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You are absolutely right, a breakout is likely to happen has happened and BTC could revisit 38K hit 80k.
ftfy  |
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Ethereum makes an ATH and we're sitting here waiting for Biden's inauguration to break out of this triangle? Silly bitcoin  |
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Well, it's a new week. Bitcoin doubled from ~10k to 20k in 10 weeks, and then doubled from 20k to 40k in the last 5 weeks. Will the trend continue? Who knows, but the chart looks bullish af. I think we've got at least a leg to go before a serious correction.
Peace and love and hodling to all of you.
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People who are very very bear about bitcoin are still a bit part of the market as well and also the forum. I do not agree with them, I think bitcoin will not be done anytime soon, and it is still recovering as well, there is no way bitcoin will be crashing to 3k-5k levels ever again, that is too far out and we are not going there.
However even if I do not agree with them, I do want them to write here whatever they want for two main reasons, one of them is the fact that we should hear what want to say, we should not silence people, if they want to say something about a price prediction, that shouldn't really be something to be silenced about, it is a tiny deal. Secondly I would want them to write because there are bear people in the market as well, people who short bitcoin too, so I would like to learn their perspective in order to know why they think that way.
I have no power to silence anyone, even if I wanted to. But OK, I will stop being a dick and let bears be bears There is some reasonable chance of this playing out, or it could literally be broken while I post this. We all know Bitcoin loves triangles. I don't think it changes my prediction much if at all. Zooming out, the daily chart looks a lot like the weekly chart from 2015 into the beginning of 2017.  Edit: someone merit me, dammit |
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now Bear market.
I laughed. |
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$5k?? is this a joke? When the 2017 bull run started did BTC ever go back to $300? Nope, it managed to make it to $1900 in its first correction, nowhere near $300 which would be about equivalent to BTC hitting $5k now.
It's unlikely to hit $25k again, let alone $5k. In fact it looks like $30k very well may have been the bottom of this correction (it could go lower but currently strongly bounced up to $34k) in which case sub-$30k price will likely never happen again.
$5k....lol
It's almost like people don't know there was a halving... |
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I find it hilarious all the people saying we're not going to hit $50k. Bitcoin doesn't just break a multi-year ATH and then piddle out at 2.5x. Anyone who knows knows we're going to see 6 digits, probably this year. The only question is whether it gets there like the 2013 chart, the 2017 chart, or something entirely new. If this correction goes into multiple weeks, it will start to resemble 2017. If this week closes green (personally I believe it will but I could easily be wrong), then the 2013 model is more in play. I don't care either way, it's all upside since I did most of my accumulating under 20k |
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I would say buying at 2013 and starting a newbie account now, does seem like not credible at all. By the way I am not against the idea, bitcoin is a volatile and decentralized currency with nearly unregulated market, at least a market that doesn't ban you from buying anytime you want or selling neither. It means we could literally have 8k or 80k in October, both of them are quite possible and nobody can say that it will be impossible, obviously speaking we will definitely have that.
What I do not really understand is that why do people have specific numbers, everyone throws out a number and I wonder why those numbers. For example, why 80k here? why not 110k? Why not 50k? Why specifically 80k? I live my life with two ideas, I either say bitcoin will go up, or will say it will go down, I rarely say it will go down. So that means for me, there is no specific number, it will go up, and it will be something more than what it is today, that's all I can say.
lol. You do know you can...click on someone's account and see when it was registered, right? Also, you'll notice I never said I had credibility If we go straight up from here, we hit the top of the logarithmic trend channel at about $70k. Giving it a few more weeks to a couple months, plus the possibility of a slight overshoot, I think $80k is a decent target. @thecodebear only time will tell. I do believe that if we end up hitting the $70-80k range by Spring, the bull may have to go dormant for a while. That just means a nice juicy accumulation zone around $20-40k until, maybe, the end of the year. |
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I am not going to lie I am quite scared. It is going up extremely quickly with ATH daily or even hourly. It seems well over heated
100k was my lowest prediction for this cycle but I am concerned it may crash before than. When it dumps its going to dump hard
Yeah, it is definitely starting to overheat in a big way. These last few weekly candles are about the same size as the ones in Nov-Dec. 2017 on a log scale. I don't think it can keep this up much longer, which is why I think we're going to see a pretty big blow-off top quite soon actually. The huge backing of institutional demand is definitely a game-changer though. |
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Yeah I could totally see a double top happening this year. Though it won't be anything like 2013 in which there was a full on ~80% crash that was just short lived compared to other ~80% drops.
With how much institutional demand there is and how little supply there is, plus gradually growing retail demand as well (especially with Paypal recently joined), this thing is going much higher soon. The only thing that is gonna cause a correction is institutions decide it has gone up too far too fast and they wait for it to drop before getting back in at better prices. It does feel like price could hit $70k-$80k in March or April (I dunno about 6 weeks), at which point I do think institutions would get scared of a bubble forming and they'd wait for cheaper prices. Those that view it as protection against inflation and a store of value wouldn't sell at this point as they are holding for many years, but those that view it as a powerful trade to ride will sell to buy back lower, helping the correction along.
In such a case we'd see a decent correction and then institutions would start coming back in lower, sucking up even more retail and whale supply. Because that institutional demand will still very much be there, I don't think this correction would last more than a few months total from top, to bottom, back to previous top. After reaching a much higher floor than where this started at $10k, they'd feel better about pushing the price over $100k for another peak towards the end of the year probably. I see this sort of dynamic playing out repeatedly over the next few years - a few months of institutional buy-in, then let it fall back down to a new higher base price for a few months, then another buy-in, and repeat.
This is exactly what I see happening as well. In a more "sane" world, the correction at $35k would have lasted a few weeks, but instead it turned into panic selling and rebuying. Don't underestimate the stimulus checks/money printing, and I think we may have another (bigger) round in the US to coincide with the early top I'm predicting |
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Good for you, I will assume that you have your bags filled many years ago at a cheap price.
I wish, in the past I've been too focused on cashing out instead of staying loyal through the bear markets  And then personal reasons prevented me from getting very involved in 2017. But on this one I'm happy with myself for starting to buy in late July when I saw that nice breakout signal. If you check my history from a few posts back I did accurately predict in 2017 that the low would be ~$3k on the following bear market. |
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Everyone expects a replay of 2017 so this would be a good way for the market to juke expectations. Think more like 2013 with a big peak early in the year and then a consolidation leading into another $200k+ rally at the end of the year. The current rally feels like it has too much momentum to be stopped before $70-80k.
Credibility? Not much but I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013 and I've been watching the market for a long time. Just putting it out there.
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I like the idea but I still think there is plenty of room for retail "investors" to FOMO in and create a boom/bust. They will just be fighting over a much smaller number of coins as so many have been taken off the market by the big guys, which will drive the price up to over-inflated highs. The big guys won't be buying at those prices and whales will start to dump/take profit, triggering the typical panic selling response.
I know most people have "heard" of Bitcoin by now, but back in 2017 you didn't have Joe Rogan reading Cash App ads every week and talking about "stacking sats", PayPal putting crypto front and center in their advertising, etc. etc. and you also didn't have free $$$ raining from the sky.
A LOT more people will wade in now who were skeptical about it before or didn't see it as legitimate enough last time around.
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The mistake people make is that they think the price of Bitcoin has everything to do with the value of Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin has more to do with human psychology, which follows predictable patterns.
Depending on how high this rally goes, $5k could be the relevant support level. The important thing to know is that there will be a bubble, there will be a crash, there will be an immediate rebound, and there will be a long, slow, excruciating bear market as the price gradually slips lower and lower. At some point, there will be a capitulation where the price briefly spikes down to a level no one could POSSIBLY imagine because they all jumped on board during the bull market and thought it would go up forever.
These facts have nothing to do with the value or usefulness of Bitcoin which we all know is great. They have to do with the psychology of humans and traders which haven't changed since the beginning of time. That's why every Bitcoin bubble looks the same.
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Anyone who's been around since 2013 or earlier knows we will be back to $3k eventually.
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lol GDAX is so soft... price went from $10 under China (buy) to $10 over China (sell) within about 3 minutes. Very profitable to trade there.
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Mat, the RSI on your chart is showing massive hidden bull div. Not saying 790 wasn't the top because level 1 thinking would suggest it is. But selling needs to pick up in a big way soon to confirm.
No. There is massive bear divergence on the last few sequence of tops, confirmed by the RSI putting in M top structure. Furthermore, that red RSI line (the 'VIP Line'), has proven a critical level for the whole of the pump. Every single leg up, has involved a breach of that line, the only times we have had any sort of correction, has also involved a breach of that line in the opposite direction. I would watch that level like a hawk. What you are calling 'massive bull divergence', is what they call 'hidden divergence'. I don't pay much attention to hidden divergence. Lol, thanks for telling me exactly what I wrote. The point is that the bearish divergence already resolved itself with both price and the RSI making a lower high. The hidden bullish divergence (signal of trend continuation) has not resolved itself yet. But divergences aren't everything as we've seen this whole rally. The trick to Bitcoin trading is actually child's play because the market gives you so many beautiful triangle consolidations. Trade the triangle breaks = profit. Stoploss at breakout point in case of a fakeout. So the correct play was to buy at 455-465, and sell at around 755 when the triangle broke down. It sounds easy in retrospect but it's exactly what I did so it must not be too hard. "Buying the dips" or pullbacks is actually not the best strategy in a rally like this because the price never reaches your targets, until it blows past them as the bubble pops. |
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Mat, the RSI on your chart is showing massive hidden bull div. Not saying 790 wasn't the top because level 1 thinking would suggest it is. But selling needs to pick up in a big way soon to confirm.
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Finex has been pulling at the reins all day, but China holding back... at least the 5k wall on Huobi was eaten, hopefully we can go up now. It's a very interesting tug of war, but it's painfully obvious who's pulling the strings...
Who do you think is pulling the strings? The Chinese? Well if that's so maybe it is the so called "Mining Mafia" I hear about so often on this forum that is located there lol China is in full control. They say up, we go up. And vice versa. If you sit and stare at the charts you can watch Finex and Stamp getting smacked around. |
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