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Yes since 2023, it's now taxed in Portugal if you hold for less than 1 year (until 2022 was tax free, even less than 1 year).
Exactly, it's similar as Germany. However Portugal has one more huge advantage : NHR (non habitual resident) tax-scheme. You get this statut for 10years you are tax free on your foreign income (dividends, interests, royalties). Kind of temporary "territorial tax scheme".
Until 2022 private foreign pensions (for retired people) was tax free too under this scheme. Now it's taxed 10% due to other EU countries pressure (for the new applicants).
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After 1 year holding. Currently it's still Portugal the best option in EU regarding crypto taxation. |
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Nice graph, but, imho, TA would be of less value in the next period.
Volatility in the markets is increasing (and rightfully so). Three mo ago DXY was at 114, now at around 104, indices are going up and down 600-800 points a day in a random fashion.
My feel is that macro is driving prices now: there are larger factors involved in comparison with our usual dynamics.
My feel is that in the next 12-18 mo the price of bitcoin will be completely random inasmuch as a fluctuation between 15 (hopefully, not below) and 50K.
Agree with you. And it's not super "new". Macro drives almost everything since a while. Hope BTC will be decorrelated one day, but probably not for now or in a near future. Macro + till the majority of people will keep to use/consider Bitcoin as a speculative asset, instead of an alternative monetary system, it will stay like this. We need much more time. But we can still make new ATHs during this transition. Hopefully. |
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2. An alternative possibility: In 2014, Mt Gox went out on Feb 24 when btc was at $546. Initially, btc was not affected much, paradoxically, but eventually went down to $175 within about 10 mo.
Therefore, if FTX=MtGox (which is probably not the case), then the bottom would be 10 mo away (by Sept-Oct 2023) at a horrific number that i don't want to post, but you can do the math.
I currently give 10-20% chance to this scenario.
For me it seems irrelevant to compare with the 2014 situation, especially regarding the timing. We had the ATH in december 2013, it seems logical that we didn't get the final bottom 2-3 months after (in february or march 2014). When Mt Gox went out in 2014, we were approximately at "only" 50% down from the ATH. A the same time BTC did x100 up on 2013... Mt Gox or not, regarding the different cycles, BTC will have continued to fall during (the whole?) 2013. With your example, it mean we would get a Bottom almost 2 years after the previous ATH, or even 2,5years after if we consider that the bullish cycle ended in may 2021 (as we did a double top). |
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Recently, I was thinking if the BTC ATH would have been higher without the COVID ?
You were thinking? Well that's a good start. JJG, I am not talking to you anymore so just ignore/block my profile I will do the same too. You are and act just like a fucking kid. Who thinks he knows everything better than everyone, what a joke. Except making your blablabla monologue with everybody, you don't do anything else. Most of what you say is just irrelevant and full of stupid EGO. Especially when you are wrong most of the time. What a pity. The only time you would be able to be more valuable, when your EGO was again here on this WO was the bet your proposed. But like a donkey, you pissed on yourself. And just tried and trying to find all the excuses you can find, because you are not able to admit when you are just wrong or unable to do. Because of your EGO or your stupidity. Or both. Bye. but if you ignore JJG, chartbuddy and exphorizon the wo is a pretty fast read. Chartbuddy already. JJG too. More efficient, more fast and less bullshit on the WO then, no ?  |
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Recently, I was thinking if the BTC ATH would have been higher without the COVID ?
You were thinking? Well that's a good start. JJG, I am not talking to you anymore so just ignore/block my profile I will do the same too. You are and act just like a fucking kid. Who thinks he knows everything better than everyone, what a joke. Except making your blablabla monologue with everybody, you don't do anything else. Most of what you say is just irrelevant and full of stupid EGO. Especially when you are wrong most of the time. What a pity. The only time you would be able to be more valuable, when your EGO was again here on this WO was the bet your proposed. But like a donkey, you pissed on yourself. And just tried and trying to find all the excuses you can find, because you are not able to admit when you are just wrong or unable to do. Because of your EGO or your stupidity. Or both. Bye. |
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When we were bouncing around at $18K I was telling myself that I think the next leg down will be the one to buy. As we dip into the 15's I can't help but think this is the dip people have been waiting for. There's still a ton of uncertainty and even more bad news on the horizon, but I think we've gone low enough in the short term (once this Genesis stuff is cleared up). I think we're likely to start seeing a runup before the halving soon, with a small crash as we go into the halving and people cash out profits, followed by the start of the next bull run. That's how it's gone in the past anyway.
Mostly agree with you. Just the point related to the "crash" before the 2020 halving... Hmm It was caused by the express covid crash... Unexpected and rare (hopefully) situation. Not sure if it's relevant to compare with this for 2024, but let see. We can have expected 'unexpected' any time now, that's for sure. Makes you either paranoid or philosophical about life and everything else, like having or not having more funds. Sure, everything can happen any time now. Maybe with more probability that before. But still. If we stay rational and statistical, i don't see lot of probably to have new war, or new worldwide pandemic or other crazy things, every year or even every 5/10 years. Past and history never proved that till now. |
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Recently, I was thinking if the BTC ATH would have been higher without the COVID ?
I don't think I saw this argument on the WO discussion.
We can probably (easily) admit that we wouldn't have seen this crash below 4K$ in march 2020. But at the same time, we would have seen more than 69K$ at the top ?
FED, all central banks all around the world just printed printed brrrrrrrr without any limit or any plan and gave lot a fresh money for Wall Street and all investors to (over) speculate. This situation (at this level) didn't happen since decades.
I know some members here are not agree on it, but the fact is that BTC (or the crypto industry in general) is currently still fucking linked with the tech (nasdaq) movements (except for some specific issues and mess like with LUNA, Celsius, or FTX).
Without this free no limit money, probably the stocks and Nasdaq especially wouldn't go this high till end 2021 / before the war. And probably the same for BTC.
It's hard to say, but maybe this allows us to relativize a little bit. Although most of us (myself included) thought that we would go higher than "only" x3.5 from 2017 ATH.
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When we were bouncing around at $18K I was telling myself that I think the next leg down will be the one to buy. As we dip into the 15's I can't help but think this is the dip people have been waiting for. There's still a ton of uncertainty and even more bad news on the horizon, but I think we've gone low enough in the short term (once this Genesis stuff is cleared up). I think we're likely to start seeing a runup before the halving soon, with a small crash as we go into the halving and people cash out profits, followed by the start of the next bull run. That's how it's gone in the past anyway.
Mostly agree with you. Just the point related to the "crash" before the 2020 halving... Hmm It was caused by the express covid crash... Unexpected and rare (hopefully) situation. Not sure if it's relevant to compare with this for 2024, but let see. |
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Just had a let down. Bought my Bitcoin in 2013 on Bitstamp with full verification as German citizen living in Germany. Now that my bank account is almost emptied because I have no job and no income, I wanted to cash out 3-4K to have some cash for the next months. Bitstamp asked for proof of where I got my crypto from to be able to cash out. So I showed em the buy history on my Bitstamp account. Now they asking me where I got that money in 2013 to buy the Bitcoins. How the hell can I proof money I saved over a time span of 10 years. For example by selling your old 2nd hand stuff etc. Ridiculous. Gonna try Binance now.
Just go to KRAKEN. I always using this for cash-out since many many years, with big amounts. If you are full verified (last level) and have SEPA account you get the money in few hours, or maximum the day after (working days). I never had any trouble, or questions or whatever in any of them. Limit is 10M.$ per day (yes 10 millions). |
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The only good thing of this whole situation is we purged all these idiots and scammer. Maybe we still have to purge a bit again. But after this pain and purge completed, we can start to go up again in a more healthy way. And hopefully for a new ATH in 2024/25 latest, and a nice rally in 2023, like in 2019. Let's see. PS : wait, wait... no it's also a good thing for JJG to not bet, otherwise he would lost 1BTC Yes.. You are a waffler.. So stop trying to act as if you wanted to bet when you did not.. You had many reasons that you did not want to bet, and if we were to start to come close, I am sure that you would have come up with more excuses to waffle. You disingenuine fuck twat. Come on JJG... Are you serious ? Pathetic If you didn't lose your mind (or something else), it's YOU coming to me to make this bet. I proposed you, many times 1 BTC, we are not in kinder garden. You declined many times, asked me for some more time.. ask to find other people and all the usual blabla you are doing here. Even one trustable member here was agree to be the escrow. So please, stop your bullshit, thanks.You always act like you are better than the other one on this space, but sadly not and I am sorry to say. For your long monologues Bla-bla ... I admit, you are good. It's really really crazy to not admit the facts, but I am not surprised regarding your EGO. Maybe would be better to minus your EGO and reviews all your last affirmations, predictions etc.. because I even cannot find when you were right for the last time. Seem too far... So better if you come down a bit. For everybody. |
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The only good thing of this whole situation is we purged all these idiots and scammer. Maybe we still have to purge a bit again. But after this pain and purge completed, we can start to go up again in a more healthy way. And hopefully for a new ATH in 2024/25 latest, and a nice rally in 2023, like in 2019. Let's see. PS : wait, wait... no it's also a good thing for JJG to not bet, otherwise he would lost 1BTC |
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Place your bet on what people would do once the trust for govt is low, and fiat is inflated as hell in recession. Where they'll put their money into?
We will see proper use of bitcoin when we will have a repeat of 2008. Demand for Gold and Bitcoin is going to sky rocket. Long term yes. Next 6-12 months most likely no. Study the fed rate raises done by bush leading up to the 2008 wipeout March 2004 to July 2007 that is 3 years and 4 months before they reversed and they reversed too late Interesting point. However I dont think that we really can compare what's happened in 2008 and the situation now. FED will most probably increase the rates of course, but for still 1 year and 3/4 more (at least?) ? I don't think so. Probably 2 more, maximum 3 and in a shorter time. Regarding the timeframe, I see a little probability to extend to 8-12 months.. but more faster, like until Q1 2023. |
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CPI not great. Might take out the lows at some point soon.
This might set off the acute crisis, credit markets were already breaking before this. Interesting to see what happens in the UK.
+1 CPI 8.2%... Probably another increase of 0.75 (or 1.00) by the FED in 1 month... History will repeats again and we will see a final capitulation with a bottom between middle november and december 2023 ? We will know soon.. |
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So JJG ? Do you need one month to make your calculation for 2 basic bets ? Or are you just waiting we drop to have an excuse to skip the bet (that you proposed) ?  |
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@JJG
-When you are "decided" send me a PM.
- I'm not interested for 13K$ level, that's why i didnt talk about. We can bet for 15K and 10K-
- I will no go below what I proposed for the %
- I don't go too if you just want to bet that small amount. If you reconsider to a higher amount and/or find some 'bet partners" let me know
- I am not a gambler but when someone is swagger (and I have in mind my probabilities) I assume and go in.
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JJG.. I think we start to annoy the other WO members. I am convinced that my explanations are clear so no need to write 1 page more on it. I want to bet, but as a real BTC Hodler gentleman. So with REAL amount, not 100K satoshi, come on... you should be retrograde from "legendary" to "newbies" statut by saying that. About the odds, i would be agree on : 1/1 : 15K 1/9 : sub 10K. I told you 10%+, i didnt say 25%. so not 1/10 but 1/9. You seem to have a better "edge" as you said between 1.5 to 4.5% for that level. Give a decent amount to bet please, otherwise it's more than boring. We can find a middle btw 1 BTC and 0.001 BTC... Don't you have bull balls? |
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It is quite unlikely that the amounts would get any higher if I am involved in the bet, but if other members want to get into our bet, then the amounts could get higher, and maybe even we could reach gallianooo's wish for a 1 BTC bet, but really I am suspecting that he is proposing a 1 BTC bet because he is trying to get out of actually making a real bet.. .that's my tentative speculation why he proposed (I was going to say "that dweeb" but I will be nicer, for the moment in order to keep the dialogue open.. . hahahahaha) a 1 BTC bet amount. blablabla.
JJG... You really speak TOO MUCH, and you are moving around... Yes, i said 10%+ chance for 10K$ below and obv. we dont have the bottom yet. Then YOU started to talk for a bet. You talked as well about 14K$, then bit more, but not on the 16-17K$. I just did an average of what you said (16.5+14)/2=15,250 We are both in BTC since almost 8years or more. Come on, we are not at the kinder garden to bet the snack break... I'm quite disappointed of what you said after being kind of swagger but wants to bet some peanuts. So maybe next time, stay away on these kinds of affirmation and proposition. Have a good one' |
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You also have the BITCOIN BAR there in city center : https://www.facebook.com/bitcoin.bar/But they dont accept bitcoin payement (or any crypto) This is all the logical of this country. The same regarding the Satoshi Statue.. and on the other side, still "middle age" regarding BTC (or crypto). At least, the only recent progress : Government put from this year a 15% flat tax on BTC gain (or crypto in general), with a penalty tax amnesty for the last 5 years (after it's prescription there),if you declare all your BTC gain for 2022 and the past 5 years. You have better options in Europe, but still correct regarding most of them. |
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By the way, I have been continuing to think about a potential bet threshold.
We both agree that the odds of going below $10k are pretty low, but if we pick a higher price threshold then maybe we could agree on a bet? something like $14k. Do you think that the odds of going below $14k are greater than 50% in the next 6 months? I might be willing to take the other side of that bet. We could move the price up too... I would not be willing to take any bets that are in the $16k or 17k range because I do not consider the odds to be be very far outside of 50/50 territories.. even though I have not exactly worked out my own numbers.. but when we start to get into the $15ks and lower, we might be getting into possible bettable territory in regards to how much our opinions differ, and if our opinions do not differ enough to figure out a bet, then either one of us is not willing to stand behind our proclamations or maybe our opinions are not really significantly different, even though from my perspective, you do seem to currently quite a bit more weight (and likelihood) to downward possibilities than I seem to be.
You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$. Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ? I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ? JJG won't bet you on that number. Neither would I . But I should not assume what he will do. He can type for himself.  It's what he said. Able to go more than 14K$ but not 16-17K, so we. are around 15.5, or 15.250$ to be exact. between 14K and 16.5K average. |
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