2011: Gox Hacked & Trading Frozen
2013: Gox Lagged & Trading Frozen
2014: Gox Fucked & Trading Frozen

I admit that the China news caused a depression in the price, from $1000+ to $800-$900. But, in Bitcoin terms, this is hardly a 'crash.' There's been other small blips, like the Silk Road shutdown, but it was pretty obvious these were bear traps from the start.

Question being, can Bitcoin have a legitimate crash without a Goxxing?

I have a feeling you're right...

Didn't the last halving happen in December 2012?  April 2013 wasn't too far after that.

Granted, there were other things going on, but I absolutely think that reward halving has an effect - even if it's largely psychological at first.

Before we see 5000$, we will see double digits again (not GOX).
BTC-e will default in less than 365 days.

im holding my btc until the next block reward halving.

This.  Absolutely this.  If the US, or China, wants to take over Bitcoin, freeze its value relative to dollars (or Yuan), and issue as many bitcoins as they want just the same way they issue their usual currency?  A call to butterfly labs or somebody who can reverse engineer one of their chips, a gag order to prevent them from talking about it (if they even know about it), another call to Intel or somebody with a huge chip foundry, cut one big check, and done.  Anybody whose client rejects blocks where more bitcoins are created than their client thinks is kosher then finds themselves on the losing side of a chain fork.  And the updated client is available from your friendly neighborhood government offices.

Let me just explain how i came to that conclusion:

the difficulty is currently 1.18 billion

so assuming a 30% difficulty jump every 10 days the difficulty will be 1.535 billion on the 4th when the machine ships

jan. 4th-14th difficulty = 1.535 billion = .6 btc mined (.06 btc per day x 10 days)
jan 15th-25th difficulty = 1.995 billion = .4 btc mined (.04 btc per day x 10 days)
jan 26th-feb 4th difficulty = 2.594 billion = .26 btc mined (.026btc per day x 10 days)
feb 5th-15th difficulty = 3.372 billion = .17 btc mined ( .017 btc per day x 10 days)
feb 16th-26th difficulty = 4.384 billion =.11 btc mined (.011btc per day x 10 days)
feb 27th- march 7th difficulty =5.7 billion =.07 btc mined (.007 btc per day x 10 days)
at which point the miner would start costing more in electricity then its producing if the price stays what it is now.

to sum up:
miner cost 3btc
miner produces 1.6 btc in its lifetime

or maybe it has something to do with the fact that, assuming a 30% difficulty increase every 10 days, this miner costing 3btc will only generated about 2 btc before it is no longer profitable