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21  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy now or regret later. on: November 25, 2013, 08:44:21 AM
Taking a break from the Troll Box on BTC-E?  Wink

What makes you so confident?

Well, let's see.  It's gone up 10x every year so far, so yeah, we must be idiots to think that it might do it again this year.
That doesn't mean you have to buy at or near the current peak...

If bitcoin is at $10,000 next year, I'm pretty sure I'm not going to care whether I bought it at $812 or $780.

If bitcoins are $320 on Christmas day, you would rather have waited!
22  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2013, 08:42:43 AM
+1 we haven't had a real crash for a long time.

Miners, y u no sell?

(They will eventually)
23  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2013, 07:07:12 AM
On this tiny volume, nothing is support. I'd put support down somewhere around $765 now -- not too low. The lack of real dumps yesterday made me bullish. The lack of real buying pressure makes me bearish now.

With the warnings in the press in China, China's waiting for a signal from Gox to move up. Gox is waiting for a signal from China. This likely won't end that well.

24  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2013, 07:00:18 AM
It's Monday here. Market is asleep.
25  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2013, 06:13:32 AM
Sorry, I don't want to see a mass adoption bubble right now. Too early. I'd rather have 5-figure coins in the future than a mad gold rush now and millions of Chinese losing their shirts in a massive bubble.

I wonder how one slows down a bubble though. We all know when one is forming, but we are more or less powerless to stop it. So what to do?

Dump every time mania gets out of control. Eventually sentiment turns. Dangerous game though.
26  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2013, 04:56:47 AM
Sorry, I don't want to see a mass adoption bubble right now. Too early. I'd rather have 5-figure coins in the future than a mad gold rush now and millions of Chinese losing their shirts in a massive bubble.

That would be nice, but is it mathematically possible when everyone finds out about Bitcoin at once?

If everyone finds out at once, that is your cue to exit. I'd rather have a few more years of slow 10x growth first.

BTW CCTV news and radio is already running segments advising people not to buy bitcoins, that it is too risky. This is the start. If people do lose their shirts in  a massive "choo choo to 2k" bubble and subsequent pop, it will be a very long winter -- and the excuse the government here needs to regulate.

Call me greedy, but a 2k cash grab isn't really what I want for bitcoin. I was hoping for bigger things. Double top at $900 is probably the best scenario right now.

A good crash now, test *real* support, let the exchanges work on improving some more and some more infrastructure being put in place, and we can be very wealthy early adopters. Alternative is 50% or more of us get shafted in a few weeks.
27  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2013, 04:50:40 AM
Sorry, I don't want to see a mass adoption bubble right now. Too early. I'd rather have 5-figure coins in the future than a mad gold rush now and millions of Chinese losing their shirts in a massive bubble.
28  Economy / Speculation / Re: Forbes article on bitcoin on: November 25, 2013, 03:55:24 AM
This is all a bit off base.

A) There aren't many sellers accepting bitcoin in China yet -- that part is just not true. We're trying to change that, but don't get sucked into believing BTC is everywhere (yet).

B) The government doesn't care about Bitcoin too much yet -- the one thing they do care about above all else is "social stability" (read: "keeping power"). Anything that potentially destabilises that is a problem. A huge gold-rush like move to BTC would potentially be very damaging if lots of people lost their shirts in a crash. As such, the government is already trying to damp the flames a little. Recent CCTV and radio reports advise people not to rush and buy BTC, that it is unstable and dangerous.

The best thing that can happen now is a long consolidation. This constant push upward, potentially through 2k, will cause a spectacular crash with some potentially very negative consequences for all of us. We all need a bit of a breather.
29  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arbitrage on: November 25, 2013, 03:05:48 AM
Hi,

Some people have been finding ways to arbitrage successfully on rmbtb.com.

As a foreigner, you can get an Alipay account, but you can't withdraw more than CNY 2k without being verified (which requires a Chinese ID).

However, some people have been able to buy products/services on Taobao using their Alipay account but indicating us as the payee. This is fine for us; we charge a 0.5% fee. On Taobao you should be able to find money transfer services (e.g. PerfectMoney). We are not affiliated with these in any way, and don't offer any recommendations.
30  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Flying to China to Arbitrage 100-500k on: November 25, 2013, 03:03:42 AM
Hi,

Some people have been finding ways to arbitrage successfully on rmbtb.com.

As a foreigner, you can get an Alipay account, but you can't withdraw more than CNY 2k without being verified (which requires a Chinese ID).

However, some people have been able to buy products/services on Taobao using their Alipay account but indicating us as the payee. This is fine for us; we charge a 0.5% fee. On Taobao you should be able to find money transfer services (e.g. PerfectMoney). We are not affiliated with these in any way, and don't offer any recommendations.
31  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: price diff in excahnges on: November 25, 2013, 03:02:36 AM
Hi,

Some people have been finding ways to arbitrage successfully on rmbtb.com.

As a foreigner, you can get an Alipay account, but you can't withdraw more than CNY 2k without being verified (which requires a Chinese ID).

However, some people have been able to buy products/services on Taobao using their Alipay account but indicating us as the payee. This is fine for us; we charge a 0.5% fee. On Taobao you should be able to find money transfer services (e.g. PerfectMoney). We are not affiliated with these in any way, and don't offer any recommendations.
32  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: Looking for Trading Partner in China on: November 25, 2013, 03:00:12 AM
You are welcome to trade via rmbtb.com.

You can sell coins directly on the exchange -- no need to use a third-party. You can withdraw via buying products on Taobao. You should be able to find sellers offering e.g. perfectmoney services that can wire money through.
33  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 22, 2013, 10:06:03 AM
Bitstamp's on it's way to a new ATH, whereas Gox is still battling around the 750 mark... good time to transfer from Gox to Stamp?

Maybe the reason it's like that is because you're not the only one  Wink
34  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 22, 2013, 08:05:39 AM
Looking healthy. These little drops would have caused chaos back in the day but their swatted like flys now!

Looking healthy?
Some are just waiting till enough bids accumulate and they can sell 200-500BTC without crashing the price. Rinse and repeat.

+1

This is far from healthy. One week ago -- only 7 days ago, we were at $400. And now we are on the wrong side of what will look to many like a big bubble peak and subsequent bull trap.

35  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 22, 2013, 06:33:30 AM
All your bottoms are dumping.
36  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 22, 2013, 06:27:18 AM
This place is like an assylum for tourettes sufferers sometimes..... Lots of people running around randomly shouting "BOTTOM" at every opportunity.

37  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 22, 2013, 04:13:38 AM
Bitcoin is being remarkably forgiving today -- a beautifully formed crash and subsequent bull trap peak, on lower volume. Get off at this station for some light refreshments before the moon shot. The next station is way back, and on fire.




It's approaching an ATH on Bitstamp with a tonne of buy orders behind it and you're calling this a bull trap??

If you think this is a healthy precursor to a bull run, be my guest, but don't say I didn't warn you.

In fact the tape has been painted all the way up. Just go with the flow. There's no exuberance here, just a dream of what might have been.

38  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 22, 2013, 04:00:33 AM
Bitcoin is being remarkably forgiving today -- a beautifully formed crash and subsequent bull trap peak, on lower volume. Get off at this station for some light refreshments before the moon shot. The next station is way back, and on fire.

39  Economy / Speculation / Re: China is not participating in this "Dead Cat Bounce" on: November 21, 2013, 07:27:23 AM
During a dead cat bounce to the amount of bids on all the major exchanges suddenly double in fiat value? Do 20k btc walls form above the low? Did this happen in April?

Yes, we had a bullish run to $160.

If it's obvious, it's not a trap.
40  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 21, 2013, 06:44:48 AM
This is mighty impressive.

he said, looking down?
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