years next, then a painful recovery during 2017, before we were able to make a new higher high. In between we saw real blood on the market with panic deeps. I suspect this is going to be a very long bear market with some real panic moments more. But as the time frame gets longer, predictions are even less certain. Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework. |
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no, you can not come up with any predictions at this point. filling it with ifs and butts and mights is not going to change that. you are making a guess not a prediction. at this point we are at the bottom for a long time, there is no trend, neither bear nor bull because there haven't been any drops or rises for a couple of months now and drawing lines on the chart is not going to change that!
we are currently in an stable/sideways trend where price is going up AND down and day traders are enjoying the short term profits while everyone else is waiting on the sidelines to see what will happen before jumping in.
Day traders can only earn profits if they can make correct predictions. Flipping a coin or just guessing without support on graphics is a recipe for disaster. But I will always be humble when trading bitcoin and add a might. It's about probabilities and not certainties. |
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The trend is bearish. Don't fight the trend.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
I learned to stop fighting the trend years ago. And since we haven't broken out of the succession of lower highs and lower lows yet, I'd agree that we haven't technically broken the downtrend. But you'd have to agree, there's no bear momentum anymore. We've gone sideways for months now. Late shorts have got to be sweating just as much as bagholding bulls. There's really no point talking about trends until we break this sideways range. We are in agreement about the value of the trend. But I still think we are on a bearish trend. We are making lower highs and I'm still standing behind my prediction: about 5960 on the next week. They can even trick us and make a new lower low, even if I'm not betting on it. I'm expecting a nice bounce around 5960. |
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all i see is paradox everywhere in your comments!
you say bitcoin isn't unpredictable then everything else you said is saying it is unpredictable but at the same time you are trying to predict it.
then you go on with saying the past is not the "mirror" and it doesn't have to be repeated but at the same time your arguments are based on the past!
and more...
If you read my posts with some more attention they would be clear. Bitcoin's prices are unpredictable on the long-run, because they can be determined by unpredictable events, like political decisions, economic demand, technological improvement or consensus. But they are predictable on a certain measure on the short-term (one week, one month). The past can only give us some clues about the future, but without certainty. That's why I wrote that bitcoin prices can be predictable on a certain measure. It's because of this that I also get them wrong. |
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Don't see my post as some kind of desire about bitcoin price going down. I think that bitcoin going even lower will create a good opportunity to buy and risk to hold long term, but I'm not glad with this. This isn't about emotions is about reasons. Let's try to see this with a cold and unemotional view, even if we know that this crash is hurting bitcoin and moving away people.
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There are holders who hate bearish people like currently I am. Somehow they think people who post negative things about the price want to influence the price. This is a very stupid thing to think. The market is huge and is moved by thousands of traders. Any post from anyone on bitcointalk won't ever influence the price.
Another reason for hate from holders is that some posts increase their anxiety about being wrong. About this I can't do nothing: hate on.
A last reason is about thinking that a bearish person is someone who is glad with bitcoin going down. Who don't care if this hurts bitcoin and moves people away from it. They think bearish people are bitcoin haters. Far from that: this is about facts and reasons, not about desires and emotions. I'm not glad or willing to see bitcoin's price going down. But our desires and emotions are irrelevant.
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The demand for bitcoin is probably more than 90% trading based and not purchase based. With fear dominating the market people will dump bitcoin like if it was hot potatoes. Look to ethereum...
I don't know if bitcoin is going to go lower than 5000, but I think its past suggest it will and that it will stay there for many months.
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Other posts from me which might be of some interest:
Bitcoin price ins't unpredictable. Bitcoin follow certain patterns shown by past market events. Of course these patterns aren't clear most of the time. So you will get it wrong many times.
But if you only go to the market when you have a plan AND an exit plan and you jump out when your plan is ruined, you will make money. Because there will be many times when things will go according to the plan.
Bitcoin in the past followed a clear rule: if it makes a new high it will triple or quadruple the price, so it can go to 60,000 or 80,000 usd. A very secure moment to buy is always when bitcoin made a new all time high, for crazy that it may sound. Of course, it's not the ideal moment, you should enter before.
But I doubt bitcoin will make a new high or even go above 10,000 during the firth 6 months of 2019.
As I just wrote on another post: "On the past bitcoin market never reacted fast to any crash like this one. It went to the bottom and stayed there for months before beginning another uptrend.".
But I might be wrong. Sometimes the past isn't a mirror of the future. But it's the only objective thing we have to try to see a glimpse of the future.
Of course I don't know if bitcoin will ever make a new high again. That depends on things that now are unpredictable since it would only happen probably on 2020.
The trend is bearish. Don't fight the trend.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
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If the weekly candle ends green in two days this will suggest that we'll have a red negative weekly candle after, but that the first line which is going to pass next week at around 5970 will hold. See the graphic.
But "they" love to trick us. So it might still end up going to the second support line passing at 5600.
My predictions aren't based only on the lines, but the rest are business secrets.
Any breach of the 6620 and clearly the 6700 (this would breach the moving average passing about 6660) will ruin this plan and force a prudent exit even if in the end this probably is going to go anyway to 5600.
Trying to see a glimpse of bitcoin's future is always an exercise on probabilities, we won't ever have certainty. Anyone saying the contrary is a joke.
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
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I think the right position to buy bitcoin is even more. You can open orders at the price of $ 6000 because I think it is very difficult now to be able to reduce prices to $ 5500 again.
Price is unpredictable so hard to judge the current condition of btc price. It may go lower or this time a little increase of price to happen. Yes buy when able to invest at this current rate. Bitcoin price ins't unpredictable. Bitcoin follow certain patterns shown by past market events. Of course these patterns aren't clear most of the time. So you will get it wrong many times. But if you only go to the market when you have a plan AND an exit plan and you jump out when your plan is ruined, you will make money. Because there will be many times when things will go according to the plan. |
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Nobody knows what will happen next year but thereis a possibility that the cryptocurrencymarket will be more positive next year than this year. But it still depend on any positive development that may come next year. Any positive events for the bitcoin will trigger demands from investors whjch can be result into another bullrun.
It is impossible to guess what is going to be the price of Bitcoin. Today the price will start increasing or maybe it will take another two years to increase the price and completely depends on the market how buyers and sellers are reacting to the market. Long term predictions are indeed impossible to make. But short and median term predictions can be made. It's because of this that even if 90% of "investors" lose money, there are 10% who make real money. I would agree with that. Well depends, if you are a trader, then you should base your analysis more on technique. If you are an investor/holder, then it's pretty good one to ask, but hard to answer. We are just small boys here in the whales game. Back to the topic, I think in 2019 we should see higher price than right now, but how much higher is hard to predict. Q1 2019 my guess is $20k+, what's yours? Bitcoin in the past followed a clear rule: if it makes a new high it will triple or quadruple the price, so it can go to 60,000 or 80,000 usd. A very secure moment to buy is always when bitcoin made a new high, for crazy that it may sound. Of course, it's not the ideal moment, you should enter before. But I doubt bitcoin will make a new high or even go above 10,000 during the firth 6 months of 2019. As I just wrote on another post: "On the past bitcoin market never reacted fast to any crash like this one. It went to the bottom and stayed there for months before beginning another uptrend.". But I might be wrong. Sometimes the past isn't a mirror of the future. But it's the only objective thing we have to try to see a glimpse of the future. Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework. |
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On the past bitcoin market never reacted fast to any crash like this one. It went to the bottom and stayed there for months before beginning another uptrend.
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The Op recommendation back on January was a good one. Right now it might still be a good one. This bear market will last for a long time. In any case someone watching outside of the market might have a very good buy opportunity on one year or so.
The OP was on sad mode when wrote this post. Bitconnect example is something absurd thing. He doesn't know the industry My point is that the OP recommendation to sell every bitcoin back on January was a good one. Anyone who adopted it and stayed out of the market made a good move. And I might be wrong, but I think we haven't reach the bottom. And bitcoin market past suggests that when we do reach the bottom we'll stay there for months before a change on the trend and a real break up. |
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A downtrend by definition is a trend, not just a down spike. We went from 19891 to 5755. Calling this a down spike is a little "inaccurate". We are on a bear market, fight the trend at your own risk.
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Hi,
It would be easier to go through your post point by point:
Scam proof:
We are not sure about the information the link you provided reflects as we see a list of failed transactions. Since they weren't successful, the coins are still with you.
Failed transactions:
There must be a specific reason why the transactions failed to go through and we are confident that our support team looked into your case. If you'd like an update here, let us know the ticket number.
Blocked account:
Due to repeated transactions, our security algorithm was triggered causing in your account being blocked. It's actually a good thing because it has been proven effective in stopping malicious activity.
Long response time:
If it's a difficult case with many specifics, our team needs to look into it and exclude possible reasons for failed transactions one by one. However, since you triggered the security algorithm, our priority will be to verify your identity before proceeding further. In any case, we always follow up with our users, please verify your spam and promo folders for a reply.
We are looking forward to your update. Let us know!
Really? I can't login in app. Why? Your "great security team" say that i will have access to minereum token on app last year, just to wait 30 days, and after i ask again "team" say again to wait. Already passed more than a year and i can't even login. Why you not offer users possibility, in case that have there tokens or coins that can not be sent with your app (even if MNE minereum is on supported list) , to export private keys? If you have a low balance they probably will help you, but if you have high balance, you are in deep trouble. Freewallet is a damn scammer. |
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Be very careful with ETH. Like other altcoins, it has crashed way more than bitcoin. This up reaction might be exhausted. The trend is down. It has a very attractive support price at 140-145 usd.
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Every dollar that is made by someone, someone will lose money.
On a bear market like the current bitcoin one, traders only make money when other traders lose it. The one who buys will lose. It's indeed a zero-sum game. But on a bullish market everyone can win, as long as the money keeps coming. |
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By definition every asset will reach its bottom, at the very least zero.
If past markets events can teach us anything, bitcoin has a lot of time to stay low and at prices lower than this. All past bitcoin bear markets lasted for more than 1 year.
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There are events like political decisions that are completely unpredictable. If a major country decides to ban exchanges or there are an european agreement on doing this, the price would crash like if the world was ending. Against this, we can't do much.
Bitcoin has already almost a decade, I doubt it will become mainstream. And the limitation on transactions is another issue affecting it.
But if there are no political problems, it might survive as a marginal asset with high value because of its scarcity.
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